Silver Wheaton - this has me REALLY worried

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hpx
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Silver Wheaton - this has me REALLY worried

I've been keeping an eye on this for quite a while, since I own a lot of Silver Wheaton. Can some of you turdites try to shed some light on this? Am I just paranoid, or do we have the MOTHER OF ALL HEAD AND SHOULDERS staring us in the face?

(from here http://lewrockwell.com/orig12/maund1.1.1.html)

And since Silver Wheaton is somewhat of a bellwhether-stock for the entire sector, does that imply ....... what, exactly? Look, I hate to bring any crap to the table, but could someone at least comment on it?

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:08
Sterling
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Are you leveraged?

Are you leveraged?

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madcow
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if that happened i would hope

if that happened i would hope to know to get out before it hit 3$..... cause i would rebuy the shit out of it if it got that low. Unless i lose everything on the way down angry

I dont know jack about TA tho, so someone can answer your question.

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No, don't have a leveraged

No, don't have a leveraged position, I just own a lot of the stock.

I'm starting to think that maybe it would be prudent to lighten up on silver, possibly shifting to gold, just to see what the hell is going to happen. I cannot believe I am actually considering silver going even lower, but at this point ..... I guess I'm starting to chicken out.

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I'd ride it out unless you

I'd ride it out unless you need the money.  But that's just me.  My average in SLW is just below $6.00 so I'm still up.  If it drops much lower, I'll be buying more.  I'm not very good at timing except for by chance.

GL

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ridereuropean

The main concern i have with the miners (and the reason i took profits when things fell apart last week) is that they are still correlated to the stock market, and in the next few months it seems clear that stocks are heading lower.  i got out because i'm a bit greedy, wanted to lock in my profits and buy back at a lower price when the dust settles in november.  of course if you can stomach the volatility and won't sell no matter what the next few months bring, then eventually, as we all know, these babies are headed much higher. if you're nervous and not completely committed to riding this out, then i'd take profits now and wait for the next dip to get back in. that said, it is possible in the next few days we'll see a little run up given the short-term relief in europe and some rare "good" dgp and job numbers (yeah right!), so you might want to hold a few more days, but i'd def. be out by oct 7 employment report if you want to log some profits on this leg. also, i like many here in turdland, find that playing with paper is always easier if you've got a little of the real stuff under the mattress. good luck!

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it depends

it depends on alot of factors. Probably one big factor is ....  what is your cost basis price you own SLW at? If you bought it very low...like Sterling....6 dollars  ?!?!?! yikes thats  an amazing price. you wouldnt worry what SLW does at all.  But thats very different than say,if you just bought it at 30 or 35 this year....then one could be nervous looking at the chart.

The chart does show this  "head and shoulders" pattern and traditionally that is a bearish  pattern....BUT  I'm seeing experts explain now,about all chart reading....we need to realize that in this manipulated market, the engineers are also looking at the charts and  as they manipulate stock prices, they  may be 'painting' the charts to  look a certain way,to  become a double top or a head and shoulders...they can get very precise in what theyre trying to make a chart look like. It makes sense because many traders and investors are looking at the technical analysis of charts.  The problem  we have to consider is the  'manipulation factor'. and take it into consideration when looking at a chart.

Maybe these patterns are less important   in this regard and whats more important is the basic price levels,and support /resistance levels. I find that fibonacci levels do still work well for finding targets.  What remains true is that when you see  these support levels ,it means alot of traders/investors have bought/or sold the stock at this price point.  This is where they will sell to break even or buy to own more  at what they think is a good price.

Looking at the chart from the crash lows of 2009 .....Forget about the bottoms of 2,3,4 dollars.....start looking at the Critical First major pivot reversal in July 2009 low....which was the  Energetic Bottom for the market. SLW looks to be around 7 dollars.

From 7 dollars  area(7.50)  it  achieved its next essential stable zone at 15....thats a Double.  its what you expect to see .

Then from a base at 15 last year  it went  to establish  the 22 area....(22-17 ) then it established 27 area as the next zone.  and then....as we look at it....expecting to see the 30 area as important zone....would be another Double from 15....SLW blew past 30 and started becoming volatile and hyper soaring to 37 and 42 and then collapsed down to 30-28 area....Then soaring hyperbolic up to 45 -47 top , collapsing back to 30 this summer then back up,alot of volatility  to reach 42 area and create this Head and shoulders we see.  Its a top formation. even showing the classic 3 spike tops   as a sign  of the top. Yes....SLW  could easily demonstrate the correction back to  the major support zones in the coming weeks/months....that would be  the 30 area,  then the 27-25 area, and then the 22 -20 area. 

Also this chart you show is the Daily chart. Its important to also look at a weekly chart. The weekly chart 200 MA is currently at 19....it will move toward 20 in the coming weeks.....by the time any further decline in SLW price happens....the 200 MA might join it around the 22 area. I think this would become the support floor for SLW. 

Remember where this stock came from last year it was a 15 dollar stock ....a major miner .... the Babe Ruth of silver miners...its a  very important stock to own as a core.  It Tripled  to 45 from 15. !! 

If you start at the July 2009 price point of  7 dollar (7.50)  you can call the move to  45 .... a 6 bagger !! Thats an amazing  gain  in a short time.  So it should be considered 'normal' to see a correction to  normal levels of a bull trending stock....an upward slant of about 40 degrees angle......thats all we need to see. and if you look at the weekly chart and look at the 100 MA thats the angle of incline that is a nice uptrending movement....theres nothing wrong with SLW on the weekly chart ..... and the 100 MA on the weekly chart is right at ....   27.50  Thats my target to buy SLW....to see it hold support there..... and start buying around 27-25 area. and if it falls to the 22-20 area I would buy more.

A total distance from 7 to 47 ,bottom to top......would yield a 50% Fibonacci correction to 27  The stable balance point  for SLW is 27. The 25 - 27 zone.  and this also makes sense because the Fundamentals of the company,their assets, etc,as described by their CEO has stated SLW as having a valuation of $50 . its a 50 dollar stock.   So that puts 25 dollars right in the middle as a base....and a bargain. 

This head and shoulders pattern is trying hard to make us see 30  as the neckline, 30 area as the base.....But I think the greater base and more magnetic zone for correction is not 30.    it is 27. and 25    the 27-25 zone.

I can feel 30 is still too expensive to buy SLW. the bargain doesnt start until 27.50 or lower.

There has been all this  eagerness in the precious metals bull market to  jump on the train and  be part of the soaring gains , witness  last fall when almost  Every miner went soaring .

In this currencycrisis/ economic crisis,geopolitical economic crisis, where the salvation  we are told will be Precious metals and miners....and  maybe oil, or other commodities. and maybe these pundits will prove right.....But Never is it  'a good thing' to see a stock go hyperbolic(unless you are skillful enough to sell it at the top and patient enough to wait for the best bottom  after that to buy.)

SLW is a core stock to buy and hold for the long term. Its not a penny  junior miner to trade  like speculating. You  would buy it 2 years ago at 7 dollars and hold ...and buy more at 22,25,27 and hold.  This is what the chart shows.

IF I had bought alot of  it at 7,and I was a skillful enough trader to see the top at 47 or 45....I would want to sell a portion for profit at 45 but hold the rest forever..... and maybe buy more at  20,or 25.

If the world and the stock markets completely collapse like 2008 ....and SLW falls back to 15.... thats a time to rebuild  the core portfolio . SLW would be one of my core holdings.  But I surely wouldnt buy it now at 30 or 32.  I'll wait for 27 and 25 is even better.

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Damn good analysis Sheeple! I

Damn good analysis Sheeple!

I started averaging in as low as $3.50 back in Nov/Dec '08.  I didn't nail the bottom as I was waiting for some confirmation.  With the benefit of hindsight, I wish I had dumped more into the stock but I decided to spread it out a bit.

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rock collector
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SLW I'm riding it out too!

SLW is a great company with a great business model.
Highly profitable too!
It's PE will drop pretty fast and providing you are not significantly leveraged, you can definitely hold on til things get better and earnings catch up.
SLW been back and forth from just below 30 to the low/mid 40's.
FWIW  I am holding onto my 800 shares. 
In addition to SLW's existing silver streams, I understand that Goldcorp's Penasquito mine will be up an running in 2012 and Silver Wheaton will get a big chunk of a world class mine's increasing resource base.
It's been said that SLW got quite the bargain on this deal and it's about to pay off. See below.
"In April 2007, Silver Wheaton agreed to purchase 25% of all the silver produced from Peñasquito, over its entire mine life. Since completion of the agreement, silver reserves at the mine have increased 92% and attributable silver production to Silver Wheaton has increased by 73% or 67 million ounces, to a total of 159 million ounces. This does not take into account the potential for underground mine production, which is only just beginning to be recognized and is likely to result in significant additional silver production in the years ahead. 

After a ramp-up period, Peñasquito is forecast to produce an average of approximately 28 million ounces of silver annually over an initial 23 year mine life, of which Silver Wheaton is to receive 25% or approximately seven million ounces of silver annually."

 

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SLW and SVM

.....good info rock collector. alll the better for SLW

Sterling,  I   should be jealous to have SLW at 6. i cant even think about that....what blunder i did last year....i owned a small chunk of SLW at 13........ and thinking i was smart,as a still somewhat green trader,  i sold it at 22 because i thought it would correct  back to 15.....  where i would buy more  and  of course it never did go to 15. it held at 17,and i was left in a big cloud of dust.

The second worst thing to agonize over, next to watching a stock plummet down  and taking away all your gains.... is to be watching a stock  you just sold go soaring  without you.

but they say theres always the next  chance will come along to hit a homerun. and  for now that stock isnt SLW

but  one of the tidbits of 'expert insight' I  read in one of my newsletters last year,a very sharp gold and silver analyst, said that SVM  Silvercorp has a good chance to Become the next Silver Wheaton.

I do like SVM .

and in fact,as their CEO stated,this  'alfred little' and all  fraudulent short attack campaign  against SVM ,which SVM is  demolishing piece by piece,and will finish them off in court....will only make SVM  that much stronger going forward. 

this week  SVM has held up well. among the best performing miners.

it might be  a slim chance now to buy SVM  below 7.

I still have some stink bids in at 6 and 5.50.

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