Kentucky Derby 2014

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Ruffian
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Kentucky Derby 2014

Oh gee, I was looking forward to this years derby more than usual

Why? Because the year started off with full of talent and the mediocrity of the past few years. Every year you lose some to injury or regression but to lose this many in so late in the year was heartbreaking for me.

My early pick was a colt named Constitution. He came up with a hairline fracture in training. Thankfully it was discovered while training and not while he was all out on the engine during a race. He will be back but likely will miss all triple crown races.

Then Cairo Prince an early favorite who had regressed but was training back into form fit for the derby- injury and he's out.

I have one other favorite who is in that Constitution had beaten earlier this year but egad he's got an engine and is all heart.

That leaves the overwhelming California Chrome. A magnificent animal by all standard and his resembles to secretariat is no coincidence since he carries his blood. He is not as sturdy built as the legend but he he's done nothing wrong and he's marvelous to watch. He already received standing ovation in his native California. He's the whole enchilada and is showing no signs of a bounce. Only detraction is he coming off poly tracks and no history of how he will respond to dirt.

He really does have potential to a crown winner if he can hold up.

Unfortunately, the rest entered so far are rather immature and quite haven't figured out to use all four legs together properly or as we say, they aren't collected yet. One other has 9 starts already and that means a very tired horse.

Why the big deal? Well what would Secretariat be without Sham ( a likely crown winner himself in any other year). I can't imagine Affirmed without an equally talented Alydar matching him stride for stride in the stretch. Niatross without Storm Damage dogging him.

Battery does have a decent one in the hunt but I hate him as a human and a trainer and I don't think his horse is the same quality.

I reckon I'm saying is that even if we get a crown winner this year. It's gonna be, as far as the derby is concerned kinda like the Pittsburgh Steelers beating the Pitt Panthers.

Oh wait I nearly forgot. There is a long long shot named Danza that beat some excellent horses but there is no way to tell if it can be repeated.

I'm still anxious to see California Chrome run. He really is graceful and just floats over the surface.

The field isn't set and there will be more entering but so far it appears ill be betting the tote board instead of the talent. Hey that kinda sounds like the markets dont it?

Oh well that's my $10 dollars.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:01
Ruffian
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Sorry for how badly written.

Sorry for how badly written. Between my lack of proper grammar and this auto correct is barely readable .

Excuses I know. I shoulda proof read it first but I wanna read the main page before I have to venture out.

Regrets
Ruffian

PS I learned this weekend you can pop a ham in the oven and do nothing but set the temp and it still tastes pretty good.

Pug Nuggets
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Ruffian

Looking forward to some more of your thoughts on the KD.  Not poorly written at all.  I love horses but not around them at all, so I love learning new-to-me terms like "collected".  Hope you continue to write your thoughts.

Pug Nuggets

P.S.  Making leftovers is even more fun than the original dinner.  Just made some awesome scalloped potatoes with ham.

Ruffian
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Thanks Nuggests! I love them

Thanks Nuggests! I love them myself obviously and I better because it is 24/7 365 day a year job.

There is absolutely nothing new to report. Other than a few unremarkable gallops this morning. The field is still not set and the big boys havent arrived yet.

It probably won't be the derby I had hoped for but it's still the holy grail of racing. Plus I am a degenerate gambler at heart and I would bet on cockroaches if it was the only game in town. And the derby is always gives a great payday for those willing to risk a few shekels. With that much amateur money in the pool. There will be overlays all over the tote board.

There are other top notch races on the card and the past several years have given us some of most gifted fillies and mares ever seen together. Rosalind vs Room Service has the potential to be one for the ages. They already dueled to dead heat a few weeks back. Girls are on Friday and the boys on Saturday.

On another note I wanted to mention that there is a film out about long shot 2009 Mine That Bird ky derby winner. It's called 50 to 1 (the odds he won at) and it's a glorious true story. I would advise anyone who loves racing or horses to boycott the film. The partial owner of the horse who is also a vet just testified to permit former racehorses to be slaughtered and deemed safe for human consumption. At a tick of 1,500 per day. Mine That Bird is a gelding and that would make him eligible to be on the menu. Congress allowed the ban on horse slaughter to expire a few months back and the industry is booming.

I wouldnt give that POS a handful of dirt let alone a dollar bill. Just sayin'.

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Oh I nearly forgot about the

Oh I nearly forgot about the ham.

Apparently my ham was already prepped and baked in advanced by a company that does nothing but cook hams. I thought it was odd it was only wrapped in foil.

I learn something new every day. Now I reckon I'm going to learn how to make those potatoes. I plan on using every single scrap of this ham. For a few bucks more I coulda bought a whole dam pig. It was a gift from a client. I'm not cheap and I appreciate the gift. But I have to wonder what the hell they were thinking.

I kinda felt a little bad eating ham anyway because when I was little kid. My dad agreed to take in what was the latest fad and fraud in the pet industry: Vietnamese pot bellied pigs. People were led to believe they remained small and cute. I loved those pigs. They were smart as hell and would start doing tricks as soon as they heard the crinkle of a cellophane wrapper.

Ruffian
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Post positions set

Ok here we go.

The clear and deserving favorite California Chrome was on the track just for a gallop. Not much to tell from a gallop but he looked fit enough. He certainly looks like a champion. Hie drew post position 5 and has major speed inside and outside of him and that is a negative.

One horse I can't be completely objective about is named wildcat red. He not special to look at. He is also probably the fastest in the field but it takes a lot more than speed to win. Both him and chrome have more races under them that I like to see in such young horses. This happens because they are not regally bred and I doubt anyone expecting them to be starters when they first hit the track. However, neither one is showing signs of a bounce. Sadly wildcat red is not taking to the Churchill surface at all. Even so, the surface he has worked out will not be the same on derby day. Also a loose horse is always a dangerous horse. He can win but hes danced 8 races with the best already. Can he do one more? I dunno.

Then my next sleeper is called Medal Count and he loves the track and it didn't escape the odds makers. He's turned in some nice works as well.

Danza with only only one giant win under him looks great too. He's gotten more attention than he deserves off his record. I really don't know what to make of him. Then of course the Baffert horses, I dislike that man so much that i don't even like to evaluate his stock. But he is Baffert and his chances are good with most leaning to Hoppertunity but I prefer Chitu his other entry.

The cool thing about this derby is that it is full of non KY bred horses and bargain purchases. It's good to keep in mind that even the big boys had their purse strings tight when these guys hit the block.

If horse sales are any indication. The one per centers are doing very well because sales records are bend shattered sale after sale.

Lastly the best horse onnthe track has been Untappable .... A filly in the oaks. Room Service did not take to the track so she was not entered.

This race is a major crap shoot. It's almost all speed. If California Chome falters it's anyone's race.

Ruffian
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Surprise surprise NOT

Oh well Baffert had to withdraw the 2nd favorite Hoppertunity. I have suspicion if he didn't have a trail of dead horses so close on his tail he would have run him. However, even his most ardent supporters cannot deny that if he has one break down in a race like this. They would be forced to take action that they should have ages ago.

He does have another starter that I actually like better named Chitu. It is kinda common knowledge that he has been battling a pretty severe fungus infection for months. I suspect his primary role was to stuff California Chrome given the chance. As I said before I dislike the guy so much its hard to be objective. Yeah he gets them to the derby. He has at least 100 million of bloodstock to ruin getting there and the survivors if lucky go to stud and the others end up as pets if lucky.

I still like my my very ordinary looking wildcat red. His work was blah but he was picking up time on a very deep track. And Candy Boy had an excellent work. He's improving and having Gary Steven on board is a huge huge plus. He's a wicked aggressive rider and he's gonna need Gary to get him in the money.

Most of the speed is up front and that gonna make an interesting race but California Chrome has several running styles and more than one gear. Still i would have liked him better staring from mid field. Champions always find a way tho. All in all these are the best and finding tosses will be darn impossible.

In other words any wagers I make will be based on the tote. Pro gamblers will tell you it's not who you bet but how you bet.
Without a doubt Chrome is the class of the race but this is the derby and there will be 18 or 19 gunning for him. I reckon I'll
be making several trips to the window right up to last minute.

Pity that the filly Untapable chose the Oaks. She is just a handful right now.

Lastly for fans, Wise Dan reigning two time horse of the year will be making his second start of the years. Shame that horse doesn't get the attention he deserves because he's a gelding. He's seven this year and that's ancient for a racehorse and hes going for a repeat in the Woodard with 9 challengers. He had a rocket workout in 47 and change.

Green Lantern
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[quote=Ruffian] Pro gamblers

[quote=Ruffian] Pro gamblers will tell you it's not who you bet but how you bet. Without a doubt Chrome is the class of the race but this is the derby and there will be 18 or 19 gunning for him. [quote]

How about a short tutorial on how to bet the race.   I'm not much of a gambler but I'd put a few bucks down to keep things interesting.

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Oh gee

I'll give it a shot.

Rules for the derby go right out the window because of tens of millions od amateur money in the pools.

First rule, never wager more than you can afford.

Second normally betting win, place show, is hard to make a profit but with so many horses even a favorite can be a bargain.

The simplest way to explain is for you to choose the horses you like and compare them to the tracks odds thats is the odds the racing secretary assigns before the race and compare them to the actual odds on the tote board. Remember your betting against other players, not the track.

So if you see a favorite that the track says is 5-1 and the tote says 10-1 that is a value play. Show betting is considered a suckers bet but not on derby day. A horse going off at 50-1 can be very profitable.

What I do is pick 2 or 3 I really think can win and then I pick several that I think can finish 2,3 and 4. First I put the favorite on top and then box three underneath. Meaning if those three are there they can come in any order. In the race like derby I might put 5 or more underneath. I'll do the same with my second wagers and often I still use the same horse on top. Some folks will bet the fav and box all the others underneath. That's not a cheap bet tho.

For the new you can play who be 1 st and 2nd and then box them. So if either wins you win. They have a triple as well where you pick 1,2 3 or a triple. These bets are know as exotics.

At then window you say I'd like 5 on top of 7,8,10. Or you would say I'd like a 5-1 box. 2horse bets are usually called exactas. These are good for casual players and in the derby they can and do pay hundreds for a 2 dollar wager.

I rate the horses myself and their chances and if the odds are much higher than the tote that's a auto play for me.

Normally I can toss half the field but this year I cant. So I'm looking for those value plays. Picking the winner isn't that important as picking 4 or so who can win.

I know this is weak but it gets very complicated and people have their own systems. Its very like playing the stock market to be honest. Also I just get feelings. Some horse have that I'm here look and other horses notice that. Also a horse that is really sweating and covered in white lather will indicate he's using too much energy pre race. Bad behavior is typical for many horses as they are anxious to get to the gate. Rearing on hind legs is bad. Kicking and head shaking is normally playing.

Then there is this thing called beginners luck. I've seen it too many times to discount it.

People write books and books on this stuff. Yet, the most successful have been those who bet the overlays and underlays. Lastly the lowers the odd the more you need to wager. Higher odd need only a single bet, even if it's just a win even for 2 bucks.

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Thank you Ruffian

I m really enjoying this thread- thank you for sharing your knowledge, this is fascinating!  Now I'm off to look up 6 or 7 words and concepts you used so I can understand!

Please feel free to keep this up, if you want-  Ill read every post.  Gracias, amigo!

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I LOVE this thread!!

CaliChrome sure looks impressive. The handride in the SA Derby was a thing of beauty. 

The place horse in that race was also under a hand ride so keep an eye on it, too.

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Thanks everyone

Yes CC is by far the class of the race.

Forget about the second horse. That was Hoppertunity and he's been scratched.

I would not be surprised to see CC stalk to 8 furlongs and just shift gears the final 2 furlongs home. He has that ability. I don't expect him to be all out unless he has to. His connection will want to save a chunk of him for the next two race ahead. he really has to avoid a speed duel and avoid getting shuffled back up against the rail.

Most likely the real race is for 2,3,4.....

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Bravo Ruffian

Love me some ponies ... growing up I went to del mar with my nana (RIP) and i have fond memories of times at the track. nothing like holding a ticket and watching your horses come in.  i will be doing some last minute research saturday AM, but cheers again for sharing your thoughts. 

Are you physically at Churchill Downs watching all week or via satellite?

Never been, but i'll get there one of these years. I am always down for a mint julep and a cigar!!! sure does look like cc and the rest. i'll prob exacta box that beautiful beast w/ my 3 favorites. How can a guy like me not give med(t)al count an across the board how you doing at 20-1 ... looking for a payday, and i promise to dump my winning lettuce into more phyZZ.

please continue to share with us, i too really appreciate your time and effort.

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Thanks

Egad, I love Del Mar. Only been there a few times because I'm an east coaster.

I go to Churchill in the mornings because I've been in KY for the Keeneland meet. I'm always on the lookout for the overlooked and bargains.

Everyone should go to the derby at least once but I'm not fond of crowds so I prefer to watch these big races off track.

Btw Wes Welkers horse aptly named Undrafted just scored a 2nd place in 5.5 furlong turf sprint. He's pretty good, Wes and his horse. Wes was worried the race was too short for his horse and he was dead on. He came flying home and came up short but boy did he turn in a huge effort. Teddy Brewskis was with Welker cheering him on.

I wanted to say one more thing about betting the derby. Just have fun with it if your not a regular player. Even my mom when she was alive was an excellent handicapper would put a few bucks on every grey horse in the field.

And a short personal story to illustrate how horses interact. One of my first was entered in an Invitational. Meaning you had to be asked to enter. I had a filly named Dauntless and she was up against boys. Opening odds were 20-1 on her. She hit the post parade and everyone galloped by and she held her heard high and walked the entire way to the gate. Here eyes taking in everyone and everything. They actually had to wait at the gate for her.

She wasnt even visible on the track cameras until the stretch. Where she came flying down the middle of the stretch to win at 75-1. That post parade walk turned off the bettors but it was her way of letting the boys know she was there.

Also I should have mentioned that California Chrome has won his races by such large margins that he has never really been challenged. It's gonna be interesting to see how he goes if one gives him a go.

Then later today is a rematch of last years Derby with Will Take Charge, Golden Soul and My Lute. 3 of the top 5 finishers from last year derby in the Alysheba. WTC has developed into a top older horse under the golden hands of D. Wayne Lucas.

I love Lucas. He's a top horseman and a class act all around. Plus he loves this sport and his horses. One of my fav comments from him is: live everyday like it's your last because one day it will be.

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Reminds me, We Miss Artie was

Reminds me, We Miss Artie was working so poorly that his trainer wanted to scratch him. But his owners insisted he run. Also worth noting Is the clockers all agree Intense Holiday worked the best over the past week or so....... Maybe too well? I dunno.

Worth noting a few are coming off a mere 3 week rest ... Like Danza..

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Thanks for the betting tips. 

Thanks for the betting tips.  I was listening to some expert today who after giving his picks and favorites said, but I wouldn't bet it.   Whatever that means.   Doesn't give me much confidence in throwing my money down at the window.

If I get brave, I'll make a bet.  Otherwise just watch with a Mint Julep.  Did you guys know that  Mint Julep must be served in a pewter glass?  I didn't.  And if you have deep pockets, you can get the top shelf Kentucky Whiskey and that Mint Julep will cost you $2000.00 buckeroo's.  Better have a nice buzz.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/mint-julep-kentucky-derby

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Oh gee that guy is nuts. This

Oh gee that guy is nuts.

This is a true gamblers betting board. California Chrome is not unbeatable. He's the best on paper but he's had no training over Churchills surface. He's never travelled and he's never had dirt in his face.

Would I toss him. Hell no. But this field is full of horses with the right trip and some luck who can beat him. Wicked Strong is a monster too and if it wasn't for his lousy 19th post position I'd benranking him a lot higher.

Lord only knows I'd like nothing more than to see a triple crown winner. But as a gambler at this stage you look for reasons not to bet the favorite,

In my opinion, you would be hard pressed to make a bad wager. Like everything its risk vs reward and there are few chances to be able to win that much for a dollar wager except the lottery. And I'll take race odds over lottery odds any day.

If nothing else it's just fun to watch"........ This just might be the year history is written

Btw Untapable just blew the track up. Keep an eye out for her to be entered in the Preakness....she is as good if not better than CC. Scary part is she looks like she is improving.

Oh and the pewter goes back to the origins of the race. The drink you are talking about is for charity. They go to outrageous places like the himalyas to get ice and use pappy van winkle bourbon that kinda stuff. A few years ago they served it in silver.

Personally, I love bourbon and I hate it out of metal and pappy van winkle is An average tasting rye bourbon IMHO.

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Jerry Bailey

Just wanted to say that if your going to listen to anyone it should be Jerry Bailey.

Top jockeys like him got where they were by picking the right horse to ride, his pre race predictions on how the race will set up are the best. Pincay is right behind him.

The rest like Battaglia are awful.

Track is lightening fast and is playing fair to favs and longs it's both.....

Don't ignore the undercard it's amazing.

Best 'o luck

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Afterthoughts

I only watched the race once and I'll be watching it 20xs more during the week but a few thoughts.

I hope y'all wagered cuz that was an amazing board with unreal payoffs with a solid favorite winning.

So how much did Ruffian loose.....0. How much did I win.....0. Of all freaking days Im up with a stomach ache and chills. I nearly fell asleep during the 1.45hr delay after the Woodford. I dont have online or call a bet account for good reasons.

Anyway my take on the race..... Im happy as hell for California Chrome. However, the race as a whole was subpar. One of the slowest in history, no pace at all. It's very rare to have that good of a track on derby day. A lighting fast track that played to speed all day with field of speed horses. Which means CC got his way again. Yet, it also means no one will afraid to challenge him again. It is worth noting that if that race was a bit longer that Wicked Strong would have blown by CC and he was coming from near dead last. Amazing effort from that guy off a snails pace.

My little guy I don't know what happened to him. He was right up there strong and then disappeared.

Early rumors have it that Social Inclusion will enter the Preakness and he's a top horse. No word on Hoppertunity yet tho. Tapiture who raced horribly is owned by the same connection of that crazy good oaks winning filly Ubtapable. Her connections said they wouldn't enter but they may reconsider. I know I would.

A win is a win but it really was a boring race. I was kinda afraid this might happen.

I really hope some of you got to see Wise Dan in the previous race. He is just in another league. Had trouble in the race at the start and end and he just would not let a much younger horse get by him. You won't see too many like him. They most likely will lighten his race schedule but he will still only take one best carrying the most weight. Even so I reckon there won't be many more chances to see this guy.

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Ruffian

Thank you so much for sharing some insight into the world of horse racing.  I only lost $32 fiat.  I boxed 4 and CC and Danza were winners, but I picked two other horses that didn't show, Metal Count and Dance with Fate.   I had to go to the casino to place the bets and wait in a long line.  I can't believe how nervous I get.

I started getting into the Triple Crown when I bet on Real Quiet way back when.  What kind of prediction do you have for CC to be a Triple Crown winner?

Nuggets

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Sorry about that. That's

Sorry about that.

That's why I tell folks to watch those overlays. If you had bet CC and boxed him with every horse in the field that would have been a $38 bet and you would have got back $170.

Anyway my little guy who was right up int race and then dropped off screen took a hard hit to his right front leg and it opened up a pretty serious gash. His reins man did the right thing and eased him back.

Yes CC can win the triple. Danza had a horrible trip. He really got knocked around in only his 4 th race ever. He should not enter the Preakness because he has had two major races in 5 weeks.

Expect him back for the Belmont and expect him to give CC a horserace.

I'd love to see him win but as I said in my original post. I want to see him earn it. He is the whole package but the crown is meant to be grueling. Like every horse before him he is going to have to face fresh and different horses.

That's hard on any horse. He is set up for a smarty jones scenario who just faltered in the home stretch at Belmont. He was over raced like CC is and could not hold off a talented and fresh horse. Smarty lost because he was a very tired horse.

Anyway, it's too soon to tell. It will depend on how he holds up and who decides to take a go at him. We know he has talent and speed but now he needs to prove the intangible....the heart.

CC is the only only horse who must go forward right now. I still believe my little guy would have given him a race. And I think the shorter distance of the Preakness his chances to upset were even better. But I hope he's not entered. This was his 9th race too. His injury is serious but not career ending. And I don't think he can go the distance in the Belmont. So I guess I'll never know.

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