Turds Bottom #2 and the 50 day

49 posts / 0 new
Last post
LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Turds Bottom #2 and the 50 day

TF called TF#2 bottom after the May 17th 50 day moving average bounce. Typically, long term (significant) bottoms have been put in at the 150 day MA. This has held for the last 3 years. Go pull up a daily chart of gold (or GLD) and add a 150 day moving average. A weekly chart with a 33 week MA will work also.  You will see that since the beginning of 2009 it has held 7 times. 

This implies that Turds#2 is faulty (Turd's #1 was off the 150 day MA). In addition, we are in the mythical Summer Doldrums. What I put out for discussion is this: does the 50 MA hold? If not, does that mean we are destined to retest the rising 150 day MA which is currently around 1440ish?

My contention is at the end of cycles the game changes and we won't test the 150day MA right now.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:31

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Clarification

My contention is the 50day MA will hold and Turds#2 will hold and the 150 day MA will not be tested this summer.

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

Dr Durden
Dr Durden's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 5371
Posts: 730
I'm thinking we test. Look at

I'm thinking we test. Look at the time cycles - it's been a test in Jan or so and then again in July for a pretty predictable 6-7 month span.

If not, then I fear we've gone too far too fast and then would set up for a sharp reversal correction at some point. 

[IMG]http://i96.photobucket.com/albums/l173/barnz008/Screenshot2011-06-14at43454PM.png[/IMG]

__________________

Got GIABO?

"It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin

Vypuero
Vypuero's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 3999
Posts: 1110
What was the Bottom #2?

remind me what was TF's bottom number 2?  I actually don't think gold is getting below $1,500 again.

jackmeoff
jackmeoff's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 689
Posts: 85
I dont see it either.

I think we will hold 1500 but we will be here until early August. Just my thought but 1500-1540 for a while. A break below 1500 will bring a fast move down towards 1455 so unless something big happens gold should stay above 1500. Silver on the other hand is a rollercoaster.

Eric Original
Eric Original's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Posts: 4235
Level

Sorry to hear about your dog.  I've had to put 3 of them down in my life.  It takes a little  bit out of you each time and you never get it back.  :(

__________________

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Caring about my dog

hat tip for sure.

I know no one cares much about other people's pets (which I can understand) but she was the sweetest tempered dog I had ever known. She was a great mother to her pupsand  super with children. I miss her terribly. 

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

caramel
caramel's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 320
Posts: 65
Eric The Original, sweet

Eric The Original, sweet handle :)

uptofreedom
uptofreedom's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 561
Posts: 130
LevelHeaded wrote: My

LevelHeaded wrote:

My contention is the 50day MA will hold and Turds#2 will hold and the 150 day MA will not be tested this summer.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's tested, given the doldrums and all...  The question is whether or not it will hold.  My gut tells me it will, partly due to coming up with no other explanation for the resilience silver's shown, all things considered.  Feels like they're thrown the kitchen sink at us at this point, even risk-on/risk-off can't push silver down past #2.  Still, WTFDIK?

Hard Rain
Hard Rain's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 656
Posts: 132
Gold Eagles

Traded in some silver, which I had a double in, and exchanged for 5 Gold eagles. Got it in the mail today from APMEX. Feels good!

Rain

Eric Original
Eric Original's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Posts: 4235
caramel

Hey buddy,

You were there when that whole "Two Eric's" thing started.  I'm pretty sure "Eric#1" was your invention in the first place!

__________________

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.

tanjr364
tanjr364's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/15/2011
Hat Tips: 31
Posts: 19
my guess...

is it'll test and 50-50 chance fail. i'm saying this based on Alf Fields projections. reaching 1575 very likely marked the end of wave 1 of major wave 3 which began in October 2008. the 150 dma provided support during the entire wave. wave 2 calls for a 16-22percent correction that would violate  the 150 dma for a short period of time.

good news is the 1st wave of the third wave of major 3 should give us new highs by year's end.

sticking to this till proven wrong. we'll know soon

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Third time is a charm?

Gold has now held above the 50day MA for 3 days in a row with rising bottoms. Gold will need to get above the declining trendline (1526) and then the 50MA on the 2 hr chart (1530) to mount a serious assult at breaking the downtrend. So far so good!

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
The first hurdle has been passed

Gold is now only 1.5% off it's recent highs. That was a very big move. Don't be surprised if it needs to back and fill a little to build a stable platform to move to new highs.

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Gold spiked to 1535.7 which

Gold spiked to 1535.7 which is the right at the 20MA on the 2 hr chart and a bottom test of the rising trendline Turd's Bottom #2. Expect some tough sledding here and don't be surprised if we see 1525-1528 today or tomorrow. 

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

Sockeye
Sockeye's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 1234
Posts: 371
Level Headed I have lower

Level Headed

I have lower prices on my cash price on NETDANIA charts.  are you quoting a price from futures contract ???

On Net Dania the high price so far today is 1534++ a little over.  Right now at 1522 ish

__________________

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.

Sockeye
Sockeye's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 1234
Posts: 371
I have the 20 bar moving

I have the 20 bar moving average on the 2 Hour chart at 1522.  about where we are.  There had been a spike up earlier in the day slightly above 1534.  although it is trying to climb once again as I write.  

__________________

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.

Jack-a-Roe
Jack-a-Roe's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 1
Posts: 4
Excellent Analysis Level

I agree with Level that if gold breaks below the 50 day, we are going to repeat the same pattern of dropping down to the 150 day (around 1440), and in the same 6 month cycle noted above by Dr. Durden, putting a downside price target of around 140 on the GLD by the end of July-ish.  Seasonals and recent price patterns favor that scenario, but I just heard James Turk thinks we are due for a big summer metals rally, so yeah, WTFK?   

Not sure I agree with Level that the 50 day will hold, but the bigger question for me is how to play the downside scenario as a short-term trade (weeks not days) and make some money.  I'm in all cash right now, but if Gold starts to violate the 50 day, then I'd consider buying some August or Sept GLD puts in the low 140's.  Any other ideas? 

Fighting Gael
Fighting Gael's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 546
Posts: 71
nice famous quote

Vypuero wrote:

remind me what was TF's bottom number 2?  I actually don't think gold is getting below $1,500 again.

ahhh, famous last words.......... heard many times before.........and many different places & amounts

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Good plan Jack a Roe

Sounds like you have it handled on the downside. Why not take a stab here with a stop below the 50 day MA? You are only risking about 1% since we are still close. 1526 vs 1509 as I type.

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

LevelHeaded
LevelHeaded's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 723
Posts: 164
Sockeye, Vypuero

Yes I was quoting a futures contract. 1473.90 was the lowest bottom and TF called the bottom after 1486.50 was put in. Both were just higher than the 50 day MA at the time.

__________________

I ain't fallin' for no banana in my tailpipe ~ Beverly Hills Cop

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Topic locked
Syndicate contentComments for "Turds Bottom #2 and the 50 day"