Bargins

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GoldMania3000
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Bargins

There seem like bargins are out there.  Some of the mid-tiers juniors that are going to build mines have been cut in half.  Look at keegan. It was over $9 and now below $5. Isn't that a bargin? What about Mirasol? that seems like another bargin.  close to it's 52 week low.  could they get cheaper? maybe...but maybe a good strategy is to start building posisiti0ns in these companies.    Back in 2008 when i bought some of these things on the cheap they went up 10 times.. The big question do we go lower.  

I think the fed will come in and print more...i suspect they will not let us go all the way down to 2008/09 levels, but we don't know what could transpire..

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:20
Jasper Puddlemaker
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Yes...

A question I have is whether or not they are actually able to prevent another plunge from occurring (regardless of what they do).  I don't know, but at some point it seems like they will become overwhelmed and unable to prevent the inevitable.   But that doesn't mean metals and metals stocks will plunge also.  Maybe they would initially; maybe they would not.   I think the trendline for metals will be upwards for several years yet, so companies that produce them are going to be rolling in cash.  I am picking up a number of the junior producers and soon-to-be producers at these levels.  The best companies out there are on sale here and now.  If they drop more I won't be upset because they are a great value right here (and would just add to positions). 

(And I agree on Mirasol.)

GoldMania3000
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Listening to Jim Ricards and

Listening to Jim Ricards and he doesn't think QE3 is on the horizion.  But his thesis on why gold will go up due to the triangle: China, Euro, US and a strong EURO which will mean a lower dollar.  Interesting. So what does this do for shares?

The other bargin  seem to be International tower hill which has also been cut significantly.  The question is what will be sold off during tax season? 

Jasper Puddlemaker
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It would sure be easier if

It would sure be easier if everyone on my 'short list' would just agree with each other :)  Rickards thinks  the Euro will strengthen, Armstrong thinks the Euro and Yen will be taken down first, with the $US taken down last.

By my way of thinking, either way gold and silver should go up, and the companies that produce them should make a ton of cash.  Seems like owning them is a no-brainer.  I know I like picking up the Canadian juniors with my stronger $US :)

I suppose shares will be under pressure for a couple of months, or even longer if the global meltdown continues, but it also seems like the shares are a great value at current prices.  As always, differentiating the great companies from the average or bad is the best formula for success.  I like THM's potential too.

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Jim Rickards and Jim Willie

"Rickards doesnt think we will have "QE3" Jim Willie says its  already ongoing ,hasnt stopped, just being done with deception,  and in a global way.

I like both pundits. but think Willie may be right  about this one.

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Finding bargains

.....a good topic...and now with the bouncing rally  already getting long in the tooth....harder to find miners on sale....we might have to wait for the next dip/crash....and see what the next lows look like.

What I'm watching carefully now is the resistance tops overhead and approaching....All the miners have a strong resistance overhead looming ....and along with the S+P chart looking  at resistance and the dollar going down into some looming support level...(maybe the 76-75 area?)  it could be time to  anticipate a reversal and the next wave going down  in the miners....

Heres where the game gets  fun  to watch and trade with nimble fingers and vision.

Will the miners fall back all the way to retest the lows  or even make new lows? or will the miners only pullback maybe halfway,as in a 50% fib pullback....and hold support there for a reversal back uptrend?

Taking  THM  as an example, I see International Tower Hill  having a resistance zone overhead between 6 -6.70 ,but right now in the 5.35 area ,5.70 area and  a natural place right now to end the breakout wave , it could pullback now  to 4.70 ,before heading back to test 5.70....but longer outlook shows the 6.50 area  as the big resistance.

With  the recent lows   around 4.40 .....I suppose its easy to see a range between the low zone of 4.70  the middle zone of 5.70 and the top zone of 6.70 as targets.

A bargain ,or at least the next logical place to consider buying would be an immediate (next few days) pullback to 4.70 area .

I had the 4 dollar area as my stink bid zone but  4.40  was as far as it went.

Compare THM with Scorpio Mining and Avion Gold.....THM is really lagging.

Jasper Puddlemaker
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sheeple wrote: "Rickards

sheeple wrote:

"Rickards doesnt think we will have "QE3" Jim Willie says its  already ongoing ,hasnt stopped, just being done with deception,  and in a global way.

I like both pundits. but think Willie may be right  about this one.

Perhaps they are both correct (sort of?).  No overt QE3 yet, but plenty of covert ongoing QE3?   Sinclair  implied this in a post last night, but also indicated a change is in the wind:

------------------------

What does gold need? What does gold want? A return to front door QE3.  Gold will get its wish with Eurobonds leading this QE parade.

------------------------

Determining when to pick up more undervalued shares is a tough one in this environment for sure.  Shares in juniors are severely depressed in comparison to au/ag, so picking them up at these levels is a no-brainer (if one believes au/ag has a bright future).  Yet, one hates to miss another 08-style sale if one is on the way.  I'm holding a bit of cash back in anticipation of a plunge, but more and more these days am trying to force myself to put technicals on the back shelf and focus on the fundamentals.   When I get particularly annoyed at the action in the shares I remind myself that the best play I ever made was picking up as many junior shares as I could afford to back in 20001-2003 when nobody wanted them.   It feels like 2001-2003 again.  I don't know about the timing for the next leg up, but I didn't back then either. 

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I guess this is why it feels so much like '01-'03 to me...

GoldMania3000
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QE Covert Style

So how does the markets recognize QE covert.  If the feds made an announcement then we know what would happen to gold/silver.  Up up and away.  Because people would be aware of what is transpiring and play the paper printing trade-gold.. So is it at some point that the QE that probably is going on behind the scenes going to be recognized by investors/traders--they say "hey look what they did." And will the gold price catch up to what they did with the printing that has been going on covertly. 

On the shares it seems the view by some/many is that these things are great buys right now..from a value perspective. That depends which company your looking at..Things are undervalued based on where the price of gold is today.  So we could even say that things are much more undervalued then they were in the early 2000s because the gold price is much higher?  Folks are buying but i assume there will be another point for us to pick up cheaper..however, sometimes I wonder. If the EU makes there fixes with a TARP like program this will be bullish for the markets and gold which would mean that we will have to wait for another black swan to create a buying opportunity? I don't know. Trying to figure this all out. It's not as easy as it use to be as im trying to determine what is low vs. what is high.  Because we are in the volatility phase...how low can things go and when do you sell to replenish your cash?  

Ive been thinking of selling some of my producers just to put more cash aside and wait for another buying opp.  I'm learning the art of patience.  This thing is not going manic anytime soon (as defined as the next 6 months)  And I believe that maybe, just maybe, when gold hits $2400 you should be all in.  Until then we are going to get more swings...and probably get those swings up in the 2400 area as well.  But by then maybe the strategy will be to be in all the way and just hold?

I don't know and there are probably different ways of playing it.  On the junior front the best thing, from my perspective, is to buy the good companies with good projects and just add and hold for discoveries or a buy out.  You want to be in some of these, like ITH, they could get bought out and it will provide you with more liquidity to buy other companies on the cheap.

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Keegan

Well it's coming back nicely from it's low earlier this month.  did anyone buy? I did.  You have to buy something when it get's cut in half.  Tax loss season coming. do you have your lists prepared?

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youre right

good  bargain on Keegan at the 4.40 bottom area........ just like a few others   did the exact same thing,all around the same price,charts look almost identical.....Keegan,International Tower Hill, and Premier gold........ all good takeover targets.   according to my newsletter I like to follow. I dont know why casey doesnt have Keegan as one of their picks ...but theyre all moving exactly together like the three musketeers.

and ....need to be careful  moving toward resistance...keegan looks like 6.50-7 area for a pullback to ...??  maybe 5

same with the others...... same resistance profile...... lagging the gold price  chart....

The eliott wave structure in these miners could still be called a wave 4 sideways....even though weve had a clear breakout in spot gold...these miner charts ,lagging just enough still like they are,  still look like a wave 4 zone..... which  allows for a wave 5 to retest the october 4 lows or make new lows. It feels unlikely as I type this.... but  the wave structure in this latest rally in these miners....even if it is a breakout and a new wave beginning uptred recovery style.... would be now called a wave 1 or at least a wave A of an ABC  'correction rally' ...and in either case,wave 1 or wave A, it forecasts a pullback coming soon,in the next few trading days.  Typically I look for the area of a 50% fib level as a target zone here for the pullback.

That looks like Keegan at 5.25 area

Tower Hill at  5 area

and Premier gold at 5.10 area.....by the look of candlestick  price movement...Keegan looks the strongest, then Tower Hill and Premier looks the weaker of the musketeers.

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Keegan again

If gold get's back to 1800-1900 range I think Keegan will breakthrough that resistence.  Their pre-feasability study was based on $1100 gold (1050?)  So 1600, 1700, 1800, 1900 gold looks even better for Keegan. I'm wondering still if someone will take them over. Sources I've spoken to don't think so.  But think about it.  It's almost at a 50% discount, they have @$200-250M in cash.  Unless there are some issues with potentially mining this stuff, then that could be an issue. I'll be long gone before then.  Playing Keegan for a double or close to it and will move on.

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I add this forum my google reader

Cool post it is actually. My mother has been awaiting for this tips.

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Bargains follow up

For the  cool headed gamblers..... watching EAIAF (east asia minerals) reach a bottom and stabilize around 50 cents..... went soaring the last few weeks  up to 1.15 for a cool double.  

Now,  if it pulls back to the 75-80 cent area, could be considered a bargain to  buy some.  and the target would be to sell at 3 dollars....the 200 MA

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