Tom L's HQM Weekly Chart Review

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Tom L
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Tom L's HQM Weekly Chart Review

First up. Endeavor Silver (EXK).

9 month daily chart here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6114366132/

Bottom line, a break of $12.75 and a weekly close thereof sets up a 4-6 month run ~$17.50.  If there's a short squeeze it'll take place within the red uptrend channel that's in effect right now. A close above the upper Blue line creates the opportunity for that to act as support rather than resistance at which point I'll draw in the other potential trend channel lines.  But for now, in the next few trading days, the $12.75 area dominates. 

Ta,

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:21

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Shill
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Thanks Tom

Thanks Tom

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EGO 9-4-2011

Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)

9 month daily chart here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6118708535/

Commentary:

Friday's close suggests a new, steeper uptrend channel may be forming, the old one was defined by the Purple Uptrend line.  In the immediate term there is the Green Channel which looks like light resistance and immediate downside support would be at around the $20.40 double top.  Two different fibonacci expansions are giving a short-term price target of around $21.85,  Purple and Orange Fibonacci series.

Since the major move began off the over sold bottom at $13.38 the RSI has not dropped below 50 on any pullback, a classic sign of bull market behaviour, Blue arrows. The one disturbing trend is the declining volume, Red Arrow, which says to me that unless volume starts to pick up the run to $22 will be the short-term top while new buyers are found to propel the stock higher.  Of course, if gold runs to $2100, then who the hell knows what will happen, but watch the volume if this thing moves higher this week.   What is positive about the volume is that up volume is swamping down volume (blue volume bars are bigger than red ones), so there isn't any distribution happening while the price is rising, it's all accumulation but in stages as the stock has to wait for more buyers before moving to the next target. 

Watch the Blue uptrend line for your potential turn around spots.  That slope may be the new one for EGO going forward, but it'll take a re-test of the Purple line for that to be confirmed, IMO.

But, all in all it looks like the odds are for a run to $22 to $24 to continue especially with strong Gold prices.

Ta,

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Yamana (AUY)

6 month daily chart here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6119323024/

Commentary:
AUY broke out of a multi-year consolidation between $10 and $13 during the unreal volatility in the DOW/S&P in August, finally busting through obvious capping behaviour on the part of the EE.  This stock is just getting started from that perspective.  It looks like it's trying to leave the Blue Uptrend Channel and shack up with the Purple Uptrend Channel.  If so, a run to $18-$18.50 is likely this week on gold strength and no crazy market selloff.  The Purple Arrow signals that volume may be starting to turn up again, and if it continues at that level there should be little worry about getting to $18.50 by OE on 9/16.  IF there's a setback look for the purple channel to hold support which is also the 20 day MA.

It's going to take a breather at some point, the question is where and what slope is the dominant one.   I would buy any low volume pullback to the lower purple line.

Ta,

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Tom L

Thanks for the excellent EXK chart.  

how do you get the chart to go into October 2011?  is that a setting on stockcharts.com for members only?

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Thanks Tom

For all your contributions to the forums and special thanks for hanging out on Main St.

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murphy
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Thanks Tom

Thanks Tom

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@Corsair

You enter a number in the 'extra bars' field right below the chart itself.  I usually enter 20-30, which is 4-6 weeks on a daily chart. 

I hope this answers your question.

Ta,

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@Tom L

Awesome!  Thanks for the quick response.

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Kinross Gold (KGC)

First up the big 3 year chart.  This is the one that should convince you of the stock's potential.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6119983895/

That's a huge formation it's just broken out of and the Fib. series should give you some easy price points to look for as this thing moves higher. 

Now the daily chart to see what the short-term has in store for us.

1 year daily chart Here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6120005697/

Pretty well defined uptrend channel in Blue.  This morning's action brings us right up against the 3rd one (counting from the bottom).  Pushing through that one will allow it to run to the upper one and that one will then act as support on any reaction.  Short-term price targets are in the $19.50 to $20.20 range.   The breakout above $17.65 should act as horizontal support and that is a very important level on the hourly chart (not pictured). 

Ta,

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Y'all are welcome

Now let's go make some freaking FRN's!

Ta,

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Hecla Mining (HL)

9 month daily chart Here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6122772308/

Pretty well-defined down trend channel.  The stock's been under serious pressure since the January 2011 earnings report and nothing has changed since then.  Today's action brought HL right back to a familiar place, up against the upper boundary of the Blue Uptrend Channel.  The only good news is that up volume is beginning to improve.  The 10/20 DMA cross is also closer to the upper end of the channel than it's been in any of the other cycles, slightly improving odds of a potential breakthrough.  Clearly any break of the blue downtrend channel would be very bullish and met with some short covering but I'm not holding my breath.  Watch to see if it trades up against this boundary through the week which could bring on a 10/50 cross.   The RSI turns south after crossing 50, a clear sign of 'sell the rally' mentality.

For a realistic chance to blow through that line any reaction down has to hold $7.30 and rebound from there.   That would be constructive.

Ta,

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Minefinders Corp (MFN)

1 year daily chart here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6122367515/

Not as neat and tidy as EXK's chart with it's clearly visible inverted H&S pattern.  But a pretty impressive chart nonetheless.  Friday's breakout with the HUI was impressive from two perspectives. 1) it was done on significant volume, purple arrows, and 2) it did so pushing through the middle blue uptrend line. Today it even filled the gap it left on 9/2 and recovered that blue channel line. 

The green pitchfork, not a tool I use a lot but I have to thank Trader Dan (again) for it.  Here it was the right one for the job of projecting where resistance could show up as MFN tried to change the slope of its ascent.  The midline of the pitchfork should act as resistance as well as a fibonacci expansion of the august low to the all-time high.  This puts a near term price target on the $19.60 area.  This could happen, depending on G&S by OE or the end of the month. 

MFN has a low float and very little options activity, so the put:call ratio should be meaningless.  On any reaction down, look for the RSI to turn around in the 50-55 area before going higher.  There's no reason to believe this stock will ever see prices below ~$16.00 ever again.

Really a star in the making, I think, along with EXK.

Ta,

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NGD 9-82011

1 Year Daily Chart Here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6128381055/

The Blue Pitchfork looks like a good descriptor of the current uptrend.  I'd consider the middle line of the pitchfork support on any break of the Green Power Uptrend Line.  Fibonacci expansion and the thin blue resistance line create a cluster of potential resistance targets around the $14.90 area.  I'm currently long $15 Oct and Nov. calls in NGD and will be selling the Oct. ones into the end of this rally.  It looks like that could be as early as next week.  I would expect that resistance to be fierce but if Gold is rallying towards $2100, then this could keep riding the Green PUT.  damn the bad luck if that happens.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=NGD,P&listNum=

The Point and Figure chart for NGD has a target of $23.50 after a double top breakout on 8-10-2011. 

Ta,

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Silvercorp Metals (SVM) 9-8-2011

And now the one everyone cares so much about... Silvercorp.

9 Month Daily chart here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6128991248/

Today's action was extremely important and constructive.  Closing above the 38.2% Fib retracement line of the move down from $12.25 did three things: 1) it negated the Purple Downtrend Line for the time being, 2) Turned the 10 day MA positive and 3) Pushed the RSI over the important 50 level.  And it did all of this on very strong volume, the Friday Massacre day's volume notwithstanding.

The stock is now solidly above its 10 and 20 DMA, which should turn positive tomorrow and can now be seen to make a run at its 50 DMA and 50% Fib line at $9.64.  If the HUI/Gold are strong tomorrow, that attack may take place.  Initial resistance is at $9.25 (seen clearly on an Hourly chart, not pictured).  A push higher tomorrow would also create a very bullish candle on the weekly chart as well as a 10/20 DMA cross.  MACD has crossed and is trending up as well.

If you use some whiteout on the spike down to $7.00, then it looks like a pretty formidable triple bottom in the $7.75 area, so this push upwards really isn't that weird.  The violence of it may be but considering all of the exogenous circumstances it's really not that weird.  Everything about SVM is a +3 sigma event at this point. 

Lastly, there is a ton of OI in the options market at the $9.00 level, with a put/call ratio of nearly 2.5:1 (25K/10K contracts), so the fight for $9.00 will be fierce but if the weak-handed shorts capitulate, $9.60 or even $10.30 is possible by OE on the 16th.  

I would not recommend buying calls with the premiums the way they are.  There are good bargains/value in other good stocks.  If anything selling naked puts is a better way to go, but I'm not recommending that either unless you fully understand the risks involved.

Ta,

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maravich44
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SVM @ Tom L

You are very generous with your time and knowledge. Much appreciated.

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@Maravich

Believe me, I'm doing this as much for me as y'all (though the appreciation is definitely appreciated, make no mistake).  I'm in a very tenuous position financially and have to be right on my decisions.  Throwing up these charts helps me to clear out what I think is happening from what is actually happening.  If I'm going to get through these next 6 months this is something I have to do.  Publishing my observations for y'all to see ensures that I stay disciplined in my analysis. 

It's one thing for me to make a mistake with my money, it's quite another to do so when someone else may take your advice as well.  It's the essence of the voluntary free market.

Ta,

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HQM Report for 9/10

The HQM had a good week tacking on another 1.7 points to 105.868 for a gain of 1.6%.

It tracked, overall, perfectly with the HUI which rose from 618 to 628.34, also a gain of 1.6% and outperformed the XAU which only rose 0.2% for the week.  Copper miners like FCX being a drag on the XAU.

The HQM stands above its 5 day (105.545) and 10 day (103.194) moving averages.

Ta,

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maravich44
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@ Tom L.

No Worries, I have a small position in SVM that I bought Pre-Shit storm and am not playing options, your updates and analysis are very help full. I can't help but think that your unselfishness is a positive for your Karma. Thanks again and best..

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Yamana Gold 9-11-2011

6 month Daily Chart Here:

https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/6f_6jvA7uQ-BSpi5DpBJDOnzKyZMeQQzg4ox7ks8GyA?feat=directlink

The midline of the Blue Pitchfork has been resistance in the past but this past week has begun to act as support.  The Green Uptrend Channel is the short-term power uptrend that is dominant right now.  The Red line may be secondary resistance that portends a turnaround and a pause in the rally that started with the breakout above $13.50 back in the beginning of August.  If the red line is not respected then the overbought signal on the RSI and MACD will be ignored for another few days while the stock runs up to $18.40.  At that point a correction should occur of some form or another.

It will depend on the action in Gold this week, IMO.

Ta,

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MFN Week of 9-12-2011

10 month Daily Chart Here:

https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/FLXodjGgFunJbJHrTJBKZ-nzKyZMeQQzg4ox7ks8GyA?feat=directlink

Purple Pitchfork tells the tale.  The mid-line will act as resistance if the Red Uptrend Line is broken.  That puts a potential pricde target for the week at $19.59. This will only happen with a move in gold back towards the all-time high of $1926.  Otherwise grinding higher in the triangle created by the Red line and the lower Purple line of the Pitchfork is the best possible outcome for the week.  This should cause the RSI to flatten or degrade a bit.  I would buy any pullback on the RSI to 50. Period.

Ta,

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