Eric O's Favorite Gold Miners

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HCA
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2012

Eric,

You've got me curious, other than miners, what are you also bullish about in 2012?

If I may ask.

Eric Original
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More than just miners

I'm thinking general equities across the board, pretty much.  You could just buy the Dow or the S&P 500 and make money for a while here this year, I think.  Some easy ETF's for those are DIA and SPY.

I've got some XLB, which is an ETF of basic materials producers.  I think oil and oil companies will do well.  Easiest way is to just buy XLE or go more aggressive into oil sands producers like SU, CNQ, or CVE.  I think natural gas is getting close to a bottom, so I've been in and out of HGT lately, looking right now to get back in.

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Explor Resources

Too bad I told you not to just rush out and buy it on Monday.  Oh well.

Reporting some good drilling today, 114.8 grams over 7.8 meters, and the stock is up 11%.  Need to look at it more seriously if we can get a pullback.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Explor-Intersects-114-8-g-ccn-1215445963.h...

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Hey EO

Just stopping in and making a rare appearance to say hello and to totally agree with you on what you just laid out. I'm a lurker here sometimes believe it or not. I should visit more often.

You're right. Were gong to melt up and I've been talking to my dad about divesting and getting in very soon besides his miner plays. Broad based stuff like S&P 500/400 maybe and the Russell 2000, stuff like that. I need to get involved and start researching some investment vehicles and checking the charts etc.   I'm excited and pretty optimistic they've screwed things up so bad that the markets can't help but get re-inflated. Counter-intuitive thinking maybe but that seems to be where we are at in this QEasing world. 

You know the playbook and saw this coming back in December also. I remember reading the post back then.

Keep up the good work your doing here. Invaluable stuff going on and being said in here that probably has real market value.

Have you ever considered a newsletter? wink

GTG...Dad stuff the next couple days. He's doing well.

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Good Luck on the Dad Thing,

Good Luck on the Dad Thing, DPH.  It's been a rough couple of months, I know.  

I'll be putting my thoughts on the Santa thing out on Main shortly.

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The Big Picture

Just laid out my view on Main St.  I'm going to put it here as well, so that it's easier for me to find it again and refer back to it if necessary.

A direct question from a friend via private message moved me to clarify my thoughts about Santa's latest.  No reason it can't go on Main.  Here's a copy:

Truly, I think it is more of the same as what a lot of people have been saying for a while.  QE to infinity.  The only difference is that he gives us another thing to keep an eye on, something we can put a number on, namely decisions by the ISDA (basically the Big 5 Banks) as to whether something is a default or not.

At a 50 cents on the dollar payback on Greek debt, they say "no, it's not a default", thus protecting themselves.  In the meantime they must print money like crazy to keep everybody else from going belly up.  They don't want any more MF Globals out there.  Now Sinclair is saying that this week it will get to 30 cents on the dollar on Greek debt, and again the ISDA will say "no, it's not a default", thus protecting themselves again.  And more global money printing to keep everybody else from going belly up.  But Santa is saying that at some point, 20 cents, 10 cents, 0 cents?, they won't be able to say it's not a default anymore.  At that point, it's the Big 5 Banks that are in danger of going belly up, and at that point, money printing takes another quantum leap to the sky, in order to save those big banks.    Those Big Banks control the printing press at the Fed, and they'll do whatever it takes to save themselves.  

All this money printing, a lot of it now, and even more of it later, is good for PM's, good for miners, good for general equities across the board.  Those big drops we saw, like in 2008, and at some points here and there in 2011, come around whenever people begin to doubt whether they will print or not, or whether they are printing fast enough.  What Sinclair is saying that there can be no doubt that they will print whatever it takes.  Liquidity to the sky.  

​This ties in directly with what I posted on Main St over two weeks ago, and that's why I'm not really surprised by any of this.  Here's a copy of that:

I've shared this with some friends a couple of times in recent days on PM threads, but I see no reason not to put it here.  Go ahead and flame me all you want.  Tell me about all the Black Swans that are out there waiting to crush us to death.  Tell me about manipulation of the metals and the miners.  Tell me about how all the debt is no good and the Dow is going to 4000.  Tell me about how all this money printing is unconscionable, that they are secretly printing, and yet at the same time tell me that QE3 is not coming yet!  Folks here hate the idea that the markets will start to look better all year and help Obama get reelected.  That doesn't mean it's not happening.  Don't let your own sense of justice cloud your view of what is actually happening.   Take Bank of America for instance.  If there was justice in the world, it would go bankrupt.  Any objective look at it tells you that is bankrupt.  It aught to go to zero.  It deserves to go to zero, but it's going higher.  That's just the way it is.  Get used to it.  You can't invest based on what deserves to happen.  You have to invest on what is happening.

Here's a copy of my PM from Friday night.  Fire away!!

I'm so bullish right now I can hardly sit still.  I haven't felt this way since March '09.

All through the fall, we've been worrying about Europe, selling shit and buying dollars out of fear the world is going to stop spinning.  In the meantime, TPTB have made it clear they are going to print whatever it takes.  Today, all of Europe got downgraded.  Supposed to be armageddon right?  The market yawned.  They've been selling the rumor for months.  It's time to buy the news.

I called a bottom in gold on New Years Eve out on Main, and I'm sticking with that.  Not only am I bullish on gold, but on silver, miners, Dow and S & P as well.  All this printed up money from the last three years is going to find some velocity and go to work.  We'll have a real sweet spot through most of 2012 where everything goes up before folks get worried about inflation or bond rates rising.  I'm loading up.

Just my opinion, of course.  Worth every penny you paid for it.  yes

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CUM

Hard to resist posting on this new startup that has produced 7,800 oz Au, 161,800 oz Ag and 22.2 milli0n pounds of Cu in the first 4 months of operation. The unusual TSX symbol is for Copper Mountain (Cu + M). 

The stock has been knocked down 16% to around $5 since the company failed to meet guidance due to startup issues. These now seem to be resolved and an independent report is quite bullish.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bc-copper-outlook-copper-mountain-170800388.html

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I was a buyer of Keegan KGN

I was a buyer of Keegan KGN today, shares are cheap enough for me at this point, KGN appears to be one of the better values in the junior sector, time will tell!!

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Raising the bar

As I mentioned a while back, I'm in the process of steadily raising the bar in terms of market cap, for stocks that I really want to be involved with.  As of now, I'm making it $25M.  Unfortunately that means that, for now, Northern Tiger, Gowest, PC Gold, and Golden Goliath aren't making the cut.

It's ironic that this comes right at a time when the pennies are getting more fun to trade.   I'll still be watching, and I might still dabble here and there, and I might chatter about them over on BOG's thread in cases where they're also on her list.  But I'll  seldom or never be updating this thread about them unless they can get up and stay over my benchmark.  I won't be answering inquiries about stocks that are smaller than that either.

What's wrong with them?  It's really just a matter of personal taste and comfort level.  Too small, too illiquid, spreads are ridiculously wide, too much dilution to raise money, insider trading is the order of the day, whatever.  They can be fun, but they're just not really for me.  

For those who love the pennies, I wholeheartedly recommend BOG's thread.  I'm an avid reader myself!  But here on this thread I'll be trying to stick to my knitting, that being producing companies and major development projects.

(this is probably a screaming buy signal for all four of those companies, LOL)

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Enforcing a maximum size as well

Just can't get excited about anything over $5B either.  Too boring.  Bye bye, AEM and NGD.

Too big and they are too mild for me.  Too small and they are too wild for me.  We all need to find our own "niche".

niche.jpg

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For Eric regarding taxes

Hi Eric -

I do not know Canadian taxes/your personal situation.  But you sound like you are a professional who also may work in the accounting field (guess from some of your posts).

Regardless - I try to strive for LT capital gains.  Do you strive for LT gains - or do you think your trading can get you better than LT capital gain rates vs. ST gains/income tax rate.

Just very curious how you approach that issue/or don't.

My guess is that you had losses last year - so trading does not matter until you catch up to last year.

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A miner observation

Yesterday And today.....miners blasted Up at the open and got slammed back down thru the day. It looks like  the kind of manipulation/capping that Andy H talks about.

Miners ,like the metals.... want to  take off, start to soar, and get slammed back.

Will be curious to see how long this pattern will go on. 

it seems like the sentiment has turned bullish,but the manipulation hasnt gone away.

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hello jmsvett

Actually, you are partially right.  I am a CPA, but I'm right here in the good old US of A.  

My situation might be quite different from most though, since almost all my trading is done within a Roth IRA.  No need for me to worry about long term, short term, etc.  No problems with tracking basis, tax reporting, nothing.  It's quite nice. yes

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Eric are you only trading on

Eric are you only trading on TSX? Shanta gold is a nice emerging producer on AIM. They are to commence production from first mine in Tanzania in April with second mine to be opened a year later. 150 000 ozs a year real posibility with both mines being fairly high grades open pits. Following their last drill results and secure financing they had a bit of rally recently but their market cap is still small with a great upside.

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Prem124 wrote: Eric are you

Prem124 wrote:

Eric are you only trading on TSX? Shanta gold is a nice emerging producer on AIM. They are to commence production from first mine in Tanzania in April with second mine to be opened a year later. 150 000 ozs a year real posibility with both mines being fairly high grades open pits. Following their last drill results and secure financing they had a bit of rally recently but their market cap is still small with a great upside.

I have a well known and serious bias toward Canada (mostly Ontario and Quebec), Mexico, and Nevada. If you are on to something good in Tanzania I welcome you to keep us posted so that all the readers of this thread may profit!  High Ho, Shanta Gold!

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IPO's

Hi Eric

I have just been invited to participate in an IPO. Very small gold/silver/copper project in Peru thru Northern Securities. They are only looking for a total of $1.5M with about 20M units with a full share warrant attached to each common share to start a small production operation with a 6 month payback.

As my name suggests I am a Canadian and rarely venture outside of Canada in terms of my investments. I find myself to be very similar to your style. Junior producers - Golden Band, Wesdome, Claude ...... 

Have you ever been down this road? Any advice?

Thanks - as always my best wishes to you. 

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Sask

No, I haven't.  But Rick Rule is always talking about how this is a tremendous way to go, if you can get access to it.  See his latest KWN interview for an idea of what he's talking about.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/1/31_Rick_...

Typically, from what I've seen, for the price of a share you get a share, and a warrant.  The "free" warrant is the "carrot" that is necessary for these tiny companies to raise money.

My only advice is that you make sure that this is a company/project that you believe in on it's own merits, regardless of the warrant.  I would not let my money get suckered into something iffy, just because they are dangling the upside of this "free" warrant in front of my face.  If it goes down, it's going down, warrant and all.

I bet BOG might have some more insight into this.

Good Luck!

Of course, there are those wheeler dealers, who are into this kind of stuff, who are selling the warrants and/or the stock as fast as they can, or selling short stock and keeping warrants, or whatever.  This is a shark tank that I have no interest in getting involved in either.  And again, I bet BOG can tell you some stories about these guys as well.  

Sometimes, it seems like some of the games that go on with this stuff almost guarantees that the common stock is doomed from the start.   Just ask BOG about Joe Dwek.

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Kaminak Gold

Kaminak will be kicking off a $17M, 50,000 meter drilling program soon on all their best targets.  I picked up some KAM recently at $2.00, so I'm feeling pretty good about this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kaminak-Scheduled-Begin-ccn-1567424579.htm...

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Rainy River

RR put out some drilling results today.  Looks like things are proceeding as planned.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Rainy-River-Resources-ccn-525488586.html?x=0

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Don't fight the Tape. Don't fight the Fed.
Buy Strength, Sell Weakness. Stay in Gear with the Tape.
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Current Top Holdings

A question via private message reminded me that maybe it's a good time to list out my top holdings again.  Top Ten, in order, are:

AuRico, Primero, First Majestic, Endeavour, Richmont, Wesdome, Detour, Claude, Kirkland Lake, and Golden Band.

Primero has been the laggard of the bunch.  Claude and Golden Band not exactly lighting the world on fire either.

Wesdome, First Majestic, and AuRico have been leading the pack so far YTD.

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Don't fight the Tape. Don't fight the Fed.
Buy Strength, Sell Weakness. Stay in Gear with the Tape.
Leave your Opinions at the Door. Sleep Better at Night.

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