So - Does Everyone Think Silver Is Doomed?

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Kenscott
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So - Does Everyone Think Silver Is Doomed?

On one hand I am reading about Sprott selling off and this being bad. On the other hand, I am reading about a possible shortage of silver at the Comex.

As for the technicals, the short-term does not seem to look positive but then there are those saying the short-term is being manipulated to counter the long-term.

So, is silver doomed or not?

Personally, I think the sentiment is that a slower world economy will lead to less demand and thus lower prices for silver. I feel this sentiment is a fundamental likely to show itself sooner than later in the technical side of things.

I know the importance of technical analysis, but it seems sometimes the fundamentals are overlooked in favor of the technicals. Today, I feel both should be carefully examined before making any type of a move in the PM arena.

So, do you agree silver is on the doomed downslide or do you think otherwise?

Kenscott

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:08
hpx
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Err, why would silver be

Err, why would silver be "doomed"? Will it drop? I think it could. It could possibly go all the way back to the breakout a year ago, meaning around $21. Does this mean that everyone should panic and sell their silver and miners?

.....doesn't that question sort of answer itself? If you buy silver for the reason that the monetary system will collapse, who cares what the price is in fiat? I haven't heard about Sprott selling, and can't find any links to it. I will say that I sold most of my Silver Wheaton recently, because I hope to buy it back at half price. I did not sell it because silver is "doomed". 

mouser
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Sprott sees more value in miners

Friday, September 30, 2011

Eric Sprott Sold 374,012 Shares of PSLV Three Days Prior to Latest Silver Smash

 
We have discovered some interesting data regarding Eric Sprott's PSLV.  Silver bugs remember in May that Sprott sold off a large portion of his holdings in PSLV almost immediately prior to the silver raid- yet explained the sale by stating that he was merely taking advantage of the premium to NAV to roll the proceeds back into physical silver and miners.
Well, The Doc has discovered that Eric Sprott or Entities Managed by Sprott Asset Management made another large sale of PSLV on 9/19- merely 3 days prior to the cartel silver raid that began 9/22 which dropped silver by $15 over 2.5 trading days.
To be fair- PSLV's premium to spot silver had again crept up above 20% in the days preceding Sprott's latest sale, so its possible this was just incredibly lucky timing to take advantage of the PSLV premium. 
Per Harvey's site on 9/19:

Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV stayed at a positive 21.1% to NAV sept 19.2011

Eric likely seeing more upside in some of the good miners  than in PSLV or physical silver, which are subject to Wall Street and CME/LME games. I have to agree, as Miners will be reporting the next Q here coming up shortly and many will again show huge profits with gold hitting new records over the summer and silver grinding away at near 40$ for most of the last Q.

That will be an alltime average  high for those two metals mined in the 3 months to sept 2011,  and will reflect in the earnings.

The fact that Sprott's PSLV trades at a premium , while the SLV etf trades at a discount tells you something about who the market trusts with their silver. PSLV likley has all the silver they are supposed to have, SLV very likley has shorted most of their thru their custodian JPM.

stoneeh
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It's just as doomed as it was

It's just as doomed as it was around 10$ in the winter of 08.

pailin
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stoneeh wrote: It's just as

stoneeh wrote:

It's just as doomed as it was around 10$ in the winter of 08.

I largely agree with this but "opportunity" to excel always exists for the nimble:

1. Possible spike down to 21 or ??? during low vol hours - I'll be there to buy from 24 hr dealers that mark their inventory against spot, places like Provident and Apmex.

2. There's no guarantee we won't be down in this area (26-34) for a while. No reason to go "all in" today. If you get paid every 2 weeks, just stack on that schedule - every 2 weeks (or whatever works for you). Use the charts to identify short term dips and buy those. Saving $5 is still a free Subway sandwich for lunch. So why not? The silver isn't going to disappear overnight. It just might get a lot more expensive. So don't be cute and wait for the bottom, just DCA in a bit at a time and your avg in 3 months or 6 will be pretty nice.

The charts can be of value to stackers too. Buy the bottoms and sell (or at least don't buy) the tops. EZ.

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Dr Durden
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As BotherJohnF has explained

As BotherJohnF has explained in his videos, silver is a byproduct of base metal mining and with inventories at all-time highs and China slowing demand for them, silver supply actually goes down. It doesn't seem like industrial or investment demand has slowed down all. So that's obviously bullish for the fundo's.

However, the Cartel has told us what their stance is and that's to limit the availability of silver to the little guys. If you don't think they're doing you a favor by allowing you to get a fatter stack for less fiat, then you're a fool IMHO.

As I've posted here a few times now, if silver behaves exactly like it did in 2008 with the same relative retracement and gain over the same amount of time, we go to $18 and then to $100 in the next three years. You don't have 3 years and half as much fait per once? Then maybe this game is not for you.

It all comes down to risk tolerance. What are your personal odds that we take out $26, $21, $18, $10? I've made lots of bets that we'd never be below $30 again, but I started buying at $17 and thought the near term top was $25 at the time. One can sure get worked up in the short term and forget the long term quite easily. I'm pretty confident in 30 years from now I'll look back and laugh at the ridiculously low prices I stacked at.

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Lord Koos
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Depends on your time frame

I sold most of my silver into gold over the last 6 months as I saw the ratio drop to 40 and below, and I'm glad I did. I traded in my last 100 oz bar for gold just a week before this latest crash, I'm probably more lucky than smart but I saw the way it was trading sideways for so long & it didn't look good to me for the short and intermediate term. I think that if we are entering an even worse/longer phase of the depression, it's going to take quite awhile for silver to come back to anywhere near $40.  At this point, I ilke gold but if the ratio gets crazy wide, like back above 60 I'll probably be a buyer again. In the long run I'm sure silver is good but I'm an old guy so I don't think decades out when investing at this point.

lilbromarky1
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Something really big is

Something really big is brewing.   This selloff was triggered by something big happening behind the scenes that noone knows about yet.  

Silver is going to pop to the upside and leave everyone scratching their heads trying to figure it out.

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Xeno
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Well, whether it was phyzz or

Well, whether it was phyzz or paper that hit the market is certainly a question and one that'll probably be answered in relatively short order (no pun intended).

Made a few good trades with AGQ and 1 bad one. It's a bitch to get a handle on lately since the good moves in the underlying have been getting made before or after U.S. market hours which is my limitation.

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Lord Koos wrote: I sold most

Lord Koos wrote:

I sold most of my silver into gold over the last 6 months as I saw the ratio drop to 40 and below, and I'm glad I did. I traded in my last 100 oz bar for gold just a week before this latest crash, I'm probably more lucky than smart but I saw the way it was trading sideways for so long & it didn't look good to me for the short and intermediate term.

Very good defensive trades out of silver and into gold, but 200 DMA theory (of which I'm a proponent) says it's now time to be heavier in any of the other PMs than gold. Swap time was when gold was in 1800 territory, far above it's 200 DMA. But not out of gold completely, just time to put more risk back on as the other three, particularly palladium are very cheap. Then as gold languishes, you swap back into it as the others overshoot.

http://www.runtogold.com/2010/07/200-day-moving-average/

Waiting for GSR 60 may not happen and you could get a situation like last fall-spring when silver went nuts and gold really didn't. If you're trying to pick up some speed...you'd miss out on that.

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lilbromarky1
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pailin wrote: Lord Koos

pailin wrote:

Lord Koos wrote:

I sold most of my silver into gold over the last 6 months as I saw the ratio drop to 40 and below, and I'm glad I did. I traded in my last 100 oz bar for gold just a week before this latest crash, I'm probably more lucky than smart but I saw the way it was trading sideways for so long & it didn't look good to me for the short and intermediate term.

Very good defensive trades out of silver and into gold, but 200 DMA theory (of which I'm a proponent) says it's now time to be heavier in any of the other PMs than gold. Swap time was when gold was in 1800 territory, far above it's 200 DMA. But not out of gold completely, just time to put more risk back on as the other three, particularly palladium are very cheap. Then as gold languishes, you swap back into it as the others overshoot.

http://www.runtogold.com/2010/07/200-day-moving-average/

Waiting for GSR 60 may not happen and you could get a situation like last fall-spring when silver went nuts and gold really didn't. If you're trying to pick up some speed...you'd miss out on that.

Good stuff pailin

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kenahcus2112
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SIlver Doomed?!

If you really don't know for yourself if it's a good or bad investment, get out.  There are other ways to make money.  Personally, I believe in what I'm doing so I will only change how I do things....But the fundamentals of my investing will stay the same because I believe in PM's and don't believe in the U.S. dollar and economy.  I will keep stacking when I can and I will keep buying and selling miners.

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Silver and gold are mostly

Silver and gold are mostly bets on economic collapse/hyperinflation...; pallidium is simply a bet on the automobile industry (big use is for catalytic converters). The major portion of the population is hurting and are going to be buying fewer cars.

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lilbromarky1 wrote: Something

lilbromarky1 wrote:

Something really big is brewing.   This selloff was triggered by something big happening behind the scenes that noone knows about yet.  

Silver is going to pop to the upside and leave everyone scratching their heads trying to figure it out.

You think there was more to it than the deflation panic after FOMC?

Agree on the silver pop to the upside - when a thread with this title shows up it is probably a good signal to get long.

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