Pailin's Trading Corner

the General receives another star, for honor displayed on the line, restraining troops from foolish glory

maybe miners down today signals further downside in gold and silver. OE is Thursday if this is the case and Friday will then be a definite buy day.

I'm waiting to lighten my gold position between 1am and 5am EST.  Not sure yet exactly when.

I'm hoping for a rise going into Asian hours.

Expecting like others pressure on gold and silver before and after FOMC and options expiration.

What if this FOMC, OE is all smoke and mirrors and silver sky rockets by week's end.  Usually when you see pullbacks like today, its what follows very soon thereafter.

“Recalling the sharp sell-offs in risk assets triggered by the Sept. 21 and Dec. 13 FOMC statement releases, we are mindful of unintended consequences,” Tim Condon, head of Asian economic research at ING Financial Markets Research, wrote in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, the euro EURUSD -0.08% eased to $1.3021, compared with $1.3026 late Tuesday, against the backdrop of unresolved talks between the Greek government and bondholders to restructure the nation’s debt.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-dollar-up-against-euro-yen-before-fomc-2012-01-24

and also...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-gold-regain-its-glitter-2012-01-25?link=MW_story_latest_news

I am not sure who said it, I think the credit of the move goes to SW, but try not to trade against the daily slow stochastics.  If you look you will see that buying at the bottom of the slow stochastics is a much better chance of a winning trade than entering at the top. But with the FOMC hearing today who knows?  

Yep, good call Abe (and SW).

I'm just running with momentum right now.  Stops are tight and I'm still playing small until the bull is loose.  I'm actually looking for a pull-back over the next week or so, but I feel there's another little pop in here before a turn.  You're right though, the FOMC shenanigans could do anything to any market at this juncture... I hear Apple just saved the world with earnings ;)

If not, in the words of Einstein when discussing whether to have faith or not... "Nichts, nichts" If you believe and there is a God, you win.  If there isn't a God, you're the same as everyone else.  Disclosure:  I *believe* in a God about as much as I *believe* in my position.  Stops are tight.

Hey, and thanks for the chart and all your other input dude - much appreciated.  

Tight overnight defensive stops just took the hit at $1660.  

Flat and waiting.    

1665 ad The great plague of London took out 20% of the population..     

The time Zone trade

My observation, it seems that the London beat down starts far earlier than 5am Est  usually around 7:30 Gmt  so 2:30 Est.

Might be worth looking at bringing the long sell point back a couple of hours.. 

I sold both my positions early at $1668.  I was pretty sure we were going to get a beat down so I tried to sell early while it was still high.

If you stick strictly to the times, you are rarely going to hit the optimum times  and you are relying on averages to provide your profit.  This has advantages and disadvantages.

The post I made last night (or the night before) showing the averages of Nov, Dec, and Jan, was partly so that people could see the fluctuations in optimum times over recent months.  Those charts show the optimum times for those months.  Here's the link for the post: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/119606#comment-119606

PA is kind of right.  You can see from the Jan chart that so far this year 2am EST has been the best time to open the overnight short.

I'm just learning how to do the trade and I have been going light or heavy, early or late, depending on what my experience tells me.

If we get below $1650, I'll probably start buying back without waiting until 10am or 2:30pm.

I would expect a strong beat down again tomorrow night.  Probably early, but who knows?  Also, I would expect a slow moving back up tomorrow during NY afternoon / Asain hours.