The Return of The Comiskey

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 5:03 pm

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Just a bit ago, I was able to track down our old pal, Jim Comiskey. Given the current state of affairs, I thought it might be fun to get his take on everything from the S&P, to the metals to the latest report of Mad Cow Disease in California.

Ole Jim didn't disappoint. To listen to the podcast in its entirety, just click the microphone icon to the left. While you're listening, here are some other items that I found relevant as we passed through the day.

First up, a story from late yesterday about China bypassing the dollar and using gold to purchase Iranian oil. Santa's pretty worked up about it and rightfully so. He discussed this situation and more during his latest with Eric King. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/24_Sinclair_-_Shorts_Now_Trapped_%26_Gold_Could_Gap_Up_to_$3,000.html. The article that brought all of this to the fore can be found here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/04/22/the-best-reason-in-the-world-to-buy-gold/. And here are my thoughts from last night:

"The question you need to ask is: If true, what will the Iranians do with the gold they receive in exchange for oil? They'll most likely convert it into some type of currency which they can then exchange for gasoline, food, etc. Which currency would they convert it to? Dollars? No. Euro? Doubtful. Pounds. Not a chance. Yen? Be serious. Maybe they trade the gold to Russia in exchange for wheat, fuel and weapons?
I dunno. Maybe this story has it all wrong and they don't take gold at all? Why not just take renminbi for your crude and begin building reserves in it instead of dollars? Much easier than shipping gold around and an account at the PBoC is a lot safer than storing your gold at home. Ask Gaddafi or Saddam about that one."

As a follow-up, you should also read this interesting note from Izabella Kaminska at the Financial Times:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/

Next, there were two items I found today from Charles Hugh Smith. This first piece is about the "disappearance" of money. You've likely heard me state before that gold provides protection for your wealth and the silver provides you protection to purchase basic necessities. This article is along those lines:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril12/when-money-vanishes4-12.html

This second piece comes via Chris Martenson's blog and it follows on the theme of fudged and manipulated government data. As we barrel toward another BLSBS report next week, I thought this was timely:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/what-data-can-we-trust/74361

Oh, and this is fun. Santa posted this link earlier. It's a map of every U.S. police department that has the authorization/capability to launch and use aerial drones. How nice. God Bless the U.S.A. Land of the Monitored and Home of the Surveilled.

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214769660919529725423.0004bde31d74fe6eb1ece&hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=m&ll=45.336702,-110.039062&spn=58.987964,112.5&z=3&source=embed

Next, here's a video from Paul Coghlan. Paul is one of Andrew Maguire's business partners and he operates his own trading service. He publishes these updates daily for his subscribers and offered this one to all Turdites as an introduction to his services. Pretty good stuff!

http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3039

I owe you some charts, too, so here they are. First up, let's look at gold. We are still being pressed lower by the downtrend line but we are getting close to what should be very strong support between 1600 and 1620. We might have bottomed yesterday but I don't think so. My gut tells me that there is at least one more thrust lower to test and confirm a double bottom. From there, a move higher that takes gold back UP through 1660 and then 1680 will confirm that this nasty episode is behind us.

In regards to silver, I thought we should start with a chart of crude. HUH? That's right, crude. Do you recall last week when I mentioned that the silver chart looked a lot like the crude chart from late March and that silver was subject to "getting its stops gunned"? Well, guess what happened? And now what? Note that immediately after the crude stops were gunned a few weeks ago, crude bounced back but failed at the old support line, which had now become resistance. It then sold off further to a deeper low before consolidating and turning higher.

Note that silver may be following this same, classic pattern. The stops got gunned yesterday and down she went. A rally today failed right near where the old support had been and now it has since turned back lower. Will we next see a lower low, perhaps near the $30 level that we've all been waiting for? Probably.

Lastly, silver open interest rose again yesterday to a new 2012 high of 122,727. Again, for reference, back on 2/24 with price $5 higher, total OI peaked at 118,204 before falling along with price to 106,723 on 3/15. Since that date, price has fallen another $1.50 yet OI has risen by over 15%. The spring is obviously being coiled for a dramatic move. Which direction will it be? I imagine you can guess what I think.

Have a great evening and overnight. Get ready for a volatile rest of the week. TF

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Comments

my apologies

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 6:56am.

I checked gold at about ten to six - I believe you can spot the exact moment on the Netdania chart - things seem to be back to normal. I will give advance warning when I go and make coffee, as that has been an excellent signal that a morning beat down is coming. Unless I predict it ahead of time.

Congratulations GoodDoctor, on getting a job. Sort of like congratulations on the new leg-iron, but what cannot be prevented must be endured.

Short appl at the open

Submitted by Groaner on April 25, 2012 - 7:03am.

It always drops to the previous close on gaps up after earnings

Oh yeah, USd down and so are the metals. This is nuts! How long can they keep doing this?

Had to join the cheesy crowd

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 7:08am.

Wensleydale, Gloucestershire - oh I miss English cheeses! But here is one of my current favourites, and while I can't give you 'aged in a cave', I can give you 'in the shadow of a mystical island':

"Crafted in Coutances, in the Normandy region of northwestern France, St. André is a pasteurized cow's milk cheese, covered with a satiny, edible rind. Soft-ripened, the downy white outer layer offers a complex counterpoint to the wildly rich and silky center. As dense as pure butter and with the richest of flavors, the tongue-pleasing salty tang derives from the ocean air blowing through the paturages of the Normandy coast. Produced in the shadow of the mystical island of Mont Saint-Michel, St. André cheese is just as breathtaking as the landscape of the surrounding Cotentin Peninsula."

http://www.iledefrancecheese.com/index.php/St.-Andre/st-andre.html

High Ho Silver

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 7:10am.

looking good

@ Bobbejaan

Submitted by ClinkinKY on April 25, 2012 - 7:12am.

Agree with your assessment of zil's posting of the "First Cavity Search" cartoon. But...wasn't it just yesterday that he was complaining about "stupid cartoons"? Oh, wait...now I understand. They're only "stupid" if he doesn't agree with their content.

Forex-Dollar index at 3-week low, Euro up before FOMC

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 7:13am.

FOREX-Dollar index at 3-week low, euro up before FOMC

Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:42am EDT

* Dollar index hits 3-week low, euro supported

* Focus on Federal Reserve meeting

* Corporate earnings lift stocks, risk appetite

* Sterling falls after UK GDP contracts

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a three-week low against a basket of currencies and the euro held near recent highs as strong company earnings boosted investors' appetite for risky assets and the U.S. central bank was expected to keep interest rates ultra-low.

Investors were relieved when successful debt auctions sent yields on Dutch, Spanish and Italian debt lower on Tuesday, but traders said the euro remained vulnerable given budget problems and political uncertainty in several euro zone countries.

The dollar, which is seen as a safe haven, fell to a three-week low against a currency basket, with the index dropping to 79.065, as the Federal Reserve was expected to restate its intention to keep interest rates near zero throughout 2014.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/markets-forex-idUSL6E8FP0NN201...

Research Note: April FOMC Rate Decision

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 7:17am.

Research Note: April FOMC Rate Decision

Summary Outlook

On Wednesday at 1230EDT (1730GMT), the FOMC will release its policy statement after concluding its second 2-day meeting of the year. This also marks the second time by which the Committee's projections regarding the current and future economic situation will be accompanied by members' assessments as to the appropriate timing and pace of policy changes via their respective forecasts' for the Fed funds rate, set for release at 1400EDT (1900GMT). Chairman Bernanke's press conference will follow shortly thereafter, 1415EDT (1915EDT), in which he will address the media prior to the conclusive Q&A session.

Broad market expectations are for no change to the Fed's overall policy stance. Reinvestments of principal payments on security holdings, Operation Twist, and an ‘exceptionally low' Fed funds rate through late 2014 are likely to be reiterated. The Fed will also keep the door wide open for additional asset purchases by expressing its commitment to ‘promote a stronger economic recovery' which Fed Chair Bernanke is also likely to reiterate in the Q&A session. The summary of economic projections, however, may take on a more hawkish tone. We expect 2012 real GDP projections may be revised higher to 2.4% - 2.9% from 2.2% - 2.7% in January. Furthermore, the central tendency for the unemployment rate may be lowered to 8.2% - 7.9% for 2012 with future projections likely to see similar modest downside revisions....

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/research-no...

Must've Been In A Hurry To Get To The Protest

Submitted by ClinkinKY on April 25, 2012 - 7:19am.

Silver got a nice little pop

Submitted by Groaner on April 25, 2012 - 7:19am.

Just have a bad feeling the crooks will smack it down at some point today. Before or right after the Crook bank announcement

@clinkinky

Submitted by Number 47 on April 25, 2012 - 7:27am.

It's summer here in Ireland, rain and wind galore. No hibernating at this time of year.

You can't eat an Ipad, food, gas, tax and service price inflation V wage stagnation and underemployment does not bode well for aapl. On Bloomberg yesterday the talking heads were speculating this is a $1000 stock and to count increments in price in only $100 moves.

New paradigm? Can't lose? Investment of the century etc, etc?

Ripe for the bears, fatten us up before the long sleep.

@ Number 47

Submitted by ClinkinKY on April 25, 2012 - 7:31am.

The "smart bears" come out of hibernation long enough to "cash in":)

Full disclosure: I don't own a single share of AAPL. But my "smarter than the average bear" son does:)

@groaner

Submitted by achmachat on April 25, 2012 - 7:31am.

I sure hope they give their best shot at it!

i am expecting a rather large sum of fiat tomorrow; the lower spot is tomorrow, the better ;-)

With all the money being pumped into the system

Submitted by Groaner on April 25, 2012 - 7:50am.

The EU, USA how can the metals not respond? Explain how the hui can be so low other than the fact that the crooks naked shorting like Ranting Andy says. Big money must believe that the EU will crash and another deflation will occur bringing down everything. Then gold will shine soon after?

Proof that Europeans are going down the tube!

Submitted by Bobbejaan on April 25, 2012 - 8:00am.

Quote:

Confused driver 'parks' car in Paris metro station

A confused driver has ended up trapping his car on the steps of a Paris metro station, after mistaking it for the entrance to an underground car park.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17829438

European Austerity .... Leading by Example

Submitted by Bobbejaan on April 25, 2012 - 8:04am.

Yeah, right!!! :-

Quote:

Officials from the European Commission are due to outline proposals on Wednesday for a 6.8% rise in the EU's budget for 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17835821

@ bobbejaan

Submitted by Number 47 on April 25, 2012 - 8:05am.

The towing sign is quite apt.

Now, if that was a land rover you would just back it up. Can't stand those pointless jeeps and SUVs.

Missing $1.6 Billion MF

Submitted by recaptureamerica on April 25, 2012 - 8:08am.

Missing $1.6 Billion MF Global Funds: Traced
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/04/missing-16-billion-mf-global-funds-...

Is India Turning 'Paper'?

Submitted by indosil on April 25, 2012 - 8:10am.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/india-turning-paper-goldman-sachs-gold-etf-india-sees-11-fold-surge-volume

Being an Indian ..it's a matter of concern..but I still believe our love for Physical won't be diminished in any way..nobody will accept Paper Etfs for their wedding,,,,,that's for sure

Hong Kong Peg Architect Says

Submitted by recaptureamerica on April 25, 2012 - 8:14am.

Hong Kong Peg Architect Says Convertible Yuan `Long Way Off’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/hong-kong-peg-architect-says-co...

It's hard to believe that the

Submitted by Groaner on April 25, 2012 - 8:15am.

It's hard to believe that the Indians would buy those fraud paper scams ETF.s instead of the real deal?
We should see a pop in physical demand from the recent festival,

Gold from asteroids ??!!

Submitted by Basil on April 25, 2012 - 8:17am.

Is this really viable !! Hope not or all our stacks are gonna be toast !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17827347

mods: a tip

Submitted by DavidSilverSwe on April 25, 2012 - 8:21am.

links should auto take you into a new browser window, have forgot that the site lacks that programming so many times and got out of the site.

recaptureamerica from the MFG article

Submitted by Xty on April 25, 2012 - 8:22am.

Look where they found a 'substantial' amount of the money:

"The final $680 million or so was transferred to other financial institutions with which MF Global did business, including a substantial portion that went to JPMorgan."

Good luck getting that part back - I notice no mention of negotiations for these particular funds. Perhaps these were also inadvertently transferred. What an asinine comment - imagine if you inadvertently misplaced 200 billion dollars and that was all you could come up with. Lost in a boating accident would be much more believable!

TexasStalker, Bacon, Cheddar Cheese and Jalapeños !

Submitted by Monedas on April 25, 2012 - 8:24am.

TexasStalker....my best discovery since Clinky ! You were born to be a Turd....I had to work at it ! Fellow Preppers/Hoarders....what are the options for storing cheese ? Bacon and Jalapeño....no problem ! Is there "Canned Cheese" for those who don't live inside Wookey Hole Yeast Cave ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad The Chinese Are Not Giving Up Their Cheese Colored Gold To Buy Stinky Iranian Crude, IMNSHO !