Preakness 2014

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Ruffian
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Preakness 2014

Ok post positions are selected and field is set.

California chrome will be the overwhelming favorite and as the derby winner is deservedly so.

However, IMHO he hasn't done anything to distinguish himself among the 3yr old division. The derby the 2nd slowest in history on speed favoring, lightening fast track and a bottleneck of speed horses.wide across the track made for one boring derby.

Commanding Curve who ran the best race of all is not entered. He opted out the freshen up for the Belmont.

Interesting is the decision to run the filly Rio Antionio who ran a sub par race in the Kentucky Oaks against the best 3yr old in the country. She turned in a stellar workout at churchill a few days ago. Yet, it doesn't appear to be wisest decision to put her in against the boys.

Six newcomers in a ten horse field. Im liking Social Inclusion the most of them. He had a foot bruise several weeks back but I'm kinda thinking he just didn't want to run against 20. On paper I see no reason for him to fear Chrome. The same with the Baffert horse Bayrn. I will say the horsemen don't like him at all. But they are wrong as much as the rest of us.

So once again, any wagers I make will be based on the overlays. For those not familiar, that is when a horse is going off at higher odd than the morning line or the same odds. That won't happen in this race with CC like it did in the derby.

I see him being 2-5 at post time or worse. I'm thinking CC connections are going to try to place him up front and try to wire to wire the race because he does have speed and pimlico is a track suited for this style. If he isnt pressured he has the ability to do that. For some reason, I haven't been sold on this horse. I can't always explain my gut feelings. Maybe I am a breeding snob and he is really poorly bred. Plus these guys really are dumb asses. I can't emphasize how stupid and irresponsible the trainer was to turn down 12million for 51% stake in the horse. They are lovely folks and it's a grand story but the trainer at 77 is thinking more of himself than the owners that are just working folks.

Even if CC wins this race. They are going to have to pray to the horse racing gods that his distant ancestors mr prospector and a.p.Indy show up.

Ring Weekend has been training very well and so has Kid Cruz. New comer Dynamic Impact might be a late bloomer but I think he is outclassed in here. Ride on Curlin was 7th in the derby but that race was a total toss for me and this distance suits him better I think.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:01
Ruffian
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Opps

I forgot to add that Pablo del monte has been improving and only scratched in derby because he only became eligible after the scratch Hoppertunity.

His connections declined to race him from post position 20 and I agree with that decision.

Oh I need to add that Ruffian had very good weekend and after everything I read here and zero hedge I am going to spend every cent of my profit on buying silver.

ruffian is still very confused as to which way to buy. I mean coins vs other stuff. I don't mean the paper stuff tho. The more I read the more I realize I'd lose my petticoat in 10 mins flat. So I reckon I'll do as usual and do like I grocery shop. A little this, a little that ......

Ruffian
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And finally

I have seen the field myself.

There is no value whatsoever is betting on California Chrome. So I guess the focus should be on who is most likely to beat him.

Social Inclusion is a monster. The only case I can make against him is that this is only his 4th start. If he can avoid a speed duel to get position. He has all the talent to overtake CC.

Ride on Curlin was the only horse to actually to do a workout and he looked super doing it. This is amazing after only 2 weeks rest. I realize that the non horse folks don't see the significance. So let me say that after a huge race like the derby horses will often not eat or eat very little for days, they are that tired. They drop a hundred pounds after a race to begin with and seeing curlin filled out and gliding over the surface was impressive. I need to add that his team was correct in saying his jockey gave him a horrible ride. Mike Smith is a hall of famer but it was a horrid ride and he's off him.

Everyone is making a fuss over a throat blister than California Chrome has. They claim he had it before the derby and it went away. I kinda wonder why no one knew that until now. I reckon they couldn't conceal it because he was heard coughing. Horse do get allergies and blisters and anything that effects breathing is certainly something to be concerned about. However, his connections claim otherwise.

Some are saying his feet are sore. Uh duh, every racehorse has sore feet. If they are not sore they are not racing. So I'm kinda wondering if Chromes connections are regretting not taking the 2nd offer of 12million. I'm sure they had higher ones in private after the derby as well. So this might very well be a handy excuse to keep his value high IF he fails. Not taking the offer is the equivalent of hitting the lottery and fully expecting to hit it again.

Yet, from a numbers perpective. KY derby runners who enter the Preakness do rather well. I think there are 15 that have
won in 30 years if my memory is correct. I shoulda fact checked but I didn't.

The filly looks great but she is in way over her head. I'll be surprised if she is not last. I'm not quite sure what to make of Bafferts Bayrn. He has tons of speed and Baffert is taking off his blinkers. Which is a huge change before a huge race. They are used mainly to keep a horse focused instead of looking all around. But they often hinder the horse because then he can't see who is close and most horses need prompted by other horses to do their best. Or as horsey folks say...on the muscle or on the chooch.

I usually have a A,B and C wager. Wall street calls it hedging I think. I call it cya.. Cover yo ass. So I'll have him on my C bet. And I'm going to use Kid Cruz on my B ticket because I like how he has been working. In other words I'll be wagering Chrome, Social Incusion and Ride on Curlin as the top horse to win in my exotics and will be boxing those 3 underneath as well with Kid Cruz.

This is of course if the odds present as I expect them too. This is the kinda race that what gamblers call bridge jumpers love. Meaning that they will place a 10k bet or much larger on the favorite or the chalk to show. It's thought as a safe money bet for a big return. But oh boy, if the horse doesn't fire..... Hence the term.

Naturally everyone wants to see Chrome win but believe me gamblers and horsemen don't get caught up in the emotional side when the gate opens. They wanna beat him cuz their is no value play with him winning.

Ruffian
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Corection

Sorry, I meant to say calvin borel"..... Not mike smith.

That's what I get for going over the sheets and not previewing..... Oh well, as long as it's not at the window.

Ruffian
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Recap

A big congrats to California Chrome. He got another perfect trip and just glided home.

My upset horses did ok too. I was disappointed to see Social Inclusion soaking wet before even hitting the gate. He was rank and studdy. I also was appalled to see him putting all his weight on front forelegs. He's either should be gelded or given a tightner before such a big race. His connections are nuts too turning down 8 million. I expect to see a lot of him thru the fall. He's gorgeous but if he puts on stallion weight. That's when they get huge necks and chests. His front legs and feet won't hold up for a rigorous 3yr old campaign.

Ride on Curlin ran a very good race but was outrun. His sire was a pure miler and so is he. I ready don't see him suited for the Belmont.

Bayrn who i was perplexed about the equipment change just went sour. Like the old horsemen say , horses are like strawberries they can go bad overnight.

My 4th horse Kid Cruz just smelled up the joint. He didn't fire at all. Lastly the filly is really nice. I have no idea what her owners were thinking. She is a very good horse and could have raced in the million dollar acorn a few weeks later and
avoided Untapable too. I'm sure borel was following orders to put her on the lront and try to wire the field.

So how did my tickets go. Not well at all. My A ticket did hit but I went cheap on it and it failed to cover. I know better but I
hate betting favorites because of how much you have to risk to turn a few bucks. Thankfully I hit on two other races. One of which had some value because of the place 2nd horse odds. It was a day of all the favorites or the chalk doing what they were supposed to do. So i ended up making a whopping 28.80 profit. Oh well, I needed to be at the track anyway.

Chrome went up several notches IMHO but I think he looked like he was at max cruising speed. He just makes it looks so easy because he has such a beautful stride. He has no closing ability at all so if he wins the Belmont he will have earned it.

Cya in 3 weeks

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