Turdites predictive powers... guessing the next NFP

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2x2's picture
Joined: 09/12/2011
Hat Tips: 296
Posts: 70
Turdites predictive powers... guessing the next NFP

Let’s measure our collective wisdom! In my day job, I work with predictive models (and yes, I have spent much time trying to find a model to predict prices... and no, I haven’t cracked the code yet!) and one method is to just smooth out a large number of different estimates.

I thought it would be interesting to get together some numbers that had been put forward in hat contests to see the relationship between those guesses and actual outcomes. Problem is that we aimed to not double up price guesses. Ideally, multiple guesses at the same price would be ok.

I am really curious to see if we can collectively get close to a number ahead of time, and why not try next NFP? 

We can just measure against the initial report, not any revisions. Here is some background of initial numbers:

Jan 2012: 200,000

Feb 2012: 227,000

March 2012: 120,000

Jan 2013: 157,000

Feb 2013 : 256,000

March 2013 -----   What do you guess the next non-farm payroll number will be?

It might be best if you drop me a PM with your guess – that way no one will influence anyone else and this would be the better way to gather estimates.  

I’ll put it all together and we’ll see how we go!

cheers everyone!

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:01
dropout's picture
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 4840
Posts: 627
The NFP Guess???

Thats what it is from the BLS, a guess. Pure and simple.

No basis in fact. Just pure conjecture. Always at such a level so as to influence the sheeple and calm them with outrageous optimism! How about taking a guess at what the Baltic Dry Index will be at end month? At least this index is in real time and is not "adjusted" by any governmental interference.   

Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture
Joined: 06/08/2012
Hat Tips: 55871
Posts: 7846
The number is all about perception.

I agree with OutLookingIn, it is a completely contrived figure.

But I will play  the game.

Here's how it goes, since the existing number of 256,000 was designed to make things look like we are in a recovery, and   “massive government spending cuts” are supposed to be felt by every American by April, 

( Obama said so), I predict that the next one will be a lowball number, so I wouldn't pick 100,000 out of the hat,

because our fearless leaders wanted to create the illusion that government cutbacks are a bad thing.

It  is also a possibility that the number might reflect reality. If  so, it will be lower.


"When the student is ready,
the teacher will appear."

¤'s picture
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 92321
Posts: 18245
NFP Guesstimation

I agree, it's a skewed number that is always subject to revision and at times some states (CA., Mich. etc) don't always have their stats available on time. 

I like your concept of averaging guesses that your trying to achieve to show what the site is thinking. Nice job starting a new thread btw. :-)

I'll guess 210,000 for no good reason except for the fact it's over 200K and sounds bigger then something under 200K and it would indicate a positive trend to point to by the WH.


An epic lack of foresight, accuracy and humility over 3 1/2 years ago. Once a pumper, always a pumper!

2x2's picture
Joined: 09/12/2011
Hat Tips: 296
Posts: 70
OK let's run a simultaneous trial... Baltic Dry

OutLookingIn's comment was a good one.

The relationship b/w NFP and reality is a little tenuous, still it will be interesting to see how our estimate looks in comparison to the estimates of banks and the media, and to the actual release.

If we do the Baltic Dry we can get a measure of how close we guess more reliable data. It would be notable if we get close on one, and way off on the other.

So... if you can, PM me with March NFP and/or end-February Baltic Dry Index


ps. DPH.. I thought I'd put this in the forums, just to leave room on Main St for comments about the new Pope.  (just joking everybody!)

2x2's picture
Joined: 09/12/2011
Hat Tips: 296
Posts: 70
maybe next time!

Might put this one on the back-burner, hey? Only a couple (literally, 2) responses (thanks, you know who you are) and frankly after the past days price action I'm too buggered right now to do anything other than mope!

But let's try later. I'll post again on this topic!

chins up everyone!

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