Pailin's Trading Corner

Today's stink bids - XAG 33.35, XAU 1481.

I'm already long XAU 1531.8 with a target sell 1544.

Otherwise flat (for trading) XAG.

Still feeling neutral to negative on seasonal trend here.

I'll offer up info that I previously posted on the old Turd. I'm just under middle-aged, presently unemployed (aka self-employed :), live in New England, USA. I worked many years in financial services, long enough to know from the inside that the conspiracy theories are more right than wrong in a broad sense. Paper is a joke, a game of hot potato at best.

I may also be the cheapest b@stard you'll even know. My primer was The Millionaire Next Door. It's not what you earn as much as what you keep (or don't spend). When you do spend, how you spend is very important (new car vs. used, etc.) And, relevant to this site, how you hold your savings (fiat, metals, reinvest in your own business, etc.)  When I was worked for others, I saved 50% ore more of my gross income. Year after year. My net worth is greater than the cumulative of my w-2s for the last 15 yrs. This was primarily accomplished through saving vs. spending, not savvy trading. I only starting actively trading in November 2010.

One "cheap" example - I have not used any source of heat (hot showers aside) for the last three years. In New England. I layer. And love it. I do not have children, and would not do this if I did. The fiat saved (approx. $2700/winter) is pushed into physical gold and silver on a seasonal low basis (Jan/Feb) every year. I could give many other examples where I choose goods over services as a lifestyle, but don't want to alienate you folks too much :)

What just happened? My bad XAU trade is green all of a sudden :)

Tempting to close it now, I think we're going back down soon enough, but I'm going to stick to my target 1544.

I may have taken this too far...I've been living far below my means :)

Me and the missus.

When I was laid off last October, I didn't bat an eye. It's not the first time it's happened to me. Being in financial services, it's been a cycle every 6-8 yrs that I've "enjoyed". So I've been preparing accordingly for a long time. I'm debt free and rent. The salary was just funding further savings anyway, and too much of it was a donation to Uncle Sam. I won't miss giving at the office :)

My monthly cost of living is 1/10th of 1% of my net worth. I'm actually actively working at all times to reduce my COI footprint even further. Since nearly all my savings is inflation-hedged, I'm -in broad terms- good to go for the next 90 yrs w/o being productive.
Except I'm too young to sit around doing nothing. I also miss the office interaction, though not the politics. My plan was always to be able to walk away at any time the BS wasn't worth the paycheck. TPTB just beat me to the decision, that's all :)

Right now, their plan is that I'm supposed to be up to my ears in debt and all vulnerable to swapping the last bit of integrity and self-respect (not to mention freedeom) I have to vote in the next group of connected politicians and their dripping tit of handouts.

Too bad I stepped outside their plan.

So I'm here trading and building my own side business. Both are modest endeavors that tend to support paying the bills vs. upgrading my economic caste. Both are also in service of transitioning out of NE to TX. Better place to be (for me), whether things just get really bad or go Mad Max. I lack self-sufficiency in the lead and land dept.

Thanks for the appreciation. Now is a good time to mention a few basic Pailin "rules".

1. All things in moderation (don't overleverage, never go "all in" - EVER).

2. My economic circumstances and trading goals are likely very different from everybody else's. Keep this in mind if you track my trades with your own money, as opposed to watching from the sidelines and laughing when I lose :)

3. Cover your backside. Watch your risk, losing less is more important than "maybe" making a whole lotta. You never know when your supply line to easy fiat (jobs, bank loans, friends to borrow from, etc.) will dry up.  If you've traded away all your fiat to losses and don't have any physical or other net assets, you're now vulnerable to the dripping tit. You don't want that! A lot of my strategy pre-supposes a long core of physical or PSLV-type equity and double-longing it with paper in a bull trend or shorting paper to hedge that core in a bear trend. Resistance points and use of stops are an essential part of my trades.

4. If there's no obvious trend, there's no obvious trade. Good time to step away and pretend to do your job (if you have one) so you'll get a bonus year-end, or go outside and live a little (cheaply, of course!) You should already have physical, so you're never out of the trade...you're LONG.

5. Short charts are great for short term trades, never forget to watch the longer charts too. Right now, I'd rather get caught buying poorly at 33 than 37. Why? Risk vs. Reward. Risk? 30-32. Reward? 35-37. Look at the 4hr and 8hr Bollinger bands, recent resistance and those two prices...see what I mean?

I'm sure I'll think of more, but the above is a start. When I post trades, I'll try hard to provide relative context for the upside, downside, and size of trade I'm attempting. I don't enter these things to lose fiat, but sometimes I have a different goal in mind too (like shorting to hedge off-market physical long).

Devise, if wifey is working and bringing home more than the cost of those hot showers...you're net positive. Her happiness is an acceptable cost of doing business, an investment that yields returns. Another Pailin rule - keep the workers working, even if it means you have to pay them a little more :)

Now, if she's not earning just consuming... Just kidding!