USDA throws the market a curve with bearish acres and old crop stocks. Plenty of acres at 92.3. Will be interesting to see if the traders think these numbers are realistic. Expect limit down to start the day. More tonight.
Corn
June 30, 2011 - 8:57am
#62
Crop Report
June 30, 2011 - 11:54am
#63
corn
Corn is at 2 month lows and down 20%. I guess that means I should let the Banksters do all the buying off of 'bad news' and fright-wig manipulation. The TA textbooks published by Bankster-owned houses tell me to 'wait' for relative strength before climbing back in. I guess I should wait for it to bounce at least 10% before I enter? That way my Bankster friends have time to buy low and sell me their stock of corn at higher prices.
I don't know anything about Corn even though I was raised in Iowa. But I do know a sale down at the local Piggly-Wiggly when I see one. Grandma taught me that one. Still, most traders would rather wait until the grocer marks up the price of everything before heading down to the store. Why? Because thats what the Bankster-owned technical analysis books tells him to do. Oh well..... ho hum....
June 30, 2011 - 11:57am
#64
I dont really get this?
Corn
I dont really get this?
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2011 is estimated at 92.3 million
acres, up 5 percent from last year, and the second highest planted acreage in
the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in
2007. Growers expect to harvest 84.9 million acres for grain, up 4 percent
from last year.
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2011 totaled 3.67 billion bushels,
down 15 percent from June 1, 2010. Of the total stocks, 1.68 billion bushels
are stored on farms, down 21 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at
1.99 billion bushels, are down 9 percent from a year ago. The
March - May 2011 indicated disappearance is 2.85 billion bushels, compared
with 3.38 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Released June 30, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Not that great of news but the price gets hammered!
June 30, 2011 - 12:31pm
#65
Don't believe everything the government tells ya
I bought corn on the low this morning. I'm already up 10%.
Think of the grain market like the silver market only worse!!!! These markets were being manipulated by insiders back in the 1800s when silver and gold were just money. Buy the weakness, sell the strength. I expect to sell either today or tomorrow for a nice profit.
You have eyes in the real world and see the flooding, weather, shortages, inflation. Trust your eyes, not your broker.
June 30, 2011 - 2:01pm
#66
Limit Down
Like the bottom fishing attitude here! Bought some more Sept this morning and Dec just now. Bet the Chinese did too.
GLTA
June 30, 2011 - 3:02pm
#67
Nibble Nibble says the stink
Nibble Nibble says the stink bid fish.
June 30, 2011 - 3:26pm
#68
Me love you long time!
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/usda-shocker.html#comments
Trader Dan sees the crop report just as we do! Mostly just bad lighting, make-up, and too much beer.
June 30, 2011 - 3:36pm
#69
CORN
I'm thinking about buying some of the CORN etf. Good idea?
June 30, 2011 - 5:41pm
#70
Eric,
Tough to say, but
Eric,
Tough to say, but buying in the face of major drops based on NO true fundamentals will probably pay off at some point.
June 30, 2011 - 8:33pm
#71
Limit Down
Possibly the biggest drop on record with corn losing 12% of value today. December corn traded down to 5.83 synthetically today, back up around the 5.90 support level tonight. Risk now is the 5.48 support from earlier this spring. Would think users find value in corn at this 5.90 level. With hot weather in the forecast, we might expect some short covering before the 4th of July weekend. Not a time to be short now. I'm still on the sidelines.
Some out of the money calls would be a safe way to play this market now.
I'm leaving early tomorrow for a long weekend on the lake with grandkids. Everyone have a safe weekend. If your celebrations involve alcohol, please have a designated driver.
June 30, 2011 - 10:31pm
#72
uh...corn?
I would kick myself if this shot back up and I wasn't in. My primary market is silver but I chew on corn here and there. Anybody getting in at these prices? Waiting out?
My plan is to buy really weak here, like 2-3 september contracts..
Ferret. you still in?
June 30, 2011 - 11:32pm
#73
Bought
I picked up some corn this morning, almost at the bottom. Still in. I think if there is weakness tomorrow, say down 15-20 cents I will pick up more. If there is strength I will probably sell. I consider this a day trade. Been in and out twice since last Friday.
Eric, this market moves like the silver, up and down but the corn harvest is definately going to come up short. Corn is near its bottom. The wheat harvest is also going to come up short and this will prop up corn. They wheat fields here are full of rust.
There is plenty of wobble in the market so don't be afraid to stink bid if it is approaching your marks
June 30, 2011 - 11:39pm
#74
survey
Farmers due a crop survey in August which is the bench mark for the harvest. The market will adjust to this survey regardless of what the Gov. says.
The condition of the crop is not going to be very good. This mornings acreage report does not reflect condition.
July 1, 2011 - 12:30am
#75
$36 corn.... Let me say this about that.......
I know some corn growers and if corn goes to $36 they will buy the whole fucking world. Let that be said and let it be written. There is a racial segment of our society will not be real happy with these old boys owning their their thug asses either. $36 is a game changer you should really think about. Some of the boys I know would raise their own private army with that per bu. cash. Stop and think. Does anyone really think the powers that be would let farmers have that kind of clout? Sheeeeeit................. $36 bux is a helluva thought tho. I can hear it now "say bro could you let me hold a bushel till Friday"
July 1, 2011 - 9:20am
#76
ouch!
Corn got hammered over night. I am hoping that the ground truth available to US traders will move the price back up today.
July 1, 2011 - 9:20am
#77
U.S. Exporters Sell 1.14 Million Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers
Now that's a relief. For the last 25 hours, I thought we were the only ones buying corn...
U.S. Exporters Sell 1.14 Million Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers
2011-07-01 13:00:02.398 GMT
By Daniel Enoch
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. exporters sold 1.14 million
metric tons of corn to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department
of Agriculture said today in an e-mailed message. The USDA said
360,000 tons are for delivery in the 2010-2011 marketing year,
which ends Aug. 31. The rest, 780,000 tons, is to be delivered
in the 2011-2012 marketing year, the USDA said.
July 1, 2011 - 10:17am
#78
Goldman comment
Looks like we're already there for 6 month corn.
"Revising our price forecasts lower but still expecting soybeans to outperform We are revising our corn and wheat price forecasts lower and expect prices to decline further. While we reiterate our expectation for soybeans to outperform corn prices, we expect the move lower in corn prices to limit the upside in soybean prices and are revising our forecasts lower as well. Our updated 3, 6 and 12 month price forecasts are $5.90/bu, $5.75/bu, $5.70/bu for corn; $5.90/bu, $6.00/bu, $6.20/bu for wheat and $13.00/bu, $13.75/bu, $13.75/bu for soybeans. On aggregate, these updated forecasts point to year-over-year returns of the S&P GSCI Agriculture spot index of 7%, -7% and 0% in 3, 6 and 12 months and a sharp easing in ag inflation by year-end."
July 1, 2011 - 10:26am
#79
bottom
Grain prices often peak shortly before the new harvest. This is starting to feel like a bottom. Bought some more corn this morning on the opening hoping to sell at noon.
July 1, 2011 - 10:34am
#80
Buying Limit Down
FYI
I see comments of buying corn yesterday. July corn in delivery so no limits it was down 80c or so. Other months locked limit down 30c. Everyone needs to always talk with their broker on limit days. While Dec corn was limit down at 6.20, it could have been bought at 5.83 by buying the July contract down 80c and then immediately spreading to the Dec.
Can also be done synthetically with options when there is no front month in delivery.
CORN ETF should have been bid with the lower price accounted for.
July 1, 2011 - 11:46am
#81
I had a CORN option close
I had a CORN option close instantly yesterday when I bid the low end of the spread. Didn't expect that.
The CORN options are very thinly traded so you need to be patient when bidding. Don't chase them, let the market wobble to your bid. I have seen days when I was the only trader executing on an option.
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