My favourite newsletter just became VERY SCARY

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hpx
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My favourite newsletter just became VERY SCARY

I just thought I would give you all a link : 

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2011/10/most-important-decision-bernanke-will.html

I've followed the Gold Scents newsletter for a while now, and I find it very good. This is not to be seen as blatant advertising however, rather I would just like to point you to the latest public post by Gary (for some reason it says "Toby Connor" at the top, the guy writing it currently is called Gary), where he outlines what he thinks could be Bernankes last, fatal mistake - and the fact that it may in fact come sooner than we all think.

Scared the **** out of me to get it confirmed that yet another person who seems to have a good read on the markets is now fearing hyperinflation. 

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:03
backseatdriver
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I might

I might float that out on the main forum for some more "takes", because that is definitely interesting. 

BSD

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Green Lantern
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Thanks for sharing that

Thanks for sharing that hpx.   There is most certainly a great number of converging events in the world that point to this scenario playing out in this manner.  It's getting interesting.

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Eric Original
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just marking my spot

My daughter is kicking me off the computer right now, but I for sure want to come back and read the rest of that.  It seemed pretty interesting as far as i got.

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redwood
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hpx

agree with bsd.  Folks on main street would appreciate it.

Gil
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Worthwhile read, thanks for posting

What I got from it: POSX will need to stay above the 200MA for at least the next 3 or 4 months, otherwise she gets swept through some swift rapids for a couple more years and goes over Victoria Falls in 2014. The Bernank can lock in that schedule with an announcement of front-door QEx before March 2012.

If the author turns out to be correct, I would be ok with that time frame. It would maybe give us a bit more time to plan and prepare. Then again we might be at war with Iran in March 2012, which would change everything.

So much for gloom and doom. Today was a stunningly beautiful day in Four Corners USA, a great day to be alive on the blue planet. Cheers!

Big L
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rising wages necessary for inflation?

For inflation (or hyperinflation) to take hold, aren't rising prices AND rising wages both necessary?

Currently falling demand for goods and services reduces the 'manufacturers' ability to raise prices, and therefore raise wages.

Examples:

Manufacturing is cutting profits at an insane level just to stay in business on the hope things improve. Their margins are cut as the cost of raw materials are rising but they can't raise prices because people won't buy the products. They are also selling fewer goods. They have no ability to offer higher wages and probably need to shed more employees anyway. (Yes, we will see a new round of layoffs and business closures as these businesses fail.)

A non-manufacturing example: real estate brokers would be insane to raise their commissions in a down RE market. They're making less because there a fewer sales, they can't charge more because there is no demand for their services. They can't give themselves a raise.

Without rising wages, there is nothing to push inflation into hyper inflation. I believe that TPTB are well aware of this, and are therefore comfortable 'printing' money.

What we have now is ... Stagflation, which is, stagnant wages, and falling net worth PLUS Rising cost of necessities.

Stagflation means that all you have and own and save will decrease in value, everything you must have will rise in cost.

Very ugly, all the wealth will be sucked away.

The danger comes when the economy recovers. When wages start to rise, Katie bar the door! You could very well see hyperinflation. I am of the belief that the economy may not recover for 10+ years, if then. So I'm not worried about hyper inflation right now.

Costs of necessities are rising, the cost of luxuries is falling.

If you have money to burn, now is a great time to get bargains. There isn't any conspiracy here, just economics. Luxury goods providers typically have much larger profit margins. Markups on jewelery for example can be up to 500%. There is a lot of room for markdowns while preserving profits in these sectors.

Eric Original
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It's interesting, but....

It's a decent article but I have a couple of problems with it.

  • I don't particularly care for the flat, definite statements that there is a "correct" decision, and a "wrong" decision.  While many of us may have strong opinions as to what is "correct" and what is "wrong", these truths are not etched in stone.  They remain...opinions.  When it comes to money and investing, I'm not particularly concerned with what I think is "correct".  "Correct" doesn't help me make money.  I try to keep my eye on what I think "will happen", as opposed to what "should happen".  I agree with the basic premise that TF lays out on this site that the money printing will continue.  That's all I really need, regardless of opinions as to whether that policy is "correct" or "wrong".  
  • I've been around this stuff for 30 years.  If I've seen one article stating flatly that "The next couple of weeks or months is going are going to be of grave importance", then I've seen a hundred of them.  For the last 30 years! Armageddon hasn't hit yet.  Yes, we are here on sites like this because we fear that it is out there somewhere.  And yes, when it comes it might seem to come practically overnight.  But I've learned over the years to discount the guys who say that the next few weeks will be crucial.

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cris
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the Long Emergency

Eric O said:

"If I've seen one article stating flatly that "The next couple of weeks or months is going are going to be of grave importance", then I've seen a hundred of them.  For the last 30 years! Armageddon hasn't hit yet. "

................

One of the conepts put forward by James Howard Kunstler in his masterpiece The Long Emergency is that there will NOT be a sudden breakdown, but rather a slow inexorable deterioration. I think that is exactly what we are seeing.

Btw, great blig: http://kunstler.com/blog/

backseatdriver
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cris
cris,
 
I completely agree with you. Its the boiling frog analogy. How much weight can collectivism put on the end of the teeter, before it snaps. A simple extrapolation on a graph can show you the injustices that are happening in a more concerted fashion over the last 40 years. 
 
We know the problems, even the roots of the problem. The question is how fast can we repel the evil, and jump out of the pot as a species and say, NO MORE. We must be allowed to fail, as individuals, groups, companies and corporations. From top to bottom, big and small failure is an option not the inverse.
 
We must all be ROOT STRIKERS, as well as preppers. I hope TFMetals becomes a global beacon of light for people to wake up to the evils in front of them.
 
BSD
 
 

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garysavage
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Toby Connor is the pen name

Toby Connor is the pen name my partner and I use to publish the Gold Scents website. The regular blog www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com has a lot more participation.

hpx
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Woa!

And there's Gary himself joining the conversation! Didn't know he frequented this place. Hey Gary - hope you don't mind me pushing your posts, the last public one had me so worked up I just had to link it in a few places.

SCARY SH**, and I'm not even an american!

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