Well..... silver and the miners made a decent recovery today ..... if you consider moves like Minco silver collapsing 20% at the low and closing down 'only' 5.6% and GPL slamming down 10% and closing only down 1% .
But that doesnt mean All is Well by any means.
It was a down day for the miners for sure. The sense of a bounce rally from hideous lows can be a false comfort,where folks are desperate to see any comfort off a continuation of last weeks free fall.
Silver looks like a low at 26 that everyone will proclaim as the bottom.
But looking at all the individual miner stocks....many display lower bottom zones and prices that could become magnets in another wave down....even if just a relatively small drop lower..... like Fortuna silver....held today around 5 but this summers low was around 4.50 and a left shoulder zone where 4.50 is right in the middle of that....it could easily target 4.50 in another retest of lows. 5 is not such a great bargain for fortuna silver.
Gold corp hit a low today at 44.46 and bounced to close UP 1.2% not too bad....BUT now has to contend with a 200 MA around 48.40 as resistance...and GG has a left shoulder zone that covers a big territory going down as low as 41 and 39(the low from this January past)....the 44 price point is in the middle of that shoulder zone. GG could hold up here at 44 or ....OR it could drop if there is another wave down ,drop to target 42,41,40 area
When the market is sailing along in an uptrend and the miners are all looking like blue sky above....its easy to be positive and agressive in picking the 'lows' But thats not the wave and sentiment happening now....by hook or by crook, we are watching the miners get slammed ,seemingly at will, what looked so strong last year and much of this summer....now does This,during the traditionally 'strong season' for the miners?! Its worse than going to Vegas. Buy the miners at your own peril if you think a slam down this big is as bad as it could go..... I'd rather err on the side of caution and anticipate one more leg down....maybe not a big move but some kind of retest that takes alot of miners to their next support level down. Where we can buy GPL for 2.20 or 2.00 instead of 2.50
GPL low of the year was 1.78 in january past ,with a left shoulder zone going from 2.90 down to 1.78
2.35 is in the middle. A low here today at 2.50 looks ok.....but a drop lower could be anticipated in this zone....I like GPL better at 2.10 than 2.60 If the global economy is in some kind of currency war,banking collapse, etc.... this kind of pressure selling in the miners could go on for longer. What looks like a bottom to the eye might not be the lowest bottom right now.
When silver was looking great and strong a short while ago at 40....and folks were saying it would drop maybe to 38 and people here were Laughing at those doomers who were predicting 38..... 38 !! I myself was anticipating maybe 36 and 34 or 33 as a bottom...... Look at what happened. 26 !! Those few who were proclaiming a collapse to 26....were outright laughed at. called trolls.... ridiculed...... It got slammed to 26.
Now look at AG ...... First majestic and compare the chart side by side with spot silver. Spot silver slammed down to 26 makes a double bottom with the silver low back in January of this year. Look at AG chart.....that same january was the pivotal bottom in AG at 10 dollars !! This means either AG is so strong that it defies gravity and Held support today ,at 16.19...and now hovers around its 50 MA ....(weekly 50MA) AG chart shows a left shoulder from 16 down to 10 ,with key pivot points at 14 and 12 and a basic shoulder at 15 at least.....AG could drop down to any of these price points in the next leg down.
So this means either AG is so stronng that it is NOT correlating to the spot silver collapse to 26....and by golly it will show them who's boss..... or AG has some other trick up its sleeve and who knows what will happen in the coming weeks.
On the daily chart .AG has its 200 MA at 18.36 and a gap to fill around 19....TA says that this could be a resistance and IF we do get some kind ofr retest down to the lows it will start from the resistance at the top zone (18.40-19 area)
So its too soon to start giggling like the worst is over...for the miners. Now the next step is to watch what they do at these resistance points overhead.... it could take a week to reach the resistance and then a week to retest the bottoms.....and if the powers that be intend to make another big slam down....they will propel it From the overhead resistance areas....like a bounce down from the 200 MA or the gap fills....and in this chart of AG...I see the 14 dollar price point sure looks like a magnet to me. I'd rather start buying AG at 14 and 12 as a long term core holding.