TFMR Podcast #13 - The Straight Skinny from Gonzalo Lira

. . . some might find it immature for one of my years to storm onto Turd’s site and proclaim “First!”; compounding the unseemliness by using the CAPS LOCK key and inserting the more common, blandly-static smiley’s and upraised thumbs.  Accordingly, I have resolved to eschew that practice forthwith.

Be that as may be, all present are invited to reflect upon whose comment most immediately follows this - Turd’s latest - podcast.

And a special Hat Tip and Welcome Back to Gonzalo Lira!!

$6T in counterfeit US bonds is pretty unbelievable. Pump out a bunch of counterfeit paper and the value of the notes will be driven way down. It's been said many times before, but it really can't be said enough...printing gold or silver atoms is impossible.

TheSilverJournal.com

that's the worse website I have ever seen!! no kidding someone delete the previous post please???

I was delighted to learn the EE is super p*ssed at O for not allowing the oil pipeline to come in from Canada. So was I

​That whole part of the pipeline ordeal going through made me put a little more credibility with LW.  

"In silver, EE net short grew by about 1900 while spec longs also grew by about 2%."

In my notes of things to look out for that happen periodically, "Watch for attacks on the price of silver to be used as a proxy for keeping the price of gold down." 

If you the EE is having a hard time smacking down gold sometimes they will attack silver instead because that does have the net affect of putting the breaks on Gold - to some extent.  During this time the gold and silver ratio widens.  In silver BTFD

What you're seeing with europe is that old north/south split. Germany is the cultural center of northern europe, Italy is probably the cultural center of southern europe and France sorta sits on the fence. The south of France is a very different place from, say, Paris.

The real reason that Greece is getting squeezed has to do more with that north/south cultural conflict than anything else. Those no-good deadbeat Greeks - we're gonna screw them and make sure they work for that money they borrowed from us. That's the northern mentality. And they're the ones holding the loans.

Eh, for those of us sitting 4000 miles away - look, Greece has to explode, just get on with it you dithering blathering assholes.

GET ON WITH IT.

I agree with most of what you said,

France is a good nation to keep an eye on to see if problems are shifting to the core.

The Greek state itself has (in part) blame for the troubles they are in. The citizens should probably take their country back and put a real government in and nationalize everything before they get plundered.

I need somebody to do some real work. Like load a magazine without screwing thing up. Oh!!!good luck on THAT ONE! going to have to watch the SYFI chanell for a couple of months before we can even attempt that shit! Wow...we are in serious trouble. 

Nazis tried to flood Europe with fake British banknotes, MI5 files show
Newly released documents reveal the forgeries were so good that unwitting German spymasters bought them to pay agents

Enjoyed it...thanks

nice podcast indeed hattip

http://www.flayme.com/troll/

Thanks for that one DrkPurpleHaze.  The baited lines get tossed out of the party boat when controversial topics are close to shore.

What's often forgotten is that the ISDA have indicated they will call a default if the Greek government introduce the CAC clauses (See Zerohedge articles passim) AND activate them. And that's very likely to happen, even if it's Zerohedge that say so.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-come-cacs-cds-trigger-next

Having said that, the ISDA are probably lying as usual.

Your family, at least to the degree a Smith is a Smith, actually lived the German experiment more dramatically than most. If you're not aware, the finest microphones in history are Neumann's. When Germany was split, Neumann was split as well into Neumann and Microtech Geffell. Both companies made great things through the years, but the early Neumann lineup is what defines sound reproduction almost 80 years later. Pretty much the only mic worth imitating, to the degree you can charge more than Chinese suicide camp workers, is the Neumann U47, and even good clones fetch 5k. Originals... forget about it.

If you are a Neumann of that Neumann, you have quite the heritage to fail to live up to.

if the ISDA actually does refuse to call a default a default w.r.t. greek bonds, then doesn't that have other implications which are actually very positive for gold and silver?  

People have credit default swaps to protect them from the possibility of greek and other bonds being defaulted on.  If the ISDA is seen as being unwilling to be honest and let anyone protect their bond holdings then two things have to happen.  First, the interest rate offered on sovereign bonds has to rise.  And the only way many nations will deal with the increased cost of their bonds will be through printing of gobs of new fiat.  This will be good for holders of precious metals.

Second, bonds as a whole will be somewhat reassessed in the minds of investors.  And won't precious metals be seen as an increasingly good investment choice compared to bonds which will be shredded by inflation?

I like Gonzalo a lot but he doesn't seem to be acknowledging these factors.   However, I do think he made an excellent point about the Fed's likely overconfidence about how easily it can tame inflation and how it took Volker 36 months of super high interest rates to finally do it.

Your not doing that are you? Started about the same time frame you want to charge?

First of all, thank you Turd for the efforts to bring us these kinds of interviews. Much appreciated.

Here are some comments:

1. I think the story of the bonds was too easily being dismissed as "some ordinary crooks faking bonds to earn a dime". My alarm bells are ringing because this is the second time that this scenario has come to play in a span of a few years. Add to it the odd year of the bonds (1934), the $ amounts (trillions? way too much for ordinary crooks), the place (close to Switzerland, the land of secret vaults full of all the wealth of the scum of the earth), the FED cases, Asians involved (really, in Italy ?). Way too many odd things combined. I would have loved to hear more elaboration on who would have lost, and who would have benefited from these bonds, had they made it to the destination.

2. I agree with Gonzalo that the Greek CDS will never be triggered. Pity that the interview didn't fully touch on what the consequences were. As Jim Sinclair has stated, the bill will have to be paid by someone else. Probably brokers, pension funds, cities and villages, so you and me. That, in itself, could trigger a whole lot of events that eventually could be larger than 6 big banks going broke over having to pay CDS insurance. Maybe we can discuss these consequences amongst the Turdites.

Also, Greece has a history of violence, civil wars, military rulers (last one only a few decades ago). I wouldn't be one bit surprised if rather sooner than later, either the ordinary citizens or military have had enough, and throw the IMF and ECB out. What happens then will be chaos.

3. I see the war with Iran as inevitable but frankly, disagree with Gonzalo that Israel triggers it and drags the US into it "unwillingly". I think that the forces that want this war, have nothing to do with either country, at least don't care for either country, but intend to get their own agenda completed, an agenda that is not in the interest of either Israel, the US, Iran, or any other country for that matter. 

For the traders amongst us, it would be a great exercise to elaborate on trade "opportunities", altho the thought of making money when this occurs haunts me a bit.

4. Most interviews, this one not excluded, touch upon topics to a degree that is informative for those new to the subject. Personally i would like to hear the guests thoughts about why rather than who or what. For instance, why do the banks do what they do. Not to make money. Money is a means to an end, a means to power. Power over what, power to whom. That line of reasoning would, in my mind, connect more topics that occur as separated events in the media and give people a helicopter view. 
 

I'm getting pretty damned tired of the haters who seem to relish the idea of coming to an American  (based) PM site to bash not only the US but, too often,  it's citizens as well. You think we don't know that we have problems with our government? You think that we don't know that things have to change with how things are done?

Some of the vitriol I see unleashed, at times, makes me think that Barack Obama has multiple accounts here.

Bash away at the present administration if you wish, and other events in our checkered history that deserve to be criticized, but try to remember that the CITIZENS of this country have done more good than harm in the short 236 years we've been around.

For cryin' out loud, have some manners. You're a guest.

Clink said:

but try to remember that the CITIZENS of this country have done more good than harm in the short 236 years we've been around.

Do you think the:

Iraqis,

Afghanis,

El Salvadoreans,

Hondurans,

Nicaraugans,

Haitians,

Chileans,

Fijians,

Vietnamese,

Cambodians,

Russians,

Chinese,

North Koreans,

and pretty much the rest of the planet agrees with that statement.  Honestly I would add the Israeli people and a whack of your American brethren to that short list.

Not even sure where this america bashing post that has you all riled up is located but maybe you are preemptively attacking my post which you knew was coming.  That would be in contemporary American military fashion  -- nice play.  Clink how is the air up there where you live.   The self-righteous bombast is phenomenal.  Give us a few examples please of your assertion -- that American has done a lot more good than harm.  Is electricity one.  Penicillin, maybe.  You made it to the moon.  Building schools in Iraq.  Freeing the women in Kuwait.   Testing the bomb in Fiji and Japan.  What.  Love to hear all the good you and your tribe has done for the world. 

Now I`m just a canadian schmuck who missed the indoctrination classes of how flipping awesome his country is.

note:  my question mark key aint working.

Some of the thoughts on Lira are interesting and I am looking forward to listening to the podcast.

Actually, your post(s) never entered my mind. The people I was referring to know who they are. Additionally, the nations/peoples you've listed above have been harmed by the US GOVERNMENT, not the American PEOPLE. The American people are some of the most generous people in the world. Some folks here seem to have a hard time discerning between the two. If you can't understand what I'm saying then there's no point in discussing it further.

I am with you on the bonds thing.  This one seems (to me) to be a fake.  I don't believe the US has ever issued $1 billion dollar bearer bonds.  But why would you bother forging something that never existed?  The story from 2009 is still pretty interesting too, because if they were fakes (as announced by the US Secret Service), why did they let the guys go?  We are obviously not getting all the information on either of these stories, but they both reinforce my decision to hold physical. 

I agree with Gonzalo that Greece will never be declared a credit event and the CDS will never pay off.  GREAT point by Gonzalo that the decision has been made to save the big PARTICIPANTS in the system, even if it destroys the whole system.  I personally thing the Fed will pump liquidity to the ECB, and they will pump the money to the EU banks, who will approve the second bailout for Greece (and the 3rd, 4th, 5th, ....).  

Iran- In my opinion, Gonzalo is correct that war with Iran will have long term consequences.  The US and Israel are probably thinking that they can hit Iran's nuclear facilities, sink a few ships, permanently submerge a few subs, hit a few missile sites, and then the war will be over (remember we thought we would be out of Libya in "hours or days"?)  If anyone does strike Iran, Iran will be tempted to interfere with oil shipments through the straights for a long time.  Think it is a military mismatch and an easy win?  How we doing with shutting down the pirates off the coast of Somalia?  20 men willing to die with 10 speedboats could shut down the straights for 3 years.  Go long oil if you are trader, buy the dip when the shooting starts if you are Louie. 

You're right, there is no "America bashing" post on this thread. The impetus for my post was Moderator Jefferson's post admonishing another poster for bashing another country.  I merely extrapolated to vent on my feelings of posts on other threads which seem to be increasing in light of current events. My complaint is with people who want to "hold accountable" ALL American citizens, instead of the idiots who enable the "rogue" government. If you choose to interpret my post as "phony pride" rather than "defending the American people" who are not part and parcel of this abomination (and so far do not have the necessary numbers to remedy it), then yes, this is an "improper discernment".

You know, Clinkin, what you said here about the American people who are not part and parcel of this abomination and the majority of whom who have resisted it only to find that their clearly expressed directives resulted in nothing more except more of the same digression into despotism resonates with me.  Our shepherds have abused the sheep over whom they have been given power.  Us sheep have had little choice other than self-immolation that probably would have had little effect other than destitution of our families.  It makes me angry that these evil men have stolen our wealth and used it to buy their way into total power over the world's economic system, and from that they are proceeding to near complete control of the earth, but we get blamed for what we in no way wanted in the first place.

DayStar

I'm outta here while you guys fight.  I have lot's to do today to get ready for the debauchery in New Orleans this weekend.

One little insight.  

You can hate the baby boomers, but under a two party system controlled by central bankers, there was nothing an individual could do to prevent this.

You can hate the politicians, but under a system controlled by central bankers, there was nothing a single politician could do to prevent this.

Finally, you can hate the Americans, but central bankers have taken over the world, so if you think the Germans would have done any better if they won WWII, or the Soviet Union if they had overwhelmed the West, you are out of your minds, because central bankers run everything.  Countries don't matter.  People don't matter.  All that matters is central bankers own us all.

I would think that was clear by now.