Gold Chart DAILY Technical Analysis hub

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silvernomics
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Gold Chart DAILY Technical Analysis hub

One of the best things about Turd's efforts are his Technical Analysis (TA) insights (chart-reading, for newbs).

There are a number of well-known and competent technical analysts out there who post on various forums, and you might yourself be a dab hand at applying fibs and lines and so on.

So let's use this thread as a place to gather up all the latest good technical analysis on the Gold Daily chart in one place, with charts and links if need be.

I'll do a separate thread for the longer term (Weekly/Monthly) and Hourly.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:31
silvernomics
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Second chart down - Radomski

Second chart down - Radomski notes low volume on the Daily and likely downward breach of the rising support line:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1308075111.php

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Gold - 14 Jun

Gold closed higher after finding support at the 1515 level. The 45 day MA is coming up just below and also is providing support. Resistance is 1532 followed  higher by 1546. We currently have a series of lower highs and lower lows on the chart and therefore a short term downtrend. The Bollinger band is contracting and is telling us that the summer blahs are here and that we should see a break in short term prices soon. In this world anything can happen, but I believe minus any big news we head sideways with a downside bias. I see a range-bound trade with 1473 as the floor with strong support with 1563 as the cap.

RSI is dead neutral and is telling us what we know, we are going nowhere fast. Stochastic is heading lower and approaching over-sold levels. I do not expect an embedded stochastic with a range trade, so I believe we can go a bit lower before that indicator reverses. The Bollinger band will serve to contain downside a downside move below support of the 45 day MA at 1512. Further support at 1486 and strong support at 1474.

The expanded view shows where the 1486 level of support lies in context. The next layer of support at 1473 is just above the Fibonacci 38.2 retracement level and is a strong natural support zone. If a major correction is in the cards and the range trade gives way to a longer term downtrend, I see the Fibonocci 50% retrace line falling where the chart says we have support from previous resistance. Also the 200 day MA is climbing up to join the support party in this area. I really like the 1425 area both on the daily and weekly charts as a downside limit.

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PHYS Elder Impulse Chart - 14 Jun

I chart PHYS and PSLV because some people want to invest in gold and silver within their retirement accounts such as a 401k or Direct Contribution retirement fund and are unable to acquire physical gold. I am a huge believer in physical gold as opposed to "paper" gold or exposure through the stock market. PHYS and PSLV are 100% allocated bullion funds that do not carry counter-party risk like GLD and SLV. Sophisticated traders can trade GLD and SLV with eyes wide open, as I do. But, investors should stay away from them IMO. Your only counter-party risk with PHYS and PSLV is the same counter-party risk you have with anything other than physical bullion in your own possession, namely government and their ability to disregard the Rule of Law.

The Elder Impulse chart for PHYS painted another red bar, meaning both the MACD histogram and the 13 day exponential moving average are both declining day over day. Red bars are a signal for a short trade, but only if price is below the 65 day EMA. In this case price is above that moving average and therefore the short signal is ignored. If either the MACD histogram or 13 day EMA increases day over day the bar will paint blue and indicate exit from all trades. If both increase then the bar will paint green indicating a long trade entry signal, but only if price is above the 65 day EMA. The Elder chart is designed to catch momentum moves and to get you out of the trade when momentum wanes. Typically you can expect to capture the middle third of the trade, missing the reversal before the entry and missing the blow-off at the exit.

Support at 13.15 is still valid with the swing low at 13.01 as additional support. As with gold, I see a range trade between 13.69 and 12.58. We have a series of higher highs and lower lows on the chart, forming a megaphone pattern. This is indicative of consolidation and a range trade. I think on this reaction wave higher, a lower high will be placed which will set up a potential short term downtrend if the swing low of 13.01 is taken out. I think we will likely see this. In the event of a break lower, the Bollinger band will provide support initially. Some of the premium has come out of PHYS and therefore the technicals are little ahead of the gold chart with stochastic just reaching the 20 level. MACD has put in a bearish cross and RSI has plenty of room to go lower.

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OGIGUS
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could be a turning point

could be a turning point :)

who ever bought that million ounces today will be looking to make some money out of that

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/06/15/gold-someone-struck-a-nerve/

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GLD - 15 Jun

Disclaimor: GLD is exposed to unallocated gold and is not suitable as an investment. These charts are for traders who understand what GLD is and know how to manage the risk. For bullion investment PHYS is more suitable and possesses 10o% allocated gold bullion.

GLD is tracking the 20 day moving average and closed higher at 149.12. Resistance around the 151 level and support around 147.50. The short term trend is down with a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. The wing high at 151 needs to be taken out to neutralize the trend. Further minor support exists at 145 with stronger support at 143.42. the 50 day moving average has supported the entire longer term up trend and continues to do so. RSI is mostly neutral with plenty of upside potential and stochastic is hooking over. It is not prudent to buy under the 20 day average within a short term downtrend, but the risk is measured for those want jump early on a potential reversal by putting a stop just below 147.19.

The longer view chart shows a triangle forming. This is a continuation pattern that shows consolidation. We are approaching the apex and a breakout point. Notice the Bollinger bands are narrowing, telling us volatility is due to increase soon. 147.19 looks to be the line in the sand and is critical support. A break below there puts the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace into play, a natural support zone buttressed by 2 previous swing lows. Also a break below the 50 day moving average at this point would not be constructive to the bullish argument since it has held going back to mid February.

The Elder Impulse chart painted a green bar today by virtue of both the 13 day exponential moving average and the MACD histogram increasing day over day. This gives a buy signal for long positions provided the price is above the 65 day EMA, which it is. The Elder system is designed to identify and enter a momentum move and exit when momentum wanes. This is signified by a blue bar that is painted when either the 13 day EMA or the MACD histogram starts decreasing day over day. The problem with using the Elder signal is that this chart is not currently trending well in a mostly sideways move. Whipsaws can result. Again a tight stop under 147.19 would minimize risk for those who see a short term trend reversal happening.

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Gold Technical and Fundamental Analysis for June 20, 2011

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Daily gold charts for Monday, 20 June

The daily chart with support and resistance:

blogger_svh4dfea403fsk.png

Price is approaching the top of the symmetrical triangle for another test. I think we break higher out of the triangle and re-test the closing high of 1563 this week on bad news regarding a Greek solution. The Bollinger bands are very narrow and suggest the pop one way or another is imminent.  

blogger_dar4dfea43ayfw.png

blogger_kcx4dfea491gix.png

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Elliott Wave Count

Does anyone have an Elliott Wave count for the correction since the peak price. 

It seems to me we need an ABC correction before it can take off for the next leg up.

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MatrixSentry

Quality posts. Good on you!

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Is it time to buy some GLD calls?

Breakout from the symmetric triangle? We'll see tomorrow me thinks. 1563 awaits a re-test.

blogger_qdn4e01418eepo.png

For the GLD traders, price is approaching resistance. I am somewhat concerned that there does not appear to be a lot of punch in this chart right now. Volatility is really in the dumper. If we do not get a hard move higher soon, we may have divergence developing in MACD between the 153 high and a potential future re-test of that price. On the other hand, what better time to buy call options when volatility is low and premium is subdued? I think a decent trade may materialize if we can get a close above resistance. Perhaps a near term 155 strike with a stop corresponding to a price just above the 20 day moving average?

blogger_kym4e014660gyx.png

The Elder Impulse chart is showing a green bar and suggests long exposure. Look at those Bollinger bands, they are telling me volatility has only one way to go at this point.

blogger_qqg4e01472ftps.png

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Thanks LevelHeaded. I try to

Thanks LevelHeaded. I try to keep it simple.

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Elder

I would think that Elder impulse chart you are referring to would get you in at the top and shake you out at the bottom. I don't happen to think that trying to chase price in metals is a particularly good idea. Its high risk that is for sure. I would think using this strategy would make you a mark for hunter-killer Algo Robots.  I think a better strategy in a bull is to buy the weakness when everyone is selling to you. Just my opinion of course and thats not taught in many 'textbooks', I just hate to see the gold community caught up in momentum buying when its so easy in a criminal market to get crushed repeatedly at highs when these signals trigger.

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Elder

Incidentally I would think the way to make money on the 'Elder Impulse Chart' is to turn it on its head so to speak and buy the impulse red bars that are going down, that is the low risk, good return play.

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SilverWealth wrote: I would

SilverWealth wrote:

I would think that Elder impulse chart you are referring to would get you in at the top and shake you out at the bottom. I don't happen to think that trying to chase price in metals is a particularly good idea. Its high risk that is for sure. I would think using this strategy would make you a mark for hunter-killer Algo Robots.  I think a better strategy in a bull is to buy the weakness when everyone is selling to you. Just my opinion of course and thats not taught in many 'textbooks', I just hate to see the gold community caught up in momentum buying when its so easy in a criminal market to get crushed repeatedly at highs when these signals trigger.

Actually it is designed to get you in when momentum has turned higher and then get you out when momentum wanes. It will capture the middle third of the move typically. It is for trend followers, not speculators who anticipate a change of trend. 

I do both types of trading and still use the Elder Chart occasionally in a manner that is anticipatory. When I use the chart, I usually buy on a blue bar from over-sold territory. More times than not, I will sell on other technical indications.

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SilverWealth wrote:I would

Deleted.

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This gap will fill

Those new to this TA business, this gap will fill like 95% of all gaps. Traders of leverage... ouch! Thank goodness for the stop loss order. For investors of physical gold, big yawn. BTW, I show the the GLD chart for traders and it is not appropriate for long term investments and exposure to physical gold IMO.

blogger_gia4e035519pik.png

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Gold charts - 27 Jun

Gold closed down again and in doing so closed below the Bollinger band. The next support level corresponds to the recent swing low at 1486. The Fibonacci 38.2% level should provide strong natural support at 1486. RSI is working its way down to over-sold territory, but still has room to the downside. MACD is getting close to bearish cross of the neutral line. Stochastic is just crossing into over-sold territory and the next question will be if it embeds or not. An embed below 20 for 3 days indicates a market changing character to accelerating downside momentum.

GLD bounced from the lows at minor support around 145.  Stronger support lies at 143.42 where chart support is being bolstered by the 100 day moving average.  Price has been outside of the Bollinger band for 3 days and rarely will do this more than 5 days. A short term rally is likely to bring price back within the bands.

That 143 support level is also the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace  level, a strong natural support zone.

The weekly chart shows price dead center in the trend channel. The 50 level stands out as support on the RSI study. With a current reading of 57, the 143 support level looks doable and would put price at the lower boundary of the channel.

PHYS, real and 100% allocated gold bullion fund, fell to support at 13.0. In doing so, it also fell outside of the Bollinger band. The 100 day moving average is supporting just below at 12.89.

This 13.0 level is also a strong natural support level as it falls at the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace level. We are now at the longer term trend line and a break here will put price into a broad congestion zone between 12.38 and 13.0.  A logical target for support in this range will be the next Fibonacci level at 12.68.

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