SW: Euro has had a great 3 days, so I'm looking for a pullback; short at 1.2850. May be a crowded trade; just like the look of the chart.
GLTA
Pailin's Trading Corner
January 18, 2012 - 4:28pm
#15362
On the other side
January 18, 2012 - 4:31pm
#15363
Tired of FAZ
I'm getting ready to throw in the towel on my FAZ, and take the losses on it from when I bought at $35, and then wait for weakness in AUMN and PVG, or maybe even Pan Orient Energy (POE) and Prophecy Coal.
FAZ is bad.
January 18, 2012 - 4:34pm
#15364
@Atlee,
What I'm really
@Atlee,
What I'm really trying to figure is what the real-time effects might be on price, signals, trend development, etc. I just feel like it's a POV worth investigating.
January 18, 2012 - 4:35pm
#15365
Well, I have to say I'm
Well, I have to say I'm stumped and really can't call for a direction from here. We may go a bit up from here, but usually with OE day on a Monday or Tuesday, metals shares decline Thurs and/or Friday. That's been the pattern in the past.
January 18, 2012 - 4:40pm
#15366
Saw margin call last night.
Saw margin call last night. Great cast, great acting, average script. I was expecting perhaps to learn more. I didn't.
January 18, 2012 - 4:45pm
#15367
Adding
Adding another tranche of GLD short. The escalator up from the lows may soon meet the elevator down. I need to see more excitement in the price action before I believe in this rally. We should be higher than this right now if this move was based on human trading. The killer Borg (love that analogy SW) love to dump when least expected in this environment.
Besides that, Embry just called for $4500 gold which is usually an excellent short term indicator.
January 18, 2012 - 4:47pm
#15368
Granny
Metals getting set to blast off quite possibly but not for another week I think, who knows?
Would love some dips to buy into. The trend of selling of gold and silver down into their OE next week is ominous but may not play this time. I think it probably will and then we may have the correction that fuels this thing big UP in late January and early February.
Dow heading higher as 13,000 beckons. When it gets there is another matter.
Cappuccino's all around for SSK the gunner. No schettino's for that guy. He would have remained on the ship down in the hull trading off a Droid while the Cruiser was sliding into the deep.
January 18, 2012 - 4:47pm
#15369
trend
I do not see a reason why the markets would begin to come back to reality and reverse the current trends.
I expect what we are seeing today will probably continue overnight and into tomorrow. Markets ignore fundamentals and trend on. Until that changes, no percentage in fading them.
Silver and gold are in the banker resistance zone. Interesting to see if they continue to hold them back or let them run a little here
January 18, 2012 - 4:48pm
#15370
Margin Call
Margin Call was written by a guy in his late 30s from Bernardsville, NJ, whose father worked on Wall St., I think for Lehman, and saw everything that was happening. So the son, a filmmaker, worked with his father on the script, and it became the movie.
January 18, 2012 - 4:59pm
#15371
Fossil free portfolio
Slung out the last of my big caps.
Did a nice GPD top-up at 66c.
It's had good run already, and
could go either way from here,
but at least it represents a fair
chance. If I hadn't already got
some, would suggest small pos
only, then double up if a dip
to 60-62 comes along. I feel
strongly this ought to see a buck
B4 2013, but expect plenty of
misery getting there.
January 18, 2012 - 4:59pm
#15372
Cheers SW!
Atlee, what do you
Cheers SW!
Atlee, what do you make of the miners at present?
January 18, 2012 - 5:04pm
#15373
Harfwit
Have a look at the boner in UGD. I bought it and forgot about it a year ago. It has done 100% in a few days. Just raw luck. Maybe this is the start of something in the junior pile of dung. Maybe they will begin the buy out stage of the cycle soon?
January 18, 2012 - 5:38pm
#15374
Trend
Trend is up, no doubt. The trend change in the down direction is usually so violent you cannot nail it spot in. I have my best trades averaging in on the dark side and waiting for payday. This is my style and involves being in pain a large percentage of the time.
I am a long term bull. I will never sell my CEF or PHYS. But the determination of the metal adversaries is beyond imagination and has really surprised me. Their desperation is palpable at this point, and they are still in business with an unlimited amount of resources to do their work.
I hate what these markets have become. I am about ready to leave them behind. Silver and gold are going up - period, and the best strategy may be to sit tight and be right.
January 18, 2012 - 5:40pm
#15375
ssk
my opinion on miners
Great to buy and hold long term. Can't trade them. Too many head winds. Buy the crushing down days and just hold. I only have 2 as there are too many fundos to follow with lots of miners. NGD and EXK. EXK can be a trader but I have enough battles with silver, R2K, WTI, etc.
So what I think right now is neutral. They are unloved and do not participate with the up market days enough for me. I just have to remind myself to add to long term hold positions when they are getting killed. I currently own NGD and EXK around 9.50 each. Would add if they fall below that.
January 18, 2012 - 5:43pm
#15376
Not Dung
As I mentioned at Eric's, when you
buy eg PKL at 40 cents, it has 1.2m
oz of gold in the bag, and mkt cap
of $27m. That means the market
values PKL in the ground (gold)
ounces at 27/1.2 = $22.5 per oz.
Thats not very expensive IMO, and
you get a complete disused mine
with 3 shafts plus plant and infra-
structure thrown in for free.
Where it gets interesting, is if
gold runs to $3000, and meantime
PKL finds it has 3m oz. Then it turns
out your in-the-ground- ounces cost
you.....9 bucks each. It could be fun.
Will look at UGD and post a DD over
at Eric's, looks a bit like PKL. I have
today been told the 3 day rule. You
don't consider buying a spiked stock
until 3 days (min) afterwards.
January 18, 2012 - 5:48pm
#15377
Empiricus
You are so right my friend. It is a bitch! Observation is the violent trend change (down) has been a buying opportunity in just about most things. Sometimes the wait and associated pain is longer than tolerable but never the less it has been opportunity.
The 2 hardest things to do ;
buy down sell up
and
distinguishing a trend change from opportunity quickly.
Someone said it on ZH "the dip buyers are winning"
January 18, 2012 - 5:57pm
#15378
for what it's worth - paid subscription analysis
As you are likely aware, the market has rallied strongly
over the last week. There are two primary reasons for this.
They are:
1) Lack of volume allows easier manipulation
2) Traders hoping for additional juice/ liquidity from the Fed/ Central Banks
Thus far in 2012, the market volume has been truly absymal.
Because of this, it's easier for financial institutions to move
the market higher... which is precisely what is happening.
The second reason for this market move is the misguided
hope of traders that the Fed or some other Central Bank
will be cranking up the printing press in the near future.
I think the odds of this are relatively low.
Firstly, the Federal Reserve has no excuse to announce
QE 3. Interest rates are at or near all time lows, so the
excuse of lowering rates is no longer valid.
Secondly, the economic data coming out of the US has
been massaged to the point of not looking that bad. As
a result of this, the Fed cannot possibly claim QE 3 is
needed to strengthen the economy.
Finally, the political environment in the US has become
increasingly hostile to the idea of more QE. At this point
it is clear that Bernanke and the Fed will be critical issues
for the 2012 Presidential election.
The Fed is aware of this which is why it's been in damage
control mode over the last few months. So the bar for more
QE has been set much much higher than it was at any point
in the last three years.
Regarding other Central Banks unveiling more stimulus,
Germany has told the European Central Bank in no uncertain
terms that if the ECB monetizes debt Germany will leave
the Euro.
On the other side of the world, China's economy is slowing
but the Chinese Central Bank has explicitly stated that it will
not permit aggressive easing to cushion to drop.
The reason for this is that inflation is already starting to get
out of control in China. Big inflation means big civil unrest
there. And with its manufacturing base already crushed
from the Crisis in 2008, the Chinese Government cannot
risk allowing this situation to get out of control.
So in plain terms, the likelihood of one or more Central Banks
pumping the system full of liquidity is slim, unless we
get a major event (like a major bank collapse or market crash).
With that in mind, I believe we will see a reversal and correction.
January 18, 2012 - 6:19pm
#15379
Possibly the first time that
I dont agree with Atlee. Trading gold
and silver for me in these markets is
totallyt impossible, but junior stocks
that are outside of their results or news
windows get stuck in a range that can
be flipped over and over, again and again.
Take Soltoro, I think I've flipped it at least
4 times this year, buying at 87, then
selling at 92. Lots more stuck in ranges.
Then the range moves up or down, and
you adjust. My nature is to invest, which
worked great in 2010, but lethal in 2011.
Don't know how 2012 will turn out, so
mixing some buy and holds with some
deliberate buy to flip.(all small stocks I like).
So far so good. Very hard work though.
January 18, 2012 - 6:35pm
#15380
European Banks
Evenin' all,
This may be of interest
European regulators are convinced that two of the continent’s banks will fail to produce credible plans to plug capital deficits by Friday’s deadline, exposing both to the risk of full or partial nationalisation.
Officials said that it looked “almost inevitable” that a fresh injection of state funds would be needed at Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Germany’s Commerzbank. “These are the big cases,” said one.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7e956578-4202-11e1-9506-00144feab49a.html#axzz1jqsVMIa9
January 18, 2012 - 7:03pm
#15381
This to me is the disconnect
This to me is the disconnect between what is the generally held view and the writers justification for why it's going higher. It would suggest to me, once again, as it always has, that the spot price is driven up and is driven down, driven up, driven down by the same people. The key differentiation being that it dispels this myth which has been propagated that it's the "good guys" pushing the prices up, and the "bad guys" keeping it in check and driving it down. This light volume would be the perfect time to drive it down and down and really crush this market were that the case. That is a side note as we could spend forever on this subject but anyways as far as price is concerned, after getting my last prediction spectacularly wrong lol, my next one is that the key line in the sand is the $31 level, if it gets to and holds that line, I am going long again. Of course that is the moment where it turns around. I was right to sell at $40, an ass not to buy in at $26 and an ass to see that this week was going to be a down week, surely I can't be wrong 3 times in a row.
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