Ivar's Charts

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ivars
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Ivar's Charts

How volatile times and crashes make long term forecasting possible, what are the resulting prediction charts, and implications from them. I hope most of charts will be there.

Edited by Moderator Jefferson on 10/30/2011 - 06:36

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Gold prices 2012-2017

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Silver prices 2011-2017

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EUR/USD 2011-2018

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US debt accumulation and default 2011-2016

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DJIA 20081929 overlay with QE effect identified-till 2014

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QE addition to share prices post 2008, in %

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Superexponential addition and need from QE to keep stock prices

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ICE Brent crude 1M 2011-2013

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Nasdaq 1999-2022 Nikkei 1987- 2012 overlay- interesting 2018

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GSR 2002----2012-2017

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Thanks Ivars!

It's a great idea to post your charts here! I'll be sure to check regularly!

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Thanks for the effort Ivars

+1

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Thanks Ivars

Great Job as always !!!

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Greece Athens DJIA overlay till 2017 inflation (=real depegging)

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Ivars

Hi Ivars,

I have recently come across Sornette's work "why stock markets crash".  Am I right that you have been considerably influenced by this writer?  If so, it helps to explain your approach to your work, since it departures so much from more conventional forms of prediction.

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Housewarming welcome

Thanks for compiling a collection, will try to study as time allows.

@redwood - here is a recent paper by Sornette & Johansen on population and economic growth (which I have not yet read, and cannot until 2morrow, as my eyes are seeping out of their sockets at the moment due to too-much monitor time) - curious to your and Ivars' thoughts. A sample of one of the possible scenarios (it seems they're not all THAT bad, but positive outcomes involve interplanetary colonisation, for instance):

"The participants issued a statement, signed by representatives of 58 academies on population issues related to development, notably on the determinants of fertility and concerning the effect of demographic growth on the environment and the quality of life.

The statement finds that “continuing population growth poses a great risk to humanity,” and proposes a
demographic goal: “In our judgment, humanity’s ability to deal successfully with its social, economic, and
environmental problems will require the achievement of zero population growth within the lifetime of our
children” and “Humanity is approaching a crisis point with respect to the interlocking issues of population,
environment and development because the Earth is finite” [45]. Possible scenarios involve a systematic
development of terrorism and the segregation of mankind into at least two groups, a minority of wealthy
communities hiding behind fortresses from the crowd of “barbarians” roaming outside, as discussed in a
recent seminar at the US National Academy of Sciences. Such a scenario is also quite possible for the
relation between developed and developing countries."

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ivars
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@redwood Sornette

Yes, its true. I am still trying to understand the math (renormalization group-complex exponents. brrr) , but I already use the log-periodic signatures to single out potential long term crashes.

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Jy896

Thank you for that link.  Without even knowing it I c/p'ed some of the same material on the main board.  It was quite illuminating to witness the derivation of said formulas to predict the evolution of "crashes" using population and GDP parameters, based on many crash cycles throughout the world over many decades.  The concept of man having possibily entered a transition phase with an impending new regime is indeed what we all feel at an unconscious level.   The solutions appear daunting, but certainly explains the shift of industry from developed to developing countries, among others. I will probably be referring back to this article at several points.  Thank you again.

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New forum

Good stuff,Ivars. Keep up the good work. 

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