TFMR Podcast #6 - John Soltez

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This week, I had the opportunity to visit with author, John Soltez. Not only is John a great writer, he's also an independent trader who understands the PMs and their manipulation. Basically, he's our kind of guy.

Back in the late 1990s, John wrote a book entitled "Only in America". The premise of the book is a breakdown of American society in the aftermath of a disputed presidential election. It disturbingly details one possible end of "the great Keynesian experiment" and, with another election just over the horizon, it is a timely read.

If, after listening to the podcast you are inspired to purchase this book, a handy link has been provided below.  TF


126 Comments

Louie's picture

First!

First!

First! First! First!

And since it is Friday night, I get to be FIRST all the way till Monday!

Feed The Turd!

ewc58's picture

Louie

Gee that's just swell. And happy Friday to you sir. But next time, can you please acknowledge the work done here?

EDIT: Beg Pardon Louie, after all, Feed The Turd is rather effective!

ewc58's picture

Turd, thanks for the new weekend listening material

This Gent is totally new to me. I love when that happens, so I'm looking forward to hearing this.

cpnscarlet's picture

Turd - I'm surprised you wouldn't see it.

Why would Joe 6-Pack be interested in de-regulation? That Joe-6 is probably a small business owner who ships product across a state line. WHAM! He's subject to almost all the same regulations a big corporation is (DOC, DOT...). Bad stereotyping of the Tea Party IMHO.

cpnscarlet's picture

Oooo - 'nother faux pas'

Big mistake Soltez - Ron Paul is not the most ideologically pure conservative, he is the purest libertarian, regardless of the party nomination he may get. I don't think this is a matter of opinion.

European American's picture

Professor Murray Sabrin admits Ron Paul is silenced ...

by the media because of the Federal Reserve

!

UncleFester's picture

What...

Cpn,

Where did everyone go?

IFester

Fred Hayek's picture

Not too impressed

Only a guy who's pretty much a dedicated lefty would have been able to ignore that the Tea Party folks opposed all the corporate bailouts and decide that they're just pro corporation.   Obviously the nature of that group has changed, mostly for the worse since its founding, but I'd like to see Mr. Soltez tell Danninger that he was simply pro-corporation.  Really?!    Disappointing.

Also tremendously disappointing and symptomatic of reflexive lefties was the disbelief that an average guy would oppose regulation.  At its base, much of the time, that view is the product of a snobbish, dismissive attitude toward the average citizen.  It ignores the possibility that the average guy thinks he can make it on his own if the deck wasn't stacked against him.  It imagines that the average guy is partly waiting around for his "betters", like the guy who is dismissive, to give him something.

Shill's picture

Man chilly night here in

Man chilly night here in Merry Old New England.

Family took off to the movies ( not my bag of goods ) so here I sit beer in hand. Walked around on my property, lot of Skunks out this evening, and Foggy :)

So I'm putting a bag of pellets in the pellet stove and I look up and see the mirror and I ask myself, do these teeth make me look fat?

Gold Bitches, positive week.

Turd thanks for the Pod cast. good stuff as always.

FEED THE TURD FRIDAY

Turd Ferguson's picture

My role

MODERATOR

My "job" in a podcast like this one is to let the guest talk. It's up to you, the listener, to decide if you like his ideas.

MollyRatchet's picture

Sorry if this is a repost ..Bob Chapman

Shill's picture

You mean you want me to think

You mean you want me to think Turd?

NEVER!

FleetFeet's picture

Good podcast

Very enjoyable; perhaps the best yet, all-around.  Excellent audio quality.  Smooth flow of topics.  We eavesdrop on an interesting and casual conversation.  

I didn't check the file size, but I did notice the download was rather slow for a 25-minute sound only.  Is it compressed as much as feasible, preserving that clarity and quality?   Or it could have been my ISP -- Comcast goes from rabbit to turtle several times a day.    

Thanks, and a tip o th'hat!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes

MODERATOR

I f'd up and made it 128 instead of 64. Oops. Sorry.

tpbeta's picture

Never mind that what about this?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-goes-margin-defcon-1-makes-maintenance-margin-equal-initial-everything

"as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call."

Shill's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/news

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-goes-margin-defcon-1-makes-maintenance...

"as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call."

tpbeta's picture

errrr....

....first?

cpnscarlet's picture

Is this a very bad

Is this a very bad coincidence - I was just watching a video about supervolcanoes just before reading about the CME margin hike. If this is legit, then ... I mean ... like ... you know ... ))%#*#%* )%)#*(%^^ @$((53 (%83

)%#()6  )%#((#% )(@(!&#

And so forth.

ivars's picture

Collected short term forecasts-day 40,still OK- facts are boring

Being averse to short term, unable, nevertheless, knowing its what every one is looking for, I made some 40 days ago and in between, and here they all are, now I check them with lower frequency, and more to remind myself in one place what I have committed myself to- I look for mistakes!

a)Brent Crude 1M oil September 26th:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/61397#comment-61397

It says ICE Brent crude 1M 105 (later I added +-10) - valid through the 40 day period, today: 112,50 USD

b)Silver and gold short term on September 27th:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/60954#comment-60954

1) Silver may fluctuate around 30 USD (+- 3?) for 1 month or so (except very short sharp peaks, perhaps) , then move up sharply about 5 USD to 35-40 and drop again, now to little higher level of 33-35 +-5, and not change much anymore this year. So the bottom will be kind of close from time to time during October.

Well the move up to 35 has certainly happened and we are still there.

2) Gold, on the contrary, seems to be posed for relatively steady growth till 1800 in November, around which level it should fluctuate for few months (+- 50 ?) ;No real  problems here -still time, direction seem to be OK -today 1754, within -50.

Kind of suggests may be more commodities will have relatively flat period from Oct-Nov till the end of the Year. Not checked

c) EUR/USD on October 5th and 12th:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/70046#comment-70046

what I have predicted on October 5th is , that USD per EUR will go up from 1,325 to (1,40-1,425-1,45) till the end of the year 2011.  It has gone up from 1,325 allright,  now only at 1,38

d) About DJIA on October 24th, where I said:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/75843#comment-75843

I predict that :

DJIA index maximum seen in this week and next - will be the highest  for next 2 months till January 1st, 2012.

SO the week has ended and the closing maximum within 2 weeks was 12231. This number has to followed for  60 days.

e) I have added two new short term comparison /prediction charts the extends the Silver and Gold price predictions till February 1st:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/81821#comment-81821 her e I have non-zero hedge added -3+5

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/81855#comment-81855   here I have non-zero hedge added -50+30

These have to be followed 90 days ( not 120 as some people suggested).

Bay of Pigs's picture

@Shill

That is priceless...

Looks like they take the boots to everyone before they can do anything about on monday. 

Sounds about right. I'm sure JPM and others are already well positioned to make money on this downndraft.

Jdawg's picture

CME just made the maintenance margin equal to initial margin for

cpnscarlet's picture

@BoP - I'm still wondering if

@BoP - I'm still wondering if I should go to the ATM now and get some cash just in case the liquid really dries up.

Bay of Pigs's picture

cpn

No, it's just going to roil the markets again. Might even be a big drop, but who really knows? I imagine cash isn't going to be a problem at your local ATM.

Pour yourself a nice stiff one. Relax. The Bernank "stands ready to provide whatever it takes" going forward.  

Jasper16's picture

Turd a must post video

Mr Turd, the funniest PM video I've ever seen I promise. You must post this guy!

PS, whats the deal the CME margin story? Do we repent this weekend?

http://www.youtube.com/user/houseofthemoon#p/u/3/L6yFnXAZgMA

codematrix's picture

I Fucking Knew it: 4-11-11, 7-11-11

I knew it.  I fucking knew it.

I told you I had that bad feeling about those two dates.

If you remember:

4-11-11
7-11-11
(4+7)-11-11 = 11-11-11

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/80748#comment-80748

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/80771#comment-80771

I sold everything Thursday except some GPR (GPL). 

These bastards should all be shot. 

codematrix

 

Planters's picture

LCS visit this weekend

OK, so CME looks for a MASSIVE Liquidation to occur on Monday. So I am thinking along with everyone else,  there is going to be a super duper smackdown coming on Monday. If that is the case would it then be plausible to visit the LCS and drop off some Krugs and CMs at 1755 on Saturday only to buy them back on Tuesday Morn ?

Santa says VIOLENCE I think this is what he was getting at, if it really will produce the SELL, or will investors be able to fork up the cash ?

kliguy38's picture

RELEASE the KRAKEN

Shitstorm com'n.........if accurate then all hell will break loose...

Hammer's picture

TBTF

Warren Peace's picture

RE: CME DEFCON 1

Lucky for us.... Gold and especially silver margins have already been increased, forcing a lot of leveraged players to liquidate.

So maybe PMs will outperform but....... they may still get caught up in the Tsunami style downdraft of everything else.

Recently we have explored the possibility that the elites are major players scooping up the PM s when they knock the prices down. Following that logic, could this be the logical eventuality that will allow the elites to acquire massive amounts of 'stuff' at pennies on the dollar? I mean, they really do want to own the whole world, right?

Since I see no way to stop their nefarious plans, I plan to at least pick up some of this stuff for me and mine so that maybe we can escape being their slaves. Gold and silver....you bet, and whatever else goes on sale.

Happy hunting!

Dr Durden's picture

Interesting Santa interpretation

Quoted directly from jsmineset.com from 11/3

Quote:
Dear Extended Family,

Gold is headed now into the $2000s with extreme violence.

Regards, 
Jim

​When he said "no lower than $1584" after the big leg down (and nailed it) I'm going to assume that unless he specifically states so, we ain't gonna take it out to the downside.

​Maybe it's just me, but I'm assuming the violence will take place AT the previous all time high and toward $2000. Maybe back and forth 4-5 times with $100 swings.

​I also remember M. Armstrong stating something to the effect that November would be a violent/volatile experience.

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