How volatile times and crashes make long term forecasting possible, what are the resulting prediction charts, and implications from them. I hope most of charts will be there.
It's a great idea to post your charts here! I'll be sure to check regularly!
Great Job as always !!!
I have recently come across Sornette's work "why stock markets crash". Am I right that you have been considerably influenced by this writer? If so, it helps to explain your approach to your work, since it departures so much from more conventional forms of prediction.
Thanks for compiling a collection, will try to study as time allows.
@redwood - here is a recent paper by Sornette & Johansen on population and economic growth (which I have not yet read, and cannot until 2morrow, as my eyes are seeping out of their sockets at the moment due to too-much monitor time) - curious to your and Ivars' thoughts. A sample of one of the possible scenarios (it seems they're not all THAT bad, but positive outcomes involve interplanetary colonisation, for instance):
"The participants issued a statement, signed by representatives of 58 academies on population issues related to development, notably on the determinants of fertility and concerning the effect of demographic growth on the environment and the quality of life.The statement finds that “continuing population growth poses a great risk to humanity,” and proposes ademographic goal: “In our judgment, humanity’s ability to deal successfully with its social, economic, andenvironmental problems will require the achievement of zero population growth within the lifetime of ourchildren” and “Humanity is approaching a crisis point with respect to the interlocking issues of population,environment and development because the Earth is finite” . Possible scenarios involve a systematicdevelopment of terrorism and the segregation of mankind into at least two groups, a minority of wealthycommunities hiding behind fortresses from the crowd of “barbarians” roaming outside, as discussed in arecent seminar at the US National Academy of Sciences. Such a scenario is also quite possible for therelation between developed and developing countries."http://xxx.lanl.gov/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/0002/0002075v4.pdf
Thank you for that link. Without even knowing it I c/p'ed some of the same material on the main board. It was quite illuminating to witness the derivation of said formulas to predict the evolution of "crashes" using population and GDP parameters, based on many crash cycles throughout the world over many decades. The concept of man having possibily entered a transition phase with an impending new regime is indeed what we all feel at an unconscious level. The solutions appear daunting, but certainly explains the shift of industry from developed to developing countries, among others. I will probably be referring back to this article at several points. Thank you again.
Good stuff,Ivars. Keep up the good work.