Setups within the Big Trade

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Ilya Repin
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Setups within the Big Trade

10th Wonder wrote:

Please know I truly appreciate the work and efforts of every single poster on here with regards to their unique perspective and interpretation on daily market analysis as to what transpires before us and what their short-term trades/forecasts may be, but please allow me to remind every last one of us out here still seeking and drawn to the original intent of this thread..."The setup for the big trade." 

At the risk of being banned by TF on my comments here, I must admit this thread seems to have been overcome by day-trading and short-term swing trading  posts here that have superseded the original intent of argentus maximus when this thread was originated. It's lost it's original luster, amidst all the constant day-trades that are posted for little/negligible profit that very many of followers like myself out here don't care to engage in. We are only interested when the real "big trade" kicks off.

As far as I can tell, argentus' charts that point to Septemberish being the final cycle swing low (with one possibility extending to Q1 2014) is the guideline served for "the big trade." Please feel free to correct me where I am wrong in my interpretation, ignore me, etc. Just my 2 cents as this is not my thread and argentus may adamantly disagree. 

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:30
Ilya Repin
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And so here we are! Feel

And so here we are!

Feel free to post anything related to the Coming big trade. No swearing please wink

This includes any market any asset any timeframe.

Charts are encouraged.

Lets just pool ideas and see what we get!

Ilya Repin
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Samsung broken Down. likely

Samsung broken Down.

likely supportive AAPL

sitbt.png

Ilya Repin
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Caution on Zee Goled longsi

Caution on Zee Goled longs.. last time the Gold Miner broke so did GLD

i am swing long Silver however as mentioned in parent thread.. but expect sell off 21st June or so. Also with the CHF and JPY strengthening a violent upmove in Zee Goled is very possible. Wouldn't be shorting it here even with the Miner breakdown shown.

mml.png
 

Ilya Repin
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IMO the obvious IHS in SPX

IMO the obvious IHS in SPX would be bearish Gold if confirmed

spx.png

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Turkey update from parent

Turkey update from parent thread http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/320902#comment-320902

"Goldman lowers Turkey 2013 GDP forecast from 5.2% to 4.5% due to "uncertainty brought in by recent domestic political developments"

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HUGE EXPANDED OR 3-3-5 FLAT S&P

I wrote AM yesterday,

primary contracting symmetrical triangle is too neat..........

AM showed me a analog that shows a equity bottom near 6/18........... 2013 vs 1935? over 90% positive corrolation

yesterday I went short from 1648 pre mkt (emailed AM)  and covered today exactly 50% retrace of 1648-1597=1623 as per the roadmap posted, worked perfectly

Next I expect a move above 1700 to be followed by the bottom falling out to 1550ish

I believe Ilya is looking for insane volitility and this view certainly gives us that and times well with AM's analog 

I do not go long so I will wait for the "big trade" to short 1700ish

Confused as to which forum to post now?

longer term there, short term here?

I think I  will stick with the other after this post for continuity sake

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Allied Nevada (ANV) is a buy

Allied Nevada (ANV) is a buy here with a very favorable risk:reward.

Current price is $7.59.  Go long with a stop at $7.53.  Last weeks low was $7.55 and was a rising candle (higher high - higher low).  Price will not violate last weeks low without signalling a change in trend.

Risking about 1% with an upside potential of potentially much, much more.

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Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!!
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MetalPrices
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First Gold Chart

Hello. This is my first gold chart. I am a price action trader and do not follow news. This site is absolutely fascinating. Let us see what happens.

(Green - entry, Blue - profit target, Red - stop loss)

RuNuts
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Bookmark

Bookmark

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Well - that trade fizzled

Well - that trade fizzled quickly.

A lower price on the weekly suggests further downside in the coming days/weeks. Standing aside waiting for another good entry setup.

Strawboss wrote:

Allied Nevada (ANV) is a buy here with a very favorable risk:reward.

Current price is $7.59.  Go long with a stop at $7.53.  Last weeks low was $7.55 and was a rising candle (higher high - higher low).  Price will not violate last weeks low without signalling a change in trend.

Risking about 1% with an upside potential of potentially much, much more.

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Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!!
Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.

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@strawboss

I picked up on ANV from a post of yours in PTC last week and have started tracking it.   

edit: I didn't see your update. . . Thanks!  Keep us posted on this set up.

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@ Strawboss ...

Re: ANV, have traded this company from time to time as they have been on my core target list for a while tied to good asset, stable jurisdiction, competent mgmt team and attractive valuation especially on a booked reserves basis ... however fwiw, the Baupost Group/Klarman (whom I respect) disclosed  F1Q13 they sold their long held holding which raises a red flag but I haven't taken the time (yet) to sort out why they sold.

disc: no current position

Ilya Repin
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GS "Island top"

GS.png

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A few thoughts on Silver and a hint at what may be to come.

2015x.png

I spend many hours researching Silvers price and time Cycles. over many months I have completed much extensive research on this topic including macro strategies for Buy and hold type investors as well as swing traders. 

This is a very watered down version of some of the information to be produced in the upcoming newsletter by Argentus and Myself.

Many other markets will be covered and global issues addressed.

I myself believe the market at large is functioning properly for philosophical reasons for this, supported by chart based evidence. I will therefore be approaching my work from that angle.  I would like to share such views with all here as i feel its important that all respect the market for what it is, and what it has always been. For those that wish to survive any coming strife, be it financial or otherwise, will have to respect the events of history that are left for us in the Charts so that we can see what may be ahead. the charts are all knowing and empowering.. The charts are never wrong only you and i, the reader.

I know many here feel that the "manipulation" of the markets is "wrong" and while i can entertain those views.. I find it more inspiring and educational to understand "why and how if at all" this may be.

To quip,

The arrogance of man will certainly claim ownership over events that are much bigger than he. And those that look up to such men are looked down upon by me.

Ilya Repin
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Potentialy a good short setting up here IMAX

IMAX.png

and some timely "news" to fit the tech picture

Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predict ‘massive implosion’ in film industry

http://www.theverge.com/2013/6/13/4425486/steven-spielberg-george-lucas-usc-film-industry-massive-implosion

The way i see it is if you expect SPX to drop off and would like to short it.. then this is where the shorts are to be made most profitably. Zero defensive aspect to stocks like this and will drop 2:1 to SPX

People are getting poorer are they really going to be spending all their money on films?

Conclusion :  ON WATCH

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Update on Miners

Well after yesterdays little move in HUI that people brought up i spent today looking for some bullish sign in the miners. Result.. nothing conclusive.. in fact to be fair.. pretty bearish for a little while yet..

Here is DUST ultra leveraged Bear Miners ETF

DUST.png

If i was to enter into permabull mode i could say that today was very high volume failed to break resistance and closed under 20/50 SMA

But really whats seems to have happened is that we are forming a topping pattern that is not quite complete.. Support has held and today was a very high volume up day. Daily MACD about to cross positive from oversold.

If i were to hazard a guess on this we complete a 3rd high this on DUST next week and then maybe the top (bottom) is in... then we continue with some MACD/price divergence in favor of a bull move in the miners sometime in the not too distant future.

 

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A suggestion

Ilya, this post resonated deeply - thank you.

May I ask, is your analysis purely TA or does it include fundamentals?  If it does....

I sit one side of the inflation/deflation fundamental scenario and find it hard to accept the other.  Given our unique failings, the best we should expect is to be wrong either 49, 50 or 51% of the time.  The wisdom of crowds is well documented however this forum, by its focus, cannot result in an objective collective view.  As such I have a near impossible/unworkable request/suggestion.

That either here, or for your newsletter with AM, that an opposing voice be sought.  An opposing voice that produces work of a similar calibre but due to their fundamental interpretations arrive at an opposing view.  This need not be a PM hater but someone who sits the other side of your fundamental outlook.
Each scenarios would play out, one side strengthening or review their argument/outlook.

And boy, would it be interesting if both sides agreed on something!

Felix.

indosil
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Free Charting Software

Can anybody give info on a real good Free Charting S/W apart from Netdania??

argentus maximus
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indosil wrote:Can anybody

@Felix: The cyclic approach uses TA tools but is not "normal TA" nor is it "fundamental" either, but rather it's something different located in a category somewhere in-between the two. Almost every "fundamental" is either cyclical, or the information about it passes through a cyclical filter before entering the public domain. Think about company A, which has a sales increase beginning on a certain day, a random fundamental change. This does not show until .... next quarter report ... now it's cyclical.

On the macro fundamentals Byzantium makes some really good supply-demand posts, and Lamenting Laverne is doing the same with monetary supply-demand CB actions. I also suggest SRSrocco's posts. The COT reports bridge the fundamental-TA gap in a different way than cycles, and we also have really good sources here on this from several helpful members. It's all good stuff.

@Indosil: I made some suggestions in the "setup" thread.

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This analysis - global markets

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@Argentus

Thanks a lot.yes

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