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January 5, 2012 - 9:29pm Response to: [quote]descending wegde
#14682
JoeKa
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dirk] </p><p>[quote

dirk] <p>[quote wrote:
descending wegde breakout: buy at 28.66[/qoute]

Hat tip for JoeKa. Great call man.


You're welcome but it missed by a few cents.
And that was only for the over-traders anyway.
If you can actually trade the minute charts without getting whipsawed then you're much smarter than me.

I'd second what redwood said about being careful.
My charts look they have arrived at decision time.
It's either grind up or tank hard. While I'm leaning on 'tank hard' I have to listen to what price is saying.

Btw that Gartman guy is funny.

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January 5, 2012 - 9:58pm Response to: dirk]

[quote

#14683
sixdollarsilver
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fun with quotes :)

Quote:
 And that was only for the over-traders anyway. If you can actually trade the minute charts without getting whipsawed then you're much smarter than me.

Cheers for that level. I went a bit earlier, but good to have ramification.  Definitely not smarter - getting whipsawed from time to time is part of the game at this speed. It just needs to happen less than it does happen so to speak.

Quote:
I'd second what redwood said about being careful. My charts look they have arrived at decision time. It's either grind up or tank hard. While I'm leaning on 'tank hard' I have to listen to what price is saying.

Cautious optimism or buoyant pessimism?

Quote:
Btw that Gartman guy is funny.

Funny as in ha ha and ​funny as in strange... quite an achievement!

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January 5, 2012 - 10:14pm
#14684
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Bought another tranche of

Bought another tranche of RGLD and SLW today. I figure I'm already way drawn down as it is, so why not.

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January 5, 2012 - 10:23pm Response to: fun with quotes :)
#14685
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sixdollarsilver wrote:Quote:

sixdollarsilver wrote:

Quote:
I'd second what redwood said about being careful. My charts look they have arrived at decision time. It's either grind up or tank hard. While I'm leaning on 'tank hard' I have to listen to what price is saying.

Cautious optimism or buoyant pessimism?

Cautiously pessimistic about my optimism buoyancy

sixdollarsilver wrote:

Quote:
Btw that Gartman guy is funny.

Funny as in ha ha and ​funny as in strange... quite an achievement!

Funny as in "ha ha. he's strange!"

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January 5, 2012 - 10:41pm
#14686
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different this time?

I'm not buying the "euro has decoupled" theory yet. Maybe it really has and this is confirmation that LTRO reduced the relevance of EUR/USD on all risk assets, maybe not. See SIM's chart above, and this one:

I'm not trusting it one damn bit, nope. Have my bets in (short everything) as of this afternoon, guess we will find out soon enough...

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January 5, 2012 - 10:55pm
#14687
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Oh I meant short everything

Oh I meant short everything except TLT --> am long there. with kitty on hiatus, thought I should also remind everyone of the US trash auction schedule:

3-year - Tuesday 1/10

10-year - Wednesday 1/11

30-year - Thursday 1/12

2, 5 and 7s are the week right after. Then the FOMC meeting.

TLT currently trading near the bottom of its recent range, it had a relatively weak sell off compared to this week's rally in equities. Have treasuries decoupled from risk, too?

Not likely. More likely this is becoming a crowded and anticipated trade (long TLT prior to auctions)

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January 5, 2012 - 11:04pm
#14688
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Great chart plunder

Thanks for that.  Totally respect your decision to short as I agree the pattern holds for now.  

But holeee, I hope you're prepared to change your mind fast (or are playing small) - particularly on the euro (no! you row!) as it has proven very sharp in its spikes of late.

Cup and handle on the 15m @ 1625 Au, anyone?

Ha ha!  I think there is no other side to Gartman's face, it's just one of those mirror image things that flips like a magnet.

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January 5, 2012 - 11:46pm Response to: I'll try, if I have time on
#14689
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GSR

JoeKa wrote:
I'll try, if I have time on the weekend to do a chart on the GSR - to see if the 60:1 will indeed come thru putting Au at 1500 and Ag at 25

So as I was writing a reply to a PM, I did some very initial analysis on the GSR based on the 10-year GSR chart...and I wrote this. Please note these are really draft mode thoughts.

------------------------------

For much of last year, Silver led Gold, thus the GSR dropped to 33 thereabouts

We now have the reverse, Gold leading Silver, the GSR bogging the 55 range. Note: the 30 year GSR range is around 58-60 and it has bummed around 60-70 for periods of a time.

Digression-- as I was writing this I see a rough trend in the GSR - a relative two year period of holding the 60-70 range, then bombing down, then recovering. Consider this:

2004-2006 -> 60-70 -- average: 65

2006-2008 -> 45-55 -- average: 50

2008-2010 -> 50-80! -- average: 65

2010-2012 -> 33-X -- average: 50? therefore X must be = 64!

Hence you would buy silver at GSR 64 !?

To be clear, I don't use the GSR for paper trading (though it could be used for swapping gold for silver vice versa, determining which is more valued or undervalued, etc)

-----------------------------------

*edit: coincidentally enough, I just saw a thread on Kitco's Silver discussion group since the new year which talks about this! LOL

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=98883

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January 6, 2012 - 12:02am
#14690
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Say it ain't so Jimbo

oh jim, by the way, we are still on for tea and crumpets on Saturday right?? love, joe

http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold-could-go-to-1200-1300.html

January 6, 2012
Gold Could Go To 1200-1300
 
In my view, gold could go to 1200 - 1300 (dollars an ounce)... Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual in any financial asset so gold is overdue for a correction. - in Reuters
 
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January 6, 2012 - 12:46am
#14691
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Ira's back from Florida

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January 6, 2012 - 1:06am
#14692
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BrotherJohnF - correlation discussion

BrotherJohnF spent time talking about correlation today in his video

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January 6, 2012 - 2:14am
#14693
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Today's thread

@JoeKa

Paid attention all day and appreciate your efforts, and those of the others.

A real education on a daily basis. Big help understanding some of the psychology and nuance of the markets.

Back to lurking, and scouring the interwebs.

Peace

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January 6, 2012 - 4:51am
#14694
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BrotherJohn ..

...reading our little forum? Hey Bro :)  lovin' ya work.. 

So the metals are either going to catch up suddenly in a little while, or they're not, so we need a strategy. this can take a good few days, I wouldnt get too confident the correlation is broken just yet.

Im staying short silver but long a comparative amount of oil from yesterday afternoon and last night's dip. My reasoning is that there has to be fair chance of the EUR silver correlation reasserting, and a fair chance of a war oil spike, and some chance of both.

sudden Iran-US love and  QE-to-infinity at the same time will probably wipe my little account out, but I think the chances of both of those coming together imminently, are slim, slimmer than the gains to be had if either or both of my guess-timates work out.

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January 6, 2012 - 5:05am Response to: Say it ain't so Jimbo
#14695
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JoeKa wrote: oh jim, by the

JoeKa wrote:

oh jim, by the way, we are still on for tea and crumpets on Saturday right?? love, joe

http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold-could-go-to-1200-1300.html

January 6, 2012
Gold Could Go To 1200-1300
 
In my view, gold could go to 1200 - 1300 (dollars an ounce)... Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual in any financial asset so gold is overdue for a correction. - in Reuters

I dont know about the 11 years thing really, but if the EUR pushed on down to 1.20, I'd say its entirely possible, and Netdania sort of agrees.  of course, we *could* de-couple, but if we didn't we couldn't really say we haven't been warned, could we?

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January 6, 2012 - 5:05am Response to: Say it ain't so Jimbo
#14696
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JoeKa wrote:oh jim, by the

tut. sorry. edit turned into another post somehow

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January 6, 2012 - 5:05am Response to: Say it ain't so Jimbo
#14697
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negligent discharge

accidently double tapped it, old habits die hard..

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January 6, 2012 - 5:15am
#14698
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EURO ALERT

My proprietary indicator (multiple consecutive lambs with tracking devices) is showing an auspicious uptick.  I have zero confidence in it continuing to read green, but here's the question of the day...

What if the euro reverses and heads back in the direction of 1.35/40/45?  (farewell sweet lamb, return as mutton)

Does it mean anything for our PMS (Precious Mental Syndrome)?  Will they de-couple and find new mates?  Will the pig sidle over and take a dip at the trough?  

For the answers to these questions and more, watch The Charts.  Live and direct to a stream near you. 

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January 6, 2012 - 5:25am
#14699
sixdollarsilver
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That last chart piques my interest Red Pill

Here's a thought experiment:  

-  Picture an X.

-  The euro represents the top-left to bottom-right branch, PMs the bottom-left to top-right.

-  They are intersecting in the middle like light sabers.... ggghhiigggcccchhhsssschhhiiissss

-  As their energy fields cross they get scrambled and seem to rotate around each other.

-  They then part and carry on in their respective directions.

-  Euro (read; fiat) goes down, PMs go up.

Just a thought.

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January 6, 2012 - 5:27am
#14700
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Gold stock
1. U.S. 8965.6  tons (418.4 billion U.S. dollars)
2. Germany 3743.7 tons (164.7 billion U.S. dollars)
3. IMF 3101.0 tons (144.8 billion U.S. dollars)
4. Italy 2702.6 tons (126.1 billion U.S. dollars)
5. France 2,684.6 tons (125.3 billion U.S. dollars)
6. SPDR Gold ETF 1213.9 tons (64.5 billion U.S. dollars)
7. China 1161.9 tons (54.2 billion U.S. dollars)
8. Switzerland, 1146.5 tons (53.5 billion U.S. dollars)
9. Russia 960.1 tonnes (44.8 billion U.S. dollars)
10. Japan 843.5 tonnes (39.4 billion U.S. dollars)
11. Netherlands 675.2 tonnes (31.5 billion U.S. dollars)
12. India 614.7 tonnes (28.7 billion U.S. dollars)
13. ECB 553.4 tons (25.8 billion dollars)
14. Taiwan 465.6 tonnes (21.7 billion U.S. dollars)
15. Portugal 421.6 tonnes (19.7 billion U.S. dollars)
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January 6, 2012 - 5:29am
#14701
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Daily Pivot Points
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 1575.09 1586.42 1604.09 1615.42 1633.09 1644.42 1662.09
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 27.79 28.24 28.72 29.17 29.65 30.1 30.58

@JoeKa - GSR 64 is my target too. Swapping all gold for silver there. If we get another waterfall that breaks 26...that's when we'll see it. Been crossing my fingers for that steal :)

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