Silver Wheaton (SLW)

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Phil Gramm
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Silver Wheaton (SLW)

I've been an investor in SLW for almost 2 years. Made money, but this year has been extremely frustrating. If you are an investor in SLW, you know what I am talking about. 

Still holding onto my SLW, waiting for a rebound, but not holding my breath. So tempted to sell, but I keep thinking about the upside potential.

Thoughts?

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:10
rock collector
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Added a little SLW today near

Added a little SLW today near $31.  It seems pretty darn cheap and I am somewhat hopeful that we just touched bottom.
 If you are holding the stock itself, it will eventually come back (barring TEOTWAWKI). 

Owned SLW since 2006. Added incrementally along the way. Bought at every price from $2.76 to $41.  SLW has a tremendous business model.

SLW usually trades at or above the bullion price. At Ag $18, SLW was about $19. Today SLW is about $4 below the bullion price so that should limit downside.
I got burned by options that expired during recent weakness. You can buy a great stock and you can always hold through thick and thin, but options decay.  SLW options are a bit overpriced because it is so high profile and volatile.
Just my 2 cents.
PS  I will also look at selling a few covered calls once the share price recovers a bit.

Rear Flank Downdraft
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Just Bought SLW

Well, I just bought SLW not too long ago when it was upper 30's......and bought some more on some downswings, and, each time I did, it swung further down (I'm currently off -16% since buying).  I, too, liked their business model.

I'm quite new to metals trading and I'm devouring as much as I can from insights, experiences and wisdom here.  And given the perturbation wreaking havoc on this current market, options/futures, etc., are best left to the more equipped and astute until I can learn more and take some more steps.

However, I love research, don't move into things emotionally and am patient.  SLW looks poised to endure, if just by virtue of  the fact it doesn't appear to be operating foolishly in its business practice and as long as they don't replace Smallwood with Prez Humala as CEO wink

banman17
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Cyclic analysis of SLW

Here's the cyclic analysis video of SLW I did for data up to June 14th located here:

http://screencast.com/t/hQLNWuoq

Let me know what you think.

Banman17

bluechip
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Love the SLW

Love the SLW

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hedgehog
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I agree.  With the shared

I agree.  With the shared thesis on this site, I don't know how SLW cannot go higher.  But, it is much like the wealth created in real estate - you must have holding power.  I sold SLW puts at a price that was below the market PPS at the time to get better entry, if assigned.  Well, it looks like I am about to be assigned.  I am fine with this because I did my analysis and wanted to buy at these levels.  As soon as I get assigned, I will sell short dated calls that are modestly out of the money.  I should be able to recoup any losses quickly & likely before the action gets rolling later this year.

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I made money last year and then foolishly sold all may shares

only to buy pretty high and now eating a loss.  Planning to get in on the next little dip, maybe tomorrow

The Bradley Siderograph is showing a peak of strength around the 23-25th or so, give or take a day or two, after a dip into the 20th.

I'm hoping the price action on the video provided by Banman17's video

is correct, because I can sell that high buy!!

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Phil Gramm
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Very nice screencast. I was

Very nice screencast. I was basically planning to hold until the end of the month, and if there is no action upward, sell some of my shares, if not all of them. At that point, I will consider it a sign that there will be no "recovery" of the stock any time soon to upper-30's or even 40's.

I am hoping SLW will bounce along with silver as well. We'll see what happens...

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SLW Business Model

Does anyone know if SLW is still paying their partner companies only $5 to $6 per ounce of silver?  If so, I have concerns that few companies in the future will agree to that low a price.  I also heard about one company buying themselves out of the arrangement, so it is possible.

I owned some SLW at $30 a while back, sold out at about $40... I just cannot really believe in enough in their business model.

rock collector
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SLW Business Model

As I understand it, from an interview I read a while back, SLW will always contract for the same $4 per oz price for any given mine's silver stream. The additional funds that SLW provides will vary depending on ore grades, negotiated percentage of stream, projected life of mine and the current price of silver etc etc. 

Kryptonite for ...
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Dividends

I own this and love the business model. I contacted IR to see if they had considered paying dividends in physical silver. They said they hadn't previously considered it but would pass the idea on to senior management. At this stage the dividend declared is just to make them eligible to be held by certain funds. They plan on retaining earnings for growth, but will pay bigger dividends down the road.

Silvergunn
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Loss of Barnes (old CEO)

This was/is my only concern with SLW. When Peter Barnes left (for a small non-exec Director position) it was very random and struck me as odd! The equity price did not rebound as silver did after the first of the year when he left...

I have a weird feeling that his integrity caused him to walk away after something was co-opted in part of the system? I don't have any hard evidence, but one thing I want to know more is why there was a bit of a snafu in there 1st Quarter deliveries from the miners to the refiners? I did not get any info directly as my friend told me that was what was stated in the conference call, I think?

Anyone have any info on this to add light to the nooks and crannies?

Sterling
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I heard a rumor there was

I heard a rumor there was some sort of shenanigans with the Barrick Pascua Lama stream and that is why Barnes left.  I'll do some more research and find if it holds water and get back to you.

Disclosure: Long and strong SLW

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wasted youth crew
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for anyone that missed it,

for anyone that missed it, here's an interview that jim puplava did with the new slw ceo from 6/1/2011....

http://financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/06/01/randy-smallwood/the-new-ceo-of-silver-wheaton-the-drivers-behind-silver

Rear Flank Downdraft
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Thanks for the link

wasted youth crew wrote:

for anyone that missed it, here's an interview that jim puplava did with the new slw ceo from 6/1/2011....

http://financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/06/01/randy-smallwood/the-new-ceo-of-silver-wheaton-the-drivers-behind-silver

Good interview and quite informative, confirming the point that SLW is still intact with their model in light of the management change, and this should bode well for them for the foreseeable future

readingalot
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I've owned shares in SLW

I've owned shares in SLW since $4.14. Added and held for years. Sold some along the way to fund new ideas. Held through 2008 which taught me a lesson or two. Anyway, after it broke above 40 in March I sold a bunch, and then a bunch more in April when it didn't follow silver higher.

Now I feel that it is again a good value below $30 if the general markets hold and I would be scaling in here if I wasn't already invested. Just an opinion.

Jdawg
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OI Issue an Alert on SLW

Silver Wheaton is turning into a day-trade kind of stock

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R man J
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SLW has provided capital and

SLW has provided capital and has a contract for 20-25% of the silver mined at $4-5/oz. Problem is all miners are undercapitalized for now.

I bought more SLW at $43 in late March/Early April after the Puplava interview.

To quote Patsy Cline, "I'm Crazy",....but I am holding.

I wonder what the dividend will be when Silver's at $114 March-April 2012?

Coryst
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Re:Cyclic analysis of SLW

I found that video very interesting. I know very little about the program your using, can you tell me where I guy can get it to play around with it?

Also, how accurate is it? I get it, that the farther out you are the less accurate, but what is your experience for the 4 day and 8 forecast for accuracy?

Been trading SLW for years, this would be a handy tool to use, if it proves to be accurate.

Cheers,

Cory

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SLW is a Buy

"So tempted to sell, but I keep thinking about the upside potential." (Phil Gramm)

SLW tanked from $47 to $30.  The window to sell has closed regardless of your cost basis.  The whole sector is about to bounce going into July-August.   Silver stocks always overshoot up or down.  The market overshot to the downside so we're about to bounce.

To give fuel to the bounce, we have 2Q earnings, imminent raising of US debt ceiling, some form of QE around the corner, Chinese investment demand at its highest levels ever.  All the pundit spew about "no more QE" is juvenile, constituting political posturing and mass media propaganda.  What's the alternative?  Let the markets waterfall back to pre - QE2 levels thus wasting QE and QE2?  No.

When the silver sector bounces this summer, funds will buy known juggernauts like SLW because that is what funds generally do.  Certainly retail will follow to buy the leaders like SLW.  Small caps will also do well but the small and nano caps carry WAY more risk than SLW.  So if you think you are Charles Bronson, dump your net worth into nano caps.

The stock will go over $50 in the next several months because the currency crisis will force it to do so.  The time to lighten the load will be when SLW is in the $60-75 range but of course, we have to reassess the market at that time to know for sure.

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banman17
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RE: Cyclic analysis of SLW

Hi Coryst,

You asked about the program to do the cycles for SLW.  Here's the link to the software:  http://www.sentienttrader.com/

And by the way, it's very good I must say.  I'll do another update for SLW later tonight after I download the EOD data to give a peek into the future for SLW's potential price action.  I'd say it's better for the 20-40 day forecasts by the way.  It's a bit of an art to reading it, but it does give you a heads up as to when cycles coincide for a down draft, to be then followed by an upturn.  I hope this helps.

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