Pailin's Trading Corner

No, I'm definitely not shorting at this point.  The volumes on the move up here were impressive (gold, silver, euro, and the various stock index futures).  I even bought back the position I sold not long after I sold it.  After that initial volume spike of 300 comex silver contracts in less than a minute, I bought back the gold about where I sold it.  I thought I was going to regret it, but not yet. (The night is still young)

I've always done the time-of-day trade on top of my long position, so there was only one brief time when I was actually short gold last month.  Overall, January was a very good month for that trade, but since last week it was very weak.  When I've done the trade, it has been more of a way to reduce my leverage, which really has been too high all month.

I will definitely spend more time with the time-of-day trade, but not when my bullishness is so strong.  If you are certain (and correct) about your bullishness, straight long works great.  I'm sure I'll continue to use it to reduce leverage overnight at times.

We could get a repeat of yesterday's smack down, but the volume and the aggressive price action are making me hold my position as is.  I have to go to sleep now, so I'll just "hope for the best".  LOL!

love the pivot trading system...i have to tell ya.

speaking of selling R1 i'd just advise a slight caution there for today as ADP and ISM data is due later.

the report could give impetus for overwhelming 34 if stocks pick n roll.

the H5 R1 could be a peachier spot if indeed selling the first test of R1.

just sayin.

"Made me marginally wealthy last fall and I missed most of the big drops."

Nice to know when people win as well as lose.  Don't be shy.  This is not about showing off, its about stating the facts and offers a reality check.

$1750 and $34 must fall decisively.  I'll look to be a buyer at the open for the ride (if they still haven't fallen by that time) 

January has been too easy for metals.

Seasonal attack coming imo. I always watch the early part of the month for major ambush.  February and March tend down for metals anyway. Early May last year, Dec 4 2010,early September last year, start of January last year,... these were Borg killing fields. I am wary now.

And I enjoy reading Ann Barnhardt but how the hell does anyone trade that stuff? Sinclair is great. But he states his opinion as FACT. This is communicated using the time worn vocal technique in interviews of dropping the ends of his lines. As if the question is closed and there is no room for debate. I would like to know simply just how he knows that we are going to experience major banking default this week? Who is telling him this? Why is his new information suddenly fact?

I love Sinclair but sometimes he comes across like a used car salesman pitching in a lot at closing time.

I'd like to remind everyone that relying on "seasonal" past data and trading patterns was one of the biggest mistakes of 2011.  

The "predictions" from the gurus were almost universally wrong, and led to substantial trading losses for the people who relied on them.

I've found him generally good for broad stroke stuff and not short term stuff.  But he whiffs sometimes on the broad stroke stuff and is usually caught off guard when the USD has medium term runs.  He also isn't a big fan of silver, so he loses some marks for that also in my book.  That being said, he is one of the hearts/souls of the precious metals movement of the past decade and his efforts have been generous and free for all to read and learn from - and that's a great thing. 

Oh yeah, also my very first gold stock purchase/trade back in early 2006 was his company, and it was a winning trade so that's always nice.  Won't buy his company stock these days though, too manipulated and too dangerous to hold over time IMO.