Could the RNC 2012 Convention be headed for an epic Fail?

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Strongsidejedi
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Could the RNC 2012 Convention be headed for an epic Fail?

The Republican National Convention is scheduled for Tampa, Florida starting on August 27.

The current hurricane wind tracking map shows a possible Cat 1 hurricane on Monday hitting the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

At this point in time, the storm is south of Cuba and might be headed easternly.  However, the tracking maps generally show hurricane tracks to the north over or near Cuba and into the Florida Keys.

Florida is starting preparation for Isaac's landfall in 4-5 days.

The question is the strengthening of the storm and the organization of the storm.  The storm has not been well organized today and max winds are at 45 mph.  Hurricane winds are 75 mph or higher.  However, I would point out that the existing track puts the hurricane over warm water with feeder arms that will pick up moisture over the next 48 hours. 

For the sake of the people in the Keys and Tampa/StPete, I'm certainly praying for the best.  The storm does not look particularly organized right now.

But, this track pattern is starting to make me remember Cat 4 and Cat 5 level 'canes that have hit the gulf coast in the past.  These hurricanes got organized in this same region of the Carribean and then tracked into the gulf.

Having a storm track into the northern side of Tampa Bay would sweep substantial amounts of storm surge into the RNC convention.  Anyone remember Hurricane Charley in August of 2004?

 

There are already some people talking about who pulls the plug on the convention but the RNC chair is saying that it's all going forward.  I'm sure he is saying that.  He is probably the guy who's going to lose out big by having Isaac crash his party.

http://www2.tbo.com/news/republican-national-convention/2012/aug/23/rnc-q-evacuation-local-decision-ar-471911/

http://www2.tbo.com/news/2012/aug/23/rnc-q-contingency-plans-place-storm-ar-471910/

"Mayor Bob Buckhorn has authority to evacuate the convention's waterfront location, Gov. Rick Scott has the final say on whether the convention goes forward, according to state officials. His office is working closely with Buckhorn and Republican National Convention planners to decide how, when and whether to pull the plug on the convention should Isaac hit the Tampa area next week. "There's lots of options," said Bryan Koon, the state's emergency management director. "The best worst-case scenario would be a Category 1 storm that moves quickly."

Obviously, the worse case scenario would be a hurricane that stays off the Florida gulf coast slowly gathering strength from Sunday night to Tuesday morning and then sweeps north easternly into the northern part of Tampa Bay.  If the eye of the hurricane passes directly over the Bay and the northeastern eye wall was to bullseye on the convention site, the RNC would be flooded and literally blown away.

NOAA will not have effective 72 hour ground track predictions until Saturday night and Sunday morning for that time span.  The farther out you are in the timeline, the harder it is to predict.

However, I would like to point out to my gulf coast readers that a low pressure system just passed over Northern California.  That low pressure system is going to interact with a high pressure system that is over the four corners now.  Depending upon how that high pressure system moves, it could push the low pressure hurricane to the east.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:01
Strongsidejedi
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Here's more info on Hurricanes and Tampa Bay, Florida

You have to recognize the sheer brilliance of the GOP insiders who planned this convention.

A simple web search for Tampa and Hurricane at Google gets you this page:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/tampa.htm

According to this page:
Longest gap between storms
9 years 1950-1960

How often Tampa gets affected?
brushed or hit every 2.06 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits.(usually within 40 to 80 subjective miles )
(11h)once every 12.73 years

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on advisories sustained winds, not gusts)
105mph

Statistically when Tampa should be affected next
2 years overdue

Last affected by
June 2nd,2007 a weakening Tropical Storm Barry moves in from the SW with 35 to 40mph winds.
 

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If they pull it off, they'll

If they pull it off, they'll manage to have no protesters on TV. 

If they blow it, I have no idea what the consequences could be.   The cost to reschedule and relocate at the last minute would be enormous.   People could end up hungry, dehydrated, sick, or dead. 

They must be preparing Plan B, but this is just awful timing. 

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No drama, just stupidity and an utter lack of insight

No protestors?

Heck, the protestors are too naive to understand what the platform is really saying.

Then, there's the delegates who are educated enough to understand the platform, but also do not understand that the platform is a mirage.

The GOP convention is a joke.  It's not even a vote and it's not a "convention" to pick anything.

It's just four days of political propaganda filling news stations with drivel.

Will anyone in Tampa be talking about the deficit that was created under Bush 43?

Bush 43 is not even going to be attending.

That says loads too, especially given that Jeb is from Florida.

Want to go more ?   Bring it.

The pick of FLorida is FaiL.

Typical of a political organization that has permitted liberalism to infiltrate and utterly destroy the conservative base.

Tea Party?  Nope... more like Tea Cups now.

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NOAA update Friday August 24, 2012

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New update from National Hurricane Center

Notice that the northern trajectory is starting to appear.

The interaction of the high pressure system over the middle states is moving easternly.

As the high pressure moves east over Texas and into the Southern states, the storm (which is a low pressure system) will react by moving the storm track to the east.

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note on NOAA links

It appears that the NOAA graphics links are updated.

Therefore, the image is changing based upon NOAA updates and not the image which was present when the original posting was made.

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LOL: GOP implode in progress ROTFaiLOL

Internet meme's R US.

The full on ROTFL is in full progress.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-national-convention-cancels-monday-events-because-of-tropical-storm-isaac/2012/08/25/1fb01c06-ef09-11e1-b0eb-dac6b50187ad_story.html

WAPO is reporting that the GOP has cancelled Monday events.

The funny thing is that CNN and MSNBC were saying this morning that the Monday night Anne Romney speech was moved to Tuesday night.  The story this morning also was that the Romney campaign was moving the "roll call vote" to Monday night.

Now we find out that the Monday events are totally not happening.

Guess what amigos, the Tuesday events will also be cancelled because the storm is coming!

The northeastern bend in the ground track is clearly visible and the land fall is going to start moving from west to east as the timing and the storm's movement intensifies and clarifies.

The ground track is already east of the last major storm to hit Tampa, which appears to give the computer projection a landfall that is farther northwest than the Florida panhandle.

But, regardless, the GOPers are going to look really detached from the humanity around it.

The storm surge is coming for Tampa, regardless of how the local GOP wants to play it.

The news trucks alone are going to need to risk a million dollar satellite truck at the convention site or lose the coverage and move to high ground.

This convention is already more "fail" than any in the last 50 years!

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Republicans cancel Monday convention events

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/08/25/republicans-cancel-monday-convention-events/

As predicted here first my T-ville friends...

I'm also going to predict that events during the rest of the convention will be impacted.

This will be an unmitigated natural disaster for Florida and an unmitigated political disaster for the Republicans.

It's looking as bad as McGovern '72 for the Democrats.

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more info from weather satellites

The storm has intensified today over the northern coast of Cuba.

http://image.weather.com/looper/archive/caribsat_600x405/5L.jpg?

The storm is clearly organizing and building in strength over the warm currents of the Florida straits.

To my untrained eye, the strongest part of the eye wall (the eastern side) is getting well organized over the waters just north of the eastern edge of Cuba.

These waters are very warm and will continue to intensify the storm.

The only real question is how much of a hurricane will hit Tampa on Tuesday/Wednesday.  The answer to this question is related to the velocity of the storm. 

The storm is already strong enough to wipe out the Monday schedule.

The storm track has moved landfall on the 5 day forecast from Mobile, Alabama to the Florida panhandle Today.

Tropical storm forecast gives a nearly 70% chance of hitting Tampa and the RNC convention for the DURATION of the convention now.

Storm surge at Tampa is already at 3-5 feet expected.

The arena is only 15 feet above sea level.

The major TV networks will need to make decisions on asset allocation now.  The TV production mobile units are millions of dollars of assets.  To deploy the satellite trucks to a location almost certainly guaranteed to be flooded will mean that most of the TV production trucks will NOT deploy to the convention site.

If I were the TV News guys, I would deploy the convention assets up and down the Florida gulf coast and even to Orlando's theme parks in order to cover the biggest hurricane to hit Florida since Andrew.  This is a huge news story and this storm will devastate part of Florida.

Let's all pray for the good people of Florida and pray that they will be safe from harm.

And, for the people of the GOP, you need to start your evacuation plans now.

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NOAA update 11 PM EDT 0300 UTC SAT AUG 25 2012

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC HEADING TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN
PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON
SPRINGS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  ISAAC IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
 

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see the Hurricane Isaac thread here

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4136/hurricane-isaac

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TX delegation at RNC draws a line in the delegate sand.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/texas-delegates-planning-floor-mutiny-over-rnc-rules-225837647.html

This is more important than the weather.

This is downright anti-democratic.

quoting the story:

Delegate Melinda Fredricks read aloud a letter condemning recent changes to the national Republican party's rules that would allow the GOP presidential candidate to veto and replace state delegates.

"Our delegates are in shock that such an amendment even would be presented before the Rules Committee much less passed into rule," Fredricks said. "Please know from the Texas delegation standpoint that the only way a floor fight can be avoided is for this rule to be stricken."

At that point, the entire Texas delegation stood up and applauded.

Texans don't necessarily want to have an ugly floor fight on the same day the party officially nominates Mitt Romney. But they're willing to do it if their concerns about the rule aren't satisfied. The changes, which Mitt Romney's top lawyer put forward last week and Gov. Haley Barbour along with some other Romney supporters have embraced, are seen by opponents as intended to significantly weaken the power of grassroots politics and insurgent candidates such as Ron Paul. Many against the move worry that it would give national candidates the power to replace delegates--often grassroots party faithfuls--with big-time donors or friends.

"We truly consider that an infringement on our rights," Fredricks, a member of the rules committee, told Yahoo News of the changes. Today, states generally choose their delegates at state conventions, and then those individuals travel to the national convention to cast their vote for a candidate based on the share the candidate won of the primary or caucus vote of each state. But, the changes could allow a candidate such as Mitt Romney to boot out any delegates who are assigned to vote for him and replace them.

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LOL new story about RNC - Yahoo News reverses their story

http://news.yahoo.com/gop-convention-floor-fight-averted-005806537--abc-news-politics.html

LOL

So much for Yahoo!News as a reliable reporter of the RNC convention!

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