Pailin's Trading Corner

Ahhh...I love the smell of rancid testosterone in the morning.
Now where's my cheese bagel...

So i'm going the simple route today and just looking at the GSR.

It's caught in a sideways tango from 54-57. Given that its now 54. 70s (at time of writing) the odds of a terrible thursday are higher.

Classic!

Now, about that GSR:  I've been using 55, and that's pretty much where we are.  Unless GC makes a move, it's hard to go hard long on SI, although I don't sense much downside, either.

Could have exited my zsl at even money this morning. didn't. down .25ish right now. thought about flipping then buying back in lower, but I tried that a week ago and missed half of a pretty good run in ZSL. At the open I decided that holding would be my move for today, awaiting end of week action, pending a hit of 14.39 which is my sell order on this position.

Terrible Thursday approaches.

However this decoupling is tremendously confusing and could be showing a very very bullish sign. Silver holding at this level, even on little volume, says much when the USD is acting the way it is right now. The potential for a quick run to 33 exists. Remember the levels of the last range were 30.50 to high 33's. Climbing back into the bottom of that range would be very bullish. My first thought is it would be a great op for ZSL...which scares me.

I am strongly reviewing my bear stance on silver.

Everything and I mean everything tells me silver is set to fall here. But if the decoupling is for real, the entire thesis fails. A search to invalidate the thesis comes down to a simple question....is the current decoupling going to outlast prior short term decoupling periods? The longest downtrend in Euro that decoupled from silver lasted 8-10 days according to the daily silver chart going back to May. If silver can fight the Euro and either hold or rise for another week or so, I think that the chances of real decoupling are pretty good...this might set the scene for a bull period.

WE ARE AT DAY 7 RIGHT NOW. TERRIBLE THURSDAY WILL BE HUGE. If you are long watch your position closely tomorrow.

I am ZSL based on bear stance. Decoupling ='s pain if it holds. I don't think it will. IMO Euro will pull silver down soon. If wrong I'll take my lumps and liquidate the position.

Last night on the main blog I posted that today there would be a pullback following turnaround Tuesday, but that it would be mild by comparison to other weeks.  It appears that's what happened, but more to the point, I have been bullish all week.  I think it will continue to end of week, but that's all the rope I'm going to give it for now.  I still see a major downturn on the horizon.  I have many reasons.  They get congealed into a fairly strong position and its tough to pry loose from.  Just my 2 cents (and that's exactly what it might be worth).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/oil-rises-on-concern-supply-may...

Terrible Thursday may yet be a surprise.

The consensus seems to be that the ECB will either do little, or decrease interest rates.  If true then the market will either be boring again tomorrow or go up....

Very eerie how the metals have barely moved all evening.  And no gold has not surpassed 1645 as Turd claims it must do for upward movement over the next day or 2.  Well, we'll wait for the fireworks if any tomorrow.  Can someone pass the popcorn?

I apologize to you Newman. I did not aim anything at you and if you feel that way I regret that. My post was about Elliot wave theory not you.

But I must admit that I have little respect for people who keep reminding me that they were once right or that they make their living trading. Maybe that is what got you. If you are any good it will become evident over time without the self promotion.

I am not a big dog but if you do converse with me you will need to not be thin skinned. Or just ignore me. I do not care either way.

I do not solicit or care about hat tips so do not be fooled by that. I am just a regular guy that gets lucky sometimes.

I have no position other than a very small amount of TZA, and a long term position of NGD and EXK that I have been building under $10.

So my post was Elliot wave and the plethora of counts and interpretations that render it useless. That people cite it only when it supports their analysis and the idea that you can only use the part that suits your analysis and somehow still call it elliot wave theory. I only want some one to say something like:

it indicates a short at 1292 spx and a second at 1312 if it gets there. Objective is 1240. If it goes through 1312 it was wrong and probably headed to 1360.

spirit, atlee. We are the big tent people. All are welcome, even if annoying or annoyed. Except for JoeKa, we're either in one camp or the other. JoeKa is so special, his real name is prolly Ed. JoeKa, great to see you accessorizing your avatar. Maybe you can reprise your cabbage head for St Paddy's Day?

I shorted Gold at the close. Like vamoose, I can't stop trading no matter how stupid. I only hope I can lose six mil someday. LOL. Of course, I would hate to say how much FAZ I am holding overnight. Investing is over. At least we're saving the airfare to Vegas, or in the case of JoeKa, to some exotic SE Asian destination. Oh, also have UNG hangin'. We're only one cold snap from profits there and it's already sleeting.

I am happy as a clam, but I miss Kitty. Come out Kitty and say hey. Keep Clam.