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JAL
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Short USD/JPY...

I think that's the set.devil

silverwood
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Happy New Year all!

I would have loved to have seen follow through for gold, silver and miners from yesterday. Oh well not gonna happen. I believe things are going to be hard to understand until Trump takes office and that is
none-too-soon. This current episode of sanctions against Russia for interfering with the election is complete BS. If the Russians truly did interfere with the elections and caused Trump to win, then IMO, the American People owe Russia and Mr. Putin a huge debt of gratitude! I hope they can influence the future elections of the likes of John McCain and Lindsey Graham and get the people to vote those two assholes out. Happy New Year let it be safe, healthy, happy and profitable.

tonym9
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Didn't get the downdraft I

Didn't get the downdraft I was expecting a few days ago...instead it was an endless run up that I was able to break even on while still playing DUST for the most part and NUGT some to make up for the losses. Bottom line is on the run from hi 5s in NUGT to hi 8s I broke even, and on the DUST run back up today I made a little. Net positive on the week, but missed out on a good run trying to catch a DUST knife many many times, then making up for it with swings to NUGT. The tea leaves are very very hard to read right now and even though I was looking for the relief rally that did come this week, the roadsigns said more downside action that didn' thappen. Part of it is that my personal rhythm is off and the confirmation is I'm feeling it in other things besides trading. Granted, this month and last have been tough and I'm still doing better than not since admitting defeat on the Trump election play, but there have been good moves that I have missed. I think this long weekend is what I need to reset. I'm flat and don't have a directional in mind on purpose, going into '17. By Tuesday morning I hope to have my shit together. This weekend is one of reset and relaxation. When I start grouching at the boys and my wife for no reason, when work has me short, when trading has me pist off....it's time to take a break and unplug from everything for a day or two. 

OT:  Palin you will like this update...I finished my training course for the home inspection program I was working on the past year, this week. Now to become a certified and licensed Texas home inspector I only need to go take both the national test and the Texas test. I plan to do that by the end of January. Once those tests are completed, the business launches. I spent the day today riding along with my friend who now does this as his primary income. It confirmed what I already knew...that I can do something that I really really enjoy and get paid well to do it. Soon the current B plan of inspections will become the A plan...soon. 2 inspections a day easily doubles my income, creates huge tax advantages, and cuts about half the needed time from my overall work schedule...that's a good trade which I plan to take full advantage of. Even better the future transition in 5ish years to the Hawaiian Islands will be supported by my first going there as a dental hygienist (current A plan) and building my new business's location/get established as a home inspector, to then quit being a dental hygienist permanently to have my own schedule in paradise. One step at a time.

Get some quality time clocked this weekend y'all...I know I will be. 

JAL: Keep kickin ass!

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

csquared13
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Happy New Year all. Hope

Happy New Year all. Hope everyone had a great time over the holidays.

Ideas for 2017? Here's what I'm looking at:

Healthcare and Biotech
Energy through at least Q1 (seasonal trade)

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tonym9
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CS13: My wife doesn't have

CS13: My wife doesn't have much choice in her retirement account and nothing pm related. Out of all, I just moved her into energy a few weeks ago FWIW. No way I put her in an index fund, bond, em etc. Energy looks to be the best house on a bad street atm. Not sure on healthcare/biotech but I would think healthcare would get a pop with Trump's promised actions on Obummercare. BE CAREFUL if you are playing based on Trump's action alone...I'm skeptical at best. We shall see. 

In DUST at 48.54 in premarket. USD/JPY at 118.30s, USD 103.40s, gold 1147.15, silver 15.96....watching very closely before the drive in to work and may go flat. Stop/Position/Profit management will be key this week. I think gold gets slammed here, but the sandscript is hard to read these days and I don't trust any of the market roadsigns. Best to be nimble.

GLTA 

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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So, does the USD/JPY roll

So, does the USD/JPY roll over here at 118.20-30, and does the USD take dump allowing gold to fly? Not sure yet but I'm ready to bail on the DUST already as mo looks to be on GDX's side this morning. If we get a repeat of last year the time is now and I won't be on the wrong side of that move. GLTA

EDIT: dumped the DUST, into NUGT...mo on GDX's side this morn and it looks like USD/JPY will fail at 118 again

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

csquared13
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tonym9 wrote: CS13: My wife

tonym9 wrote:

CS13: My wife doesn't have much choice in her retirement account and nothing pm related. Out of all, I just moved her into energy a few weeks ago FWIW. No way I put her in an index fund, bond, em etc. Energy looks to be the best house on a bad street atm. Not sure on healthcare/biotech but I would think healthcare would get a pop with Trump's promised actions on Obummercare. BE CAREFUL if you are playing based on Trump's action alone...I'm skeptical at best. We shall see.

To be specific, I'm talking about mine and mom's work retirement account. PM's are already taken care of by me.

I can't see any reason to not have some long US equity exposure. (unless you're waiting for a good dip like P) Mom did well in 2016 (just under +9%) mainly thanks to low-cost index mutual funds available through her retirement account + the January dip where I bought a sizeable position in her account. How many were screaming sell last January? 

Risk management was all through position sizing. She was never more than 40% long / 60% cash last year. No bond funds because I am still not quite comfortable with redemption risk, etc, and not even sure she can buy bonds outright in her retirement account. Currently reading The Bond Book by Annette Thau for homework...open to suggestions.  

For me, it isn't about Trump's promised actions on repealing Obamacare, but about market perception of Trump's expected actions across the board. I think it's quite safe to say that the market perception is Trump is pro-business. Less regulations and perhaps some changes to taxes.. IMO, this creates an environment where the US becomes even more attractive than it has been during the recent years. Perfect example was Masa's (Softbank) statements in the recent meeting with Trump. And that thing Dalio said about "animal spirits." 

Also am nibbling at some emerging market positions for her.. for diversification. I want to be long US but not overweight US. Concerns of strong dollar will remain in the back of my mind for sure, but not sure I'm convinced that a strong dollar must = disaster for EM's (or oil and PM's for that matter.) 

A healthy dose of skepticism is always a good approach, but don't let it turn into dogma. I've been there and done that, and it wasn't until I got out of that frame of mind that I was able to start making better decisions and watch the account balances move in the right direction. Of course, Seykota's quote in my signature was an eye-opener too...not just for investing and trading, but I think it definitely applies to life in general. 

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tonym9
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CS13: good response indeed.

CS13: good response indeed. Dogma checks needed all the time. Glad to hear Mom is doing well, that can be tough to manage for her.

So far this morning I've taken a DUST hit, had several good NUGT trades and one bad, and several good JNUG trades. I'm taking profit where I get it and could argue I'm overtrading but am playing the quick in/out game until I get firmer direction calls on USD/JPY.

USD/JPY is all over the place today and gold with it...what a ride. 118 resistance looking better and better...until it doesn't.

Right now I'm flat but have a JNUG bid in for 6.05 looking for the 11cst market change in direction. Been a good day so far.

On the Trump thing I am just a very jaded and skeptical voter. But I do totally agree that the herd is running on the Trumpium Economic Hopium plan...when the herd shifts due to congress throwing a fit or him changing his position it will be a show. But that direction change might not come till DOW 25k...who knows. It could just as easily go to 15k.

Active position management is critical. That's the only thing that will keep an account in the black these days.

Good luck, go get em

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Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

csquared13
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Volume is coming in on XBI.

Volume is coming in on XBI. Added to mom's biotech longs this morning. 

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tonym9
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Place your bets, FOMC minutes

Place your bets, FOMC minutes in 30 minutes. Looks like GDX wants to extend based on the past 10 minutes or so. I'm honestly not sure which way to go.

Have had a good morning playing DUST and JNUG. 6 trades, 1 bad...up a % this morn, i'll take it.

Flat right now, looking for entry. Most likely will go with JNUG if GDX can hold going into the meeting. Thing is I'm so conditioned (DOGMA CS13!) to FOMC...not sure...the USD/JPY chart has been crazy and frankly I don't trust it right now and that has been my tell.

So what are you degenerate gamblers doing? Good Luck which ever side you choose.

Sure am wishing I would have acted on my Bitcoin curiousity back at the split...broke 1100 today. Parity with gold soon?

EDIT: went with DUST on the always beat up on gold before a big news issue and the $2 drop in gold at 1230...will prolly sell it prior to meeting minutes release.

Edit's Edit: Sold the DUST for a scalp...in JNUG at 6.74 and will watch like a hawk.

-----

Sold JNUG at 6.91, LBO set at 6.80...quick scalps

USD/JPY starting to get bid, went into DUST instead at 41.76

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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I bought and sold JNUG/DUST

I bought and sold JNUG/DUST at least half dozen more times after above, had a great run. Sold my last position, JNUG, at 6.68 per for the cmmute home. just checked in on it and boom its runnin, jnug 7.05 in am trade.......time to start holding overnight approaches me thinks. now? not sure

EDIT:

7.17 JNUG !!!  at the close of aftermarket.

Gold is running like a scalded dog. 1173 as I type. USD 102.09. USD/JPY 116.41

I must admit I'm in full FOMO mode. I've been waiting for '16 FOMC actions to complete for the setup to take hold and today we saw the minutes...it may be here. But not enough to buy at the top of the day and hold overnight. Not yet. I may wake up and regret it, but account management says to wait and not do anything stupid. I watched gold/JNUG run knowing I couldn't buy to hold. ugh. not yet not yet not yet not yet not yet....

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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wow, just wow...moves in pm

wow, just wow...moves in pm are crazy and moves x3 pm will give you a ride like no other.

Last night I was debating entering 7.00 at almost the close of a/m and didn't due to trying to be prudent...it cost me, but I've been burned so many times on overnight holds I'm gunshy so for me it was the right play. My last words to my wife last night were watch gold will be 1200 in the morning. 5am, not 1200, but JNUG was 7.40 in premarket. I waited thinking it wont hold. Ended up missing most of the move to 8.50 but did get some of it. Drat, left a bunch on the table though.

Now I'm on the other side, taking a knife catching DUST position. I just can't see GDX et all continuing this run. I'm watching it close. The last hour it's been crickets. The pause before the smash? The pause before the end of day run up? My money is on DUST coming up from my entry of 34.64 per. Will bail at 34flat.

what a day. congrats to any who held overnight...brassy for sure.

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

JAL
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Closed Long Gold @$1181

Just 'cause...

...some things are more important than money/roaming charges.wink

JAL
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Closed Long EUR/USD, Short USD/JPY...

In my defense, they were up quite a lot.

tonym9
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Sold the DUST 34.60ish

Sold the DUST 34.60ish yesterday when it hit my mental stop 34.00, then watched it run back up. In DUST this morning at 35.40, sold at 36.40 after the pop 30 minutes out from the most important bullshit jobs report of all time.

In JNUG 7.98 on the open

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

JAL
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Closed Long $Silver @1680

Trying to be sensible...frown

JAL
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@Pailin

All the best!wink

tonym9
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Been in and out, missed some,

Been in and out, missed some, made some

Just entered JDUST at 18.35 premarket

6 FOMC goons speak today...can't imagine that's good for gold

1205.10 gold, 114.19 USD/JPY, 16.90 silver at 5am premarket open

GLTA 

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

tonym9
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out of jdst at 19.02 in jnug

out of jdst at 19.02 then in/out of jnug for a quick hit, flat on open. FOMC goons are in my head, didn't like the look of the chart, flat on open, ready for a quick spike either way

EDIT: in jdst 18.72

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"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda

Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

JAL
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Have a sneaking suspicion that...

Today might be the day.wink

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