HOW TO MAKE MONEY DAY TRADING SILVER

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bensgone
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HOW TO MAKE MONEY DAY TRADING SILVER

I there is anyone on this forum that is  making money in this market you are smarter than I ever will be. In fact if you have figured out how to do it based upon the analysis that Turd's gives us, then I have even more respect. I was a buy and hold for about five years starting in 2002 to 2006. Stopped buying around 10.10 silver traded in 20 oz of gold and bought stocks in 2003. Have sat on most of them since. I don't need to do what you  do, but would sure love to know how you do it. Problem is no one, not even Turd has presented a system that has a winning track record that I can observe on a daily basis, i.e. answer the following questions:

What did you buy?

When did you buy it?

Why did you buy it?

What kind of analysis did you make to arrive at your decision?

Did you employ any of Turd's analysis?

How much did you pay?

Was in an options?

Exactly what words did you use to your broker to describe the purchase when you made it?

What percentage of your dry powder did you use.?

What was the Expiration date of the option?

Did you sell before the options expiry of the contract?

Why did you choose to sell at that time?

Did you make a profit?

What percentage of your dry powder was the profit?

Did you lose on the trade?

What percentage of your dry powder?

Did your option expire out of the money?

Do you keep a running spreadsheet of your trades with profit and losses each day and percentage of dry powder.

I would need to see at least 50 to 100 consecutive trades to convince me that you in fact are a winner at this game.

Then, I would have to watch you in action on a daily basis for at least 25 to 50 trades before I would follow what you do.

All these financial writers never ever have given such an accounting, yet they want you to subscribe. I will never do it without the proof I need that they in fact can do what they say they can do. Sorry I am a die hard skeptic.

These are just a few of the questions I would have to have answered before I would even consider doing what you amazing people do. Obviously some of you are quite successful in the long run at this or you would not do it,, I guess, unless you are really just a bunch of gamblers.

Is anyone here willing to prove their skills by answering all these questions?
Frankly, when most of you chat with one another, I don't understand most of what you are talking about. I am sure there are many like me. You use a kind of cryptic language I have never been able to decipher completely. I am probably asking too much, but I will keep trying. Thanks !

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:09
nepenthean
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Too tired to answer all your

Too tired to answer all your questions, but the crux of intraday trading is experience, a bankroll, and discipline. I do not intraday trade SI, only CL. I do not think anyone will teach you for free. Besides, what challenge is that? It would feel like taking a helicopter ride to the summit instead of hiking it yourself.

In my opinion, people who successfully intraday trade are self-taught. If you are unable to spend MANY hours sitting at a desk, alone, thinking intensely with acute attention, you will fail at this craft. It will require ALL your intellectual and emotional energy. You will have to want to succeed at it like a drowning man wants a breath of fresh air, like a med student wants to see MD after his/her name, like a navy seal candidate wants to be an official seal.

Are you ready for that intensity? Most are not.

If you think you are, here is what you do:

1) Fund an account with a few thousand dollars and get a reliable trading platform.

2) Watch SI--if that is what you wish to trade--  during pit hours like a cat watches a mousehole.

3) Take notes in an ongoing text document.

4) On the weekend, spend several hours reviewing data

5) Begin to make inferences.

6) Simulate trading those inferences.

7) Achieve consistency and establish your own trading plan of statistically significant methods and strategies.

8) Begin to trade with real money.

9) Enjoy your new lifestyle and congrats on the awesome feeling of accomplishment from hard work.

Cheers!

bensgone
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Wow, excellent response

If I could give you a hundred hat tips I would. That was an excellent response and very helpful. I wish others of your caliper would do the same thing. That's the kind of explanation that helps. Thanks a lot. I think I have the essential skills you talk about. I keep my own running spread sheets on the markets I think are the most important drivers of the PM market. I look for patterns and try to calculate the probable next move of the EE. Turd's information is precisely along the same lines that I think. I see these patterns, and have a fairly good idea from day to day where the market is going. I just don't have any idea exactly how to play the information I have. But your response was very helpful.

pailin
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Pailin's System

benroberts13 wrote:

If there is anyone on this forum that is  making money in this market you are smarter than I ever will be...Problem is no one, not even Turd has presented a system that has a winning track record that I can observe on a daily basis...

Since I'm not trying to sell you a system or newsletter, I'm not going to go through your rigorous exercise. I don't work for free :) But I have proved my system to myself. If you want to paper trade it, please do and you'll see that it works very well. Turd's system is not a day trade, it's a swing trade, so I think we should leave his system out of the topic.

My system is very simple and involves several Forex.com trades daily and requires strict discipline to be effective. Forex trades are spot/futures derivatives with no actual direct interest in the contract market. It's a pure electronic trading game, no deliveries and no hard equity other than your account balance in fiat plus/minus whatever your present open positions are. Leverage may or may not be employed at the user's discretion and risk tolerance. A reasonable starting acct balance would be $10k USD to give enough breathing room to take the small hits without losing your ability to continue trading. My system will generate many small gains, some small losses with overall small risks. It pays green at least 70% of the time. That's a very high percentage for day trading. If followed, it requires keeping one eye on the chart almost all the time and concentration when target signals are close. When this isn't possible, you would be flat (sleeping, office meeting, vacation, etc.) It works best with market orders. It's a time/effort commitment but it's scalable too when confidence in the system is gained.

The basic system is to use the 5 minute gold or silver chart view (I use Netdania) and buy 1 position when the 5min RSI is 20 (low volume overnight hrs) or 30 (higher volume daytime hrs). Then as the trade moves in your favor, you target selling at 5min RSI of 60 (high vol) or 70 (low vol). You can do the same in reverse by shorting high RSI and covering low RSI. You always play the RSI, even if you end up taking a loss.  This doesn't happen to often. More often you'll break even if the trade is a dud (this happens a lot in low vol overnight periods), but most often win.

Advanced versions of this strategy can include carrying multiple positions added near(but not outside) of previous support/resistance points (depending on if you're playing long or short side), long gold/short silver pair or vice versa to hedge risk, playing the "trend" by favoring heavier position carries on longs (in metal bull trend) or shorts (metal bear trend), et al.

I invite folks to pick this apart. I've tuned it pretty well for myself but I'm always interested in the opinions and analysis of others :)

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NCOT
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Pailin, thank you for

Pailin, thank you for sharing... you don't / didn't have to but being the good guy you are, you did.

P.S.. could I borrow that 10k to put in my account please? wink

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Pailin's System Question...

Good morning, all. 

Pailin, you described your system as before.  Thank you for again helping others to see your world view.  Quite nice of you.

I have two questions.  First, at what point (if ever) do you sell before the RSI rises to 60 (and how often might that happen)?  Second, how are you determining support and resistance?  I ask that b/c you've often referenced longer-term chart Bollinger bands, as well as obvious horizontal support lines.

Intuitively, your system seems to be a disciplined buy high/sell low strategy using RSI extremes to minimize risk.  I view RSI as a loose measure of extreme emotions, helpful in determining when the trend has reached extremes.

For those considering day trading, I would clarify this.  Consider that you need to identify a low-risk/high-probability of success entry point that will allow you to skim profits quickly on a clear-as-day move in price.

I've seen references to systems on Turd's blog where it seems the strategy is to throw maximum dollars with max leverage on a few ticks of movement, make a decent amount, and call that success.  Yes, that's good for most trades.  But when it goes against you, it likely wipes you out or destroys your psych.  My advice would be hold out for a lower risk, higher probability with lower profit system.

- Jim M.

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Wait till a trend develops.

Wait till a trend develops. Then follow the trend, use trend lines and channels. When it breaks the trend get out. Use stop loss to what you can handle and keep moving them up as the price goes up. Look at long term charts for supports so you can get back in at a good price. When you catch a trend you don't have to be a good trader to make money. Just buy and hold, what you are already doing just wait for the trend it is coming. Sound easy but i can't always follow this general advice myself. 

Good Luck

Waiting for the trend.

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thank you

NCOT wrote:

Pailin, thank you for sharing... you don't / didn't have to but being the good guy you are, you did.

Thanks bro. I'm always up for being helpful :)

Today's 4:30 am - 7 am action is a picture perfect example of running the long side of my strategy, capturing a .50 price move. My platform, Forex.com, has me set up at min. size 500 oz of silver, so that makes this trade (which I did not do) worth $250. Do this twice/three times a day and your $10k becomes $20k in a month or so.

--> NCOT (and anybody else) - like all speculative day trading games, don't do this if you can't afford (really and truly) to lose 100% of your account balance and live to see another day (e.g. wifey doesn't kill you in your sleep!)

I'll fully disclose that I do not trade every single opportunity my system presents. It works best in a high volatility market, which the summer is not giving us right now. Also, I'm enjoying watching more than trading right now, and the weather is really nice here in New England. I'm going out more for early morning running and sitting outside reading books, etc. I'm just seasonally lazy, actually enjoying my unemployment (vs. over the winter w/blizzards etc) while my peers are slaving away at the office :)

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pailin
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excellent questions!

Jim-M, great questions. I'll answer you in-line in bold.

Jim-M wrote:

I have two questions.  First, at what point (if ever) do you sell before the RSI rises to 60 (and how often might that happen)? Assuming I've gone long at RSI 30, I always sell RSI 60. That does not mean I flip the trade to short, it just means I close the long. A 180 degree flip is a very advanced game, not for me, at least not right now. When a trade meanders, time decay can make your once wonderful looking RSI 30 buy look really stale at essentially the same price or even lower at RSI 60. Silver action today since 7am today is showing this. Overnights demonstrate this pretty regularly. The RSI can just ride a line for a long time and then when the move to RSI 60 occurs, the reality is it's only a tick up of a few cents, maybe not even enough to cover the spread of the trade meaning you've actually lost. Nothing is 100%. But you control against this by letting the trade go (by closing it) and waiting for the next opportunity. The longer you hold that trade open, the less it's a day trade and more of a commitment trade. That's violates the strategy and you'll get in a lot of trouble if the bigger picture moves against you. Physical and trend strategies work much better for commitment trades.  Second, how are you determining support and resistance?  I ask that b/c you've often referenced longer-term chart Bollinger bands, as well as obvious horizontal support lines. My comments throughout this site are not always about this strategy, lately they've been about larger trends because my strategy isn't as profitable in the low volatility summer doldrums. I've lost interest in it for that reason and have been commenting more on larger trends. For the 5min strategy, I identify support and resistance as the last highs/lows on the 5 min, 15min and 1hr charts. This is really important because if a spike jumps through one of those, you'll see stop/losses get triggered and a run trend will develop, likely to your detriment...a waterfall against your little day trade. Good to just get out asap and be happy to live to trade again. A truly mechanical trader would just trade those RSI points endlessly. If I could find a 'bot that could do this for me, I would set it and forget it, and fully expect to check in every few weeks to see an acocunt balance that was doubling every 3 wks. My problem is that I don't want to be tied to the computer all day/night and be a friggin' zombie :) Employing my strategy while monitoring larger time frames, Bollingers, etc. can give one a greater directional degree of confidence and speaks more to loading up heavier with leverage for fatter gains (with greater risk too), all advanced stuff that I'm still toying with and will employ when we get out of seasonal doldrums. It's not all fully worked out yet, so I'm not ready to share as I don't want others losing a lot of money trading it when I'm not even sure I'll trade it yet, and certainly not right now.

Intuitively, your system seems to be a disciplined buy high/sell low strategy using RSI extremes to minimize risk.  I view RSI as a loose measure of extreme emotions, helpful in determining when the trend has reached extremes. It's actually buy low/sell high. Not sure if that was a typo or you missed what I was describing? RSI combined with volume and support/resistance study can greatly reduce risk while identifying reward. I'm not fully scientific on those combinations yet, I still go with gut and usualy see my trades (in those combined analysis scenarios) go red for a bit before going very green. I've never lost BIG when using all three together in a disciplined way.

For those considering day trading, I would clarify this.  Consider that you need to identify a low-risk/high-probability of success entry point that will allow you to skim profits quickly on a clear-as-day move in price. Yes. Yes. Yes :)

I've seen references to systems on Turd's blog where it seems the strategy is to throw maximum dollars with max leverage on a few ticks of movement, make a decent amount, and call that success. No! This sucks, and I couldn't be more against it. I prefer to trade small with a relative degree of certainty that my trade is going green. Then repeat. And repeat again.  Yes, that's good for most trades.  But when it goes against you, it likely wipes you out or destroys your psych. Exactly. No good!  My advice would be hold out for a lower risk, higher probability with lower profit system.

- Jim M.

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Buy on RSI

pailin-

Thanks for posting your system again. I appreciate the fact that you are willing to share this info with newbs like me. I am long on household beans and rice so you and wife are always welcome to share a bowl if in FL when TSHTF.

My question, can you place a market limit order in Forex based on the RSI? I'm thinking you can't. If not, do you have alerts sent to you on the RSI signals so that you can place orders? As far as I can see, limit orders can only be placed based on price. If you want to buy based on RSI, you have to watch the charts, correct?

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Thanks pailin

I've been lurking on turd's site for about two months just trying to learn.  Never traded before.  Your posts are very helpful.  Still not sure if I'll jump in or just keep buying physical.

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Hat tip to Pailin for

Hat tip to Pailin for attempting such an exhaustive answer to an exhausting question!

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RSI 'bot

BlackHawk wrote:

I am long on household beans and rice so you and wife are always welcome to share a bowl if in FL when TSHTF. Thanks! One never just never knows. Honestly and truly, I fear the FEMA camps even more than Mad Max. At least with Mad Max you've got a semi-level playing field and thus chance of laying low and surviving. FEMA scenario will have all the technology our taxes have paid for to root us "terrorists" out to be dealt with appropriately. Oh joy.

My question, can you place a market limit order in Forex based on the RSI? I'm thinking you can't. If not, do you have alerts sent to you on the RSI signals so that you can place orders? As far as I can see, limit orders can only be placed based on price. If you want to buy based on RSI, you have to watch the charts, correct? Correct, you can't set limit orders on RSI, at least on Forex.com or any other forex platform I'm aware of. I'd be interested in looking at a platform that does allow this, though I'd still be worried about support/resistance points messing things up on a pure RSI system. Please - if anybody knows of one post it in this Topic :) If a platform did allow RSI limit orders, I'd probably throw $2500 into it and trade minimum size on no leverage for a month as an experiment. letting it run the longer of 1 month or balance to zero wipeout. It would be a really cool experiment.

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Pailin's System

Very nice of you to help us out Pailin. Seems like a pretty easy to follow system. Might be a good starting point for me as I get a better feel of the trading.

Do you place stops on your trades? Or just hover over it?

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PAilin, GFT lets you set

PAilin, GFT lets you set alarms at rsi levels (or any indicator level) , not quite the same, but at least u can sit in the garden and wait for the bell to ring

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take it slow Devise

Devise wrote:

Might be a good starting point for me as I get a better feel of the trading. Cool :) Please be aware the system defines that there will be break evens and losses but more (much more) often than not gains. If you "buy" RSI 30 you really need to close it at RSI 60 even if the price at that point has soured to break even or loss. It happens often enough to suck, like a string of bad hands of blackjack, but if you're strict you'll end up making money. Be prepared to take hits is all I'm trying to say. Try it on paper for a week or two first, or better yet trade it in a practice account online.

Do you place stops on your trades? Or just hover over it? I hover and don't like it because my life should be fuller than that. I place stops when the action is really volatile and I'm afraid of it moving way too far out or I need to step away for more than a minute or two (we all know how fast those waterfalls can come on :)

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Excellent advice. I'll give

Excellent advice. I'll give it a good test run and wait for better market conditions before starting.

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RSI 'bot

Pailin, thanks for explaining your system.  With Forex.com you can open a Metatrader account and with the Metatrader platform you can write a simple program to execute trades based on the RSI levels or any other indicators you choose.

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Pailin's System

pailin wrote:

The basic system is to use the 5 minute gold or silver chart view (I use Netdania) and buy 1 position when the 5min RSI is 20 (low volume overnight hrs) or 30 (higher volume daytime hrs). Then as the trade moves in your favor, you target selling at 5min RSI of 60 (high vol) or 70 (low vol). You can do the same in reverse by shorting high RSI and covering low RSI. You always play the RSI, even if you end up taking a loss.  This doesn't happen to often. More often you'll break even if the trade is a dud (this happens a lot in low vol overnight periods), but most often win.

And if your last position is being a losing one, do you maintain it or under which conditions do you exit from it? I understand from your post that you would close it when you are no longer going to keep watching the action, because you are going to sleep or whatever. What happens if you have a winning position when you have to go, do you close it at the current price and don't open another one until the RSI gives you again a signal to open, or do you reopen it at the current price when you are again in front of the screen?

pailin
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exits

Answer inline in bold.

Vicentín wrote:

And if your last position is being a losing one, do you maintain it or under which conditions do you exit from it? Exit at target RSI (not price, price takes backseat in this system, you're playing the RSI move). Always. Live to play another day. Target RSI is always a "go flat" play in this system, not a thinning of position. That would be a swing system, not day (or really minutes/hours) trade. I understand from your post that you would close it when you are no longer going to keep watching the action, because you are going to sleep or whatever. What happens if you have a winning position when you have to go, do you close it at the current price and don't open another one until the RSI gives you again a signal to open, or do you reopen it at the current price when you are again in front of the screen? If I'm stepping away for a few minutes, I put a stop/loss of even on. If I'm stepping away for longer, I close it green and be happy to have taken a profit. There's always going to be more opportunities -as long as it's volatile-, no need to break even or take a loss though on a winning trade, right? When I come back, wake up, whatever...it's a new day and a new RSI game. I'm not building a line and working it off in this system. It's RSI ping-pong. Price matters little aside from the macro trend giving some tendencies or favoritism (long in bull, short in bear). I'm in and out of a lot of my trades in 1hr or less back to flat.
 

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pailin
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'bots

rckt wrote:

With Forex.com you can open a Metatrader account and with the Metatrader platform you can write a simple program to execute trades based on the RSI levels or any other indicators you choose.

That's huge info there, thanks. Really need to look into that :)

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To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey

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