Conversations overheard at the gold trading room watercooler

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argentus maximus
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Conversations overheard at the gold trading room watercooler

The thing about gold, is that since it is a free currency, gold is mixed inextricably up with all kinds of international politics, military adventures, drugs, and banking intrigue.

So It seems to me that we need an all encompassing gold forum thread which can contain all the "other" gold trading conversations, that don't fit so well in eg, the setup big trade thread, or don't seem to require their own separate thread either.

So here it is. A thread for the wide ranging snippets of information and gossip you might hear if you hang out beside the watercooler unit, at the back of the gold trading room.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:30

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Gold links that are somewhat off the mainstream - but useful

This thread is fresh, so this might be a nice post to have "at the top".

Who is "Another", and who is "FOA"? (Never mind FOFOA!)

Newcomers to gold tend to find themselves out of their depth with some of the subjects that come up, and are familiar to the older hands.

The idea of "Freegold" whether you accept it fully, partially, or not, of dual valuations for gold depending on quality required and delivery necessity, price suppression, and so on, are a big gap to jump, and are not all that well documented for the new prospective gold trader.

May I suggest a look at these links which are guaranteed to provide many hours of interesting reading and fresh ideas to those who have not seen them already.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailone.html

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AM are you a believer of

AM are you a believer of freegold and if so what are your thoughts on when it could happen?

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I accept a lot of the arguments, but prefer to simplify

EDIT: typo & syntax correction

Long post warning smiley.

I accept a lot of the arguments, but not the full degree and wide completeness of Another. I simplified it to suit my needs.

For instance I do not think that gold is the only hard asset which will be monetized in the end of the current system.

Energy is centralized, and if locally produced can be taxed so as to make it virtually so (See Greece's proposed solar panel tax). The oil-for-gold barter essentially makes oil a government (or corporate) controlled hard currency.

It is easy to overlook that during history, at various times, confiscated land has been used as currency to pay for support.

I read much, but not all of the Another, FOA, FOFOA information, and admit that I did not study all equally, but instead I engaged in a process of reduction to essential concepts which are likely, and unessential concepts which will happen .... later, or never, or partially only and after a long time.

I based much of my derivative, on the operation of the Roman, Viking, French and British Empires and US Corporatist-Colonialism and their various (and very similar) tricks to grow, conquer,  maintain control, and achieve longevity - by  conquering new periphery zones, asset stripping these  and funneling wealth towards the centre.  Slavery, and debt responsibility are shifted from the centre out towards the periphery in a pulsing process along the inflationary FOA thesis.

Compared to the complete FOA thesis, mine is a simplified cartoon, but for me it is vastly more workable because it already is visibly working in the here and now in it's entirety, whereas some of the FOA model is still to unfold in the future.

Here is how I put it in a post a while ago:

argentus maximus wrote:

However the debtors can learn to game the system against the wishes of the usual winner class. The debtors who do this then borrow and buy assets, houses, etc, and by borrowing, they go short the currency. In this way their repayments of the loans are made using devalued future currency, just like the government. The powers that be, will react, because nobody else should be allowed to have it as easy as they do. They react by stopping the QE without warning, except to inner members, causing deflation, and making the debtor class at the outside of the inflation ring go bust. Then they repossess the assets, re-inflate, and lend to provide capital to sell at increasing prices to other new debtors to buy the assets and start it up again.

So the success of the system for making an easy life for TPTB depends on a few key "pressure points".

1 The newly inflated QE funds are distributed to the manager class (.gov) and crony class (.gov + .plc) nearest the centre of the inflation ring.

2 The loss in value of the deflated money must be endured elsewhere, therefore the savings and assets of the inner rings must not include currency, but assets, and the outer rings must be trained to save in currency which will devalue, to provide more value at the centre.

3 The QE must be used by the centre inflation ring inhabitants to purchase assets from the outer ring inhabitants while the outer ring is suffering from the last deflation (cutting off of QE) and before the benefits of the new QE spills out from it's crony recipients at the centre rings.

4 The system works best if migration is limited. This is by increasing inertia on people moving country, region. Increasing restrictive foreign exchange control rules. Thus when stress occurs alternative options are denied the outer inhabitants who are getting screwed. This is done by creating dual standards, like eg certain hard assets can justify security for more leverage, and different assets (like eg devaluing savings in currency) can not justify as security for leverage.

5 The escapees of the wealth-poverty-inflation ring trap must be dealt with by extreme means to provide an example to prevent motivation of other would be escapees of the system. Vilification of outer ring wannabees as "hoarders" by the very people who ARE hoarders is very common. This occurred most notably during the Hunt Bros silver play during the 1970s. Rules and laws were passed, and even interest rates were alters by the government to oppress silver longs, as opponents of the system. All the time the insider market members were heavily and secretly naked short, unable to deliver, calling for and depending on those legislative changes to break down the attack on their way of oppression and wealth confiscation. Some old money controlled the media and used this potent weapon to agitate the public and political powers to break the Hunts.

6 Taxation provide a backup safety valve which can be alters at short notice to fool the people. Incentives are created at one stage, but then reduced or withdrawn at another. A simple examination of the facts will show that when it is cyclically beneficial to purchase property, real estate, and so on, the grants, and incentives are not there. Lending restrictions and large deposits are required.

7 However during the period of distribution of assets from the inner ring to the outer ring, there are sucker deals, incentives, and propaganda emanating from the highest levels up to and including POTUS to aid and help the assets to be sold to the debtor-borrowers just before credit is shut down, wage rises cancelled, and the rug is pulled once again from under the unfortunate middle to working classes. There fore the control of the media is vital to restrict information to that which promotes the game. And this is of course the reason for the many and increasing internet and social media controls being pushed by the inner inflation ring inhabitants.

In other words the classic accumulation, manipulation up, distribution, and manipulation-crash-down stages of the stock market have been adopted by the economy organizers, the .gov and .plc inner inflation ring classes as a business model for running whole countries.

This is just one way I like to imagine this structure.

And Nick Elway made this interesting reply to that post:

Nick Elway wrote:

Thanks for the Inflation rings perspective.

Since 2008 the banks and the FED(buying MBS) hold title to more and more productive assets, after gaining title through default they are slow to sell their inventory. Trying to buy a foreclosure from a bank is very difficult, it is like they would rather keep the property knowing the taxpayers will keep their bank operating. In effect the banks get to use bail-out printed money (and relaxed mark-to-model accounting) to own real estate and other assets. They now own real things that people in the outer inflation ring thought they owned until they lost their job and couldn't make payments.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/reply/4460/281140

Investing is easy for those at the inflation/deflation spigot. I don't trust this source but I believe this story is mostly true:

http://www.iamthewitness.com/books/Andrew.Carrington.Hitchcock/Synagogue.of.Satan/1920-1935.htm,/p>

Quote:

1929

In April, Rothschild, Paul Warburg sends out a secret warning to his friends that a collapse and nationwide depression has been planned for later this year. It is certainly no coincidence that the biographies of all the Wall Street giants of that era: John D. Rockefeller; J. P. Morgan Jr.; Joseph Kennedy; Bernard Baruch; et al, all marvel at the fact these people got out of the stock-market completely, just before the crash and put their assets into cash or gold.

So, as all the bankers and their friends already knew, in August the Federal Reserve began to tighten the money supply. Then on October 24th the big New York bankers called in their 24 hour broker call loans. This meant that both the stockbrokers and their customers had to dump their stocks on the stock-market to cover their loans, irrespective of what price they had to sell them for.

As a result of this the stock-market crashed, a day that would go down in history as, “Black Thursday.” In his book, “The Great Crash 1929,” John Kenneth Gailbraith makes the following shocking statement,

“At the height of the selling frenzy Bernard Baruch brought Winston Churchill into the visitors gallery of the New York Stock Exchange to witness the panic and impress him with his power over the wild events on the floor.”

Now to all of that I would add these  points:

*  I got the original idea from Another, FOA, FOFOA and reduced and adapted certain concepts to my own way of thinking. I do not intend to take or detract from their very complete thesis. Apologies for butchering a complete thesis, but I need to get it applied to the present, and for a shorter timeframe.

*  The process of margin alteration without warning within the exchanges is a very visible modern day version of the empire wide inflation ring Central Bank switch from leverage-inflation without warning to deleverage-deflation to catch us outsiders, bankrupt us, and confiscate OUR assets. It matches the historical account quoted by Nick Elway in the present.

*  There are in my opinion, other hard assets which can be controlled by power, and monetized just like gold. Energy production is an example. The model is large centralized government controlled production. Note the Greece proposed solar panel tax which begins a move against decentralised local energy production. Historically, newly confiscated land and other assets have been used by rulers to pay for power supporters when gold was in short supply. TPTB are inventive. Gold is the independent extra national currency, but oil works pretty well some those who control it. There are many arguments about these by FOA and Another, et al, but practically I avoid the details and look at the brutal application of power, via death and imprisonment as a potent alternative to intelligentsia reasoning. Basically there are those who kill with impunity, and those who can't, and I try to remember that, and that their laws and rules change without warning when they think it matters.

How is it working now?

Look for example at the CRB index or any commodity index  in 2011-2013. It's in a sideways triangle for 2 years, Why? Because the Central Banks are untrustworthy and the commodity market is holding it's place, waiting to see a moment when they have no choice but to do a certain thing, no matter what lies they say. But they WILL give prior notice to the insiders first, and TPTB insiders WILL try to misdirect the market participants who compete against them.

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Thanks AM

for starting another fresh thread. Laying down a marker so I can follow along in my history. If I "herd" up any rumors around the field I travel I will retrieve them.

Murph the border collie

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I thank FOFOA, but the FOFOA thesis has a silver hole

Quote:
I got the original idea from Another, FOA, FOFOA and reduced and adapted certain concepts to my own way of thinking. I do not intend to take or detract from their very complete thesis.

 

FOFOA persuaded me of many things, especially that the inflationary scenario was much more plausible than the deflationary one.  Also convinced me that governments can be counted on to drive to fiat and debasement and legal tender laws  again and again after each fiat failure.    In contrast to the tight reasoning in most of their work, FOFOA and his sidekicks' arguments  against silver are transparent and shallow.  It is almost like their employers directed them to make some anti-silver arguments and their heart wasn't in it.  Their anti-silver screed is so silly it reminds me of Glenn Beck's attacks on Ron Paul with a "Barbary Pirates" straw man.

Take MF's May 3, 2013 - 5:26am post

Quote:
It has been said that silver is the money of the poor, and gold the money of the rich.

  Where the real popular quote is

Quote:
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves,”Norm Franz in Money and Wealth in the New Millennium (2001)

Notice "It has been said" construct from high school.

AM said above

Quote:
I do not think that gold is the only hard asset which will be monetized in the end of the current system.

  I agree, and TPTB  made gold illegal before(thus  twas restricted to governments, bankers, and the black market)  That is a main argument for me to diversify with platinum, silver, nickels, lead, and anything else (ABCD) that is likely to maintain value and be useful in trade.    Your AM "rings of inflation" still 'ring' true to me.

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@Argentus

so you won't be posting anymore on the Old Thread??

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indosil wrote: so you won't

indosil wrote:

so you won't be posting anymore on the Old Thread??

Of course I will continue with "setup for the big trade", have no worries there!

But because the setup thread is a trading blog, that gives it a certain limitation.

A limited number of posters post there. It does not encourage everybody to post by it's author's-thinking-out-loud style. So naturally people do not want to divert that thread off it's topic which is following the efforts of a limited number of gold analysts and traders as they attempt to track the market to the best of their abilities.

So this thread is one where I might post, or not, or anyone else ... I did to get it going .... but it is here for all to contribute .... a bit like Main St ... but aimed primarily at gold related conversations. 

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@Argentus

Thanksyes

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Nick

Honestly, keep your silver, I do not care.

You alone are responsible for your choices, as I am for mine.

Oh and thanks for the exact quote which I was paraphrasing.

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What do Wikileaks and Gold have in common?

I was listening to this Stefan Molyneux podcast from back in Dec 2012, and it struck me either Julian Assange or Wikileaks (take your pick) and the gold price are treated pretty much the same.

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So interesting conversation

So interesting conversation over at Kitco.  Say gold peaks - hits $15K year 2017 or so - financial world goes to hell and a new system has to be started - what to do with your gold.

It was suggested to sell it and buy real estate which could very potentially be in a low at that point.

I don't know if there is an answer as everything is manipulated and controlled at certain points over certain time frames.

What happens after the big trade ?

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Although trading gold for

Although trading gold for another tangible should be the goal, it's kind of hard to predict in advance what the trade will actually be until we get there. Assuming the tentacles get peeled off of metals, there is no guarantee what will happen in other markets and assets.

I still rather doubt that a system reset is likely in the US. Such an event would require more violence and resolve than our society and political structure possesses.  However, what we are willing to do for ourselves is likely to differ from what others would do unto us.

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I had made various

I had made various approximations to the USA government debt, but lately it looks more and more that is has to spike and  crash ( if) = rapidly reduce - by/at the end of 2013..

One option how it can happen is cancellation of FED owned USG debt, which would cause at least 2-3 trillion contraction in debt. But at first there has to be escalation of debt - rapid increase of USG expenditure. A war?

Another-debt forgiveness by someone ? Any other options how that might happen?

USA economy making sudden huge expansion? Because of what? Supplying warring nations with about 3 trillion/year and getting paid- that would help to boost output. But is it likely to happen? Who will go to war of that scale at the end of 2013? It is nothing minor, few trillions per year. Only Japan, USA or EU could afford it at all.

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Informative links from Main St reproduced here for later use

Many thanks to the original posters for this, and I hope they won't mind requoting their posts.

Blackhook wrote:

Karen Hudes - Whistle Blower.

Blackshook wrote:
Karen Hudes - Additional by
4 hours 22 min ago

Very long winded and with music breaks BUT worth persevering  - some amazing revelations on her case ( eg see from 40 mins approx) !

http://nwopodcast.com/fetz/media/jim%20fetzer%20real%20deal-hudes%20novitsky.mp3

http://nwopodcast.com/fetz/media/

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Constantin Gurdgiev's Blog ... reliable EU Econometrics

Constantin Gurdgiev is well known around this side of the EU for impartial and well thought out economic analysis.

People at a greater distance who want an insight into the status of the EU will find his posts interesting, and worth paying attention to imo.

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/

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Fillmore's 23rd psalm

1936 Charles Fillmore (1854 – 1948), known for his contributions to metaphysical interpretations of Biblical scripture, brashly adapted the Twenty-Third Psalm.

The Lord is my banker; my credit is good.

He maketh me realize the consciousness of omnipresent abundance;

He giveth me the key to His strongbox.

He restoreth my faith in His riches;

He guideth me in the paths of prosperity for His name's sake.

Yea, though I walk in the very shadow of debt,

I shall fear no evil, for Thou art with me;

Thy silver and Thy gold, they secure me.

Thou preparest a way for me in the presence of the collector;

Thou fillest my wallet with plenty; my measure runneth over.

Surely goodness and plenty will follow me

all the days of my life.

And I shall do business in the name of the Lord forever.

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Currency War or Treaty?

An interesting line of thought IMO... found on another forum.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=7504.msg51096#msg51096

What "Jason" and many others seem to ignore in their analysis, and goes a long way in explaining why their lofty expectations have not panned out... yet, and satisfied their frustrated followers:

Is the fact that currently, as fast as money is being created, it is being destroyed, even faster. As much as the Powers are "printing", they are lagging. Because creation hits unevenly, helping those first in line (finance) , but also hitting hard the neccessities of the lower rung, (food, fuel) which makes for political unrest. So they have needed to excersize care in their up-ramping.

As long as this continues to happen, bullion and especially the object of "Jason's" obsession, silver, will not advance in price. Despite Jason's "Cheer Leading"
As long as this continues to happen, the number of jobs created will not keep pace with the number of jobs lost. Wealth creation will continue to be isolated and spotty, (some isolated sectors) , in general overcome in total by wealth destroyed.  Until industry reverses and wealth increases, this trend will be in effect. The problem is : trends are difficult to reverse.  Recall: "A body in motion tends to..."

So there are some reference points to watch.  The "Doctors" of the economies of the world are deperately trying to revive the patient with ever increasing amounts of heroin, but its effects are not working. Each QE's positive effect is weaker than the last.
Declining marginal effect etc

Business sector deflation and destruction of capital, or Winter Business Cycle, or Kondratieff Winter, whatever you want to call it, is still in full bloom.

What to watch out for next:  the effects of boosting actually taking hold and actually working.  Then you will know another inflationary cycle is starting, which is their goal.  "Inflate or Die". The economy of the world is built on growth, and anti-growth is not staus quo, it is death.
They will try and jump-start the weakest patient first: Japan.  To be followed by the European Nations, then finally the US.   Bullion price will go higher in the first currencies targeted: Japan first, US last.  The US will see their currency stronger than bullion, to begin, ie price even at best, or declining, in US dollar terms.

Twenty-five percent unemployment is a disaster.
But so is no growth.  the Powers will take growth over employment. That is what they are doing with pumping the Equities.
They dont care if all jobs are lost, in the short run, as long as Equities advance and companies show growth in profits.  

Its a recipe for disaster. It will result in continued destruction of the savings and purchasong power of the middle class. And social unrest.

Small niche areas will continue to see in-pouring of capital from those deperately seeking to save their purchasing power.  Chinese coins thankfully may be one such area.  Other areas too
will have small pockets of wealth bidding up prices.

You heard it here first:  it is NOT "Currency Wars".  No, the entire leadership of the world realizes the major economies of the world all need to be jump-started in sequence, ALL of them. Not one major country can be allowed to falter and fail completely.

Make no mistake in listening to the pundits- this is being engineered- it is not "Currency Wars"- it is "Currency Treaty" (Secret Deperate hopefull Revival through planned Sequencial Devaluation).
 

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@RuNuts. It's a well thought

@RuNuts. It's a well thought out piece .

The relay race to pump & devalue instead of the competitive race.

It fits what is happening.

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I am trying to create

I am trying to create commodity charts for Euro-zone and BRIICS-zone.

It looks like I might have to make a BRIICS currency index, and cross it (and EUR) against the CRB or CCI. That would a pain, but if I have to do it fair enough.

Does anyone have a better suggestion for getting non dollar denominated commodity index data? Is there a useful index I'm not aware of?

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Another Viewpoint

http://seekingalpha.com/author/joseph-stuber/instablog

The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is

This fellow and the comments he gives and gets seem to be very 'on point' for what is transpiring. AG - thank you for all you do and all related to these AG threads

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