Ivar's Charts

There are two regions between the vertical blue lines ( jan 2012 and 15Mar-May 2012) where USDx and XAG act in the same direction. Question- will Jan 2012 action be repeated NOW, but at higher level?:

Not exactly, in my opinion. EUR will not recover anytime soon, the trend is still down to at least 1,2 , so USDx will move up, but so will silver whatever happens to USDx. Whatever they do in Europe. German people (voters)  are exceptionally principal about paying others what they have not earned, and Merkel politically is in the corner. So I expect further delays in action that could save Greece by money  printing or even more remotely, Eurobonds. It will come, but always too little, too late at least until next German federal  elections,  which if it is  a regular election,  will be held on a Sunday or holiday between 1 September and 27 October 2013.

Hi redwood,

Something like this-slowly negating part of negative corellation it away, by sometimes moving in tandem:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170961#comment-170961

In the end of 2008, with QE1 and actions before official announcement, it took from October 2008 till May 2009 to get USDx from 88 to 79, or 6 months. It took 5 months to do the same from May 2010-Septemeber 2010. To do the same now, as we may hit 88 in June 14th, they will have if announced in June formal QE3 to work (USDx back to 79) only by end of October 2012 if lucky-start of November 2012 ( which I think they will be not and more actions will be needed).  That is kind of close to elections, may be too close to risk doing it too late?

So , in that sense, to be effective as a tool to shore up "propaganda economics" it should happen tomorrow as Europe keeps not giving the USA Eurobonds.

This is the chart of USDx with FED uncomfortable line of 88 added and prediction when it will be hit:

I have been focusing on GSR quite a lot. Here is a historic chart showing how starting at least from 2010 lower GSR is always bullish for silver and higher- bearish. Instead of higher GSR being bullish to gold and lower bearish to gold. The relation between gold and GSR is not even closely so symmetric, and it can not be , as silver is, so obviously , its silver prices that reflect ( create) most of the changes in GSR :

With this colorful image I wanted to show that in log scale, where silver for 10 years follows its natural  exponential growth trend ( which is straight line in log chart) , silver has only ONCE erupted outside the down limit of a channel on which it rests also now.

At the same time, with last 3 minimums it is playing around 50% fibo retracement from the whole ascent since 2002. That is quite a retreat given the fundamentals.

Will it break it again,or situation for commodities in general and silver in particular is NOT so bad as in Autumn of 2008 when USDx was around 88 for 6 months in a row?

Testing different charting tools. This one is from www.freecharts.com.

Since after todays action I have no more doubts that May 16th bottom was the final one, I have the courage to update Silver prediction chart -press right button, View image, zoom- excuse me for my charting quality:

Press right button-View-zoom to see dates and prices.

In  my 3rd day of reading on TA and getting into candlestick patterns I have found a friend who helped me to come up with this interesting observation:

3 weekly hammers in a row on a 144 moving average..which has touched silver chart earlier to its benefit.