What do you think about gold in here? Turd is getting skittish, but I feel like the longer it hangs around in this area, the more I like it. 1528 as I type.
Turds Bottom #2 and the 50 day
June 16, 2011 - 4:38pm
#22
Level
June 16, 2011 - 10:32pm
#24
LevelHeaded stick with your TA
The whole atlee perspective (and his on your work) is a distraction.
Your work is pretty much pure TA. Atlee and Turd both use other factors in making statements and predictions.
It's a style difference. TA can always be backed by math and yet the math works until it doesn't.
I follow all of you and then do my own thing anyway. Having been in the forecasting business for years I've seen a lot and there isn't one best method even though it would be easier to have a best method than to find best forecasters.
Really like reading your work. Thanks for contributing.
June 16, 2011 - 10:59pm
#25
maybe
Maybe it goes to 150 MA maybe not. Maybe it goes down, maybe it goes up, - no matter. The point is to make money. To that end I will be buying some every 10 points down, tweaking my buys into a pyramid when necessary. If I spend all my time guessing about 'the bottom' or the next time cycle or whatever someone else said I will not only tie myself into a knot but I will be spending too much time on the wrong thing imo. Wherever it goes I hope to respond on all pulldowns,weakness and sales.
June 16, 2011 - 11:00pm
#26
Level
I am jittery about this summer/fall in general. My crystal ball is just really cloudy right now and I fear volatility in all directions. But for right here, right now, I feel good about gold.
I agree with Happy's post. I like your posts. I like atlee's posts too. I can digest it all and make up my own mind. I don't see why the butting heads all the time. But I digress...
June 16, 2011 - 11:32pm
#27
Summer Up?
I think I am beginning to lean towards your camp LH - however I am not ready to commit yet. If I see a downswing with support or an upside breakout I think I may go in.
June 17, 2011 - 11:25am
#28
Happy is as happy does
My feelings betray me again. You're right, hat tip to you for reminding me to tend to my own knitting.
I trimmed here at 1540. There is resistence at 1542 and we stopped cold right at it. Also see the chart (if I can attach it correctly). This is a chart from goldprice.org. It shows 3 days of gold trading on 1 chart. I like it because you can clearly see signs of market participants action at the same time each day. Please note how we have topped at 10AM ET for the third day in a row. I may put back on the contracts I trimmed at 12 or 12:30 ET, or if we break and hold above 1543. If we close weak today, I could easily see one last SCARY day that spikes down to 1510-1520 (bracketed by the 50day and recent low of 1511 and the rising triple bottom trendline at around 1519). A not-so-scary spike could take us to 1531 without much effort. If we close above 1545, my guess is we've probably seen the worst of it. Silver still isn't running like it should so I'm maybe leaning towards one more selling spike to clear out the wishy washy longs.
June 17, 2011 - 11:34am
#29
The value of TA
That's a powerful chart. Right freaking on just prior to 10 am. 3 days.
I've been trying to trade that spike but I don't use market orders and have had to guess where it would top. Last two days I set my buy just a teeny tiny bit high and missed. Today I moved it down and took it before the maximum peak. In silver not gold but similar charts.
Wondering where that volume comes from and if it is a strategy of a big player to set up bull players. But that's not TA ;)
LevelHeaded - to add to my comments from the other day. I've worked with forecasters who are amazing yet use vastly different processes and even fight among themselves. I used to think it was about ego and some of it is for sure. Nowadays I think it's about loving their work and wanting to pull other strong forecasters into it.
June 17, 2011 - 12:00pm
#30
School of fish or move telegraphing?
That is a good question.
Are big players "alerting" others to play along with them which enhances the moves they can "create"?
Are moves by big players being "noticed" and then herd traders front running those trades?
I really don't know which it is or if it's something else entirely. I will say that I've seen it on the way and on the way down. If you buy in to the "EE wanting to crush the metals" argument, then it makes sense for them to sell at the same time over and over. This will encourage other traders to join them and they can have a larger effect with less fire power. Maybe it's the same on the way up; BoS are saying, "I'm in, come join me. I'll put a floor in and you'll be safe".
It's interesting speculation. One thing is for certain, whomever it is in both directions, they aren't trying to be discreet.
June 17, 2011 - 12:53pm
#31
Trimming turned into chopping
I sold most of my holdings at 1540. There are 3 big hurdles left. 1543, 1547, and silver needs to get going. I would prefer if silver was leading. I'm a buyer on a break above 1547 with silver participation or a spike low next week.
Good luck all.
June 17, 2011 - 1:33pm
#32
Happy to find LevelHeaded andHappyNow finally
Always enjoy reading your guys analysis.
This place is huge, glad I find your guys at last.
June 17, 2011 - 5:40pm
#33
Padme et al, glad you found me
Whoever et al is that is.
After we clear 1600 and it becomes obvious that the 2011 Summer Doldrums we're just a mirage to trip us all up, I'll start a new forum. Turd's #2 and the 50day will not be relevant any longer. I'm not sure how many people care what my analysis says but judging by the fact that this forum has 800 views (far higher than any other gold forum) there must be some that do. Maybe we should set up shop in the silver forum since that's where everyone seems to gather? hmmmm...I don't know.
Anyway, maybe we should call it:
A LevelHeaded view of the markets
or
Crooked trading with LevelHeaded
Any suggestions?
Today's finish was strong. We have been continuing to pound through resistance levels, descending trendlines, and silver even started to get a little frisky by day's end. We are still below the final resistance lines of 1543 and 1547 but we did not give up our gains into the close. Barring some big adverse news over the weekend from Europe I'd say we are headed higher with maybe only a not-so-scary spike. Maybe 1531. We will of coarse have to contend with 1550-1555 and 1578 as old highs but I think once we get through 1547 our biggest problem will be the collapsing bollinger band which is just over 1550 right now. There's no way to know how gold will react to it until we reach it. So, we just have to wait and see.
June 17, 2011 - 5:51pm
#34
Glad too
Hi level, glad I found you too.
Been so engrossed on the silver board, I haven't really looked around the rest of the site til now!
I'm also a fan of the 3 day charts, really helps show patterns.
Any thoughts of silvers moves next week with it's "frisky" finish?
June 17, 2011 - 5:53pm
#35
I'd keep it in the Gold area.
I'd keep it in the Gold area. There's enough people watching every tick of the silver market.
Call it whatever you'd like. Use Level Headed in the name, or just something more generic like Gold Trader, or whatever.
June 17, 2011 - 6:04pm
#36
Hey NCOT, what's up buddy?
You've got me with hat tips. Good for you! I love London, what a killer city. My step daughter is a US Olympic team hopeful for the London games. She (we) went to Beijing in 2008. She placed 9th I think.
Well I like silver here. Tight action is good action, just like May 18ish to 23rd. I want to see silver leading though. I agree with Turd that silver should have topped at about 40 instead of 50. If it had, this pullback wouldn't look nearly as frightening (a 15% pullback wouldn't seem like a broken chart at all and that's the way I look at it). In this next run up I want to see silver get to about 65 and gold get to 2100. So that's about a 100% increase in Silver from the recent lows and a 50% increase in Gold from the recent lows.
June 17, 2011 - 6:05pm
#37
Name
How about Gold Headed?
June 17, 2011 - 6:09pm
#38
Tips
Thanks!
Have to say I don't know who the hell is tipping me, I noticed I had more so tipped you to, well, tip the balance!
Gonna do some reading to tip which side of the silver fence I'm on, may wait for a little pull back on gold before I build on the longs. I hate buying on highs!
June 17, 2011 - 6:17pm
#39
I like it
How about Gold Headed Trading?
other suggestions?
June 17, 2011 - 8:02pm
#40
I sure don't like this, let's see how this effects Sunday open
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June 17, 2011 - 8:11pm
#41
Don't be puzzled
I am nobody. I posted in the old shop just couple of times then I was locked out because my google account.
Anyway, I have been reading your levelheaded comments and they are helpful because I tend to get emotional in trading.
It's a great idea to set a shop here or in silver forum.
I would wish you talked about gold and silver regardless where the shop is.
I just covered my equity short position and now I am 100% cash.
I planed to either side line or play short in the summer,
Gold looks great today, I start to worry the train leaves without me.
Maybe buy a little when dip comes next week.
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Sorry, I haven't been on the site for a couple days. Yeah, I like gold here. I've said for weeks that I think this Summer will be a payer not a Slayer. Turd's been skittish for weeks and Atlee's been doomsday for weeks. They are both firmly in the Summer Doldrums camp. It's a popular camp to be in considering 8 or 9 of the last June/Julys have been crap. Atlee's got the hat tips and the followers. I hope he's not encouraging people to short here because if we make a big move he's going to be leading everyone to slaughter. I'm happy for him to short.
I'm pleased to see that James Turk and others are on my side.
I've got my stops in below the 50day MA. If we break it, I think we'll go to the 150day MA. My belief is we'll hold.
The main thing I don't like is that rounded top in gold.
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