TFMR Podcast #13 - The Straight Skinny from Gonzalo Lira

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With everything in Europe seemingly coming to a head very soon, I thought it would be wise to ring up Gonzalo Lira, as he has a much better grasp of the situation than I.

In this podcast, I give Gonzalo free rein to go wherever he wants. Part of that was intentional; Turdites will recall that the Skype connection between Anytown, USA and Santiago, Chile is slow and creates a "delay" in the recording of the call. Part of it was intentional, though, as you all get plenty of my BS on a daily basis. I figured that if Gonzo was willing to give us the time, I might as well let him have the floor.

This call begins with a discussion of the mysterious trillions of bearer bonds rounded up today in Switzerland. From there, we discuss Europe and the eventual default of Greece and then conclude with some thoughts on Iran and the implications of the war that seems to be brewing.

If you enjoy this podcast, I would strongly you to consider becoming a subscriber at Gonzalo's website:

http://www.liraspg.com/

Membership has its benefits. Not only do you receive timely analysis but Gonzalo also he hosts instructive webinars for his clients about once per month.

The podcast runs a bit longer than usual at 50 minutes or so but, if you have the time over this 3-day weekend, I encourage you to listen to the entire thing.

TF


154 Comments

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Upon reflection . . .

. . . some might find it immature for one of my years to storm onto Turd’s site and proclaim “First!”; compounding the unseemliness by using the CAPS LOCK key and inserting the more common, blandly-static smiley’s and upraised thumbs.  Accordingly, I have resolved to eschew that practice forthwith.

Be that as may be, all present are invited to reflect upon whose comment most immediately follows this - Turd’s latest - podcast.

And a special Hat Tip and Welcome Back to Gonzalo Lira!!

Turd Ferguson's picture

This week's CoT

MODERATOR

At first glance...

Pretty good news for gold. Not so much for silver.

Cartel net short in gold decreased by about 11,600 contracts while spec longs fell by 7300 or 3.5%.

In silver, EE net short grew by about 1900 while spec longs also grew by about 2%.

Conclusion: The Cartel might be preparing for 1750 to fall as the Greek/EU situation gets more tenuous. The silver CoT is exactly what you would have thought considering the ongoing battle between 33 and 34.

TheSilverJournal.com's picture

Can't Counterfeit Gold

$6T in counterfeit US bonds is pretty unbelievable. Pump out a bunch of counterfeit paper and the value of the notes will be driven way down. It's been said many times before, but it really can't be said enough...printing gold or silver atoms is impossible.

TheSilverJournal.com

Katie Rose's picture

Smoking Hot New Lindsey Williams Interview

Repost from end last thread.

Here's another interview for you to listen to this weekend. wink

Forgive me if this has already been posted, but Bobby from Just Measures Coin Shop really held Lindsey's feet to the fire on this one.

The first 10+ minutes are the same intro as always, then it gets good. 

http://jumbofiles.com/0abxxre42zlq

The sound quality is not that good, but the interview is.

Bobby is having Lindsey on again on March 13th. If you have a question for Lindsey, that would be a good time to call in with the question.

Bobby's website is:

http://justmeasurescs.com/

Hope this is OK to post here, Turd. I sure don't want to steal any of your thunder. 

I was delighted to learn the EE is super p*ssed at O for not allowing the oil pipeline to come in from Canada. So was I. smiley

Groaner's picture

that's the worse website I

that's the worse website I have ever seen!! no kidding someone delete the previous post please???

banal comments's picture

I'm going to call foul on the

I'm going to call foul on the "Jump to Conclussions" game that Turd plays in the interview (I'm an Office Space fan, what can I say).  Again, you make the assumption that a default will cause the 5 biggest U.S. banks to go bankrupt, as Sinclair has.  This is not the case.  On a relative basis, this is a small amount.  We're talking about a few billion here in CDS.  Italy?  Yes, big problem.  Greece, not so much.  Check the facts, jack!  Good interview otherwise.

agrock's picture

LW

I was delighted to learn the EE is super p*ssed at O for not allowing the oil pipeline to come in from Canada. So was I

​That whole part of the pipeline ordeal going through made me put a little more credibility with LW.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

I guess this depends upon

MODERATOR
JimmyTheHand's picture

Silver Attacks as a Proxy?

"In silver, EE net short grew by about 1900 while spec longs also grew by about 2%."

In my notes of things to look out for that happen periodically, "Watch for attacks on the price of silver to be used as a proxy for keeping the price of gold down." 

If you the EE is having a hard time smacking down gold sometimes they will attack silver instead because that does have the net affect of putting the breaks on Gold - to some extent.  During this time the gold and silver ratio widens.  In silver BTFD

Ubergrinch's picture

No thanks

After Gonzalo Lira included Argentina and South Africa on his list of places to escape the United States on Max Keiser, I've decided to stop listening to him.

He said: South Africa (LOL), Chile, Uruguay, Argentina (LOL), New Zealand, Australia (How are NZ and OZ any better than the US? Australia is about to have its real estate bust & their government loves our government.)

All in all, I think this guy is a blowhard just trying to get wealthy clients who want to relocate & play off their fear.

exiledbear's picture

There's two europes - north and south

What you're seeing with europe is that old north/south split. Germany is the cultural center of northern europe, Italy is probably the cultural center of southern europe and France sorta sits on the fence. The south of France is a very different place from, say, Paris.

The real reason that Greece is getting squeezed has to do more with that north/south cultural conflict than anything else. Those no-good deadbeat Greeks - we're gonna screw them and make sure they work for that money they borrowed from us. That's the northern mentality. And they're the ones holding the loans.

Eh, for those of us sitting 4000 miles away - look, Greece has to explode, just get on with it you dithering blathering assholes.

GET ON WITH IT.

Exbroker's picture

Wow! How Old are you

And how many years did your family live  in Europe during ww2? My surname is Neumann. My family lived the German experiment. I did not. Thank God for that. But, unlike most Americans, we stupid ass EX Brokers have seen this before and we are just waiting to kick your ass if you don't get it right this time. You got that? You just keep on typin on that tablet. I'll just keep on loading the Magazines. 

zilverreiger's picture

exiledbear

I agree with most of what you said,

France is a good nation to keep an eye on to see if problems are shifting to the core.

The Greek state itself has (in part) blame for the troubles they are in. The citizens should probably take their country back and put a real government in and nationalize everything before they get plundered.

zilverreiger's picture

@Exbroker

who were you talking to?

Exbroker's picture

I can find any idiot to type.....

I need somebody to do some real work. Like load a magazine without screwing thing up. Oh!!!good luck on THAT ONE! going to have to watch the SYFI chanell for a couple of months before we can even attempt that shit! Wow...we are in serious trouble. 

zilverreiger's picture

and more audio for people

recaptureamerica's picture

Hmmmmmm,

Nazis tried to flood Europe with fake British banknotes, MI5 files show
Newly released documents reveal the forgeries were so good that unwitting German spymasters bought them to pay agents

recaptureamerica's picture

Nazis tried to flood Europe

Nazis tried to flood Europe with fake British banknotes, MI5 files show
Newly released documents reveal the forgeries were so good that unwitting German spymasters bought them to pay agents

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/17/nazis-fake-british-banknotes

jacey's picture

Good podcast

Enjoyed it...thanks

JimmyTheHand's picture

THE FLAG THE FLAG!!!

Hahaha... just had a chance to really look at those pictures of the chest!  THE FLAG IS THE WRONG ONE FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

The flag from that time period only had 48 states on it and the stars were in a perfect square.  Sorry if someone beat me to it, but I thought it was funny.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1934_in_the_United_States

zilverreiger's picture

nice podcast indeed hattip

nice podcast indeed hattip

SilverFocker's picture

Geat interveiw

I agreed all the way until the imminent war.........I say not so fast, things are very bad here still, if we again allowed the PTB to wage another useless war, then we deserve to have our asses handed to us economically. IMO if there is a war, it will be of Israel's doing....if we are involved , it will be by proxy.

The comments on the PIIGS are spot on.........it will happen, it's just a matter of time. If the big 5 are as deep into this as was stated , then yes they are in trouble as this will not be just a few billion.

¤'s picture

self-explanatory

dgstage's picture

Gonzalo Lira, Come On Turd #2

I know he changes positions very quickly, and he thinks he knows it all in my opinion. I also think he is unprofessional at times. Turd I also think you should control his direction. Nothing against you, but even Max Keiser has challenged him. Talk about arrogance!

SuperLeggera's picture

Cross Town Traffic

Thanks for that one DrkPurpleHaze.  The baited lines get tossed out of the party boat when controversial topics are close to shore.

Smiddywesson's picture

@ubergrinch

Ya, know, that has come up in conversation recently.  After what happened during Katrina, I've spoken with a lot of law enforcement and others who shared my opinion that when some really threatening event occurs, the bridges and roads east out of New Orleans will be severed.  

You are invited to spend the Apocalypse in Mississippi, but you had better remember your Yes Mams, and No Sirs, or you are going to end up as Bayou Chow.

The kick the can game has empowered the victims too.   What is coming is not a surprise to a lot of young stud LEOs, and you'd be surprised how much more they identify with you than the bad guys. 

This is going to work out.  It's going to be bad, but not as bad as it could be.

tpbeta's picture

ISDA and stuff

What's often forgotten is that the ISDA have indicated they will call a default if the Greek government introduce the CAC clauses (See Zerohedge articles passim) AND activate them. And that's very likely to happen, even if it's Zerohedge that say so.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-come-cacs-cds-trigger-next

Having said that, the ISDA are probably lying as usual.

thurd aye's picture

LOL to South Africa?

Not sure you are correct to LOL South Africa.  I have lived there for the last five years, and there are definitely places where you are safe as houses can be.I stay in the mountains of the Western Cape,many miles from the nearest town.The 'coloured'(mixed white and Koi San) population of farm workers side with the whites in the main and want little trouble outside their own affairs.The valley where I stay has a well armed and organised group of farmers who could seal the valley in minutes were trouble approaching.The cities ,yes,if TSHTF I agree,  and any proximity to the townships too.But please don't dismiss the whole country without close personal observation and experience.

TA

Code The Plumber's picture

Mr Neumann..

Your family, at least to the degree a Smith is a Smith, actually lived the German experiment more dramatically than most. If you're not aware, the finest microphones in history are Neumann's. When Germany was split, Neumann was split as well into Neumann and Microtech Geffell. Both companies made great things through the years, but the early Neumann lineup is what defines sound reproduction almost 80 years later. Pretty much the only mic worth imitating, to the degree you can charge more than Chinese suicide camp workers, is the Neumann U47, and even good clones fetch 5k. Originals... forget about it.

If you are a Neumann of that Neumann, you have quite the heritage to fail to live up to.

NW VIEW's picture

@ thurd aye

I agree that there are areas of RSA that are quite safe.  The Cape area is a wonderful and safe place for all.  I stay at Richards Bay with friends when I travel to RSA and that place has become very dangerous over the last 20 years.  Many are leaving and moving to England or Australia.  jmo

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