Pailin's Trading Corner

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January 10, 2012 - 11:10pm
#14962
JoeKa
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Patterns and such

Ok so here's a listing of some patterns i've observed on the Silver chart after the overnight action.

Inverse H&S: clearly and nearly perfectly defined. I've re-illustrated it here (H4 Silver) with the earlier identified bullish descending wedge for your targets.

@HoldemPlayer: regarding Japanese candlesticks, I've identified some generic patterns for your reference on the monthly Silver chart. I've also cross-referenced notations with MACD and Stochastic to check trend. What you don't see in the chart is that price will return to 20 on the Stochastic every time it tests overbought. This is my observation since 2008. While the monthly shows that there is a fair way to fall yet, the Weekly moderates it somewhat showing that the absolute bottom is very near.

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January 10, 2012 - 11:18pm
#14963
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Going over charts tonight,

Going over charts tonight, I'm struck at how impossible it has been to trade intraday. Daily highs print the first forty minutes of trading. Been like that for a while. The only way to make money, at present, in the miners is to hold over night.  Which experience has taught me is the dumbest way to lose your money.

Open big and fade. That's the pattern. And it's amplified with the beta stocks. Selling by 10:10 is the way to make money near term. If the  markets open up, that is.

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January 10, 2012 - 11:28pm
#14964
plunder
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CME trading looked so dead

CME trading looked so dead this afternoon on netdania that I kept wondering if I had lost my internet feed. More than usual it seems like it wouldn't take much money to push that market around. That said, here's the CME options chart for the FEB12 silver option expiring 1/26:

$10-20 million is nothing compared to the gold market which is in the billions. I'm going to start running the CME gold options and putting them up here also. Here's the FEB12 1/26 expiration for gold:

Will probably re-run in another week and post it if there's a noticeable change.

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January 10, 2012 - 11:54pm
#14965
sixdollarsilver
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Almost 500 pages at the corner...

Nice one Pailin. Probably one of the best books on trading one is likely to see - certainly the best I've seen.

Holy shit vamoose that's some burn.  Always good to hear other's stories.  For what it's worth, I've gone bust-ish twice... I started in 2004, blew it in 2006 and then again in 2008.  I was sorely tempted to repeat the same mistakes in April and September 2011, but fortunately have a little soul to look after now who forces me to not be so dumb.  I also channelled paper profits into a healthy stack during the big runs up 2010/11 and the security makes me more relaxed.  Although still prone to overtrading, I adjust position size FAST when things go against me, so it all works out.

I see a little more turbulence till FOMC end of month, some adjusting around the announcement, then game on.  JoeKa's H&S + RCH looks about right to me.  QE3 is named and I'll bet the farm that TPTB/EE/cartel/bullion banks et al. are long PMs.

Chin up Spinny and good luck to all.

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January 11, 2012 - 1:06am Response to: Almost 500 pages at the corner...
#14966
D E
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Of note?

China imported 102.8 metric tons of gold from Hong Kong in Nov.2011

More when i get it.

Spinny, hang in there bud, and don't neglect the important stuff: your family, your health -- physical, mental and spiritual. That stuff doesn't come back, and the clock is always on the field.

GLTA

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January 11, 2012 - 1:10am Response to: Of note?
#14967
D E
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China Moon

China’s Gold Imports from Hong Kong Jump to a Record in November
2012-01-11 05:00:01.907 GMT

By Glenys Sim
    Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s gold imports from Hong Kong
surged to a record in November as consumers bought the metal
ahead of the Lunar New Year this month and investors sought to
hedge against financial markets turmoil.
    Mainland China bought 102,779 kilograms (102.8 metric tons)
from Hong Kong in November, up from 86,299 kilograms in October,
according to the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong
Kong government. China doesn’t publish gold trade data.

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January 11, 2012 - 1:17am
#14968
sixdollarsilver
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Freshest from one of my antipodean brokers

​Just posted on the main board as there seems to be a revival of marketness over there, but here it is again for the corner.

Some of it is just downright silly, but it's always interesting to see what's going round institutional circles.  Where he sees improving consumer sentiment minus jobs, I see the early stages of a full-on inflationary environment minus jobs.  His analysis does suggest though that Bear-shank-me [thanks kitty!] and co. may just keep twisting for now.  Time will tell.

​With a better than expected santa rally in its wake and the US economy showing signs of an anticipated recovery and a solid earnings season underway, the antipodean commodity driven currencies (AUD and NZD) are full steam ahead into the new year as risk is back on the table.

Some analysts are even redirecting their sentiment and encouraging a 'forget Europe, buy US stocks' mentality. And I'm not surprised either, the US economy has leapt out of the starting blocks for 2012 with the best consumer credit figures the US has seen in at least a decade. 


November credit figures increased to USD $20.4 billion, which is almost twice as much as the highest figure forecast, of 31 economists surveyed. Could this perhaps mean that American consumers are ready to take on debt again? Or that the banks are ready to lend again? This bodes well for the US monetary system. Timothy Geithner and the FED must be Impressed with themselves.


It is a basic equation for the starting blocks of an economic revival: Increased Credit + Borrowing = Lower Unemployment (which coincidentally in December fell to 8.5% from 8.7%).

However there is a slight snag here and a touch of pessimism. Perhaps the other end of the sword implies that the job market has yet to improve enough to provide incomes required to sustain these consumer purchases which account for around 70% of the economy. Only time will tell, but at this stage the markets are liking the current field of play.

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January 11, 2012 - 1:26am Response to: Freshest from one of my antipodean brokers
#14969
Abraham Bernanke
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Out of market hours and...10 million views in 6 days youtube

We were blogging guitar skills a while back.  Here is a new tune out on the radio (you may have heard it) the video posted 6 days ago is going to hit 10 million views very shortly.  Catchy tune and 5 people all playing on the same guitar and it sounds great.  (the dude in the hat is normally the pianist, poor guy gets a bit left out here). The song builds and just gets better and better.. careful you may have the tune in your mind all day!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=d9NF2edxy-M

Beware the markets ahead, it does not look like a clear road to me!

__________________

When "IT" comes make sure you get your SWAGER on.
Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1971512407001/give-your-portfolio-some-sw...

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January 11, 2012 - 1:37am
#14970
sixdollarsilver
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confluence of phenomena

- JoeKa approximate inflection point Jan.22

- Chinese New Year Jan.23

- FOMC Jan.24/25

- ... ;)

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January 11, 2012 - 1:37am
#14971
sixdollarsilver
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confluence of phenomena

[edit - oops, double post sorry]

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January 11, 2012 - 2:21am Response to: confluence of phenomena
#14972
D E
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Year of the JoeKa!

4710!

Enter the Dragon!

So, silver looks ok, but gold even better. Euro & oil taking it on the chin. Naturally, I'm long wti. Colonel Klink coming out w numbers at 3 am nttime, then wti figures in ny session

GLTA

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January 11, 2012 - 2:30am Response to: Year of the JoeKa!
#14973
D E
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Hmmmm

Bloomberg reporting Iranian nuclear scientist killed in blast in Tehran. Worth .10 in wti. Will see if it has a half-life longer than 10 minutes.

Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, dir at Natanz facility

Now .20 cents up

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January 11, 2012 - 2:40am Response to: confluence of phenomena
#14974
JoeKa
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sixdollarsilver wrote: -

sixdollarsilver wrote:

- JoeKa approximate inflection point Jan.22

- Chinese New Year Jan.23

- FOMC Jan.24/25

- ... ;)


Ha! Nice one !
I will be in Bangkok over the Chinese new year holidays with the missus. Hope to catch up on some spicy food and spicy baby making.

Oops too much info! ;)

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January 11, 2012 - 2:48am Response to: Year of the JoeKa!
#14975
JoeKa
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D E wrote:4710! Enter the

D E wrote:
4710!

Enter the Dragon!

So, silver looks ok, but gold even better. Euro & oil taking it on the chin. Naturally, I'm long wti. Colonel Klink coming out w numbers at 3 am nttime, then wti figures in ny session

GLTA

I like the ring of that! :)
Seriously I'd like this to be the year where love of PMs, if it was lost, be found..
Where Fortunes lost, recovered.
Where Faith was missing, discovered.

Best wishes to all from this sunny isle!

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January 11, 2012 - 3:15am Response to: D E wrote:4710! Enter the
#14976
D E
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a beautiful sentiment, JoeKa,

but, just in case, don't cancel your holiday in Bangkok...a New Year well begun is a good deed done...or something like that.

More news coming on Iranian hit; meanwhile taking some barrels off the tanker as march wti added .40 on spike.

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January 11, 2012 - 3:25am Response to: D E wrote:4710! Enter the
#14977
D E
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Iranian hit

Report: Bomb Kills Iran University Professor
2012-01-11 07:08:32.285 GMT

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI
    Tehran, Iran (AP) -- An assailant on a motorcycle attached
magnetic bombs on Wednesday to the car of an Iranian university
professor specializing in petroleum, killing him and wounding
two others, an Iranian semiofficial news agency reported. The
attack strongly resembles earlier attacks on scientists
allegedly connected to Tehran's controversial nuclear program.
    The killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was similar to
previous apparent assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists
that Tehran has blamed on Israel and the United States. Both
countries have denied the accusations.
    Roshan, 32, was inside the Iranian-assembled Peugeot 405
car together with two others when the bomb expoded near Gol
Nabi Street in north Tehran, Fars reported. It was not
immediately clear if Ahmadi was involved in Iran's nuclear
program.
    Fars described the explosion as a "terrorist attack"
targeting Roshan, a graduate of the prestigious Sharif
University of Technology in Tehran.
    A similar bomb explosion on January 12, 2010, killed Tehran
University professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi, a senior physics
professor. He was killed when a bomb-rigged motorcycle exploded
near his car as he was about to leave for work.
    In November 2010, a pair of back-to-back bomb attacks in
different parts of the capital killed one nuclear scientist and
wounded another.
    The slain scientist, Majid Shahriari, was a member of the
nuclear engineering faculty at Shahid Beheshti University in
Tehran and cooperated with the Atomic Energy Organization of
Iran. The wounded scientist, Fereidoun Abbasi, was almost
immediately appointed head of Iran's atomic agency.
    The United States and other countries say Iran is trying to
develop nuclear weapons technology. Iran denies the
allegations, saying that its program is intended for peaceful
purposes.

-0- Jan/11/2012 07:08 GMT

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January 11, 2012 - 7:51am
#14978
survivalwstyle
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daily pivots?

just curious on the R's and the S's....lOOks to me like Ag 29.80-60 nEEds to hold.

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enjoy everyday

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January 11, 2012 - 8:59am Response to: daily pivots?
#14979
JoeKa
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@SWS

survivalwstyle wrote:

just curious on the R's and the S's....lOOks to me like Ag 29.80-60 nEEds to hold.


Be empowered
http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/silver-technical

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January 11, 2012 - 9:00am
#14980
redwood
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No word yet on Merkel

No word yet on Merkel Laguarde meeting.   Metals will stay up until Euro situation is clearer, but that may not last till end of week.  Also expecting a change in direction next week to the downside.

Abe, nice guitar video. 

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January 11, 2012 - 9:10am
#14981
survivalwstyle
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joeKa

thanks bro.yes bOOkmarked.

for a novice "trader" like myself. lOOks like this site is a gOOd one to know. i can pivot myself siLLy there ;o)

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enjoy everyday

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