Disappointment with the performance of miners. What gives?

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Juan Moment
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No pain - no gain

One step forward, two steps back, dancing the miners waltz. As texpat pointed out, there are reasons galore for why prices are heading south. Its been in the wind for some time now that the share market is bound for a trip to the basement, so this red red green, red red green pattern doesn't really come as a surprise. What does surprise me however is how this time, as compared to the Fukushima drop, I am much more prepared to hold than to sell.

I remind myself of the reasons why I bought those shares in the first place, how the medium to long term fundamentals for PM's and commodities in general have not changed to the extend that the resources those companies are sitting on won't be worth a fortune at some time in the not too distant future.

Even though my cookie jar is only 15% in cash, and I will in all likelihood miss many great buying opps to come on this downward spin, especially should the bottom really fall out and the Dow (or ASX in my case) crash 20% from where we are today, I still believe (turning to hope) that most of the companies in my portfolio will bounce back sooner or later to earn me handsome returns. Metals prices would have to collapse dramatically, over an extended period, for those miners to be failed ventures. I don't have a crystal ball in my office like the Turd, but my gut feeling tells me that come New Years eve, the miners will have returned from the basement with a magnum bottle of champus. If not, I have a few cans of cheap beer without them.

On this note, as the ol saying goes, 'no pain, no gain.'

Blue Sky
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My Miners

My miners are on fire ORKO and SSL (SNDFX PK in US)

silverwood
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Jim Sinclair's suggestions

I agree with you JP about the need to return dividends to shareholders. What I find most interesting about JS suggestion was to make a special dividend in the form of a gold coin. You could use a silver coin if you produce silver. His reasoning for this would be to create complications for the shorts. They, in my opinion(IMO), would simply look for another easier play. Also the spread, long metals/ short miners, would be corrupted.

Many of the large producers are capable of this form of dividend payment. I am not sure how this would play out on a tax basis though.

Prem124
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Jim Sinclair's suggestions

Dividend in cash would be simple to implement and would work well. I think creating special dividend in gold is overly complicated. I have nothing against shorts and a lot of shorts are in the market as general public believes gold price to be in the bubble. The action in pm miners to me is the indication of market sentiment even if I believe market is wrong at the moment.

Jasper Puddlemaker
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When/if that happens (large $

When/if that happens (large $ dividends, or dividends in AU/AG) this sector will go ballistic. The South Africans in the last bull are an example of this.  Man I would love to take metals in place of $; that is the ultimate "middle finger" to the system :)

KiniK
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After hearing numerous views

After hearing numerous views on the topic, but these are the reasons that seem to be the most reasonable to me.

1.  (From Lawrence Roulston) There is sometimes that we forget that the market is bigger than it us in North America and that we are driving the price of Gold and Silver up the most.  I would like to suggest that while some of the rise in the PM prices are due to us, I really think that it is the Chinese/Indians/Russians and Euro Collapse fearing Europeans who are really driving the PM Prices and ONLY North Americans and a few Europeans responsible for the Mining Stocks.  Most of the people, especially in China and India, a) cannot buy miners in North America/Australia b) don't understand miners so hesitant to buy and c) Many Chinese have had bad experiences with Chinese mining stocks (and Chinese stocks for that matter) so they would rather own the bullion.  So, its the world buying the Bullion but only the North Americans buying the stocks.

2. Market Psychology - Many retail investors and Institutional Money don't really believe in the current PM price levels thinking we are in a possible bubble so it stands to reason that they wouldn't be interested in stocks whose underlying value is in question.  Once the general public starts really believing that the current PM levels, i.e. 1500 gold and 35-40 silver is for real and here to stay, the PM's will rise and the miners will especially rise.

3.  These stocks are at the end of the day, stocks, and susceptible to market tanks and margin calls so I think a lot of the pros pricing in end of QEII and European fears have affected them.

4.  I believe as stated earlier, the reports that the hedge funds going long the PM's and short the Stocks.  From what I know, these have been cleared out.

Ford_Prefect
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SLW is HFT slave

hpx wrote:

I've got a large part of my portfolio in SLW, and I'm down 25% (my timing is marvellous). Doesn't matter that much though, I'm saving up to put more money down up ahead, because it is an insurance against economic disasters more than an investment.

I'm hoping to buy First Majestic if we get additional weakness soon.

I managed to get in and out of SLW with a profit earlier in the year. But I noticed it ticked absolutely in time with indices which leads me to believe the HFT bots bitch slap it. Once the end of QE2 starts the SPX sell-off we should see some really attractive entry points.  OR, if you just want leverage to AG then AGQ is the beast to buy.

Big Rocks
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Pretium rocks

Pretium is a great choice- compare it to Seabridge at half the price plus you get  a BJ for free -biggest bonanza grade drill holes I've ever seen >100 OZ/ton!

I own since it started trading and I'm adding on any dips to the mid 8s.  Look for a major US listing by end of year-that will move the stock.   I rate it number 2 on my best explorers to own behind rubicon.

good luck.

Big Rocks
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miners are not a safe haven

Physical metal is a safe haven.   Texpat all your reasons are right on.  I would add one more-Risk Aversion.

Miners along with stocks are viewed as risk assets.  Gold and silver are holding up well because they are safe haven assets esp. Gold.

Miners have counter party risk gold does not. Miners have geographical risk, input cost risk, labor risk etc. etc.

So  miners seem to follow the market and all the players amplify that for all the reasons Texpat stated above.  I have a big postion and I'm not selling now that opportunity has passed.   come fall expect many of these miners to take off so don't get shaken out.

Ford_Prefect
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political risk

Big Rocks wrote:

Physical metal is a safe haven.   Texpat all your reasons are right on.  I would add one more-Risk Aversion.

Miners along with stocks are viewed as risk assets.  Gold and silver are holding up well because they are safe haven assets esp. Gold.

Miners have counter party risk gold does not. Miners have geographical risk, input cost risk, labor risk etc. etc.

So  miners seem to follow the market and all the players amplify that for all the reasons Texpat stated above.  I have a big postion and I'm not selling now that opportunity has passed.   come fall expect many of these miners to take off so don't get shaken out.

Don't forget they become targets of nationalization, super-taxes (Australia) and other issues not in their control.  It's why I prefer Canada and Mexico.

ClinkinKY
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Question from a noob

I'm very new to all this but would like to ask what may be a stupid question. Is Barrick (ABX) considered a "miner"  by definition on this forum? Also, is this a stock that would be a wise "buy and hold" for the inevitable time when the "fiat hits the fan"? Right now I'm simply stacking physical silver but would like to dabble a little in some gold.

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Eric Original
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Barrick

Sure, it's a miner.  A huge, safe, stodgy, boring miner.  But it pays a dividend, which most of them don't.  And it will go up when gold goes up, more or less.  

For a first dip of a pinky toe into the shark tank, yeah, Barrick is fine.

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brown
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Really bad idea!

I think it's a really bad idea. The time erosion factor of the options can rob you of your entire "investment" even if the base asset (GDXJ in your case) actually goes up. I tried the same thing with GDX calls once and finished almost with a wipe-out even though  GDX was up by almost a double for the same time period!

JoeyJoeJoe
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Just to reinforce how much the miners are oversold...

Just to reinforce the fact about how much the miners (and energy stocks) are oversold, here's a technical take:

http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Bermans-Call.aspx

Click the third "educational" segment of the video, it's only three minutes.  Basically, the chart shows the XGD/GLD ratio has shrunk by ~45% since 2006.   

Wintermute
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  To me it seems as if miners

To me it seems as if miners still respond stronger when gold goes down compared to when it goes up :(. Hope we will see this situation reversed soon, i.e. the miners outperforming gold.

Nowhuffo
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Question from a noob

The subject you bring up is probably worthy of its own thread.

Many respected gold analysts recommend a varying percentage of physical as a basis for a sound pm portfolio.  If you are collecting silver adding on physical gold would probably be a swell idea, before jumping in with the sharks.

LJ
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Eric Original wrote: Yeah,

Eric Original wrote:

Yeah, pretty PO'd at my miners too, and plan to scale out of them gradually.  Not dumping in a panic right now though.  I track the GDXJ as a benchmark or index and it's sitting on pretty good support right now at 34ish.  If I didn't have miners right now, I'd be thinking about buying some, not selling.

Yep, the miners have been beaten down recently.  I bought the gold juniors ETF (ZJG.TO) on the decisive $1444 break.  Today we sit at gold $1500 and the ETF is officially down 17%.  All pain and no gain.  It became a hold and wait for the break later this year.  It has treated me well in the past and this time it has just become frustration.

I also agree about the dividends, although it is tough for small producers.  However, the big boys like Barrick, Kinross and Yamana have also seen horrible selling so it is not just symptomatic of the juniors.  Even the major silver producers with stupidly low 'production' costs are down drastically (SLW, SVM).

The last time I saw an opportunity like the one currently being offered was in the late fall of 2008.  I just shook my head and plowed into the deals - you could not lose.  If you don't jump on the cheap current valuations, you are really going to miss out on the run.  Someone is buying these cheap shares and they are going to make a killing.  If you are selling here, I pity you.

loriewil
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Warrants: More bang for your buck!

I see no mention of long-term warrants in any of the comments. Why buy the stock if the company offers a long-term warrant? Why? Because they are normally 45% to 65% less expensive than the associated stock  and at the end of a major up-leg in the stock have outperformed it usually by 50% to 100%. Now that is getting more bang for your buck.

I have written many articles on commodity-related long-term warrants (I seem to be the only one doing so) over the past 7/8  years and developed 2 proprietary indexes - the Gold and Silver Warrants index (GSWI) and the broader Commodity-related Company Warrants Index (CCWI). You can get all the details here:

1. The “Secret” World of Gold & Silver Company Warrants http://www.munknee.com/2011/05/the-secret-world-of-gold-silver-company-warrants/

2. Gold & Silver Warrants Index (GSWI) Update  http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/gold-silver-warrants-index-gswi-update/

3. Buying Gold & Silver Company Warrants is Easy & Profitable – Here’s How (and Why!)  http://www.munknee.com/2011/06/buying-gold-silver-company-warrants-is-easy-profitable-%e2%80%93-here%e2%80%99s-how-and-why/

Enjoy and profit.

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