Precious metal miners: fathoming the abyss

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Gwyde
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Recovery smothered

The post-electoral optimism on American stock market seems having run its course. Over the week, market indices nevertheless hold on to modest gains.

Precious metals once more are a different story. We enjoyed a brief recovery till Tuesday, which however was smothered during the following days. On balance gold is down 1.65% to $1207.4. Silver sheds 4.72% to $16.55. The PGM's keep bifurcating with Platinum easing another 2.1% to $922 and Palladium going against the trend as usual, firming 7.75% over the week to $723, after posting a 12 m high earlier this week. The stronger greenback offsets lower precious metal prices, which supported miners. The HUI adds a modest 1.06% over the week, making HUI/Gold firm a little to 0.151, as you notice in the first graph on the gold miner pulse blog page

Over the long haul, the HUI correlates very well with the gold price, with a linear regression which is highly predictive (and residuals which seem to have their own story to tell).

Our benchmark are a mixed bag, with timid advances for GDX (+0.6%) and GDXJ (+0.8%) and declines for GOEX (-2.46%) and SIL (-1.37%). With a 1.25% advance, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner spreadsheet is the best in class. Over the week we have 13 picks advancing against 6 declining.  Yet since inclusion on the list, the proportions are exactly opposite. The blunt average long term loss stands at 14%, yet the weighed result post just above break-even.

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Happy thanksgiving

Gwyde wrote:

(Nov 30, 2015)

Over this short trading week, American stock markets are almost flat. The usual victims of Thanksgiving are turkeys and precious metals. While there can be no exception to the former, I don't really recall any Thanksgiving week with precious metals rising; perhaps it's worth a statistical study. wink

(...)

I notice the old adage is still valid. With the starting levels different, the percentage loss of the gold price is larger than it was last year. By now gold is back down to the level reached during the second week of February, that was the third week after the onset of the gold recovery. It also is the peak level of the last failed recovery attempt (in Oct 2015) which didn't make it to $1200/oz.

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What gold recovery?

Stock markets continue advancing, with the S&P and DJI setting new all time highs. The USD is firming at the same time, while long term interest rates are creeping higher. Bond markets have a hard time.

Meanwhile there 's little left of what has been the 2016 gold recovery. Gold slid below $1200 closing at $1181 on Friday at noon, a weekly loss of 2.7%. Silver closed at $16.46, with a limited weekly loss of 0.54%. PGM's continue bifurcating, with Platinum sliding over 2% to $903 and Palladium advancing 2.6% to a fresh 12 m closing high ($742).

The HUI posts a 3.48% loss making HUI/Gold weaken to 0.149. The usual update of the gold miner pulse blog page  tells you more. Among our benchmark ETF's declines vary between 1.21% for SIL to 2.1% for GDXJ. With a 1.02% decline, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner spreadsheet is best off. Over the week we have 7 picks advancing against 12 declining.  With many quotes in CAD, there is some Forex tail wind to our list performance.

Over the long haul declines still lead advances 13 to 6, while the average long term loss posts at 14.9%. The cap weighed return is almost flat (+0.18%).

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Should we be buying the dip?

This is well worth the time to watch...

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Sorry...

Wrong forum.

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Mining investors assume precious metals are bottoming out

American stock markets have retreated from the all time highs set last week, with the S&P giving back 1% over the week and Nasdaq sliding 2.65%. Only the DJIA made another tiny advance.

Gold started and ended the week advancing, but the three day slide in between turns the result red: -0.32% to $1177. Silver is better off, advancing 1.58% on balance to close at $16.72. PGM's are mixed, with platinum recovering 2.77% after the horrifying slide in November. Pt closed at $928.  Palladium continued its ascent to a $768 year high but backed off, retreating to $739, a tiny 0.4% decline for the week.

Mining investors are assuming the precious metals retreat has run its course. The HUI index advanced 4.34% to 183.4. As a result HUI/Gold firmed to 0.154 well off its November low; you find the updated graph at the Gold Miner Pulse page. Residuals relative to the HUI/Gold least squares trendline have turned positive. This indicates a bullish sentiment among mining investors.

Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet somewhat lags with a 3.11% advance. For comparison, GDX adds 3.69% and GDXJ is up 4.91%.  Over the week, we have 13 picks advancing, with 6 declining. Over the long haul, there is no change: declines still outnumber advances 13 to 6. Osisko Royalties comes close to breaking even. The long term blunt average decline stands at 12.22%, while the cap weighed advance sweetens to 4.07%.

An update was made of the long term gold miner performance list. Since Nov 2010 only 16 miners are advancing, while 11 are down over 95%!

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Brazil Resources announces a name change

The new name and symbol will occur on December 7th. And we all know that day has been known "day of infamy"!

VANCOUVER , Dec. 5, 2016 /CNW/ - Brazil Resources Inc. (the "Company" or "Brazil Resources") (TSX-V: BRI; OTCQX: BRIZF) is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved a change of its name to "TwatMining Inc.", effective December 6, 2016 , in order to better reflect its existing business. The Company also announces that it will concurrently complete a continuation (the "Continuation") under the Canada Business Corporations Act (the "CBCA").

Chairman of the Board, Amir Adnani , stated: "We are pleased to change the name of the Company to TwatMining Inc. to better reflect the type of person we wish to attract as a shareholder."

The Company's common shares are expected to commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSX-V") under the new symbol "TWAT" and on the OTCQX International market (the "OTCQX") under the new symbol "TWTLF" on December 7, 2016 .  The Company expects that on the same date its listed warrants will commence trading on the TSX-V under the new symbol "TWAT.WT" and on the OTCQX under the new symbol "TWTWF".  

About TwatMining Inc./Brazil Resources Inc.

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Inca One (IO.v), a scam pump job?

http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/12/inca-one-iov-scam-pump.html

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With the year also ends the 2016 gold recovery

American stock markets resumed their 'Trump' rally after last week's retreat, steaming up to fresh all time highs. Main indices DJI, S&P and Nasdaq Comp advance over 3% since previous Friday Dec 2. Simultaneously the greenback continues strengthening and long term Fed funds rates keep firming. These combined tendencies cannot hold for very long, yet while they do it doesn't bode well for precious metals.

Gold retreated about 1.5% over the week, mainly on account of the Friday slide to $1159.6. We have less than 10% left of the 2016 gain (gold closed at $1061 last trading day in 2015). Silver still found some support from non-ferro metals firming and holds on to a 0.6% weekly gain to $16.82, despite the Friday rout. Platinum and palladium jointly ease 1.5%, yet there is an important difference: Platinum slid very deep since peaking at $1165 early August, while palladium made a fresh 12M high only last week. With less than $200 price difference, platinum ($914/Oz) now is very cheap relative to palladium ($728).

Despite retreating precious metal prices, the HUI index doesn't collapse: over the week it weakened 3.49%, mostly on account of the Friday slide. HUI/Gold holds up at 0.152 giving way after firming till Thursday. You find the usual updates at the Gold Miner Pulse page. Residuals relative to the HUI/Gold least squares trendline remain firmly positive. This indicates there is no panic among mining investors. The HUI behaves as if gold presently were struggling to keep above $1200. 

Among our benchmark ETFs GDX and GDXJ suffer comparable losses to the HUI. The gold explorer ETF GOEX however slid 5.5% and also SIL gave back 4.25%. With a 1.76% retreat our  Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet holds up well, with special thanks to platinum explorer IVN, which also owns an important copper resource in the DRC. Of course declines (14) outnumber advances (4) last week, with PLG keeping steady. Over the long haul we still have 6 advances against 13 declines. The long term blunt average loss posts at 13.77%, while cap weighed we hold on to a tiny 2.07% gain.  Keep your fingers crossed.

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Brazil resources now Gold mining inc

I just was listening to Brent Cook's reply to Gold Mining inc( Brazil resources) and he is spot on! I have been warning about this stock for quite some time now. 

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The rate hike excuse

After the FED rate hike, the stock market rally halted. Over the week, only the DJI continued its uptrend as if pulled by the 20K magnet. S&P and Nasdaq close the week only little beneath their recent all time highs. Higher US 10Y bond rates cause a bond market sell-off. Almost all stock market crashes have been caused by prior bond market events.  The next one won't be any different, but we're not there yet. In the mean time the greenback continues strengthening: cash is king.

The rate hike excuse (however anticipated) does it again on the precious metals market: Gold slid 2.16% over the week, closing at $1134.6 after a modest Friday uptick interrupts the slide. Silver is off worse, with a 4.46% plunge to $16.07.  PGM's are mixed with a timid 1.2% gain for the heavily beaten up Platinum to $925, while Palladium slides to $695, down 4.5% for the week. By now gold is down for the sixth consecutive week. Losing streaks like this are not that frequent, even during the 2012-2015 gold bear market.

Eventually the HUI/Gold ratio gave way to 0.145, with the HUI down 6.6% to 163.3.  You find the usual updates at the Gold Miner Pulse page. Residuals relative to the HUI/Gold least squares trend line remain firmly positive. This indicates there still is no panic among mining investors. However cumbersome the miner slide may seem, mining shares still are higher than during the start of the gold recovery early February, when gold was around today's level. 

Among our Benchmark ETF's declines vary: while GDX suffers a 7.7% decline, barely off worse than the HUI, GDXJ plunged 112.64% and both SIL and GOEX are down around 9%.  With a 10.4% weekly loss, our  Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is among the squad. Not a single miner escaped the downturn this week. Moreover we've lost Mirasol and Asanko gold among long term gains. Only 4 picks still quote above their list entry levels. The long term decline now stands at 22.8% (blunt average) while cap weighed we now are down 8.6%. 

An update was made of the long term gold miner performance list. Since Nov 2010 only 13 miners are advancing, while 11 are down over 95%!  The page also includes an overview of list changes. This week, the penny stock Rubicon Minerals has been dropped from the list. Sandstorm gold is taking its place.

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Checking on how my Twat Mining investment is doing

Wow, really good to know how smart our ceo is, LOL!

http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/12/checking-in-on-twatmining-inc-twatv.html

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Yamana Gold (AUY)

http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/12/yamana-gold-yrito-auy-and-brio-gold.html

http://www.bnn.ca/video/james-hodgins-discusses-yamana-gold~1022776

Sold all my AUY and put into MAG and ASM

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Happy Xmas

Happy XMas to all.

This implies a short update. There were no hefty moves on stock markets during the week before XMas, with tiny weekly gains on the main American indices.

PM's continued sliding with gold resisting most (-0.21%). Large cap gold miners withstand the down trend, with the HUI up 2.2% for the week, making HUI/Gold firm. You find the usual updates at the Gold Miner Pulse page. Residuals relative to the HUI/Gold least squares trend line remain firmly positive. This indicates there is no panic among mining investors. However cumbersome the miner slide may seem, mining shares still are higher than during the start of the gold recovery early February, when gold was around today's level.

Weekly moves of our Benchmark ETF's go both directions, with none of them able to catch up with the HUI.

GDX leads with a 1.36% gain, while all others continue their losing streak. With a timid 0.44% gain for the week, our  Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is not too bad off. 

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What's left of the 2016 gold rally

As the final curtain on 2016 was drawn, it's time to take stock of the markets during the year.

American stock markets are up, with the DJI failing to gain 20K but booking a decent 13.4% gain over 2016 closing at 19763. Last Wednesday we were within a sigh of 20K. The S&P added 10.05% over the year to close at 2238.8 while the Nasdaq Comp added 8.43% to 5383.1.

Despite a poor last quarter, gold holds on to a 8.5% gain over 2016, closing at 1150.9. Silver does better with a 14.8% advance to $15.88. After a four year slide, PM miners now outperform the metals, with the HUI up close to 64% closing at 182.3 on Dec 30. As a result, HUI/Gold firmed to 0.158. The detailed yearly article provides more info.

It is illustrative that, despite timid advances of precious metals since before XMas, miners showed resilience with the HUI advancing 7.9% over the short trading week (moreover despite sliding towards 2017 on Friday Dec 30). Gold was up 1.65% over the week, while silver only added 1.65%. The PGM's were mixed with Pt lagging with a 1.12% advance to $901 but Palladium showing more vigor: up 2.9% to $678.

Our Benchmark ETF's were mixed, with only GDXJ outperforming the HUI index. The Global-X silver miners ETF SIL only advances by a modest 2.75%, while the gold explorer ETF GOEX slides against the trend. With a 9% advance for the week, our  Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is well off. The long term (blunt average) decline is mitigated to 15.46% while cap weighed were again breaking even.

Asanko Gold and Mirasol Resources once more turn long term declines to advances, bringing the advance/decline ratio to a less cumbersome 6 to 13. Both Osisko Royalties and Osisko Mining mitigated long term declines to single digits.

Among references, the gold and silver COMEX future contracts now are rolled over to Dec 2017.

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RE: What's left of the 2016 gold rally

A stubborn typo after editing delay (did you notice?)  So here's the paragraph again:

It is illustrative that, despite timid advances of precious metals since before XMas, miners showed resilience with the HUI advancing 7.9% over the short trading week (moreover despite sliding towards 2017 on Friday Dec 30). Gold was up 1.65% over the week, while silver only added 1.28%. The PGM's were mixed with Pt lagging with a 1.12% advance to $901 but Palladium showing more vigor: up 2.9% to $678.

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Rallying into 2017

Precious metals have been steaming ahead into 2017 ending on a soft spot on Jan 6. Gold ends the week at $1172.2, up 1.85% while silver added 3.53% to $16.44. The HUI index is up 7.58% to 196.58, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.168.

With a 8.36% advance, our  Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet is outperforming both the HUI and GDX, but other benchmark ETFs do even better. The long term (blunt average) decline is mitigated to 8.39% while cap weighed the advance extends to 9.13%:  on average small and mid-caps are better off than the few micro or nano-caps on the list.

Three picks (OSK.TO, OR.TO and BTG) climbed out of the red, improving the advance/decline balance to 9 against 10. No picks are down over the week, but Miranda Gold and Continental Gold are flatlining. Among the 7 double digit advances,  Argonaut Gold makes the most impressive weekly gain (+29%), yet the stock still is down 62% since inclusion.

Best wishes and prosperous trading

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Mixed blessings

After a soft spot on Jan  06, precious metals have been firming on balance. Last week, gold added 2% to $1196, up 3.9% YTD. Silver adds 2.25% to $16.81, up 5.9%YTD. The HUI lags gold this week, up 1.39% for the week to 199.3. After its stellar performance, some 'relative correction' is not unhealthy: Au/Hui weakens to 1.666. You find fresh graphs of HUI/Gold on the Gold Miner Pulse blog page. On the Miners Performance page, a first 2017 update reveals a decent average improvement since end 2016.

Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Mining spreadsheet leaves behing the HUI and all benchmark ETF's. With a weekly advance of 6.45% we've been well off. There are 14 advances against 4 declines, with Miranda Gold flat over the week.  Advances are led by Ivanhoe Mines IVN.TO (Turquoise Hill) with a 20% weekly gain. The long term decline is reduced to 2.48% while the cap weighed advance sweetens to 16.77% (+7.01%) thanks to advances of heavyweights Pretium Res and Osisko Gold.

Monday is Martin Luther King day, enjoy a short trading week on Wall Street.

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