Sheeple's miners analysis

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Sheeple's miners analysis

I placed this forum  entry in ...Gold Miners,.... but ideally should be gold and silver miners. I have alot of them in my portfolio.

Since I spend  many hours a day studying   the market, economic developments,geopolitical developments,trying to get a glimpse of what the wizard behind the curtain is doing..... I come here to Turd's Blog  every day, like we all do, and I thought it might be helpful to folks to share  my thought processes,as I analyze the miners .

I welcome participation from one and all. I'd like it to be a place where we can discuss the miner stocks we own and make some sense of  the investments.

I can only claim proficiency in common sense,logic,a passion for  detailed data  analysis,  charting, and Technical Analysis of charts.(Fibonacci,Elliott wave, etc) Last year  I gained 50 % .This year  has been  break even.

My portfolio is locked within the framework of  IRA's,which means I cant trade puts and calls,(which I know nothing about ),nor can I  day trade.

So I invest in stocks,  the time frame tends to be swing trade  , I study , analyze the long term picture, and hope and pray like we all do.

My technical analysis appears similar to that of Tom L.    I recognized his craftwork   early on .

I like the commentary of many folks here,and hope my  offerings  have some value to  people.

I follow the understandings of people like Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Willie, JS Kim, Turd, Dan Norcini, Jim Sinclair, Jesse's Cafe American,and Nate's Economic Edge, and Zero Hedge. If I  voted ,I would vote for Ron Paul. 

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:20
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My list of miners ....current to sept 23,2011

I'll just make the list for right now.

Senior Gold

GG

AEM

EGO

KGC

Junior Gold

AVGCF

AGXMF

ICMTF

NFRGF

THM

JINFF

JAG

MLRKF

MGH

TWDIF

ADMNF

NTGSF

GXEXF

GGTHF

PRXF

AGIGF

AZK

ARNGF

PIRGF

KGILF

BYVVF

ATADF

Silver miners

SVM

FSM

PAAS

AXU

GGCRF

MISVF

SMNPF

AAU

AG

I also have sizeable positions in PSLV and PHYS

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typo on PRXF

it should say GPRXF (  golden predator)  a good junior miner.

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A peculiar week for the miners

Some random thoughts......

We've seen  a manipulated slam down like this  two other times this year.

in May and  then the first week in August. Both those times, it wasnt quite as shocking  to me because  the summer season is supposed to be a weak time  for stocks and miners. But this time,now, in late September  ,being the strong season for miners, plus after seeing a soaring season last year at this time.... is  just more  surprising  to  see  what happened this week.

But  maybe there's more   to come of this  suppression of the 'strong season' . 

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A core portfolio for a crashing market.

What happened this week in the markets wasnt a crash in the markets....look at the S+P and other indexes.... they held support and closed in the green a little. It was the precious metals and miners sector that collapsed as a single oddity. Biotech sector  was ok too. Nasdaq  made a kind of  bullish engulfing candle today to close the week.

Doesnt seem like a normal market behavior to  see the miners get slammed like this. Many times when the dollar has gone up, the metals and miners dont  always go down.   But the spin theyre saying is ...Oh, the dollar was so strong ther miners and metals tanked. Everybody sold their metals to buy dollars. Right.

But IF there does become  a real market melt down, I'm looking to establish a core of these miners  to  rebuild with when the dust settles.

Silver ..... SLW ,  AG ,  FSM , SMNPF , GPL ,  AXU , FNNVF , SVM

Gold ..... GG , EGO , KGC , AEM , AVGCF , KMKGF , GUYFF , AGIGF , KGILF , THM , GPRXF , PIRGF , JINFF , XG

Bullion ..... PHYS and PSLV

Oil ....... Bakken stocks BEXP,NOG,HES, a  few others

PBR , HRTPY , CVX , RDS/B

and a few select biotech ....NNVC , BTX , ISCO , GALT , CIGX , PVCT ,  a few others

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Sheeple, For the most part, I

Sheeple,

For the most part, I have no idea what you are buying since I'm not familiar with the 5 letter pink sheet symbols since I buy Canadian stocks on Canadian exchanges and not on the OTC market. 

Your list of symbols tells me that you buy your stocks on the US pink sheets paying the market makers wholesale markup in addition to the trading commission.  That's in addition to the currency transfer charge and getting your orders filled with a much less transparent bid ask price not guaranteeing you get the best fill price?  And of course, you don't see all these charges but it is preferable than paying the higher cost of trading directly on the TSX and Canadian exchanges?   Or am i missing something?  

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Howdy

I'll be lurking.   So tell us, why do you like the ones you like?  That's where things get interesting.

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In

In

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In a US IRA account, you can't trade

direct on Canadian market, so you either deal with the price ding on the pinksheet markets, or forego 99% of all miners in your account.  The former sucks, but what can you do?  Not have miners? 

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metcoalfan wrote: direct on

metcoalfan wrote:

direct on Canadian market, so you either deal with the price ding on the pinksheet markets, or forego 99% of all miners in your account.  The former sucks, but what can you do?  Not have miners? 

I understand and I'd do the same thing.  However, Fidelity does allow you to trade directly on TSX in an IRA so does Vanguard but you gotta call them. 

I'm trying to figure out if I am making a bigger deal than I should on these hidden costs and lack of transparency and also liquidiy issues since we have a bit of a breather, I've taken time to research all the online brokers and call them directly to ask about this and without exception they all admit buying on the pink sheet is not as smart as buying directly on the TSX.  Even TD Ameritrade said the same thing and they don't have any trading directly on the Canadian exchanges.   Strange for a Canadian operation. 

For now I'm using a broker to buy direct especially with Juniors.  And for my own trading I just put a little bit of money into Etrade to see how I like it.  

Everybody I have spoken to can't be bothered with this subject and just deal with the pink sheet.  But in such volatile markets I'm wondering if this is more important than people give it credit for since they are so used to buying the pink sheet stocks. 

I don't want to focus anymore on this issue but taking up Eric'O invitation to start doing some research this weekend on good bargains and honestly, I hope the bargains get better.  

For now, I really like the sale we are seeing on Pretium.  It was way too high even for the results coming in.  I don't like buying shares where future results are already priced in to the shares.  Also looking at bargains with Extorre Gold, 50% off it's 52 week high and we should hear about some great results in their october report.  Alot of room for growth.  Kinross and Yamana also on my todo list.   

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In a US IRA account, you can't trade

metcoalfan

I use Scottrade & have a IRA acct. with them

if I want to trade direct on Canadian market

there is a fee of $27.00 per trade for the service.

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Thanks

I had checked with E trade, who I use, Ameritrade and Interactive Brokers, and all said no.

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The information I received

The information I received from Interactive Brokers is Yes, you can trade on the TSX with an IRA.  However, you must convert your US FRN's into Canadian Dollars first.  With a regular cash account, you do not need to.   And apparantly, Penn Trade also allows you to trade on Canadian exchanges in an IRA.   And as I said, Fidelity does allow you to trade in an IRA.   Doug Casey has an article on investing in Canadian stocks on his website with a list of online brokers and regular brokers.  He also discusses the dangers of trading on the pink sheet. 

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Pink Sheets etc

Thanks for getting my forum going Green Lantern,and all. I appreciate all your inputs.

My IRA is a self directed  account with Schwab. and Schwab allows me to invest/trade directly onto the canadian exchanges at the nominal 9 dollar fee. and any other exchanges... thru their global desk. which is around a 35 to 50 dollar fee. I dont invest in australian or london markets as a rule ,having found most of what I like on the toronto.

and youre right ,the 'pink sheets' and the OTCC,are not good mediums, often illiquid,and the spreads are ridiculous.

The confusion from my post is that  these  ticker symbols I  wrote,yes they look like /are the pink sheet symbols.....but  the Schwab account system  basically employees these ticker symbols....BUT they assure me that the  shares are being bought and sold on the toronto exchange direct. Sometimes I have gotten confused or worried when I see these symbols as I tradeon their platform,  I get tripped up when I see the volume  of shares moving on a given day  that looks wacky...so I call Schwab, and they explain that  Yes, my trades are directly   on the toronto, not the pink sheets, and no, the volume on toronto is not 500 shares its 150k....etc...so not to worry, that sort of thing. Its just the way Schwab happens to identify the stocks with the ticker symbols they happen to use. I understand the confusion regarding these 'pink sheet ticker symbols'

I guess I should just list the name os the companies  instead. I was wondering if that was going to confuse people. thanks for your input on that. not sure how I should list it all then...I would have to go look up all the toronto ticker symbols and  transfer that to my stock list.

I'll just refer to the company name I guess.

Yeah, I try to never buy anything on the pink sheets.  My trades go direct to the toronto exchange with Schwab.

Schwab allows a self directed IRA account. I cant 'day trade' and I cant buy and sell options.  I mostly have a swing trade approach and long term buy and hold.  Once in a while I can do a quick turn around like SDS for 3 days... as long as I dont get them seeing alot of 2 and 3 day trades all over the place.

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Investing in the miners

I have been coming here to Turds blog now for maybe a year?  9 months?  So impressed with his analysis, feels  like on the same wavelength as me, but I sense he has more knowledge about some things.

But I notice that his focus has been mostly on day trading and short term charts and options etc...which I cant do any of that in my IRA accounts. I have long wished to see some more focus on the miners....not just the precious metals. I havent explored all these good forums yet. Maybe some folks already have been doing good blogs here on the miners. I'll be happy to just go there is somebody tells me which ones.

But as for my own miners and analysis,I think  I can add something to a good discussion.

I have found that it has taken me  all these last 2 years to establish a good portfolio of miners....I never would have thought it would take that long.

Ive been careful,and selective about timing and looking for the best bargain prices. I got lucky in some of the timing when I happened to begin this process in august of 2009...so I got in on some of the best miners at those low prices...like AG at 3 and SLW at 13. and JINFF at 1.30

I also made some stupid blunders  of bad technical guesses,being too cute with  trading strategy....like last year when SLW was at 17 or 18 in the summer. I was thinking it would make one more dip down to 15 and thats where I would buy alot more. So I sold my SLW at 18 and ,then watched it dip to 17 and then blast off and go soaring without me to the  high prices its been at . Talk about a blunder.  I did that with a few others as well.  I'm learning not to make such stupid miscalculations.

I had Chevron at 60 and sold it. I had  Great panther at 70 cents and sold it at 1.00

stupid stupid.

I forget the others but ,what can ya do.

I use TA to find the zones where the pullbacks ought to go,a buy zone.  I thought PSLV would settle around 15.50 ,so I bought a little there the other day....and it  plunged more to 14.30....so its still at best a guessing game sometimes.

I did get PHYS at the bottom at 14.06 (14.00)

There are some good bargains now, worth chatting about. 

They didnt all plunge way down....some actually held up strong...like Claude Resources...now I see it dropped into the buy zone at 1.70 on friday ... (ERIC,remember the Claude charts I sent you,  with the 1.70 targets? )

I'm a little worried now at the 50MA around 1.90 ....and alot of stocks now showing the overhead resistance ...we could get a rally up to these MA's and gap fills...and then another leg down to retest the lows and make new lows.....this would especially be anticipates if one is counting elliott waves....looking for the wave 5 down.  

But looking at different miners, they are not all moving in exactly the same way, some ,like Claude have dropped into a pullback buy zone,and still above the august 8 low....others  have made new lows below the august 8 low. its all specific to each chart.

We have alot of study and examination to do in finding the good bargains now.

I do feel theres a good chance for another retest of this weeks lows and august 8 lows...... I think PSLV and PHYS can both go one more leg lower.

Somebody mentioned a miner  above in the post,,something about Casey  as well...I'll have to go look again.

I'd like to know what miners you all like .

Right now,from the last several weeks and after this week's collapsing prices, I have my eye on Scorpio mining....Avion gold....Guyana Gold fields... Claude Resources.... Fortuna Silver..... PHYS and PSLV..... Kaminak...... Atac.... International Tower Hill (THM) ....Golden Predator.....Hecla ....Great panther .... Extorre.....GoldCorp.......Argonaut..... and if by some peculiar twist of short attacking again....SVM gets slammed down to 6...I would buy alot of SVM at 6

I think the key still is  (and always is) to buy the best bargain lows you can  calculate. Like SVM at 6 or Kaminak at   2.40 not 2.75.......  I wish I had caught PSLV at 14.30 instead of 15.50....that was a big miss  in my view. I will sell that PSLV  when it  goes back up and try again  if it retests the lows.

I dont even want SLW at 30 if I can get it at 27.50

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A few miners and target prices

I dont own Pretium but have been waiting for a real correction to buy a first position. I feel like waiting to see if it goes one more dip toward the 9 area and I'll buy some there.

I do own almost a full position in Premier Gold mines.....so I will try and wait to see if it goes below 5  heading toward 4 and the 200 MA. Theres no need for me to buy more at the same price I have it at.  Premier,as I understand, is  a stock to buy and hold as it waits to be taken over by a senior . So the price isnt that important  to nickel and dime the lows, but to own a good position between  4 and 6 is ok.

What I have  established in my portfolio now is  about 25 miners at full position,mostly at good prices, and about a dozen more at half position to 3/4 position....and a few that are only first position. These are the ones that I want to bring up to a fuller position.

A first position meaning I bought maybe 1200 dollars worth of a stock or 1400....and own   a small enough position that  it is what Casey calls "not meaningful"  If I'm going to own a stock it has to be a meaningful amount.....such that when it doubles,I will make a nice profit of a few thousand. $$ ...and  then to sell 1/2 of it and Still have enough remaining shares that it is still a meaningful amount to just hold onto for free.  

and usually that first position is not enough shares to be meaningful, and not enough that I can sell half of it on a double....its still a work in progress....trying to buy more at bargain corrections....this is what I have going now in a handful of stocks ....

so I'm watching these  as first priority. since we got this big correction, and many of these good miners are now in the bargain territory,and they could go another dip lower next week or in the next 10 days or so.

For my first positions  that I currently dont own at all....SLW at 27 ? is ok for a first position

Guyana Goldfields at 7.50 is ok

Pretium at 9-9.40 may be ok.

Extorre at 7 -6  is good  .... 6 would be very nice.

Strategy-wise....I also want some Franco-Nevada....a good core holding...and dropping this week to a low of  36.67 isnt bad but since I already own so many miners..... anything I want to buy now  I owe it to myself to be patient and see if theres another drop into a lower level....since I already own "enough" miners to ma ke me rich if the pundits are correct....heck...or should I say hecla...all we need is just a few good miners at  good prices and we could become wealthy ....  so Iin keeping it all in perspective.... I dont want to be greedy and keep buying everything that goes on sale....I always want to retain enough dry cash powder to buy  critical collapses. Right now might be one of those times, or there might be  another collapse  to come. So its important to be selective still.  SLW at 28 is ok but not spectacular. spectacular would be 22.

So Franco nevada at 36? ....mmmm....I see potential for a little more down into the 34 area...And in fact, I see indicators targeting that area between 31 and 34.  I would like Franco Nevada at 32-33 for a first position.

Like Gold Corp....bottomed so far at 44.88 and bounced to close at 45.61

44 is ok. Casey likes it at 46 and below. I like it at 42 ,41,and 40 as a core holding. If you look at Gold Corps  weekly chart ,and look at the full stochastics...this weeks collapse happened so fast the stochastics didnt have time to even get to the halfway mark. and the RSI indicator could drop a little more too. I see 42 as  the next dip down for GG.I'll buy more there for my core holding.

The experts I follow say GG is the best senior gold miner.

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good luck this week everybody

I'm watching now to see what any rally bounces look like and how the price action performs at the resistance levels,gap fill areas and those pesky MA's that now lurk above the current prices

My other outlook is that IF I see any of my watchlist miners I want to buy upon the next dip lower.....IF they do a sharp drop down at the open on monday...and hit my targets...I might just buy a few  there,since those prices are acceptable to me as an investment , to buy another position is ok.

As an example...I'm looking at Scorpio Mining,a good mexican silver  miner.

Finished the week's plunge to bottom at 1.70 and bounced to   close at 1.81

the daily chart 50 MA  is at 1.98 (2.00) and theres a troublesome left shoulder at 1.90 ....this is resistance on any upside bounce in the next day or three.  The RSI and Full Stochastics  both have more downside  to slide before showing oversold. and one of my useful indicator tools, Ichimoku Clouds, (I like it) shows a buy zone /support zone around the 1.50 area (Ive been watching Scorpio mining  a long time to see it ever correct at all to a normal buy zone....1.50 area and 1.25 area....and even after this past weeks collapse...it still only went as low as 1.70. Thats not low enough for me.  Add to this, the weekly chart view we see  the 50 MA at the 1.35 area (thats more like it) and the Ichimoku  zone  around 1.25 to 1.45 ...This is the area where I want to buy more Scorpio Mining.

I dont think this miner will slam down at the open  to that low level.....but Its one to be watching for  over the coming days. I think anyway.

If I see any that look like they could pop down to the buy zone I'll post  them here.

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Kaminak might be worth watching now

From last summers(2010) base at 1.70 soared to a top at 4.70.....the 50% fib is  at 3.20 and the 62% fib would be around  2.70 area

Price hit low on friday at  2.80 and closed just above at 2.88 (canadian /usa ?)   and the target I'm seeing in the charts for a more  TA pullback  is around 2.40-2.50  . Its possible that anywhere around here will be the bottom....between 2.40 and 2.80 as a bottom. and that 50% fib is in the Gap around 3.10-3.20

So it could be a tough call now on Kaminak. If I didnt own any at all I would be willing to buy here at 2.90

But I already own 2.90 and so I want to see if I can pick  up some more at lower bargain. 2.50 is fine . heck...or should I say Hecla.... 2.60 is ok too.

But this tricky awful game of guessing while the manipulators slam everything down at will..... I Hate  buying something at what appears to be a good price and then see it go  way lower. That really bugs me. Kaminak is a junior explorer.It is in the Yukon, and their drilling season is winding down,if not already completed. I think Atac's is now completed. So ...given this...its possible what Kaminak could slide more down...as the only thing that would propel price upwards is a oversold bottom. that bounce would be around 2.40 area. 2.50 area

I dont know Kaminaks  2011 recent drilling results. That would be helpful to know if anyone knows.

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More freefall on sunday night !!

Yikes. I was about to retire for the night ....its near midnite in california....that is  London open monday in 10 minutes, but so far from sunday night ...Freefall in gold  ongoing....looks like around 1545 so far and silver seems to have bounced  at 26  and something.

Folks still awake from sunday on turds blog are shocked  ,angry, flustered, some calm saying dont worry, some laughing...I think nobody really knows what to expect to see when New York opens in  6 hours.

After all my posts here  from sunday ,I had to try and approach another post now  at least to think thru  my plan for the new york open.

First, I have to go into my account and review Every stock bid I have placed....at what I think was going to be an ok stink bid and reevaluate it , probably drop them all way down to severe crash levels....like  looking at every chart and finding what I would consider  a fair value price to pay for a miner.

Here's a few that I have to  look at . and I would be "Happy" to buy these miners at these prices if the stink bids get hit tomorrow.

Look at First Majestic.  A great silver miner. Soaring from 10 dollars to the 25 area. and plunging  last week to the 16.80 area..... Now go find that  previous low back when it  reversed at 10 dollars.

While  youve been watching AG for the last several months around 25 and 23 and corrected to 16 and back up to 25 ...didnt you dream of how nice it would be if you could have had the chance to buy it at 10 ????  You might get your chance now. BUT UNDERSTAND....this is not to be construed as ADVISE FROM ME TO YOU.  you must make your own decisions thru your own due diligence.  I like AG at 10.00 area.

I dont like buying it at the top. I Never buy anything at the Tops.

I'm placing a stink bid at 10.50....and buying a 2x tranche .... which means I can still spend some more if the world collapses and the price goes down to ...????? 7  ?? 5 ??  3 ??

First Majestic is a stock with a silver in the ground value at around 35 or 40 dollars a share. from what I remember the CEO explaining.....(but dont quote me...thats a ballpark memory) it might be 30 .... but its not 15 and its not 10 or 5.

These fundamentals have not changed just because the raiders and manipulators are slamming down the paper price .

My  AG stink bid is  at 10.50

Hecla....HL

I'm placing a stink bid at 2.50

Both PSLV and PHYS ...... stink bids at 12.75....somewhere around there.   I Need to look at the charts and find the buy zone.  My memory remembers around 12.-12.50 and 11.75 area on both are reasonable.  I'll buy more at 11.50

I dont want to buy too many miners on this move  as I need to  conserve the dry powder for another collapse if it comes in waves.

Gold Corp at somewhere around 37-35- ,,,not sure , I have to look at the chart . and making  it a very low stink bid.

I'm changing my Kaminak stink bid from 2.50 to 1.55

ok, I see GG chart and I'm placing 2 stink bids for GG ....one tranche each....not going crazy with all my cash but  adding  a 1x position each.....one stink bid at 37 area and one stink bid at 34 area

something like 37.50 and 34.50  and

SLW.....2 stink bids  one portion each....one bid  at 25 and one at 22..... something like 25.10  and 22.10

and Fortuna silver .....one stink bid at 3.50   (50% fib from the top at 7)   and one stink bid at 2.50

and I'm changing my SVM stink bid from 6 to 5 

SVM stink bid at 5

I'll be using about  1/3 of my remaining dry powder. I'll have enough left to  buy about  10 positions at the march 2009 bottoms.

NOTE: These are my opinions and  my strategy only and is NOT intended to  function as ADVISE to YOU in any way. Please DO NOT simply  take these decisions  of mine and  make them YOUR OWN.   as in willy nilly.  Do NOT be  a SHEEPLE

You Must do your own Due Diligence.

Thanks for understanding.

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The London monday open

Looks like in the amount of time I wrote the last posts about the stink bids and the freefall.....silver has made a big bounce off 26  as London opened and is around 29 as i write,in the first hour of London and  Gold has bounced off the low around 1540 area and sits at 1580 now.

What will happen between now and the new york open is anybodys guess.   My extreme stink bids might not fall that far today anyway. But the idea was to be prepared .

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RE: Investing in the miners

sheeple wrote:

I also made some stupid blunders  of bad technical guesses,being too cute with  trading strategy... like last year when SLW was at 17 or 18 in the summer. I was thinking it would make one more dip down to 15 and thats where I would buy alot more. So I sold my SLW at 18 and ,then watched it dip to 17 and then blast off and go soaring without me to the  high prices its been at . Talk about a blunder.  I did that with a few others as well.  I'm learning not to make such stupid miscalculations.

I had Chevron at 60 and sold it. I had  Great panther at 70 cents and sold it at 1.00

stupid stupid.

I've been invested in SLW since Jan '09 and never sold. Could have made a couple of thousands extra selling and buying back as you tried. With hindsight the timing always seems easy... The only revenue I added was a covered (written) March '10 call. It's perhaps not a bad idea to determine potential exit levels and have a premium income on top of it.

Made my own bunch of blunders as well such as:

  1. not taking profit when I should have (on GORO, NAK)
  2. writing a very profitable covered call, but seeing the underlying stock plummet: should have given up some option gain and avoid more pain on the position (NG)
  3. selling a long call on GLD for a 50% profit, when I could easily have made a triple. Even holding on to expiration would still have made me a double...
  4. writing some puts on a few miners on what seemed to be decent entry levels, but that are -not surprisingly- underwater by now. (Got the funds to buy when assigned: an unfunded liability would be the worst blunder of all)

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