Belmont 2014

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Ruffian
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Belmont 2014

Sorry but my thread titled Preakness 2014 dated May 31 should read Belmont 2014.

I am definitely not on my " A " game right now.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:01
Ruffian
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Ok saw several of the Belmont

Ok saw several of the Belmont horses work.

Ride on Curlin was huge. He just never quits. Hes not a horse that protect himself. This concerns me a bit. It hard at this juncture to tell how much such hard works and the races have taken out of him. I'm thinking he might get the mile and a half after all. He had to taken under hand because he wanted to challenge the best older horse in the country. No fear from this guy. It appears he needs to be worked hard. Yet, where does one draw the line?

Commanding curve a great work also. His derby was great off a horrid trip. He just ran outta room to overtake Chrome.

Tonalist and new comer Commissioner handled the track lovely. They have both raced on this track before. I can't emphasize what a difficult course this is for both horses and jockeys. Its kinda an optical illusion.

Because this track stretch is so long pure closesers won't fare as well as stalkers. You simply need to be within shot of the lead. Can chrome be beaten. Yes, he can.

I should add that Tonalist has a royal distance pedigree. If it's raining I would not leave him off my tickets and I certainly will have him on top on a few tickets. Only having 4 starts is a minus.

No word on social cconclusion yet. I'm just horrified how his connections are proceeding. He has the makings of a great horse. His connection have no regard for those precious forelegs. He is very large and taking care of one so large is very difficult. I've had a few myself and the word is caution.

I'm sure io forgot stuff I'll add to the info as it comes to me. This card is the best so far this year. So much to watch.

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Ok had to post this: how to

Ok had to post this: how to ruin a great rece horse.

One of mly favorite horses in years has been Social Inclusion. This horse coulda, shoulda been the triple crown winner.

I watched him work over the weekend and my fiend said to me are you seeing what I am seeing.i said uh-huh. I didn't have my own clock but now I have the official times. Which are :33/48. for 3furlongs, :45. 2/5 for 5 furlongs and Hit 3/4ths pole at an unbelievable : 1:09.4/5 th 's.

He was under hand and not being urged. These are race winning fractions not just good workout numbers.

So why didn't he win the Preakness. He lost the race before he hit the gate. He was soaked before he was loaded and was worse in the gate. In an ordinary race he would have been scratched.

He was so bad schooling in the gate on Monday that he has been ordered to return on Wednesday. I'll be surprised to him in the belmont. The Steven foster seems more likely.

I'm am simply at a loss to see a horse of this calibre ruined. Yes, bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher ruin about half the top horses in any year. But this is just plain pride with these folks. They want to promote their nationality instead of their horse.

Sad, very sad.....the Arabs sure put the politics aside in racing. Seeing as how 90 percent of them have Jewish trainers....

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Field set an post positions drawn

California chrome coninues his lucky streak by drawing PP 2. Some tracks the inside position is at a disadvantage but not at Belmont. Going a mile and half you want to save ground and not exert to much effort for position.

Ok morning lime has him at 3/5. It will be lower at post tiime. So as usual I look to see if he can be beat and if he can't how to make a crust of bread.

The sheer size of the field tells me that trainers are not intimidated by CC. Yet, this race as far as handicapping is like redoing the KY derby. In other words a lot of pedigree analysis and that shouldn't be.

Ok Ride on Curlin. Can't dismiss him. Will not leave him out of exotics but I can go fully on board because while he was keeping pace with CC he was not gaining on him and just ran out of track.

Commanding Curve was gaining on CC in the derby. But CC was not all out either.

Now for my upset horses. I have had my eye on these two for a long time. New comers Tonalist and Commissioner. Both
are distance bred and royal pedigrees. Both lightly race, probably too lightly. However both have raced at Belmont and that is
a big plus. Tonalist a late starter because he had a nasty lung infection last year has recovered. He big gorgeous but looks dont win races and he's drawn the deadly PP 11. The big concern is how much energy will he have to use to gain position.

Commissioner on the other hand is from the now retired super sire AP Indy. Who won this race and sired belmont winners
and will represent his last foals. He's got speed and endurance with his only strike being inexperience. Both Tonalist and him are moving up in class and I never ignore horses doing that. A good cheap bet would an $1 dollar exacta box. I expect both at double digit odds. Big reward for little risk.

note: that both horses will be carry 126 lbs up from 117lbs....that has to considered.

Wicked strong... Im just not sure about him. I can't leave him out but I'm not sure where to use him yet. I can't toss medal count either. He is leaving from PP1 the most winningest post in history. But the real reason is that his trainer Dale Romans doesn't usually talk up his horses and hes high on this horse. Plus he is from legendary distance runner sire Dynaformer
Same sire of Barbaro. Also I can't use that horrid KY race against him

My tosses in the race are matuzak, Matterhorn, samaarat, and general a rod...

Side note, thank goodness social Inclusion was not entered. He will be on the undercard which is the best non breeders card I've ever seen. I can only hope that horse get a real trainer before he breaks down. Hes already sour. Kid Cruz was not entered either. He was one of my other box horses in the preakness and he just didn't fire. No reason was found. So wisely they withdrew him.

If you can watch the undercard. Palace malice last years Belmont winner and the best horse in the country right now will be racing in the met mile. Also it is freaking amazing they were able to get the three best mares to go head to head in the Ogden Phipps. It's pretty big thing for a top mare to travel so far. They really beefed up the purse money for this.

Sadly there will be no wise Dan. Hes a world ranked runner 3rd but he underwent colic surgery a few weeks back. As
reigning two time horse of the year and was 2 - 2 start this year at age 7. I'm not so sure I'd bring him back. He was lucky to get into surgery quickly. Most horses aren't so close to an equine center and die from it. So I hope you saw him on derby day. Finally, I see great betting boards all day. My bets will be tailored to the tote odd. As I always advise look out for those overlays."..... Or the horse that are at higher odds than the morning line. Always keep in mind your not betting against house but against other bettors.

Oh, oh oh, very important to watch the track speed bias before making your wagers. That means if the speed horses, stalkers or closers are dominating in the first several races. The condition of the track is a very important factor in racing. Weather AND track crews play an important role. I expect it to be lightening fast because the NYRA is bending over
backwards to assist CC to win this crown.

Why I think that is for another day.

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Ruffian excited

Ruffian hit this puppy everyway you can.

Now if only commissioner was as big as Tonalist and coulda stuck his neck out.

Not sure how much but ill find out when I run my tickets thru the auto totes.

CC connections sure showed their true colors. What a bawl baby. I've watched every triple crown winner tape a 1k times. Everyone of them dominated, I mean Annilated their competition. Sorry but CC did not dominate this years crop and that was even with the top contenders being knocked out.

Hopefully, they will be smart and race him at four to increase his value. With his poor pedigree and his conformation faults. He's not like to at tracks top mares or high stud fees.

I want a worthy TC winner and I'm sorry. He just wasn't.

Maybe some time I can give a lesson on how to subtationally lessen ones tax liability at the track. Naturally that would have to be in private.

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Questions for Ruffian

I'm writing this just minutes after the Belmont Stakes, and now CC's triple crown dream is shattered.  One of his owners went on a rant and called the owners of horses who don't race all three races cowards, "it's a coward's way out".  I don't think they're cowards, but there is such a disadvantage to the horses that actually run all the races.

So my question for Ruffian is why on Earth does it take a horse three weeks to "recover" from running a race?  Horses are meant to run, after all.  Is it because of poor breeding and vaccinations?  This just doesn't make sense to me.

And what are your thoughts on the Derby horses completing all three legs, or they can't do the Preakness or Belmont unless they enter the Derby?

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Rubbish

Your going to face fresh horses in every race you run.

The problem is the cost of owning and campaigning a top race is astronomical. Thus breeders are breeding horses that mature early and are bred to go a mile or 8 furlongs. They should be happy as hell that horse outran his pedigree 12 times already. As I said earlier they should have taken the money and maintained half ownership.

The horses you see going into the sales ring look like adults not babies and believe me their were hundred of millions of horseflesh that broke down who were much more talented than CC. They weren't bawling then about giving them time to recover to race.

These are the rules and it takes a super horse, a legend to win and that is exactly how it should be. That is also why they had a 5 million bonus for racing in all 3. Imagine a belmont that would have only had 3 horses in it. All tc horses raced fresh horses. They were in the preakness too. Wasn't no whining then from them was there?

In other words it's kinda like whining about first round byes in football

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Oops

It takes three weeks. Actually ideally 4 or 5 is normal. T-breds have been breed for speed and not endurance at all. Both constitution and Tonalist had it in their pedigree anyway from a time when they did.

I'll write more later but standardbreds race every week almost and they are tough. They breed for speed too and you can see tbed mindset creeping into that sport as well.

I'll write more but I have to go right now.

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Trying to give you

A more coherent answer.

Actually time off depends on the horse. However the past 30 years or so major breeders and those million dollar yearlings who go on to stud careers are selected for speed. Sadly the fastest horses when this trend began were also some of the most delicate. Their racing careers are usually over before they ever really learn how to run.

Horses are individuals. No two are the same. You can expect certain problems and personalities out each line but the variables will exist.

Racing is so expensive that buyers or owners need to get a return quickly. Yearly, a top tired cost well over 150k to campaign and that's just basics, training, vets, rents, farriers sustaining fees.... So you can see the pressure.

Now Danza raced with 3 weeks off in the derby but note he skipped the rest. Because he came out of it poorly. When you have so much invested the real role of a trainer is to find races for horses where they can win. I'm not about to trade glory for paying the bills. There are a very limited few who can do that.

You also need to realize that horses can gallop and jog all day long, it's a different thing when they are on the muscle in races approaching speeds of 40 mph and then the added stress of those tight turns and the concussive pressure but on the soft tissue.

If you were a horse, you would be on all fours and the entire weight of your body would transferred literally from your wrist to be solely on your middle finger. It takes a lot of time to teach a horse to distribute that weight more equally from the front forelegs to the much more powerful hind quarters.

So in other words running and racing are a different game. Horse often will not eat for days they are so tired. Very common to drop a 100lbs after a race. Then once the weight is gained back you have to turn it into muscle not fat.

Many horses who could have won triples have been foaled. Yet, the pressure to get them on the track at 2 and start early at 3 ruins them. California Chrome raced the 2nd tier until the Belmont. His connections didn't care about the new fresh horses in the Preakness. I notice they didn't mention those two new ones were green with one or no wins and weight increase of 7lbs over a distance they never ran before either.

Sorry team CC but they had the genes to go the distance. CC had no excuse. There was no re reckless pace, no horses bumping, and the leader was a plodded. He has no speed.

The NYRA did everything to help CC win. Track was smoking fast, they for the first time ever allowed nasal strips or as we call them PEDs - performance enhancing devices. They did everything but run the race for him.

Now Ruffian made a killing today because from the start I just couldn't get with this horse. I can't explain why exactly. The reason Ruffian wagers is not just because I like to. But more so that I have absolute proof of my skills in evaluating talent. We all lie to ourselves. You know the I shoulda, woulda, coulda had that. The only way I can be sure is if I have a ticket in my hand. I don't always have to make a profit but I need to have the right horses on my tickets. Cuz it sure isn't gonna be cheap when I hit the sales.

Sorry this was so long and I hope it helps. Somewhat at least.....

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Trying to give you

A more coherent answer.

Actually time off depends on the horse. However the past 30 years or so major breeders and those million dollar yearlings who go on to stud careers are selected for speed. Sadly the fastest horses when this trend began were also some of the most delicate. Their racing careers are usually over before they ever really learn how to run.

Horses are individuals. No two are the same. You can expect certain problems and personalities out each line but the variables will exist.

Racing is so expensive that buyers or owners need to get a return quickly. Yearly, a top tired cost well over 150k to campaign and that's just basics, training, vets, rents, farriers sustaining fees.... So you can see the pressure.

Now Danza raced with 3 weeks off in the derby but note he skipped the rest. Because he came out of it poorly. When you have so much invested the real role of a trainer is to find races for horses where they can win. I'm not about to trade glory for paying the bills. There are a very limited few who can do that.

You also need to realize that horses can gallop and jog all day long, it's a different thing when they are on the muscle in races approaching speeds of 40 mph and then the added stress of those tight turns and the concussive pressure but on the soft tissue.

If you were a horse, you would be on all fours and the entire weight of your body would transferred literally from your wrist to be solely on your middle finger. It takes a lot of time to teach a horse to distribute that weight more equally from the front forelegs to the much more powerful hind quarters.

So in other words running and racing are a different game. Horse often will not eat for days they are so tired. Very common to drop a 100lbs after a race. Then once the weight is gained back you have to turn it into muscle not fat.

Many horses who could have won triples have been foaled. Yet, the pressure to get them on the track at 2 and start early at 3 ruins them. California Chrome raced the 2nd tier until the Belmont. His connections didn't care about the new fresh horses in the Preakness. I notice they didn't mention those two new ones were green with one or no wins and weight increase of 7lbs over a distance they never ran before either.

Sorry team CC but they had the genes to go the distance. CC had no excuse. There was no re reckless pace, no horses bumping, and the leader was a plodded. He has no speed.

The NYRA did everything to help CC win. Track was smoking fast, they for the first time ever allowed nasal strips or as we call them PEDs - performance enhancing devices. They did everything but run the race for him.

Now Ruffian made a killing today because from the start I just couldn't get with this horse. I can't explain why exactly. The reason Ruffian wagers is not just because I like to. But more so that I have absolute proof of my skills in evaluating talent. We all lie to ourselves. You know the I shoulda, woulda, coulda had that. The only way I can be sure is if I have a ticket in my hand. I don't always have to make a profit but I need to have the right horses on my tickets. Cuz it sure isn't gonna be cheap when I hit the sales.

Sorry this was so long and I hope it helps. Somewhat at least.....

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Man o War

I'd like to add that some of the most famous horses in modern racing skip the crown races completely. Man o War did because his team thought may was way to early to start young horses.

The simple fact is for some it is and some it isn't. Yet, most the big money is for younger horses. Now a days big races for older and that means 4 and up are few an far between on the dirt. That is partially why you don't see too many great older horses. The sport is lesser because of it. The days of sea biscuit, John Henry are over.

This is why I buy untrained or unruly babies and develop them into horses who are basically ready to hit the track. My best ones i get them to the people with the big bucks who can afford to fly them all over. If I had CC I'd have taken the money and said thank you very much.

And to another person who asked. Yes I do race my own but not graded stakes. They are the meat and potatoes and pay the bills in an off year

I also breed a few of my own. Especially when I have the luck to find a broodmare someone overlooked or dispersed. One of my best sucked on the dirt in the USA but hes firing in Europe on the turf where the pressures are not the same.

Ok folks I think that it for 2014. Cya in 2015 god willing.

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@ Ruffian- When it comes to horses...

The classiest act ever known was Dan Patch!

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@ Ruffian- When it comes to horses...

multiple post deleted

Ruffian
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I know him too

Standardbred. He certainly was special. But ya kinda can't leave out greyhound, Rosalind, niatross and maybe my personal favorite cam fella.

I have to be honest they all give me chills....

I had to add to this because his time on the surface he raced and the equipment used was simply remarkable. I sure wish I could have seen him race. And his time is still respectable on half and 5/8th mile tracks.

Amazing stuff".....

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I thought I was done

For the year but California Chrome connection has me so mad I can spit.

He's gone beyond being a bad sport and he someone should just pimp slap him.

Tonalists owner is new to the sport. And if Coburn really believes his horse is better then he can do what gentlemen in the sport have always done....... A match race.

A peer of mine looked up all TC winners and how many derby starters remained for all three races and it looks something like this, 2, 1, 2,,3,1,1,2,...... You get the picture.

Poor billy Gowan of ride on Curlin. His only racing horse, he was going to quit. His horse took a huge bounce and I don't hear him crying.

Racing is a sport of the highest highs and the lowest lows.

And yes Calofirnia Chrome owners now you know why there are 15 TC winners and why big sandy has taken down giants. Then again you knew that when you shipped east and now you want the rules changed.

Sorry but I'm mad as hell. But this guy was running his mouth backstretch all week that if there were only 5 starters he would shatter secretariats record.

There are just some things you don't do in racing. What you do dois put your money where your mouth is. Challenge him. Oh and that scrape his horse has. They all get those even training. That why all the tape on the legs.

He shamed the valiant effort of his horse. Yes, there will be another TC winner. Point given lost by a nose. Smarty Jones lost by pilot error. Worse he shamed those who have won and because it's so hard it's why their names are remembered and always will be.

Ok I'm done. I think, I hope lol

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