Silver poised to explode?

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Vagabond
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Silver poised to explode?

Tell me why I'm wrong and how much technicals don't matter and yada yada.

Confidence is incredibly low.  There is a near perfect double bottom.  And look what happened last time we saw this kind of pattern.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:08
JoeKa
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@vagabond

the last times you saw this pattern, the first was not a precedent and the second was a dead cat bounce.

this should only serve as one indicator of pattern. pattern reading requires you to cross-check with other patterns and indicators. right now the overall trend is still DOWN.

Abraham Bernanke
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@JoeKa

I disagree with you I am afraid, sorry.  I believe we are coming near to the end of this consolidation and in the not too distant future we will see a strong 5th wave bullish run up in the PM's.  Only time will tell if EWT is correct and the 4th wave consolidation is almost over and into the 5th wave (impulsive) up is played out.  Point to note is that 5th wave will need to go above the 3rd wave which will be above the previous top.

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JoeKa
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@Abe Bernak

Huh? How could you disagree with me when I actually agree with you? wink

I was referring to the primary trend line - which is down. That will only change once I see the daily candlesticks appearing above the PTL.

I wasn't disagreeing that we are coming to the end of the consolidation. I just don't agree that we have arrived... Yet.

As for strong bullish run...its debatable. If things pan out like 2008 - which they have been - then the upward ascent will be gradual. What I also see is an inverted cup and handle formation. I'll try and do a drawing and post on Pailin's.

See the charts I just posted as reference to these points.

SE
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The problem is, you can't use

The problem is, you can't use technical analysis in this market.  My experience shows me that.  What is more accurate is find out exactly what's going on out there.  We've got Europe, MF Global and its impact on the future of the futures market, possibly war with Iran, and the fact that there was at one point only about 14,000 or so contracts short in silver at COMEX, a 9-year low.  AS LONG AS THERE IS ANYTHING ABOVE ZERO CONTRACTS SHORT, THIS GAME WILL CONTINUE. 

This is what they do.  Let's start from the bottom, like now.  As they make money either from remaining shorts (like from $28 down to $26) or other lines of businesses), they use the money to go long at these prices, and pile on the longs for about two years, give or take a few months, then they trigger a selloff and have margins raised.  Before they trigger the selloff, stops are put in place so they can sell out at a profit and use as much as they can to cover those old shorts, and they immediately go short.  It starts out massively in the beginning, because there is more downside risk there than right now, near the bottom.  It goes down from there.  The further they can go, the more money they can make to pay off the underwater shorts they have.  Because there is about 14,000 contracts short, there is the possibility that there will be another runup that peaks maybe in a year and a half (around May 2013), and there will be another drop like this one to clear out the remaining shorts by going short again on the way down.  Go look at a ten-year silver data chart at Kitco, and you'll see the pattern.  I have used this pattern for six years (once I had enough data at that time to determine the shorting-long pattern) to time my purchases.

That said, I believe that silver will trade sideways for a while (unless MF Global, Iran, or war breakout in Europe are trigger points that occur) before starting its runup, and then have another interim peak around May 2013, and then drop from there.  The question I have is, is the runup going to end several months before May, or on May because the current short position is much smaller?  I don't remember the numbers, but it was something like 40-something thousand short all the way down to 14,000.  Maybe the runup will happen on a smaller scale on the chart as well as time-wise to help the shorts clear out one final time.

Economical Disaster
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Silver poised to explode? I

Silver poised to explode? I like this part the most.

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matthenue
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Poised... but still dormant

So long as we stay under this line.... the trend is down.

Once we break it... we can hope for 32 as our target :)

or is that just me?

matthenue
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and so it persists

Since i posted that... and it was about to touch that line

.... in come the flood gates of shorts.

dropping 0.7%

We're not ready just yet... but we are close

matthenue
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new territory

well.... what happens now ....we breached the line and sure enough a 4% positive rally...... will it hold?

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Whipsaw territory

I value all these posts in this thread....  agree the trend  for the moment is still down. .....  resistance at these lines and prices (30-32) is whipsaw territory........ I'm expecting big whipsaw in the next few days. Today  we got the 'whip'  tomorrow the whipsaw ??

I agree that the PTB manipulation  is profound, and theres no reason to think that the manipulation games  wont continue, ..... so moments like this, which you can see in the chart  action.... are the times when games  are played and tricks are pulled.  What better trick to play next , than a false breakout  as the key technicals get broken thru.....and it looks like an upside rush from here....  its Whipsaw time.

Down target gold  1575 - 1550-1525 - 1500 - 1475

silver target  28 - 26 -25 -24

Timing   thru January into february ...who the heck knows.  But the games and tricks..... you can bet on that much anyway.

donpaulo
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coming at this as somewhat of

coming at this as somewhat of a dilettante, I would think that "exploding" silver would be very bad for long term investors. The last thing we want are 3 month major run ups to 50 dollar peaks followed by large selloffs right ?

I mean unless someone wants to trade the volatility which is a fine plan assuming you want to pay the taxes and trading fees on all those transactions.

I would hope for a long slow price progression.

Then again I am a long term dollar cost average physical buyer with no expectation of getting rich, rather of maintaining my buying power.

I think the accumulation approach assumes the manipulation continues and that the dips are buying opportunities.

After all what is the paper to physical silver ratio ? anyone know ? I recall a Ranting Andy interview where numbers such as 400:1 where thrown around.

matthenue
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agreed

I agree with you we don't want an explosion just maintaining purchasing power... but I think it's sooo over sold at the moment and is due a price correction

Vagabond
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So far so good...

Rich MyGold
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Dave

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mrFZpZvUBac

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Awesomeness
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Keep posting the charts

Vagabond this looks very nice, please keep posting the charts.  I'm watching some EWT on this and your charts and potentially future lines look on the money. 

Vagabond
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Little bit of gloating.

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Solar Energy Production To Grow, Could Hit Silver Use

(Kitco News) - Solar energy production grew sharply in 2011, but the outlook for this industry is only partly sunny.

A reduction in government subsides, a sluggish global economy, a shaky manufacturing base, energy prices and high silver costs may curtail some of the development of this renewable energy source.

The global solar industry struggled for most of 2011. However, growth picked up substantially in the fourth quarter, allowing the industry to record a 50% increase in photovoltaic cell installations over 2010, to reach about 27 gigawatts, said Shayle Kann, managing director of GTM Research, a market analysis company. A gigawatt is 1,000 megawatts...............

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