Corn

In Southern Kansas, the drought has hit us pretty hard.  Corn got up to about 4 ft tall and was dying.  Most producers swathed and baled it.  Gonna try to find some way to deal with the nitrate.

The bean plants look better, but the problem is that it is so hot (most days 100 - 105) that the blooms aren't setting.  What pods are there show a lot of 1 bean pods and even then, the beans are small.

No harvest yet, even of the early beans, so yields are yet to be determined.

If this area is representative of the country, then stocks going into the year will be much smaller than normal.  What I don't know is what other parts of the country look like.

If we get a market puke out tomorrow in commodities, maybe will provide a nibble opp on corn.

Do you guys think the CORN ETV will be solid this fall?  It looks like it has done nothing but go up steadily since inception.

85 to 90 % 0f all Corn grown in America is, or has been, contaminated by GMO.  Some believe the percentage is higher. GMO foods are poisonous to the physiology of any digestive tract that absorbs it.

Stick that in your corn cob pipe but don't smoke it.

I should've already done this yesterday but I had to go out and drink copious amounts of whisky. Anyway, when the markets opened this morning, I went long AGA @ $14.05, which is a double short in 25% each for corn, soybeans, wheat and sugar. Only sugar I wasn't entirely convinced by, the others were technically far overbought and due for a correction.

Soybeans sat at an RSI(14) of 76, which it hadn't even been at when it reached the last high at the beginning of this year. Wheat was at an RSI(14) of 71.55, last time this happened was also in February, just before a major down movement. Corn identically was playing an overheated game at an RSI of about 73. All three are now stuck with a three black crows candlestick pattern on the hourly, and I doubt they'll head up easily soon again. I might be wrong, of course, but with a downwards move of each about 4% in corn and wheat, almost 1.5% in soybeans, I can see some more downside in the books. I am of course hoping for an epic plunge like we've seen in June, but heck, wishful thinking and hope make a really bad investing strategy.

I'm planning to at least give the AGA play a few days if this keeps looking good, but the strained harvest and supply situation might put an early stop to that plan and throw me out of my rather tight stop loss. There's plenty of support ready for soybeans, corn and wheat; and I really dislike being stuck with sugar in the basket.

Still though, I wouldn't want to be long any of these agri plays right now. Not with the phantom dollar strength we got going right now. And there's also to consider that oil is starting to look due for a down move, which it'll characteristically do with amazing alacrity and vigor. That'll also put a dent in the ethanol value of corn, compounded by the fact that it was already starting to get too expensive to be used as a good cattle feeder, and we'll have a classic overshoot downwards that'll prove to be a nice buying point. I'm not sure about oil though. The plans to boycott Syria could turn out to become a bullish surprise and even though we've seen limited up movement lately, the fact that oil remained strong against dollar gains is promising, and more 'good' economic news might just offer enough fuel for a quick stab at 92.

Anyway, exciting stuff will happen.

Good trade on shorting the grains. I've been reluctant to be long corn with harvest right around the corner. So there definitely could be more to the downsize, and I may change my entry points. Farmer selling may keep a lid on the corn market,  but users should be around to buy the breaks. I'm also looking for a break to buy the bean market as I feel this crop has deteriorated like corn and may be the surprise market. Check out JJG for beans, corn and wheat without the sugar.

"No offense but let's keep this thread to the discussion of trading corn.  I believe there is another forum for these theories."

No offense taken. Know what you are trading when it comes to corn, or anything else when it comes down to it. This has nothing to do with your perceived "theories" it's FACT!

And FACTS will influence the price of Corn or any other grain. As more and more intelligent people become aware of the dangers of American grown corn, what do you suppose will happen to it's price? Time pull you head out of the sand and to get on board td. You could make a lot of money when the time comes. It's called "insider information". It's how that works when people are willing to accept the real over the unreal.

thanks for the freedom to express my thoughts, Turd.

Corn is finally selling off a bit here. 

Any targets on the downside for some nibble points?

I've got many stink bids just above 7 bucks but may dip my toe back in the water sooner to start getting a position built back up.