AuRico Gold Inc (Public, NYSE:AUQ)

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survivalwstyle
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AuRico Gold Inc (Public, NYSE:AUQ)

lOOked for it. no thread title. so i decided to start one...got into this stock in the 10's 1x 9's 2x and 8 1x  and am now about to hit my first seLL at 11.22! 

would love to hear some thoughts from others on what they think this stock wiLL do. i have targets of 12.22 and 13.22 too. 

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:20

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NeedMoney
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Pissed I sold out at $11 :(

Pissed I sold out at $11 :(

Eric Original
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My biggest holding-AUQ

AUQ has been frequently discussed on my miner thread, but it's hard to pick out any single company out of almost 800 posts.  Suffice it to say that AUQ is currently my biggest holding.  The Northgate buy was genius.  As Young-Davidson comes online, and turns out to be bigger and better than anyone imagined, I think this stock is a double over the next year.

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AuRico's Young-Davidson Mine Close To First Gold Pour

AuRico Gold (TSX:AUQ)(NYSE:AUQ) says that the company’s Young-Davidson Mine is expected to pour its first gold towards the end of March.... ...The Young-Davidson Mine is expected to produce roughly 85,000 ounces of gold in 2012 and 135,000 ounces in 2013, the company says. Over a 15-year mine life, AuRico forecasts an annual average gold production of 180,000 ounces a year. By Alex Létourneau of Kitco News Full article at: http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120228_MM.html Thanks to everyone at TF Metals who help bring AUQ to my attention last fall. I am glad see production come to fruition. I started with 100sh at $9.87 and added at $9.36, $9.21 and $8.58. Added 200 at $7.54 so I am feeling OK with AUQ nearing $10.00 or so. I also hold the in the money AUQ 06/16/2012 7.00 C which on down days can sometimes be purchased for little or no time premium.

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rock collector

You got in at really good prices. My shares were purchased last September, before the knock down in Au, at $11.50. I've just been waiting for recovery. I also hold some 03/17/12 10 C which I hope will stay ITM.

Hopefully all goes well with startup and we get continuing streams of good news.

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rock collector
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AUQ Call Options

With today's bounce back to $10, AUQ seems relatively unscathed by yesterday's crash. With new production only a month away, I believe we stand a good chance of staying above $10 going forward. This morning I added 2 AUQ 06/16/2012 7.00 C @ $2.90 ea. I find it curious that there is virtually no time premium on this ITM call. @ SteveW - Good luck with your March $10 calls!

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AUQ options

With AUQ at $9.53 this minute the ask on the AUQ 06/16/2012 7.00 C is $2.70. So you're paying a 17 cent time premium. Since the $7 strike is below the 52 weeks low (which relates to volatility) I don't find the low premium too surprising. You're basically buying a highly leveraged short term warrant.

My 03/17/2012 10.00 C looks as if it will be OTM. I see I didn't mention that it was a synthetic long call with a short 03/17/2012 10.00 P. The price difference was + 0.40 so at $9.60 or better I have no theoretical loss, apart from commissions.

I plan to repeat the position after March expiry looking for an early pop.

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AuRico Gold reports - 2011 Revenues & Earnings way up!

TORONTO, March 27, 2012 /CNW/ - AuRico Gold Inc. (TSX: AUQ) (NYSE: AUQ), ("AuRico" or "the Company") is pleased to report financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2011. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.
Fourth Quarter Highlights, 
Revenues of $154.8 million, a 118% increase over 2010 
Net earnings of $77.9 million, $0.31 per share, a 166% increase over 2010 
Operating cash flow of $42.1 million, or $0.17 per share, an 18% increase over 2010 Production of 72,141 gold ounces and 1.1 million silver ounces, or 92,837 gold equivalent ounces using the actual gold equivalency ratio of 46:1, a 75% increase over 2010 
Cash costs of $681 per gold equivalent ounce, using the actual gold equivalency ratio of 46:1 Margins of $991 per ounce, or 59% 

Full Year Highlights,
Revenues of $450.1 million, an increase of 89% over 2010 
Net earnings of $176.9 million, $0.96 per share, 231% over 2010 
Operating cash flow of $181.8 million, $0.99 per sh, 86% over 2010 
Production of 187,423 gold ounces and 4.7 million silver ounces, or 293,760 gold equivalent ounces using gold equivalency ratio of 46:1, a 50% increase over 2010
Cash costs of $501 per gold equivalent ounce, using the actual gold equivalency ratio of 54:1 Margins of $1,098 per gold equivalent ounce, or 69% 

"In 2011 we have achieved many key milestones that support our vision of being a low cost intermediate gold producer focused in North America. We completed two accretive acquisitions that have significantly enhanced our production growth profile and, combined with the success of our exploration programs, have delivered a 217% increase in our total reserve inventory to over 8.63 million gold equivalent ounces3. Year over year we increased our earnings by 231%, our operating cash flow by 18% and finally our reserves per 1,000 shares by 56%," stated Ren Marion, Chief Executive Officer. He continued, "With the sale of the Australian operations, we begin 2012 with a portfolio of quality core assets focused in North America that provide a peer-leading growth profile and a compelling value opportunity. In 2012, our efforts will be focused on commissioning the Young-Davidson mine and bringing underground production forward to the end of 2012, two years earlier than originally targeted in the 2009 Feasibility Study. With the first gold pour at Young-Davidson imminent, we believe the Company is poised for a meaningful re-rating as we strengthen our position as an intermediate gold producer."

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AuRico Gold Provides Monthly Update on Young-Davidson April 5

http://www.kitco.com/pr/1738/article_04052012082557.pdf

April 5, 2012: AuRico Gold Inc. (TSX:AUQ) (NYSE:AUQ) Young-Davidson Project Construction Update 

Wet commissioning has been completed and ore processing has commenced which now allows the team to fully test the various systems prior to commencing 24 hour operations.

Young-Davidson employees and contractors are diligently working towards achieving the first gold pour, a key project milestone, which is expected to occur this month.

Numerous large photos of the facility in the linked pdf.

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April 11 - AuRico Reports 35% Increase from N. American Assets

Complete article at http://www.kitco.com/pr/1738/article_04112012030611.pdf

First Quarter and Recent Highlights – AuRico North America
• Production of 45,528 gold ounces and 1.112 million silver ounces, or 67,068 gold equivalent ounces using the actual gold equivalency ratio of 52:1, a 35% increase over 2011.
• Cash costs of $601 per gold equivalent ounce, using the actual gold equivalency ratio of 52:1.
• Realized margins of $1,109 per ounce, or 65%.

Excerpt: “With four operating mines in North America, AuRico is now poised to grow production quarter over quarter in 2012 by up to 90% by year-end. The increase in
quarterly production in 2012 will underpin a peer-leading 105-146% growth profile over the next three years and positions the Company as a leading gold producer focused in North America.”

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AuRico Gold - Three Year Guidance 2012 2013 2014

FYI   This guidance includes 9 months of production from Young - Davidson Mine, newly opened  in 2012.

Full article at: http://www.newsfilecorp.com/release.aspx?id=2001

" AuRico Gold is now directing all of its attention to delivering value for shareholders from its three core operating mines, including Young-Davidson where first production is imminent, and its development pipeline in Mexico and Canada."

Three Year Guidance

For 2012, 2013, and 2014, AuRico’s estimated production, cash cost, and capital expenditure guidance is summarized in the table below.

  2012 2013 2014
Production Gold eq. Oz. Gold eq. Oz. Gold eq. Oz.
Ocampo 180,000-200,000 180,000-205,000 210,000-245,000
El Chanate 78,000-88,000 75,000-85,000 75,000-95,000
Young-Davidson 65,000-75,000 135,000-155,000 165,000-190,000
Total 323,000-363,000 390,000-445,000 450,000-530,000
  2012 2013 2014
Cash Costs Per Gold eq. oz. Per Gold eq. oz. Per Gold eq. oz.
Ocampo $465-$495 $550-$600 $500-$550
El Chanate $450-$480 $455-$485 $480-$510
Young-Davidson $450-$550 $500-$550 $460-$510
Total $465-$490 $515-$565 $480-$530
  2012 2013 2014
Capex (excluding exploration) US$ (millions) US$ (millions) US$ (millions)
Ocampo $36-$50 $60-$70 $45-$60
El Chanate $45-$49 $30-$40 $35-$45
Young-Davidson $173-$187 $100-$130 $50-$65
Total $254-$286 $190-$240 $130-$170
1. Production and cash costs for the Ocampo mine and on a consolidated basis are calculated on a per gold equivalent ounce basis. Gold equivalent production and cash costs are based on a gold equivalency ratio of 55:1 unless otherwise indicated.
2. Cash costs for the Young-Davidson and El Chanate mines are calculated on a per gold ounce basis, using by-product revenues as a cost credit. Production includes gold ounces only.
3. Forecasted cash costs at the Young-Davidson mine do not include pre-production ounces reported prior to the declaration of commercial production.
4. The following currency assumptions were used to forecast 2012 estimates:
  12:1 Mexican pesos to the US dollar
  1:1 Canadian dollars to the US dollar
5. See the Non-GAAP Measures section on page 26 of the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2011.
Eric Original
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AUQ has been holding up

AUQ has been holding up pretty well during this bloodbath in the miners.  yes

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Why would AUQ sell a mine and development to endeavor?

I was seriously looking at AUQ to add to my SVM and PAAS holdings, but ran into this story today.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/17/the-lost-art-of-patience-pays-for-endeavour-silver.aspx

I don't understand why they would be selling off a good mine and development property.  I think I will wait until I can find out more.

EDIT: If  I would have just read the guidance in the link provided by rockcollector, I could have answered my own question and not looked so foolish.

Thanks for helping answer my question before I asked.  Nothing wrong with their strategy IMO

Eric Original
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AUQ is trying to lower their

AUQ is trying to lower their overall average cost of production, to appeal to a more "blue chip" oriented kind of mining stock investor.  That's why they recently also sold off the Australian mines.  

El Cubo has been a problem child mine for AuRico for a while now.  Various problems and stubbornly high costs.  They now have the company boiled down to just three Grade A properties, Ocampo, El Chanate, and Young-Davidson, and have a real nice hoard of cash to work with.  Statistical metrics like return on equity should improve. 

I don't know if I totally agree with it all either, but I can see where the strategy is going.  In a year or so, they'll have similar production to something like New Gold.  If they can get institutional backing and pricing like New Gold has, that could mean about a double in the stock.  That's the plan, anyway. yes

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auq

I sense you are correct.

but something about the idea of institutional backing.... isnt the 'institutional' powers the ones who are short attacking the miners in this monetary crisis war? Hedge funds playing that short miners /long gold strategy? maybe I dont understand.

in any case...... with miners getting destroyed by the  collapsing share price , and no end in sight for the rest of spring ,summer into fall, a long painful waiting time for investors to suffer,   finding the bottom targets   shows the possibility of AUQ  falling ,I once thought to 7.50 ....but from there  another bottom zone is 6 dollars and change.

AUQ at 6.20 later in the summer. 

I'm learning to  fine tune my pessimism. find the lowest targets that make sense,like 7.50  and then look lower still to ridiculous lows that Dont make sense.  

Looking  at the 2008 crash bottoms and 200 Moving average on the weekly charts. as a benchmark. isnt so ridiculous to consider now.

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Young-Davidson Mine Pours First Gold Bar - AuRico Gold

Young-Davidson Mine Pours First Gold Bar 
Ramp-Up to Commercial Production Begins

Toronto: May 1, 2012: AuRico Gold Inc. (TSX: AUQ) (NYSE: AUQ), (“AuRico” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that the Young-Davidson mine, located in the Abitibi gold belt in Northern Ontario, has completed its first gold pour. Commercial production is expected to be declared early in the third quarter. 

For more info and photos go to: http://www.kitco.com/pr/1738/article_05012012083711.pdf

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Hats off to you for getting

Hats off to you for getting in on AuRico so early.

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Target practice

a month ago when AUQ was sliding in the sideways wave, I was saying a down target at 7.50 area was in view but that the greater pessimist  ought to be seeing the lower target around 6.50 - 6 as a better bargain if you want to buy some.

Today we hit the 7.50 target . I see no reason why it wont continue  down to  6 and change.

Too bad I have no dry powder left.

Theres alot of decent looking  bargains now..... Eldorado Gold, Silvercorp, Kirkland Lake,Alexco,  PSLV, to name a few.

Might as well keep waiting.... theres 6 weeks left to the end of June.

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a bottom,and bounce and now what

Well, my forecast for AUQ to bottom around 6 and change, where the reverse head and shoulders sits near 6.25  toward 6 area....it has currently ' bottomed ' at 6.69 and made a strong bounce  almost a dollar. 

my sense is that 6.69 is not low enough. I wanted to see a bottom at 6 area, to be more convinced.

Now ,for all miner stocks, we face a big ceiling of resistance overhead. For AUQ its around 8.  the 8-9 area.

Every miner has  the same ceiling of resistance  from  a bunch of pivot points and trendlines overhead.

IF we have seen  an interim bottom here....we now have to watch  and see how strong the overhead resistance is  in the coming days and weeks. The battle between bears and bulls is now just overhead. Lower bottoms/targets  are visible,and possible   in the next 5 weeks.

Nobody's out of the woods yet.  

Alot of hard climbing a big wall of worry now to get thru the overhead resistance.  Most issues arent there yet. Many got close from today's bounce.   most sitting just below the resistance. Like a wave 3, that pulled back during the day into a wave 4, coiling now to  make the wave 5 ,weaker effort to go higher, and upon hitting the ceiling of resistance....will fail and  fall down with what bear strength and Cartel power wants to  slam it down again.....we shall see soon enough.

I anticipate a  demoralizing whipsaw soon. and a retest of the  recent lows and a good chance at lower lows  in the next 5 weeks. 

Let me know when the rigged game stops being a rigged game.

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Technical Analysis

Is such a waste of time and effort.................................buy if you think something is undervalued/oversold, looking at a pattern and trying to discern where it will stop/go, especially in this market, is a complete utter waste.  I love when TA people say "this should be the bottom but if it goes through this line of support look out".  Not fucking way, you mean if it goes below that line it will go lower? Sorry, nothing personal, I just absolutely hate TA.

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give specific examples

it doesnt add to my understanding if all you said is TA doesnt work. unless you explain precisely why and how it fails.

I can tell you, from doing it  every day, for the last 5 years....that it does work.  90% accurate 85 % of the time.

But, its very tricky, and sometimes doesnt work. just an example.  i recently forcasted EGO to target 10 dollars....it stopped at 10.20 and bounced. 

prior to that , in the february upwave, I thought it would top out at 16....but it fell short by a fair amount, .

80% accurate is good for hand grenades.

lately the problem is that the PTB with their algorithms have taken over the game, and the charts we see now are all painted by their numbers, which  fools us when they want to fool us.

so i have to be extra careful in what i'm looking at with TA . it gives you a fair idea , but you have to develop a spidey sense feel for what the wizard  is doing.as they paint the charts.

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