Rubicon (RBY) is making a move today. Up over 7% before the close. RBY is overdue, I would say, for some good drill reports, bulk sampling, and further info on the marriage with Agnico-Eagle (AEM). Very undervalued situation here.
Yes today certainly was a nice move. More likely to hear about drill results and/or permits though IMO. They have been too quiet recently and I don't like it. I certainly would like to hear more of the plans they have for the AEM money. I hope some of that "other development work" includes infrastructure. If they have been doing additional bulk sampling, it is off the radar of this investor and would potentially change the game. I would welcome it from a high grade zone this time and without a screwup please. We have paid dearly for them not sampling at least one of the high grade areas. If they eventually do it and then update the 43-101 oz counts, IMHO the stock would be in at a very different level.
Regarding AEM, I think it is safer to consider them saavy value investors until we see something different. When I crunch the numbers on the deposit, RBY stock seems too far undervalued for management to seriously consider offers at this time, but I can't possibly know all the influences at any point in time. Until proven otherwise, I expect over time for them to release drilling and permit news, as well as increase the quantity and quality of their OZ count, while they explore financial paths to build the F2 mine that maintain their controlling interest. I believe that Adamson won't let go of this deposit. It's too rich and the land package is too promising to walk away from.
In late June RBY announced their PEA for the F2 or Phoenix property in Red Lake. The market was confused because the wintertime bulk sampling unexpectedly did not sample one of the high grade zones. It sold off, but the PEA has plenty of the shiny stuff inside IMO. The PEA has set up an under-promise and over-deliver situation I think.
AEM bought a 9.2% stake in the company a month later, and today a month after that,
"Franco-Nevada Corporation ("Franco") has purchased all of the right, title and interest of Dominion Goldfields Corporation ("DGC") in the 2% net smelter returns royalty payable on that part of Rubicon's Phoenix Gold Project in Red Lake, Ontario lying beneath the waters of Red Lake (i.e. excluding mining properties covering the land portion of the Project)."
A lot of traders/investors seem to want to conclude that GG will buy F2 (Phoenix) from Rubicon due to their proximity. I don't think it is that clear. I expect the deposit is rich enough for the CEO to shape their destiny a little more than that. It is apparent that at least two other large producers like what they see in the PEA as well as in the 2 earlier resource counts. To me this signals that Rubicon is capable of taking the F2/Phoenix into production and may retain control. It might get interesting though.
Sure would like to hear about the permits, or drilling deep into P. Georges levels from the November 2011 43-101, or on the periphery of the 9 boxes, or at the non-Phoenix properties.
Tough day today for many.
The Dow is back to it's early August low. The banks are trending down past that point. BAC is trying to defend 6.00 with 30 minutes to go. However, the HUI, despite getting absolutely clobbered today, is at this moment, still above it's August lows. Interesting.
IMO Gold is in a huge uptrend. A pull back to near 1650 would be beneficial. If the Dow stabilizes we are good to go. If it doesn't then many stocks of the PM universe become even better value plays during this downdraft.
For now I think it might be interesting to see if your PM stocks are still above their August lows. I don't expect to see a one-day reversal here, but I wonder if some of them might come out of this stretch with stronger looking charts.
FWIW Rubicon recently gave a drilling and permit update just as expected. I want to hear of drilling outside of the 9 boxes at F2.
Is it a good idea to purchase Rubicon very near the same price area that AEM paid just a couple of months ago? I think it is for me and I added Rubicon shares this week. I've seen these smack downs before.
Gold just about kissed it's 200 day average then bounced. It's done similar at times and in retrospect, they have been good longterm entry points. The equities became real cheap for me these last few days. Silver cratered earlier than gold so I added lots of silver shares on Friday, and then I added more Rubicon early on Monday morning.
That was my thinking too when I picked up some Rubicon. I'm willing to be in the same boat as AEM, at somewhere not too far from what they paid.
Don't fight the Tape. Don't fight the Fed.
Buy Strength, Sell Weakness. Stay in Gear with the Tape.
Leave your Opinions at the Door. Sleep Better at Night.
Up a bit on low volume early on today. It was up 3% when at only 11,000 shares. Who knows where it will be later today. When investor interest comes into this stock, there may be quite a rise.
Some of us saw opportunity and bought or added this summer before AEM bought and validated our thoughts. Some also bought when the September-October PM crush brought the price back down into the area of the AEM purchase. Rubicon is closer to its September high than lots of other companies. When it gets above that area its' chart is going to show a lot of strength IMO.
|Rubicon Minerals Corporation - RMX.t is focused on advancing the flagship Phoenix Gold Project in the Red Lake mining camp.|
FWIW Pre market today has VERY unusual volume over 47% of the daily volume, and with it a large price surge.
I also note that some big permits are due before the end of year. I can also dream that Rubicon might soon drill outside of the 9 box area, or even outside of the F2. And they keep building the mine... If you haven't seen some of the latest presentations they are interesting. Here's a new one about operations with loads of pictures and schematics.
(edited with increasing pre-market stats)
There has to be an impending news release in the works. I've kept adding to my position in RBY, thankfully. I see this as a huge home run in a couple years.
The obvious is that with this much volume and the price dramatically higher all day, more people want shares. A bunch of them apparently.
News will always be on the horizon. They are developing a mine and there are a lot of things to happen in that process. I think this trading today is more likely to be people who are new to realizing what F2 is, but either way would be fine by me. There had been some web chatter today about it being a John Doody pick but I cannot confirm that. It doesn't really matter. What counts is that new people are obviously buying today.
There might be a joke in there about Doody and the owner of this site, but I don't want to wade in on that too far.
Update- trading halted near the close.
RMX:TSX | RBY:NYSE AMEX
VANCOUVER, Dec. 2, 2011 /PRNewswire/ - Rubicon Minerals Corporation (RMX:TSX) (RBY:NYSE-AMEX) ("Rubicon") is pleased to announce that the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines ("MNDM") has accepted (approved) its Production Closure Plan as filed for its 100% owned Phoenix Gold Project in Red Lake, Ontario at 3:15 pm Toronto time today. This approval allows Rubicon to continue its development and further construction of the mining facilities for the Phoenix Gold Project.
David Adamson, Rubicon's President and CEO commented, "The approval of the Production Closure Plan is a significant milestone in the development of our Phoenix Gold Project especially considering that we made the initial discovery a little over three and one half years ago. We are committed to both continuing our ongoing consultation with local Aboriginal groups whose traditional territory includes the private lands where the project is located and also building on existing agreements with these groups. To this end we are targeting conclusion of mutually beneficial agreements in 2012 covering the production phase of the project.
We wish to express our appreciation for the support shown to date by local Aboriginal communities and by the people and Municipality of Red Lake where we live and work. We also wish to acknowledge the contribution of the MNDM which supports sound development of mineral projects in the Province. We are proud to be active members of the Red Lake community and are committed to the responsible development of the Phoenix Gold Project in this famous gold district."
While the Production Closure Plan approval provides for continued development and construction, three separate permit applications for amendments to existing approvals remain outstanding. These are the amendment to the Permit to Take Water, the amendment to the Air Certificate of Approval and the amendment to the Industrial Sewage Certificate of Approval. Rubicon currently expects all remaining permits to be in hand by the end of December, 2012.
Since I last posted Rubicon has;
- raised the money to build the mine
- received the final 3 permits for production
- begun drilling deep into the Phoenix (F3) project which may increase the size of the resource significantly IMO.
- 3/29/2012 drill results include core from 1511 m depth. "The majority of drilling to date has been focused on infill drilling from ice-based drill pads and from underground. The majority of the remaining drilling in this program will focus on extending known mineralization and expanding the mineralized system."
- 4/19/2012 DGG webcast. The CEO spoke of current drilling at about 2300-2400 m depth which is at about half the depth of other deposits in the Red Lake area.
- hired the man in charge of Goldcorp's underground drilling
The industry press has noticed this latest hire. Here is a recent article posted to mineweb
"Rubicon said Monday that Goldcorp's director of underground mining, Michael Lalonde, was coming on board to take over as president and CEO."
I believe that each of these things are spectacular.
As if those 9 boxes in their resource model weren't enough for an amazing resource, Rubicon has been drilling beyond the scope of their 9 box targets at the Phoenix project in Red Lake. In my opinion they feel confident that they now have enough infill drilling to identify where to mine ore for the first five years of the mine. I also believe that they are now gathering data that may support interpretations of a much larger resource. From these first three links below we know that they have;
- drilled beyond the 9 boxes in both strike (length) and depth
- much deeper holes to report beyond the 1546 depth reported on 5/14/2012 because they were drilling at 2400 meters depth in April.
- at least 32,000 meters of drilling planned through Q3 and the majority of which will "focus on extending known mineralization and expanding the mineralized system"
3/29/2012 "41,000 metres remain to be drilled before the end of Q3, 2012. This program has two objectives: infill drilling designed to confirm and potentially extend existing gold zones and expansion drilling designed to test for further extensions of known gold mineralization. The majority of drilling to date has been focused on infill drilling from ice-based drill pads and from underground. The majority of the remaining drilling in this program will focus on extending known mineralization and expanding the mineralized system."
4/19/2012 CEO said on DGG webcast that they were drilling at 2300-2400 meters.
5/14/2012 "Currently, there are 32,000 metres planned to be drilled by the end of Q3, 2012 with room to expand this amount should results warrant. "
- deepest reported results to date @ 1546 meters
- drilling outside of the 9 box target area returned 34.5 g/t near surface at 10 meters in depth (hole F2-2012-06)
Yesterday June 1, 2012 was a great day for precious metals, Rubicon, and the miners while the general markets were triggered lower by lousy US unemployment numbers.
Rubicon specifically had huge volume yesterday. Between Toronto and NY it traded over 18 million shares which is seven times the 3 month average. As I said earlier, it's price went higher. Interesting. These charts will update so remember that today is June 2, 2012.
RBY is about to get the pump from Stansberry
Says GG will do a takeover. Good speculation but probably unfounded. Don't think AEM would be selling if true. The reason they bought in in the first place was on the spec that GG would try and come in. I think they bought into gold eagle nearby prior to that being taken over by GG.
Anyway good for some PR and a spike.
June 27, 2012 Rubicon Annual Meeting presentation
http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=168932 (voice with PDF)
Comments from poster "pioneerrubi" claiming to be present at the meeting (also posted about last years' meeting)
This stock has performed poorly for over 2 years. Today it dipped to about $2 again and I consider todays prices to be a very good value in the development cycle of this company. I am long this stock. An updating of the resource is expected in April, they present in Europe in two weeks, and a revised PEA is expected later this quarter. I would prefer that they release news in a more favorable environment than this week has been. I would also like them to develop more frequent and regular communications that are not driven by material news events.
I haven't posted in a long long time, but will say now that this deposit continues to be a very exciting one to me. You can see the construction photos here
I think that with the Cyprus bail-in, that money will flow to metals now with more urgency. IMO when money gets tired of chasing paper metals they will buy the miners to get the product. I feel it is now quite possible for the sector to alter its course this spring.
Just my opinions.
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