Sheeple's miners analysis

Well..... silver and the miners made a decent recovery today ..... if you consider  moves like Minco silver collapsing 20% at the low and closing down 'only' 5.6% and GPL slamming down 10% and closing only down  1% .

But that doesnt mean All is Well by any means.

It was a down day for the miners for sure.  The sense of a bounce rally from hideous lows can be a false comfort,where folks are desperate to  see any comfort  off a  continuation of last weeks free fall.

Silver looks like a low at 26  that everyone will proclaim as the bottom.

But looking at all the individual miner stocks....many display lower bottom zones  and prices that could become magnets in another wave down....even if just a relatively small drop lower..... like  Fortuna silver....held today around 5 but this summers low was around 4.50 and a left shoulder zone  where 4.50 is right in the middle of that....it could easily target 4.50 in another retest of lows.  5 is not such a great bargain for fortuna silver.

Gold corp  hit a low today at 44.46 and bounced  to close UP 1.2% not too bad....BUT now has to contend with a 200 MA around 48.40 as resistance...and GG has a left shoulder  zone that covers a big territory going down as low as 41 and 39(the low from this January past)....the 44 price point is in the middle of that shoulder zone. GG could hold up here at 44 or ....OR it could drop if there is another wave down ,drop to target 42,41,40 area

When the market is sailing along in an uptrend and the miners are all looking like blue sky above....its easy to  be positive and agressive in picking the 'lows' But thats not the wave and sentiment happening now....by hook or by crook, we are watching the miners get slammed ,seemingly at will,   what looked so strong last year and much of this summer....now does This,during the traditionally 'strong season' for the miners?!  Its worse than going to Vegas. Buy the miners at your own peril if you think a slam down this big is as bad as it could go.....  I'd rather err on the side of caution and  anticipate one more leg down....maybe not a big move but some kind of retest that takes  alot of miners to their next support level down.  Where we can buy GPL for 2.20  or 2.00 instead of  2.50

GPL low of the year was 1.78 in january past ,with a left shoulder zone  going from 2.90 down to 1.78

2.35 is in the middle. A low here today at 2.50 looks ok.....but  a drop lower  could be anticipated  in this zone....I like GPL better at 2.10  than 2.60   If the global economy is in some kind of currency war,banking collapse, etc.... this kind of pressure selling in the miners could go on for longer. What looks like a bottom  to the eye  might not be the lowest bottom right now.

When silver was looking great and strong a short while ago at 40....and folks were saying it would drop maybe to 38 and people here were Laughing at those doomers who were predicting 38..... 38 !! I myself was anticipating maybe 36 and 34 or 33 as a bottom...... Look at  what happened. 26 !!  Those few who were proclaiming a collapse to 26....were outright laughed at. called trolls.... ridiculed......   It got slammed to 26.

Now look at AG ...... First majestic and compare the chart side by side with spot silver. Spot silver slammed down to 26  makes a double bottom with the silver low back in January of this year. Look at AG chart.....that same january was the pivotal bottom in AG at 10 dollars !!   This means either AG is so strong that it defies gravity and  Held support today ,at 16.19...and now hovers around its 50 MA ....(weekly 50MA) AG chart shows a left shoulder  from 16 down to 10  ,with key pivot points at 14 and 12 and a basic shoulder at 15 at least.....AG could drop down  to any of these price points in the next leg down.

So this means either AG is so stronng that it is NOT correlating to the spot silver collapse to 26....and by golly it   will show them who's boss..... or AG has  some other trick up its sleeve and  who knows what will happen in the coming weeks.

On the daily chart .AG has its 200 MA at 18.36 and a gap to fill around 19....TA says that this could be a resistance and IF we do get some kind ofr retest down to the lows  it will start from the resistance  at the top zone (18.40-19 area)

So its too soon to start  giggling like the worst is over...for the miners. Now the next step is to watch what they do at these resistance points  overhead....  it could take a week to reach the resistance and then a week to retest the bottoms.....and if the powers that be intend to make another big slam down....they will propel it  From the overhead resistance areas....like a bounce down from the 200 MA or the gap fills....and  in this chart of AG...I see the 14 dollar price point sure looks like a magnet to me.  I'd rather start buying AG at 14 and 12 as a long term core holding.    

The task now....is this. After seeing the last great slam down hit bottom on friday.....  and monday....and today's movement going upward .....  a bottom level appears to be set..... If this stays the low in the coming few days....the wave action becomes a push Higher to test the resistance levels where you will find some critical Moving Average ,like the 200 daily or 50 weekly....And a Gap to fill...and a number of pivot points across the chart  that shows some level of resistance where Price ought to Test.

That is the next thing to be watching for....the resistance area and how strong or weak is the price action at this level.

After that....the next thing to watch is  to see IF price drops down hard and retests the big lows we just suffered. OR whether it stops and holds ....somewhere in the middle....which is a 50% fib zone.

IF it stops and holds in the middle and  makes another good move UP then we might have found the big low...has been set....at silver 26 and gold 1530 ish.

I think we were both  expecting what ended up happening.... as down went the metals and miners today....sooner than I expected. I thought it would make at least  a 2 or 3 day effort to reach higher levels....like silver 36 and gold 17.30 area

Those areas are Still the upside targets for resistance....but now I see the wave structure may be playing out in a combination of ABC  waves...so far it  made  a half move up  to  33.50  and then slam back down to whats looking  like a  retest  of  the lows  ....but wait a second on this..... If  Elliott wave structure can be relied upon here, it  could hold around 29 or even 28 area and reverse back up on its way to target the 200 MA at 36. This whole wave structure would be an ABC wave.

It might become a 5 wave structure and not an ABC depending on how it plays out..... but the target I see is 36 for silver before the next major movement in some direction.  So price action might be choppy  for the rest of the week.  There seems to be a 50/50 chance for either target to be reached first  .... the retest of 26-27  bottom area or the test of 36 top .

If silver goes to hit 36 and the resistance at the 200 MA  The next move from there ought to be a bounce off the 200 MA and drop down to head lower....and at which point would come the big test for silver strength and buyers  deciding to buy or stay on the sidelines....where silver would need to hold support  around the 31 area......30-31.  Holding support there  gives it momentum to retest 36 and break higher. Failing at 31-30 and especially 29 is likely to send  silver to retest 26-27 area or make lower lows.

All of which is just anticipating the price levels I'm watching as the coming days  play out. It is looking like the target of 36 might need several days to play out.  and at least a few days after that to retest the 26 area IF it was going to. So now the next time frame to be watching for as a 'buying the dips opportunity' might not be for a good week.  More patience  may be in order.

My plan ,as always, is to only buy  at the lowest lows  I can  get. There might only be 3 a year. We had one in January, one in June/july, one at august 8, and one now.....Could we actually get more major dips  in the coming month? Looking at previous years...you can see we only get a few each year.

Kaminak looks interesting to watch these days. The  most central price base this year has been 3 dollars. but  the wave going uptrend  had been  setting  lows around 2.50 to hold.

I'm looking for this wacky fall season of  price manipulation,global economic chaos,and  still this is the shopping season....looking for bargains to   happen. Watching Kaminak....the easiest  price target to anticipate is a retest of 2.50 but my gut feeling has an eye on 2.00 even as Kaminak slides on down somehow.It has that vulnerable junior miner feel to it.

a good bargain at 2 dollars. 

For first time buy.... 2.50 is decent.

What I'm doing these days is reevaluating all my miners,focusing on my cost basis on each of them

looking at the charts and seeing where the overhead resistance now is...(theres alot)

and looking to see which miners I need to trim a little ,some of the tranches that I bought too soon and paid a little too much. Might as well  improve my cost basis if I can.

I got burned buying East Asia Minerals going down  like it did. I own way too much and need to be very patient with it. Theyre making the necessary changes to move forward  toward the permitting they need and getting back on track.  It could take a year before I can break even .

Core Holdings,like EGO,SVM,GG,AG, FSM, KGC, and some others  I wont sell at the tops, but will buy more at the greater bottoms. My bottoms,I mean very low bottoms.....not EGO at 16 or 15....EGO at 13 and 12,maybe a nibble at 14.

First majestic not at 14 but 12.60 and 10.60, ...11.50 .... If the PTB are going to slam down the metals and miners like they seem able to do , then I want  great bargains , not just good bargains.

SLW at 30 is ok...... but a great bargain is SLW at ....22,23,    25 tops.

Where would you like to buy Goldcorp?  45 ?  how about 40 and 38 and 35 again. why not?

As a rule for finding a bargain target area....I like to at least see where the stock price was back on July 2009 ....that was a Pivotal price point for the stock  market rally....and acts as support now.  I dont look at all at the march 2009 floor....That was panic driven, if not manipulated as well....the real 'bottom' energy level in my view ....where the sentiment changed and the  uptrend resumed....is the July 2009 low.

Some stocks have already hit that low or even went lower....  worth noticing.

But it serves me as a benchmark...and I often draw trendlines from there. and these trendlines show a more accurate picture to my eyes.

I wrote a long update of info and analysis and Turd's site  shut down before I could send it.

I cant write it all over again.

Foremost thoughts in my analysis these days are ....... Be patient,

dont front run the  markets too much... if at all.

When I think Ive seen the bottom at the end of a wave......expect a lower bottom still.  plan for a lower bottom.

maybe next week or next month or next spring. but a lower bottom.

I was thinking the August 8th bottom could be the summer low.....but  here you see....comes october 4th and a lower bottom.

and maybe even another lower bottom ...next week ?

or not.

Casey research recommends buying only one portion at a time, and average down as  bargain prices go lower. Its been a workable strategy .  Greed is what makes a person think that he has seen the lowest bottom and he buys  a full  position. now locked into it...what happens when price drops another leg or two more down.... do you buy more and now you own too much? or do you  not buy and miss out on a decent bargain,If you buy more, and  you do this too often, now youre wasting your dry powder to use in a great crash situation. ?  it all becomes more complicated  and makes the portfolio messy.

IF the powers in control are managing to collapse the miners and metals like they are doing....it seems very logical to take a stance that you will wait ,and wait some more,  be more patient and selective in only buying what  becomes a big drop in  price.    to levels you never expected  back in the spring.  like even now, after gold being at 1900 and being slammed down to 1530 and hanging around 1630....if you think gold will definitely hold above 1530,or 1500...... look at the chart and see the greater low at 1470 and below that find 1420 area.   Theres nothing so magical about 1500 that  it cant be plunged down to the double bottom and that would be 1470 area.  and if That price panic sell overshoots 1470 , we could see 1420. and if there is some kind of 'agreement' among governments and nations to control the metals and miners for a period of time....then price willfall or rise, exactly where they want it to go,and when they want it to get there. 

technical analysis  sees target zones around 1470 as a double bottom.

Right now the powers are just screwing around at 1630 gold and 30.80 silver....... and it feels like they are just playing with us like  a set up for the next  robbery.

I remember hearing how folks here were going all in when gold pulled back to 1800 or silver pulled back to 42. what a joke was played on us, right?   Now we know what a rigged game looks like. 

You think 1530 or 1600 gold has magical power?   They will bounce it off 1600 or 1550 and shoot it up only to whipsaw it back down and Thru.... target 1460. 1440.  1420.  If you were China and India, where would you want to load up?   This spring and last fall, it seemed there were no real pullbacks at all.  now they sit back and let the prices collapse like this?

The little retail guy,like us, is a meaningless market influence. Its the big players that are making and moving markets.

and it is looking very unpredictable these days. that must be by design. 

So I have my stink bids in to buy more PSLV at 12  area and PHYS at 11.75 area

SLW at 22 area

GG at 35 area

AG at 10 area

EGO at 13-12 area

a few juniors to keep an eye on too.

and I'm only buying one portion at a time. 1x .   1 tranche.  just in case.

The greater plan for the rest of the year is to hope that  the miners make one more good run to a decent top area where I can trim some profits and break even on a few things  and sell a few things  by christmas. and raise enough cash to be ready for  the great crash of 2012. which could be starting these days for all we know.

the worst mistake I can make right now is to keep buying these dips,and  spend  too much of my remaining free cash , and have too little left    IF we get that crash, and I wont be able to buy SLW at 12 or GG at 25. AG at 7  ....etc etc

You gotta find a way to raise cash and have it set aside  ready.

I DONT KNOW HOW TO MAKE THE IMAGE BIGGER . HELP? anyone ?

....well its been  quite a show.... seeing the breakout in gold   and silver these last 3 days.

(The charts I post are too small to see well. and  I dont know how to make them bigger,so all I can do here is  give you the numbers and the key points to look for.)

In technical analysis, there are some standard  tools and indicators that remain  essential to look at .  the 50 MA and the 200 MA. are  important to analyze  Both on the weekly chart and the daily chart. Its always important to look at both weekly and daily.

These Key moving averages are coming into critical play Now  in  the gold and silver charts

Just looking at gold daily shows the 50 MA at 1745 area . Bollinger band top (another important tool, shows the top line around 1727   ...Stochastics and RSI both show overbought now.   wave structure with candlesticks could produce a little more upside toward 1760-1780 targets but  the pullback is getting ripe   now.  From a low  at the beginning of the wave structure around 1590 area to the current top , in 3 waves so far gives us a total move of around 150 -190 points.....the 50% fibonacci  target for this move would give us a pullback to the support area around  1660-1680 area.   everything in the gold chart is pointing to this target ...these two targets 1760-1780 and 1660-1680.  right now  I would hazard a guess that price will  hit Both targets in the coming weeks.  either the top target in the next day or two and then the pullback to 1680 or  the pullback now in the next few days to 1680-1660 area  followed by another wave up to retest the highs around 1750 . 

Its always a best guess.... news events ,whether real of manipulated will trigger movement direction, just as they have been doing.  Its not a cause for concern if price pullsback below 1680 and goes as low as 1640 area..... but from There, needs to be watched to see how  far back Up it returns....and IF it were to stall and fail at 1720 the next time....Then you have a downward momentum  taking over at that time. which could retest the lows of 1600.  Hard to imagine  that concept after seeing gold soaring suddenly full of life. But  remember ,price action is dictated by the powers in control of markets and news ,and orchestrated in relation to  the dollar , the europe situation,  oil, and the wizard behind the curtain.

Solid support holding around 1660-1680 and moving back up and thru 1720 and retesting 1780 is bullish for  gold holding at these prices above 1700 and for the bottom to be in  above 1600 .....during this season and wave structure.

More later.

If   (everythings always an IF)..... If the metals and miners are being 'controlled' and suppressed this fall season...as ,well, they dont look like they are soaring...although the month of october was a good move up.  But it all feels a bit rigged doesnt it?  It doesnt seem organic.  Its always tricky. 

But IF this season proves disappointing compared to last year at this time....   as we wind up thru christmas. ....typically there seems to be a selloff in January, a nice bottom in early february and a good wave up to the end of April. 

If the good miners are underperforming pricewise this fall...and now we are getting some correction, which is ok, and after this correction we see one more good wave Up to finish out the year.....  I would be looking to take some profits , sell the break evens, and prepare for the downwave  in the first quarter of 2012....looking to wait for the  1st Q bottom..... February seems to be  the timing in recent years..... but watch out for tricks.   If we could find a giant survey of gold and silver and miner bugs who thought this fall season  would see miners and metals soaring again like they did last year....??? how many folks were expecting another   big season for the metals and miners now?? I would say  Alot.   Now take that disappointment into next year ...while we watch the miners and metals trading sideways  for the coming season,expect the january sell off as usual, and that gets me starting to look  at charts going forward into next spring. Moving the timline forward....and being patient now.  getting over the seasonal disappointment...and preparing for the next strong wave down,yes down,.....maybe commencing in January..... maybe continuing past february, just for kicks and tricks, and finally a low in select good miners, that represent a bargain  of some sort.  As part of my own plan to accumulate good miners at good prices..... whats a good price in your favorite miners?

One of the next  miners I want to buy  is Guyana Goldfields. Whats a decent price? the 200 MA is just above 6 and I think thats where I really want to buy , but 7 looks ok....and oddly enough, the chart lines I see are showing a patient waiting until next spring.

I see other miner charts starting to look similar. 

One of the big things that transpired this summer and fall in the miners for me, is that what first appeared to be a fair bargain , after the collapse in May.... turns out to not be a good entry price  after the next collapses in august and  late september. 

Thats your tricky game for you.  I think this aspect of the game will Always be happening.

IF we get a global market crash, like 2008...... Guyana Goldfields wont be a bargain at 6 ....it would become a 4 dollar stock all over again. 

You want to buy SVM at 9 be my guest. I  dont want to even buy it at 8.   maybe 7 in another collapse ...but 6 or 5 would be better....safer. 

I'm  learning to hate this casino game. 

Even though the metals and thus the miners are in a bull market.....    I think its critical to Only buy Lows. the lowest lows.

And even upon  these summer lows of August 8 and October 4....I bought very few things. they werent low enough still.

Watch list includes....First majestic at 11 , Fortuna silver  at  4 area,maybe 4.50 , Avion gold at  1.30 in the spring 2012. I really hate to think of taking some profits in Avion this december but   look at the chart. If hedge funds sell it year end....it might   pullback alot. Avion is setting up as a head and shoulders,looking very top heavy at 2.40 area. 

Heres Guyana Goldfields chart