Good way to look at it
Just want to mention that laboratory studies have shown that in an overpopulated colony of insects, cooperative efforts decrease while aggression increases until the population reverts to a sustainable level.
Are we really that far from our pesty friends?
SW,
I watched the video. MF Global was one thing. The entire nation or world is quite another. But maybe it was an experiment to see if they can get away with it and condition the system.
I have my suspicions that MF Global might have had something do with stopping those standing for delivery against the December silver futures expiration. That if there was a buyers of size group that this event terminated that effort.
I also suspect that this theft will not pass lightly or stand. That it will effectively prevent this from happening again by shinning light on the crime. Yes I read about the Canadian outfit that is supposed to be happening but hasn't yet.
All I can say is that I have my life jacket on and hope that I trip and fall into a life boat.
All this negativity really harshes my mellow. I know it is out there and we have to deal with it but I long for the days of gun smoke and rawhide.
In the end, I know that I will never beat these fockers. If they succeed in their FEMA camp nightmare, all I can do is be sure to take 6 of them with me as I exit this life and begin my journey to the next adventure. (6 shot 357)
I am ready to stop thinking about this and get some sleep before the 3 am revelle.
Don't know who the FEMA camps are for. We built the biggest, most pointlessly expensive embassy in history in Iraq around the same time. Speculating on your own doom is pointless. I just know that if they ever declare martial law I'll probably take my chances walking across the border. What are they gonna do, shoot me?
You're welcome Six! No wonder you can afford fuckloads now! Thank SW as well, as he made the right call.
If I keep this up, I might get an offer from Goldman...
You're welcome Six! No wonder you can afford fuckloads now! Thank SW as well, as he made the right call.
If I keep this up, I might get an offer from Goldman...
Ha ha! Yeah man, imagine if we could all have a taxpayer backstop for our fuckups! Don't worry, I'm sure I'll be giving you some back before long, that is unless we both go get it from Sachs and co. 
Hey dude, can you flip me the link to your stellar GSR research/chart from a while back...?
Cheers
The trade I've been studying is:
1) Short Comex gold 5am - 10am EST.
2) Long Comex gold 2:30pm - 5am EST.
I've been trying to analyze it from different angles to get a feel for the risk/reward. I'll post my stuff when it's ready, but so far I've discovered a few things about it.
My studies seem to show:
1) The trade was hugely profitable last year, but it was INSANELY profitable during the months of August and September, 2011. Even if you completely ignore the profit of these months, the trade was still modestly profitable (about 3x being strictly long).
2) It was not profitable every month. In general, the losses were very modest compared to the gains, even when ignoring August and September.
3) The risk/reward seems very high. The worst case losses are significantly less than being strictly long, for example.
I'll post the data when I get time.
It is looking certain that I am going to give it a try. But for now, I'm just sitting on my longs.
First up, thanks heaps for the hard work and shared info, Titus. You've really cracked something that many of us were merely intuiting, mostly patchily.
My little concern though at this point is that often with trend changes (such as we may be seeing now) come pattern changes. I used to swear (and trade) by the 3pm NZT smackdown in 2010. Then when things took off in Feb/Mar 2011, it disappeared, only to return in May as the 5pm smackdown. Then in June, the 12pm smackdown turned up and in September along came the 11pm and 3am smackdowns...
All of these have more or less scarpered since the beginning of this month. I'm sure regularity will always be present to an extent and new down/up periods will form, I just worry that they may not be that which can be observed in the rear-view mirror.
Having said all this, your well-researched strategy is as good or better than any other and I wish all who try it out the best of luck. I for one have incorporated aspects of your findings into my khaki thinking.
Thanks.
Looks like natty just caught a bid @ 2.28. Hallelujah!
[please excuse me if it seems like I'm spamming sometimes, but I clearly spend a lot of time on the board with tumbleweed]
@sixdollar,
Like I said in my first post about it, I was really try to just verify and study something from a ZeroHedge article. Also, I've seen a number of posts on youtube about taking advantage of this.
So this is not my original idea.
The trade I've been studying is:
1) Short Comex gold 5am - 10am EST.
2) Long Comex gold 2:30pm - 5am EST.
Hi Titus, I have been studying the same thing and I have recently created a tradingbot on the MetaTrader platform for it. I use a slightly different setup:
* I only trade the long position, since I do not want to be trading against the trend. My backtesting also shows more risk from trading the short position.
* I use the same starting hour for the long position.
* Moving the starting hour of the long position up to 10am EST (15 GMT) would let you profit more in upward periods (e.g. aug/sept-2011), but also increases your losses in downward periods (>sept-2011).
* My long position closes just an hour earlier: 4am EST (10am GMT)
I can confirm your findings that this trade was insanely profitable in Aug/Sept-2011, especially if you set an agressive adaptive style of moneymanagement (lotsize).
Looking forward to your findings, I'll also post mine.
Yes, absolutely. Merely raising my concern with the concept in general.
----------------------
Buying a little more PM @ 1648/30.38 - trend until proven wrong which could be very soon :)
Looking for Euro to dip further.
Won't re-instate short T-Bond until at least after FOMC.
Go gas!... 2.309 - woohoo!
OK. That's fine.
As far as risk, there is no way to project anything certain. As they say, "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".
But it sure looks worth the risk.
3) The risk/reward seems very high. The worst case losses are significantly less than being strictly long, for example.
sorry, probably missing something, but doesn't that mean that risk/reward is low?
Hi Titus, I have been studying the same thing and I have recently created a tradingbot on the MetaTrader platform for it. I use a slightly different setup:
Hi there. How exactly do you create a "tradingbot" on MT4?
Thanks in advance.
Right. Sorry.
The risk/reward seems very low. Very high reward with less risk than being simply long or short.
I hate when my posts say the opposite of what I mean.
Bought a little euro at 1.29. Thought she would go to 1.2850 at least (and probably will now I've doven in), but that dip was so attractive.
I have nothing invested in the conclusion as such, but you and I Pailin have gone in opposite directions at almost the same time/price.
One day of course does not a proof make by any measure. Automatism and pattern recognition it seems are really one in the same on differing time scales. This human sees a short term bottom, a year's worth of study sees a good time to sell.
Both could well be right simultaneously, but not today right now.
I'm to bed now and away tomorrow. See youse Sunday.
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| Username | Hat Tips Earned | |
|---|---|---|
 | The Watchman | 2199 |
 | Mr. Fix | 2127 |
 | ancientmoney | 2056 |
 | Pining 4 the Fjords | 1824 |
 | JakeBlues | 1649 |
 | Gold Dog | 1598 |
 | AlexCojones | 1502 |
 | Bollocks | 1400 |
 | Texas Sandman | 1294 |
 | Xty | 1290 |
Missed 5 am sells. Just sold now instead, actually got slightly better prices (by pennies):
Gold 1646.71
Silver 30.417
Both red. Let's see if next fix and Chicago/NY kill it further today. Still playing long side only, so flat right now in forex.
__________________
I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell