TFMR Podcast #5 - Jim Comiskey
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Late Thursday, I had the opportunity to visit with Jim Comiskey, Senior Market Strategist at MF Global.
Jim is a true veteran of the commodity trade. In my opinion, the insights and wisdom gleaned from almost 30 years of trading make Jim's observations considerably more valuable than the average "analyst". On a daily basis, you can find Jim's opinions here:
but you can also find Jim on the MF Global YouTube channel:
http://www.youtube.com/user/mfglobal
This podcast is a bit different from the others in that it flows like two old farts commiserating over a beer. (Sorry, Jim.) All that seems to be missing are background noises from a juke box and a pool table. That said, I think you'll find it entertaining and informative. TF
Jim Comiskey

Jim Comiskey is a senior account executive with ADM Investor Services in Chicago. He has been involved in the financial industry for more almost 30 years, starting his career in 1983 with Drexel Burnham Lambert, and later at E.F. Hutton, Geldermann, Credit Lyonnais and Lind-Waldock/MFGlobal. Jim was a member of both the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He believes discipline is critical in every trade. He helps clients formulate an appropriate strategy using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to identify potential trading opportunities with trend channels.
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Saturday, October 22, 2011


Comments
New Podcast Page
I hope everyone likes this new podcast page.
We raised funds for it last month and this is the finished product.
Thank you all for making it possible!!
Been waiting for this, awesome!
Been waiting for this, awesome!
1st (sort of, lol)
Cheers!
Thanking you TF
Have a great day!
This could get interesting very quickly
EU Weighs New Fund to Attract Outside Money
By Tony Czuczka and Fred Pals - Oct 22, 2011 9:48 AM ETSat Oct 22 13:48:21 GMT 2011
European finance ministers are considering setting up a fund to entice outside investors to buy troubled euro-area government bonds, as they struggled over how to tame the Greece-fueled debt crisis, said a person familiar with the matter.
The investment vehicle was one of two options being weighed, along with using the European Financial Stability Facility to boost the rescue firepower from 440 billion euros ($611 billion) currently, the person said.
“The principle that we leverage the EFSF with private money is being subscribed by everyone, but the level of success is uncertain,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager told reporters on the second day of crisis talks in Brussels. “How much can we raise, that is being looked at.”
Europe’s room for maneuver narrowed yesterday with a report that Greece’s economy is deteriorating, piling on pressure to build a stronger anti-crisis firewall by a self-imposed Oct. 26 deadline. Measures being considered include a boost in bailout funds to 940 billion euros, deeper writedowns on Greek debt, and a demand that banks increase Tier 1 capital to 9 percent by mid-2012.
Stocks and the euro rallied yesterday on signs that warnings from global leaders including President Barack Obamahave jolted European policy makers into action. ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-22/eu-weighs-new-fund-to-attract-o...
Only a matter of time...
Yemen’s Capital Rocked by Explosions
By Mohammed Hatem - Oct 22, 2011 10:46 AM ETSat Oct 22 14:46:17 GMT 2011
Yemen’s capital was rocked by explosions and gunfire tonight as forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh battled tribal opponents in the city’s north.
At least 10 people died and dozens were wounded after the army shelled several districts with artillery and mortars.
Walid Qassem, who lives in the city’s north, said five civilians were killed in al-Thawara zone after they were hit by shells.
He said he saw their bodies in a mosque as they were being prepared for burial.
“There is a terrible destruction and damage of the houses. I have seen big buildings being rocked by shells,” he said in an interview.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mohammed Hatem in Dubai at [email protected]
Gold price prediction chart 2012-2017 - unexpectedly high prices
Yes, I was not expecting the outcome You see below as it was not present in 2011-2013 prediction charts. I hope many of You like it here, though that was not my intention, nor the fact major moves coincide with the USA election cycle. I would not worry about gold/silver ration since this is only short period of financial chaos where settling of ratio can not happen, it seems so.
Same chart with better resolution and more explanations /links is posted here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34702#p34702
As usual in Sapo's Joint, You can get really good resolution by clicking on graph, and then on zoom+ symbol on the top left corner:
For comparison, please visit also Silver chart:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=680#p34623
CLOSE TO BOTTOM IN GOLD & SILVER!!!!
GOLD & SILVER TO TREND TO HIGH AS CHRISTMAS RALLY TO KICK START AFTER OPTION EXPIRY.
CHECK THE FOLLOWING CHARTS.
jC and mrF
this is a real bleSSing here. jC is the only youtube i wiLL check out m-f.
and the new location is swEEt. gOOd work there tOO. if i could and i can so i wiLL say the only buMMer here is the delay? last thursday gaDDafi was alive and so was al davis. things have seriously changed in the last 8 days. WTF carson palmer is a raider!
Turd, thanks for the podcast.
Turd, thanks for the podcast. Well done!
nice Turd Ferguson
Thanks a trillion.
last Thursday
means two days ago, the 20th.
Best podcast yet Turd
Best Podcast yet Turd. A+++
Slight formatting issue...
Noticed the social networking icons aren't quite right when the podcast is made "sticky." Will do a quick adjustment for now and look into it.
Old futures jokes
- Selling something you don't have to someone who doesn't want it anyway.
- I've got a Mexican Spread on. I'm short 1 contract of soybeans and long 1 plane ticket to Mexico.
Very Nice
Very Nice Turd. JC's spidey senses on high alert as well. Hmmm.
Probably my favorite so far. Thanks.
BSD
Print, Baby, Print
Who's with me on this? It's time. Let's print print print.
Great job Turd
That was a stand up interview. Very nice!
What's it going to take
to separate the paper from the physical?
Is the PAGE (Pan Asian Gold Exchange) going to do it?
When does the PAGE start trading?
Will it take a dollar collapse?
I believe my best possible position is 100% physical. Paper are as paper does.
Great conversation
The part about the ETF's being untradeable and us being stuck when the market is closed hit home. What a helpless failing it is.
Great job again TF
Great Podcast, Turd....
Thanks!!!
Hope everyone is having a peaceful, recharging kind of weekend.
Carry on Comrades
for the Big Kahuna
This is a collection of some of the best Nebraska Cornhuskers highlights ever, all put together in one amazing video. Once you see this, you will see the tradition of Husker football at it's best. Includes 70's, 80's, 90's, and 2000's clips... from Jerry Tagge to Johnny Rodgers to Mike Rozier to Tommy Frazier to Matt Davison and even to Eric Crouch. A MUST SEE!!!
Excellent Podcast
Definitely like listening to Jim every day.
Great Interview Turd
The two of you should set up a one day seminar/conference where we could watch you guys can talk for hours on stage. I'll set up the popcorn and fried dough stands.
A few threads ago, someone posted the melt values of coins, specifically nickels. I tried to find it again but missed it. Anyway, has anyone given thought to stacking nickels in case the currency does go up in smoke? Seems you can exchange paper dollars for them all at a discount to melt price, but still use them as currency if needed. "Hi, I would like to buy some farmland with these 2 million nickels please." Logistically, storage may be an issue.
Keep up the great work Turd. Love the forum and the many contributors.
Humble
The Best Yet
Better and better we go in Turdville.
Thanks so much. You guys were/are great together; felt like a fly on the wall listening to high level conversation; way to share!
As Michael Valentine Smith said, "I am just an egg".
The internet cuts both ways
I don't know how this would skew things;
Privacy and secrecy are very real concerns with this tool. Everything said on this forum, and all others will be recorded and searchable 100yrs from now.
Even "lost" Presidential emails will be found.
http://venturebeat.com/2011/10/21/anonymous-occupy-wall-street-police/
If I was in and out
First, I'd want to be on the floor. Those guys have an inherent advantage over everyone else. I think the trader lingo is they have an edge. The gamer lingo would be they're OP. If it's the same money/points/honor/whatever, I'd rather be in the overpowered role and not the other way around. Skill is good, but inherent edges are even better.
And if I was in and out, I'd pick something that wasn't as obvious as gold or silver. There's massive political motivation to control those two markets.
I often thought about moving to Chicago and trying to get on the floor, and as I understand it, you start out as a runner, but they've probably computerized all of that by now.
Who going to watch the watchers?
I always have some vague hope that if a trend starts in the UK, or Canada that it'll catch on in the US.
Accounting auditors;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8842094/...
You, Mr/Ms Cartoonist who posted here
once before a week or so ago looking for someone who had an image of something or other. I keep having this recurring dream about all of this market stuff and I thought it might be material for a cartoon. Perhaps it would be something you might like to try to draw. Has to do with EvilEmpire, a DOW chart, Transportation, Mid East conflict, Food, Nuclear, Hope, and so on. The funny part comes in the Short concept of it. PM me if you would please. Blessings to all reading and posting here.
Speaking of evil empires
Anonymous may have found something. Like a use for themselves.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/22/anonymous-hacks-lolita-city_n_1...
Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Prepper Dad? Even Robert Kiyosaki Is Warning
Hey Turd, just wanted to say
Hey Turd, just wanted to say thanks again for the podcasts. Could you also link that one you did with Jim Rogers? Not sure if you did any others before that can't remember. But I think you did a couple interviews on other shows. Those would be cool to see in the archive too.
Libya perched on a slippery path / who gets the oil?
Libya perched on a slippery path
Troubled country's road to oil riches remains treacherous after fall of Gadhafi
By Jonathan Fahey and Chris Kahn
Associated Press Updated: October 21, 2011, 11:44 PM
The Italian oil and gas firm Eni, which operates this gas compression plant on the shore of Mellitah, Libya, is beginning to assess the condition of its plant in order to restore production.
NEW YORK -- Enormous oil wealth lies thousands of feet below Libya, but whether it will be claimed -- and by whom -- now that Moammar Gadhafi is gone is very much an open question.
Drilling and shipping equipment has been damaged in the Libyan civil war, land mines must be cleared around oil fields, and a legal framework for how oil money is collected and distributed must still be worked out.
Whatever government is formed could open vast regions of Libya for drilling at reasonable terms -- or it could demand that foreign oil companies pay exorbitant royalties or require them to build infrastructure in exchange for access to oil.
Libya sits on the biggest reserves of oil in Africa. Those resources could help Libya recover from Gadhafi's decades-long corruption and the civil war. Or the oil could be kept out of reach by political chaos, crumbling infrastructure or violence.
"It's extraordinary how the Gadhafi regime squandered so much oil wealth and left [Libya] a deprived country in terms of infrastructure," says Daniel Yergin, chairman of energy research firm IHS CERA and author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power," a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry. "The country will need oil revenues to rebuild and recover."
http://www.buffalonews.com/business/article603039.ece
Props to the mods
:
Breakfast of Champions
Oats, Orange Juice and Puppies.
Turd 2012
Algorithms, Bullion and Criminals
At the link to the S.E.C. below – there is an archive of “fails to deliver equity” data whose original source is the DTCC [Depository Trust Clearing Corporation].
http://www.sec.gov/foia/docs/failsdata.htm
What is presented below is an analysis of September 2011 “fails to deliver” equities which are understood to represent physical gold and silver bullion in the market place. The individual instruments are aggregated on a coloured, daily gross ounce basis to show the serial and systemic nature of the DRAMATIC SHELL-GAME build in [naked] short ounce equivalents – which, when one considers the Jeffrey Christian Constant. It was back in March, 2010 – at CFTC hearings in Washington that expert testimony was given by C.P.M. Group Chairman, Jeffrey Christian where he explained,
Precious metals are financial assets - and like currencies, T-Bills and T-Bonds they trade in paper at a multiple of a hundred times the underlying physical.
Using the “Jeffrey Christian constant” that 100 ounces of “paper metal” can expected to be transacted for every ounce of physical – we can “model” by “grossing-up” the effect of “understood-to-be” physical sales [but really a criminal, naked-short, shell game] by a factor of 100 to understand the amount of futures selling we should expect in response to any serial, systemic, pre-meditated, criminal, naked-shorting.
This sheds new light on the dramatic decrease of Large Commercial Net Shorts [LCNS] on COMEX we have experienced in September 2011....
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-algorithms-bullion-and-criminals-the-abc-s-of-understanding-precious-metal.aspx?article=3669716960G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Rob+Kirby
Conclusions:
The data above outlines an algorithmic, naked-shorting, shell-game which has been perpetrated on our Capital Markets in a co-ordinated fashion with the complicity of the CFTC, the U.S. Treasury, The Federal Reserve and quite possibly the S.E.C. as well. The object of this criminal exercise is/was to create a plausible path for bullion banks to reduce their systemic, serial gold and silver short positions while hopefully maintaining some illusion of “free markets”.
The large, main-line precious metals ETFs [the ones sponsored by the likes of J.P. Morgan, Barclays, HSBC et al] were created for a reason folks. They were developed to serve as “tools” to enable ongoing manipulation of the traditional inflation sanctuary metals – suppressing their prices in the face of MASSIVE, GLOBAL, FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT.
The shell-game outlined above is VERY REAL, is being conducted by depraved lunatics we call our “leaders” and has severe geo-political and economic implications.
We better start dealing with this in a more transparent manner or humanity has a date – in the very near future – with Armageddon.
Got physical gold and/or silver yet?
al-sadr will be lucky to survive until the withdrawl
Maliki Takes Hard Line on American Withdrawal
By SAM DAGHER
BAGHDAD—Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Saturday that disagreement between Baghdad and Washington over the issue of immunity for American soldiers from Iraqi law was the main obstacle to reaching a deal to maintain an American military presence in Iraq beyond the end of the year.
Mr. Maliki also signaled that there would be no compromise on this matter even in further discussions to keep a small contingent of American trainers and advisers.
"When the issue of immunity was brought up and the Iraqi side was told that the American side won't leave a single soldier without full immunity and the Iraqi answer was that it's impossible to grant immunity to a single American soldier, negotiations stopped regarding the numbers, location and mechanics of training," Mr. Maliki told reporters in Baghdad.
Meanwhile, in the first reaction from firebrand Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to President Obama's announcement, the official website of his political movement posted on Saturday a photograph of him in military fatigues with a rifle propped on a desk. The image was accompanied by a scanned document in which he responds to a follower's query about a possible increase in U.S. personnel at the embassy in Baghdad after the end of the year.
"They are all occupiers and must be resisted after the end of the [withdrawal] period," wrote Mr. Sadr, who has been among the most vociferous opponents of all U.S. military presence in Iraq...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204485304576647060539551484.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Economics: How Screwed Are We This Week?
"The self-imposed deadline for solving the eurozone debt crisis is moving. With the German and French governments at loggerheads over the size of the bailout mechanisms and over the details of its reform, hopes are fading that an agreement will be reached on Sunday.
The two governments said on Thursday night that a comprehensive plan would be announced by the middle of next week at the earliest.
Just like Camping’s forecasts, every hard deadline in Europe seems to soften as it is breached. Sunday was the absolute latest, but now it could be November." (continued)
your guest just illustrated
your guest just illustrated why the comex is not about to run out of silver.
traders have little interest in taking delivery.
PMI group seized
The mortgage insurer PMI group seized in Arizona
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PMI-unit-seized-by-Arizona-rb-3933843808.h...
They do these things on the weekend.
Can this be at all related to the sell off of the primex?
Thanks Turd
Great interview. Chalk up another for "something big" is gonna happen soon. Let's have that popcorn ready!
But until then - WEEKEND FRIVOLITY #2 - SOME TOY TRAIN TECHNO FROM 1991.
Fan(f**kinturd)tastic podcast
Sweet Turd! A joy to listen to
Keep doing what you're doing because I, as a member of Turdtown, love what you do!
RaRa
Great Pod Cast!
Hey Turd, Great interview w/ Comiskey!
The Page looks really good too. Keep on Keepin' on!
– Another Sign of China's Growing Role in the Gold Market
Renminbi Kilobar – Another Sign of China's Growing Role in the Gold Market
by Alena Mikhan and Andrey Dashkov
This week the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (CGSE) – a bullion exchange based in Hong Kong – started trading gold quoted in Chinese yuan. The contract, called Renminbi Kilobar Gold, is promoted as offering investors a "double safe haven" – exposure to both gold and an appreciating currency. This line of thought nicely accompanies China's intention to boost the yuan's international appeal. It is expected that this product will attract retail and institutional investors alike from both the Chinese mainland and overseas.
Whether or not the yuan can deliver its part of the "double safe haven plan," Renminbi Kilobar Gold trading in the first day was strong, with 322 traded gold contracts totaling 112 million yuan (or US$17.5 million). The settlement price ended up at 346.95 yuan per gram, or $1,693.9 an ounce.
This is yet another sign of how fast the gold investment sector is growing in China. In 2010 investment was up 70% over 2009. In Q1 and Q2 2011 gold investment rose by 123% and 44% over the same quarters of 2010 respectively. At such a pace, the Chinese market seems to be swallowing virtually every ounce of gold it is offered. Haywood Cheung, President of the CGSE, expects their new product to boost these already-growing volumes.
To make trading convenient for overseas investors, trading hours have been set for 8 a.m. to 3:30 a.m. the next day, Hong Kong time. Traders may choose to settle their trades either in cash or with spot gold delivery. Also, there is apparently a mechanism for investors to buy with US dollars.
The main goal of this investment tool seems to be promotion of the Chinese currency across the region and on the global scale. However, the impact – intentional or otherwise – on Chinese demand may potentially have positive implications for the price of gold.
We would not be surprised to see a similar offering in India soon and will continue monitoring such developments to make sure our readers are among the first to know if anything changes.
Did someone mention Argentina..
Default reference material.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002)
Best Podcast Of all!
I love the laid back conversational format, moar!
Explanation to high gold:silver ratio from latest charts
Is here ( its 80:1 in 2016 and even 90:1 in end of 2014):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=700#p34719
Basically, worldwide recession driven demand collapse plus inability to take gold's role as monetary safe heaven based only WONDEROUS STORIES of experts. At least until some major country does not monetize silver- but my graphs only reach 2017.
News on China
News 1: Just read an article in Nature (Oct 20, 2011) about Obama is using NASA and OSTP (Office of Science and Technology Policy) to promote technology collaboration with China.
Quote: "The US National Science Foundation (NSF) opened an office in Beijing in 2006, and the US Department of Energy (DOE) founded a US$150 million Clean Energy Research Center with China in 2009.
...
NASA administrator Charles Bolden visited the country last year and invited Chinese officials to visit NASA facilities in return."
My comment: US taxpayers are paying to give away advanced technology to China.
News 2: A different article (Nature, Oct 20, 2011) covers China's increasingly becoming aggressive in its foreign territory claim. It claims that the entire South China Sea (including disputed territories of Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal) belongs to China. Its marine scientists are ordered to use the map that include such territories in any publications they publish. It also sends geology expedition ships and robots to the disputed territories. This makes Vietnam, Philipine, Japan, Malaysia, uncomfortable. What is the motivation?
Quote: "The disputes are decades old, but reports of oil deposits - estimated at anywhere from 1.6 to 21.3 billion recoverable barrels - and significant mineral resources are now raising the stakes".
My comment: peak resources and declining US power means rising regional powers and regional confrontation.
Bike Ride Thoughts
traders (Norcini & others) keep talking about the impact of the margin requirements.
But, do you think it's a barrier to a bull run?
Comiskey makes a good point on limited time to invest.
(technically continues open until 4:30),but then resets to the 12:30 price, for the next days
opening mark. So, really that gives a GLD or SLV trader.. 4 hrs to trade out of a 24 hour day
February 2011 Graph for Comparative Analysis:
Below is a graph I right clicked and saved in February 2011 of this year. It compares the internet
boom, the housing boom & then gold, which for purposes here, can be used as a rough draft proxy
(sort of), for silver as well. Notice it's before a dip occurs; of which we've had two since.
Is Silver the Next Apple?
I read this article last week on KWN, where the writer asks if silver,
to investing in apple? Most of you probably saw the article, for
those who haven't, it offers a unique opinion.
Here's some quotes from the article;
“Bottom line, you have to suffer the tests of your convictions to catch the major trends.”
“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.
I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money”.
Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/18_KWN_Special_-_Is_Silver_the_Next_Apple.html
Debate featuring CPM's Jeff Christian & GATA's Murphy, battle it out on silver and gold manipulation
p.s. How many hat tips is that video worth (priceless)?
We need more of these debates (very cool), to help build awareness.
Effing awesome, flag spam is gone?
Russian house repair spam above & the ability to flag it is gone from my account view. Lol!
Silver Fact
You can shave in the reflection on the Queen's cheek on a 2012 10oz Kook! I just did it. Wife says I'm crazy. Go figure! :-)