Wall Shots

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wallshot
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Wall Shots

I enjoy making charts.  I'll post ones I find interesting here until shoe'd away or I get bored.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:21
wallshot
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Ride the Bull

Some posts today talked about volatility. I got to thinking about the first bull I ever saw in the wild back in college before I had money to lose.  I never really looked closely at this bucking bronco until today.  Volatile, I'll show you volatile.

Mess with the bull, you get the horns

I know gold isn't "supposed to be" or perhaps "allowed" to be volatile like stocks, but it's probably worth looking at to put in perspective what wild swings really are.  If Gold ever wants to roam out in the wilds with the likes of Babe the big Blue Cisco Ox, THIS is what a weekly ride looks like.  Average delta during this span? +1.6%, with the average absolute delta being a 4.6% week to week.

Mess with the bull, you get the horns.

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What is the worth of a talent?

Here is what got me interested in gold.  While reading Plutarch's Lives, I stumbled across the term "talent" in reference to a weight of gold.  I looked up that unit of measure vs. a troy oz and ran the 20yrs of manual labor up against the US based 40hr work week.  The first time I looked at this, it was with in $0.50 of the current minimum wage.

Looking back at this again a couple of years ago made me scratch my head.  My fun fact was no longer true, Greek slaves were now much more expensive.  And so began my PM investing journey.  The chart below easily have 20% based on the amount of research I put in to this but the point could be argued that for most of last century the US companies paid for "slaves" at a similar rate as the Greeks.

What is the worth of a talent?

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Housing prices in Troy

I made these charts near the beginning of the year because I could not find them online. I don't doubt there is still room to undershoot the long term trend line. These show that housing might be getting cheap.  What these don't show is price or gold vs. land/plot size which might show something different. I suspect that lot sizes are decreasing which makes the average house more dependent on farmers.

Considering that we are definitely working more today than 30 years ago I think this shows a cheap dollar with a lot of downside ahead of it.  For example, even if we are getting cheaper housing, if both husband and wife(boyfriend/girlfriend) are working, did this house really get cheaper?

These are numbers based on New Construction.

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Alfalfa

It's not precious metals...so this is off topic for sure.  I don't understand how this market isn't rigged by money or rain.  I have no idea how alfalfa futures trade or how it's produced, but they are near my target of ~$200 before the next dip, to say $125?

next stop, $125?

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