Day & swing trading charts, ideas & wotnot

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kevsta
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Day & swing trading charts, ideas & wotnot

Somebody moaned about me putting too many trading charts in Pailin's thread so I thought I'd start a thread to put most of them in and just link to them from there for anyone interested. 

Im day and swing trading via Forex on whatever has a pulse really, and am often doing analysis which:

a) (some of which) I don't really see anybody else doing much of, publicly anyway

b) might sometimes look a bit abstract to specifically gold/silver focused types

c) ends up scattered up all over my desktop, so having it all in one place to look back on  thoughts with hindsight will also be good.

Please understand that charts are just thoughts - snapshots in time and I am in no way advising or trying to persuade anybody to make any decisions from anything I post. In fact, until the last 2 or 3 months you would have made good money doing and taking the exact opposite of everything I did, its a *bit* more even now, but far from a sure thing. ever. :)

These will mostly be for swing type trading ideas, but there might be some shorter timeframe day trading stuff too, hopefully some people might be interested in what I'm looking at from time to time, but if not feel free to tell me what I'm doing wrong too.  

With commodities, or PMs or equities, where I have a macro overview or opinion on which way I think it should be going overall, I try only to take trades in the direction I like, so if I think crude is heading upwards overall, I'm only looking for bounces and momentum longs, I wont short it, even when all the technicals say that's the play.

When that's the case I move to shorting equities instead, because I think their overall direction is still downwards, and one day when the floor opens up (or the Iranians kick off) I want to be positioned in the direction of what I hope are the surprise big moves. With currencies I'm neutral really, there its just red and green/blue lines and momentum/ trend. 

I've been looking at currencies and correlations between them and various markets in depth for a few months now and have noticed a few interesting things people might not have thought about, and ways this can possibly help alongside normal trading decisions.

For example, courtesy of the Swiss National Bank currency peg, some currency pairs have become quite predictable with regards to their movement with each other, and all the time the peg holds, this has to last.  So looking at 2 pairs that are locked together in the middle by the EUR/CHF bond, like say the 2 GBP pairs, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF

Obviously this is not failsafe, and it can just blow right on through there, (Netdania just adjusts the scale to suit) but more often than not, on the first touch it will reverse, at least temporarily. (Long may this last :) ) 

I don't trade from it alone, but it influences other trading decisions, ie if we are approaching the top of the "Reversometer" range that would invalidate any momentum long signals I might still have at the top of the run, whereas if we're in the middle of the range it would be valid. Usually these points will match up with support or resistance on trading charts, and again if you are thinking of shorting from resistance, this can give more confidence.

And so what I noticed is that the USDCHF is actually quite an important indicator, because it trades exactly inverse to EUR/USD. Why is this important? Because most "risk assets" and commodities tend to correlate quite well with EURUSD, so USDCHF gives us the potential to apply "Reversometer" thinking to almost everything else, for example, the Dow..

..you can not be certain which direction, (or even which one) of the pairs will move, but if you look at EURUSD overlaid with USDCHF and it's getting towards the potential reversal point there....? 

..so what I've been looking at this morning.

Gold (USD) looking surprisingly strong yesterday in the face of a bleeding Euro, clearly broken out of the directional correlation on 4hr frame.

The Dow did this a while back and seems to be floating on air to me, when you consider that European and global stock markets have been smashed, and some European stocks have been lower than 2008 crisis lows recently. 

and below makes me think long Euro / short Dow? with the idea that you don't really care which way they both move, the profit is just in the spread closing?   it's important to get position sizes and comparative ranges right though. I've had some spectacular success on the demo account with these types of thing, and some catastrophic failures too, I need to isolate just the first indecision

and these have got to be due for a swap-around again at some point

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:21

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sixdollarsilver
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Nice charts kevsta, thanks.

Like good charts, I do. Keep up the good work!

kevsta
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Gold action this week..

@sixdollarsilver - cheers amigo, will try to make some good ones too then ;)

So all the technicals say that Gold is waking up and about to go.  But be aware that one headline or surreptitious intervention can blow all of this right out of the water in an $80 drop in an instant, however, failing that, everything says up on my system.

I posted this reversal on the 1hr from yesterday in Pailin's, but it needs some context so more timeframes below

Weekly charts - bullish

Close up view.  we need to get through the 34/70ma resistance before getting too excited, after that a push through the 50 and primary downtrend here and I think we run..

Daily - looking stronger, basing off the support cluster of ma's trend remains positive (blue pins) new buy signal locked in, resistance is 200ma at $1651, then the primary downtrend line above.

would love to see one of those massive upspikes here, scare the bejasus out of the bubblecallers  :)

4 hourly, here you can see the reversal in action yesterday, basing off the 34/50 crossover and closing back above all the important ma's, again, buy signal locked in, trend turns positive...

15min charts..  I missed this yesterday but its a clear explanation of how I (should) trade breakouts

from here I would normally expect a re-test of the ma cluster below before a movement up.  on this 15 min chart the uptrend line is the new (uptrend 3) one being established.

all in all, gold looks very likely to explode higher anytime soon to me. 

the 3 rising trendlines in play is kind of supportive of Ben Davies interview the other day, although lacklustre to the upside, it does look to me as if gold is very strong below and pressure is definitely building in an upwards direction

“We want to state there has been a strong buyer in the gold market these past few months.  Also we want to reiterate the buyer in the room is Asian and has been stepping up their buy order, 1545, 1575 now 1600?” 

question is, will they, (can they) drop the hammer again once more..?   

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kevsta
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Gold in Euros..

Now we're talking, basically the same as in USD but stronger.  multi-week squeeze in play on weekly chart and undeniably bullish action to here.

on the daily chart you can see we actually closed fractionally over the primary downtrend (again) 

..maybe another day or 2 testing this last support uptrend line and the new "higher highs" line, and barring no nasty surprises it looks like "North" to me. 

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kevsta
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EUR USD

so the trend software is saying the bottom is in, on both daily and weekly

I posted this trend view once before, and should clarify it is often right, however in hindsight, it is always right, because when it is wrong, and a new higher or lower extreme is made, it just moves the line and the arrow, and keeps quiet as though nothing has happened :)  but mostly it is pretty good, a better idea than not having it, if anybody is interested in these indicators for MT4 they are from this guy, I like his educational stuff and these indicators were all free  www.trendtradingblueprint.com (please ignore the horrible hypey sales page, its worth the signup email for the freebies.)

but my own trend trading approach does not necessarily agree just yet.  ..still looks a bit weak to me, it clearly failed at the 50ma after the initial reversal off the (newish) trendline. we could very easily bust through the uptrend line and be back at 1.20 pretty fast (only 1 bad headline) 

if the 70ma (white) crosses over the 50 we could bang along at the 1.20-1.22 level for a while before bouncing, even assuming it holds.  it could also launch powerfully upwards, note how the current price is exactly where it rallied from once before, and we do have positive trend in play, but with this one I have doubts, so am fairly neutral, I will take breakout long plays or momentum shorts if they set up, after it conclusively breaks down.

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kevsta
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Spanish Stocks - Ibex

this has been without doubt my most profitable trading these last few weeks, its been like a dream, short it in the mornings, close out on any short term divergence as the US opens, and it rallies all afternoon ready for you to short it again the next day. range is great, regular 130-170pts from it if you're patient. 

however looks like might be bottoming here, 2 out of my 3 likely scenarios see a bounce here, if not a full bottom. it tracks the Euro sort of on intraday movement but has been truly battered of late so might be basing here now.

For reference, the 500 day ma on this is at 9036 lol 2000+ pts higher, compare that to the Dow, where the 500ma is at 12159 (lulz) and gold at $850 or something.  Long Ibex / Short Dow looks like a possible big winner?

ok thats my weekend homework done, have a good weekend everyone.

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sixdollarsilver
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Awesome

Thanks a million. Always good to see a reasoned perspective. And yeah, one of those big spikes up in XAU/USD through 1650 to 1680 would be pretty fun right about now :)

kevsta
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Silver

already posted in Pailins, chart says significant movement imminent..

and always struck by the similarities of very different markets 

crude

PMs and crude look to be ahead of the Euro on any potential trend reversal (up) - if we get big Eur spikes from news, these should launch IMO.

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kevsta
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interesting action thus far,

interesting action thus far, Euro disconnected from Gold direction

Euro rally didnt interfere too much with the mission, operation XAU cap accomplished.

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kevsta
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Eur & metals

Euro starting to look on the bullish side of neutral, reverse H&S setting up?  if we pop through the 50ma (purple) Id expect it to run fairly quickly up to the 70 (white) and targeting the 100 (blue and previous highs) next

gold still looking correspondingly bullish despite yesterday's action. 

this is obviously a daily chart  and today hasn't closed yet, so the buy signal isnt locked in yet, another push down could see it disappear by close today.  

If it does lock in again today I am ratcheting up the bullishness one more step, because the squeeze on the weekly chart is starting to look like this to me..

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sixdollarsilver
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great squiggles and analysis

Much the same thoughts here through today.

clueless one
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found this the other day...

I don't trade...I have no disposable income.

That being said, I watch multiple hours everyday...yes, I have no life.  I've tested this on commod's, stocks and Forex

This is for the newb's with play money...as a simple way to not be overwhelmed with all the specs of charting...

On a daily...

Use a 50 SMA (Red) and a 50 EMA (Green)

Also use a 5 EMA...

On a daily, it's simple.  Buy after the green crosses the red, just as they start to widen.  You'll see.  You could go before hand, just look for the 5 EMA to turn up and use OBV as a good bottoming indicator.  In this case, the 5 EMA will be way under the 50 and will run back up...but remember, it's only confirmed by a Green over Red cross.

On sell signals... use the rollover in the 5 EMA to signal a sell.  Just sell when it rolls and you start to see the Green/Red spread coming back together, don't ask questions.  If you wait until the Red crosses back over the Green, you're cutting a lot of profits out.

If you do hourly charts or under, I'd use 23/23/5  for 1hr and for the 10 min or 1 min charts, 13/13/4

btw...if you look at the Silver weekly...we're getting close to the Green crossing the Red...Daily has already crossed...and right on the day of the $26.12 low that Sinclair mentioned.  Go figure.  And how did it perform the last time the Green crossed the Red?

Point is, you can just use a daily chart and as long as the indicators look good, just raise your stops accordingly...you can trade a position for weeks at a time without worrying.  (of course...you're still in paper.... so...........)

Please, check this out.  I wish I had cash...I could use this to pay off the debt.  I hope someone can and does use this. 

peace!!!  cool

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"For nothing is secret, that shall not be made manifest; neither any thing hid, that shall not be known and come abroad" Luke 8:17

sounds a little like the current times, eh?

kevsta
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clueless one wrote: I don't

clueless one wrote:

I don't trade...I have no disposable income.

That being said, I watch multiple hours everyday...yes, I have no life.  I've tested this on commod's, stocks and Forex

This is for the newb's with play money...as a simple way to not be overwhelmed with all the specs of charting...

Please, check this out.  I wish I had cash...I could use this to pay off the debt.  I hope someone can and does use this. 

peace!!!  cool

crossing MAs can be used in a system, but as they are a rear-facing indicator they can always be reversed by events or news.

have you tried it out on a demo account? sign up somewhere and test away to your heart's content. ;)

__________________

"There are only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who do not."

The 2 secrets of success - 1. Never tell all that you know..

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