TFMR Podcast #12 - John Williams of ShadowStats.com

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Boy oh boy, do I ever have a timely treat for you today. Back on Thursday, I was able to visit with John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics. In light of today's heavily-manipulated BLSBS report, I'd say this podcast is rather timely.

As most of you know, my college degree is in Econ so getting a chance to visit with John was a real pleasure. I mention at the end of the podcast that I could have gone on speaking with him for another hour or two but, in respect of his time, I had to cut us off after just 30 minutes. Please take the time to listen to the entire thirty minutes, though. The information that John provides, particularly near the end of the podcast as he discusses the CPI and the coming "hyperinlationary depression", is extremely important.

I'd also like to pass along a hearty and sincere endorsement of John's work and his website. He provides plenty of information free of charge but if you want to go in-depth, you should seriously consider purchasing a subscription. The site can be found here: http://www.shadowstats.com/

I'm confident you'll enjoy this podcast and I hope to have a follow-up conversation with John sometime soon.  TF


64 Comments

Hammer's picture

Morning and thanks :)

Morning and thanks :)

boil_in_the_bag_rice's picture

Thanks from snowy Finland

Thanks from snowy Finland buddy!

Be Prepared's picture

Hurdy Turdy

Thrown like a star in my vast sleep
I open my eyes to take a peep
To find that I was by the sea
Gazing with tranquillity.
'Twas then when the Hurdy Turdy Man
Came singing songs of Silver and Gold,

A little Donovan homage to our ring leader, Turd.

____________________________________________________

Thanks Turd for arranging to interview John Williams...... what a great score and opportunity for all of us, Turdites.

Kuchek's picture

What a score!

Love Mr. Williams. I love this site.

stopcpdotcom's picture

Are there any government statistics...

Are there any government statistics that are reliable?

survivalwstyle's picture

bravo!!!

way to go mrF. just found my wEEkend listening material.  could not have a more timely interview....enjoy this wEEkend! stay safe pEEps.

edit: and NO there are NO g'men stats you can trust.

balz's picture

Very good interview... but I have a suggestion

Very good interview, but I have a suggestion for you Turd. Take what you want from it.

I think it would be better if you cut the sound of your mic while the other person talks. Because a lot of time there are some residual noise (breathing, chair noise, etc.) that make it more difficult to listen to what the person has to say.

Also, I believe you could cut those "hmm hmm" and "yeah" by about 75%... Don't need to say it every 30 seconds for the other person to feel that he is listened to.

Please don't take those advice badly. I really like this interview and other interviews. Only a suggestion to make the next ones even better!

Thanks

dropout's picture

All government stats must now be suspect.

No matter which government entity/department issues statistics meant for public consumption, they (the stats) will tout the ongoing governmental propaganda line. There is no truth left in these statistical releases.

1/ The GDP is heavily 'adjusted'.

2/ The CPI is manipulated by way of change in 'goods baskets'.

3/ Labor Statistics have become a joke by way of 'methodology'. 

4/ Fiscal Responsibility is generally recognized as being non existent. 

5/ There is no moral ground left in government. We have rule by the moneyed elite, for the moneyed elite, and of the moneyed elite. As George Carlin stated "its a big club and you aint in it!" Believe gov.stats. at your peril.    

cpnscarlet's picture

Boy do I hate days like this.

It's all crooked and rigged. For gold to go down 30+ on a day like today is obscene. Anyone can read the BLS data and see how skewed the numbers are. And what about the saber rattling? PMs should be going up if the world is so crazy, right??? I really find it hard to feel any affection for my nation at this point. The laws are ignored and the people are either evil or stupid.

Thanks for the interview Turd - a Williams interview is quite a feather in your cap. I know I haven't heard audio from him in too many venues. Well done.

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Regardless of the Skepticism

expressed here, there are millions like these who have already bought into the latest BLSBS statistics.

And these are just a handful of the business journalists.

balz's picture

I thought this might interest some people

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=lTFmXHl5qVA

P.S. I don't know how to embed the video.

¤'s picture

Thanks again

You have quite a line up of quality guests starting to accumulate in the podcast menu yes

Nice job!

cpnscarlet's picture

Sasha - Not quite LOLCat

Haven't heard from Sasha for awhile -

dropout's picture

Shadow Stats Charts

Click on the link to Dr. Paul Craig Robert's site to view some latest John Williams work.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2012/02/02/the-real-economic-picture/

While there, read some of the articles - they are eye opening. Real eyes realize real lies! 

Turd, thank you for all you do. I salute you and my fellow Turdites.

Strongsidejedi's picture

TF - Thank you for this interview

I appreciate the opportunity to hear John Williams.

I've been periodically following Shadowstats for years to understand why I was feeling various things when I went to the local store.

The fluctuations in monetary supply clearly impacts my pricing in my town.

So, many thanks and I greatly appreciate the work of both you and Mr. Williams.

Fred Hayek's picture

Wow, thanks Turd!

Williams is terrific.  He's been fighting a lonely battle bringing people the truth when our government desperately wants to lie and have all us serfs ignorant that it's b.s.

Two stunning, to me, facts were that, one, it was Greenspan who pushed to rig the inflation numbers in the early 90's.  My god, was the guy who hung around the circle of Ayn Rand admirers abducted by aliens who replaced him with a simulacrum of a human being?  And, second, if the inflation numbers had NOT been screwed with, people getting social security would be getting checks TWICE as big today.  Twice as big.  Wow. 

Terabyte's picture

Fred Hayek

 

"And, second, if the inflation numbers had NOT been screwed with, people getting social security would be getting checks TWICE as big today.  Twice as big.  Wow."

And that, of course, is the very reason it's been "screwed with."

SilverFocker's picture

Very good interveiw

I was on another forum a couple of months ago where we were talking about the FDA considering approval of horse meat to be sold here..........I breached the subject of the CPI and how it was manipulated....and that the sale of horse meat would add into that equation. To state that the whole conversation got lost would not correctly describe the result.

It is really sad that a bunch of otherwise smart people do not have the most basic understanding that they are nothing more than hogs at the trough when it deals with the current economic situation in this country, let alone what the global situation is.

Keep on stackin.....don't forget the protein and fun time until then. Maybe after the chairs have been uprighted  we all come back here  to have a turdite head count remembering when.

We live in history's moments!

BTW: GO GIANTS

Gil's picture

I love John Williams, thanks

I love John Williams, thanks for that interview. I can't believe he called you "Turd", not once but twice.

TransmissionRebuilder's picture

At just past 24 minutes

Mr. Williams stated that even if the feds taxed all people and corporations at 100% it still would not balance the budget. I heard David Walker (former chief of the GAO) say the same thing back in 2008. So I conclude from that information, and some quick back of the envelope math, that with a top income tax bracket at 39% or less, and a capitol gains tax at 35% (short term) and 15% (long term) the government needs to cut out at least 60% of the current budget to get it all balanced without raising taxes. To add insult to injury, lets say they double the income tax rate on all taxpayers, that would still leave at a minimum a 20% shortfall using third grade math. In reality it would be far bigger, but the numbers make my brain hurt, and the Markers Mark doesn't help either. AND, that doesn't include the off budget stuff! It is a sobering reality when you finally wrap your head around it. Our so called representatives in congress can't even find a way to cut a fraction of 1% from the budget. There is no way they will ever cut the budget in half! FFS, even Ron Pauls' plan to cut a trillion the first year still leaves us with a half a trillion dollar shortfall, which is more than GWB's record setting shortfall of $438 billion in 2008. Pretty good bet we won't be hearing these kind of real numbers on CNBS or MSNBS. In fact we won't be hearing them anywhere at all if they ever get a SOPA type bill passed.

In my opinion, there is exactly ZERO percent chance that the powers that be pull this mess out of the porcelain punch bowl. Which is why I hang out in Turdville! Because a Turd in the punchbowl beats no punch bowl at all, ANY day!  Keep prepping and stacking because the end of the great Keynesian experiment is sure to be quite ugly. They are going to print, and print and print some more till the whole thing goes kaboom. Somebody please show me why I am wrong.

TransmissionRebuilder

Turd Ferguson's picture

Right on, bro.

MODERATOR

Right on, bro.

Strongsidejedi's picture

And now a commercial break from VW

And now a commercial break from Volkswagen 

Germany will need to have to use the force on the Greeks.

Edward G's picture

other team's locker room visit

Kudos to Mr F for this 

With apologies to mr Hayek, I have been trying to fathom this week the mentality of fiatist central plannists, including MMT theory.

I note that Richard Koo, who seems to be respected by Tylers, believes that Japan is an example for the current global predicament in that ( thanx to him?) they continued FISCAL stimulus to offset deleveraging and credit demand destruction ( e.g. infrastructure projects, 'bridges to nowhere') and the money supply didn't increase as this offset these, he even claims that US money supply has not increased with QE and the annual 1.5T deficit...

He seems to say that 'austerity' and deficit reduction are the wrong course, and .gov should come in as spender of last resort, and folks like him seem to think that they can remove the liquidity as the private sector recovers e.g. by raising taxes (in about a million years?...the glaring point is that Japan has yet to do this after DECADES, haha they were just about to start just before Lehman)....that deflationary forces are so powerful that inflation is not a threat...UK, Germany, Repubs wrong- Gordon Brown right...

I'd like to know more about the mathematical chances of ever raising rates now that the debt has gone beyond critical points...a big theme on ZH

I am trying to understand how Mr Koo and the like can ignore the currency debasement factors in his analysis,...the ratings agencies downgrading countries who don't do deficit reduction...Obviously he thinks the whole world would need to act together (yeah right) to do fiscal stimulus.

I really don't know if these guys really believe this creed as much as they say......they'd love to consign Von Mises' insights in to history. ( I do remind myself that letting it all crash in '08 or now would have been really scary, and more so now and later on. I do kind of think that ideally democratic goverment should try and take care of individuals somehow)

Conclusion: mm yes we are screwed, Kyle Bass is right, and I'm nearer to getting my boyscout badge in econ 101.

It's much more calming for me to check out contrary opinions thoroughly, saves me mental energy within the noise, I wonder if others feel that way. Does this help discussion and resolve here?

Ed

Strongsidejedi's picture

And, another break courtesy of the Japanese

Honda brings us back a cameo by Matthew Broderick of Ferris Bueller's Day Off

TheGoodDoctor's picture

Many good points made in this

Many good points made in this thread. But as has been mentioned above that we are beyond the point of no return. And I think each time the can is kicked down the road the time frame gets shorter and shorter until the next can kick is needed.

And this is why I still feel that they will not stop spending. The end game is currency devaluation until the breaking point at which point a 1933 style devaluation will occur. And those who say it was a 40% devaluation are wrong it was a 75% devaluation.

I'll have to read more about John's update on hyperinflation but that will be ugly if it happens.

0351's picture

to Be Prepared - Donavan....

I had to say - Donovan is someone not often remembered or appreciated these days. Weird music for weird lives. Hurdy gurdy man is one of my favorites.

Senseosensei's picture

Under attack

There is no way that intelligent people would bring a country to a collapse so openly, so ruthlessly, and with so little respect for the old, injured, or poor.

The US is under attack from within, i have no other words to describe that your guys are at war: with the government and the forces behind them. Who seemingly don't care for the US other than to see it go down.

I hope, that by some miracle, the masses will wake up and vote for the only guy i see making an effort to turn the tide.

Thanks for the interview.

zilverreiger's picture

Senseosensei

I think it's the world over, this is the big transition of wealth from the old power to asia, the richest nations like northern europe and the elite states in the USA will still do well I think, they'll stay on parr with asia.

The rest will become slave nations, just like africa and south america  have been for centuries under us. This is how capitalism has always worked under our ignorance,  its just that we're now increasingly at the receiving end of the stick, and nobody will care this time either.  Hedge accordingly!

ClinkinKY's picture

Not content with being "King", B.O. shoots for "Pope"

Michael Ramirez Cartoon

RaRaRasputin's picture

Thanks Turd

A brilliant interview that shows there is no hiding from where we are going.  As a Brit I always listen to these interviews with the thought of 'how will this affect those outside of the US?'  We experienced similar in the 1970's when the pound was devalued in 1967 following loss of its reserve currency status.

Economist Nicholas Craft wrote that this was a period of government failure caused by poor understanding of economic theory, short-termism and a failure to confront interest groups. Sound familiar?

​This was the time of stagflation, three day electricity/working week and rolling strikes.  OK unions aren't as powerful now as they were then but it was a very tough time for UK citizens.  I was only a child so don't really remember but I know inflation was cripplingly high.

​Keep stacking and prepping folks as we may not need it now but we are going to need those items in the not too, and fast approaching, future.

RaRa

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