Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners

410 posts / 0 new
Last post
MisesFan
MisesFan's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 1730
Posts: 357
repost - info re: CMA...

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Nov 03 (MARKET WIRE) --

Pinetree Capital Ltd. (TSX:PNP), announces that through a series of

transactions ending on November 2, 2011, it acquired ownership of

2,750,000 common shares ("Common Shares") of Cream Minerals Ltd. ("Cream

Minerals") through the facilities of the TSX Venture Exchange,

representing approximately 1.8% of the total issued and outstanding

common shares of Cream Minerals as of November 2, 2011. As a result of

this transaction, Pinetree held, as at November 2, 2011, an aggregate of

23,250,000 common shares of Cream Minerals, including the Common Shares,

and rights to acquire an additional 5,000,000 common shares of Cream

Minerals upon exercise of certain convertible securities (the

"Convertible Securities"). In the event that the Convertible Securities

are fully exercised, the holdings of Pinetree represents a total of

28,250,000 common shares of Cream Minerals, or approximately 18.0% of all

issued and outstanding common shares as at November 2, 2011, calculated

on a partially diluted basis assuming the exercise of the Convertible

Securities only.

for some reason, the text in my original post is not displaying.

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Miners disappoint

Stock markets were up on both shores of the Atlantic, with on Wall Street the S&P up well over 1%. The PM rally however came to an end, with gold down about $10 (-0.5%) to $1785 by 4:40 pm and silver almost flat (-0.1%) at $34.92. Miners react adversely, ignoring the favourable stock market sentiment. We face losses outnumbering gains 9:5 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 1.4%, the silver miners index loses 0.65% and the equal weight index sheds 1.66%. We have 3 double digit losses against 2 dd gains.

On the upside: Plato Gold Corp. & TVI Pacific Inc. recover from yesterday's slide. on the downside, the stocks to avoid today were:

  1. NGEx Resources Inc. (down 32%: misreported by Yahoo: down 5.8% to $2.81 on TSX)
  2. Tyhee Development Corp.
  3. Eastmain Resources Inc.

On the broad list, Minefinders reacted adversely on worse than anticipated quarterly results.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Disappointment turning to despair

Main European markets closed around 2% in the red as the Italian saga seems to turn into a self fulfilling prophecy. Wall Street is even more desperate about it than are the Europeans, with a 3.67% slide on the S&P, we had the worst day since August 18.

Precious metals are down, with gold sliding $16.5 to 1768.6 (-0.9%), but silver selling off to $34.02 (-2.5%).

All head winds for miners and no wonder we face losses outnumbering gains 6:1 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 1.44%, silver miners sell off with a 4.8% loss on their index. The equal weight sheds 2.7%.

Losses being widespread, we have only two juniors down double digits: Plato Gold and Atlanta Gold are the victims. 

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Miner recovery? Not today!

Miner recovery? Not today!


After a rocky session, Wall Street recovered a fraction of yesterday's loss, with the S&P up 0.86%. Precious metal are almost flat : gold edged fractionally lower to $1659.9 (-0.5% or -$9); silver is up a nickel to $34.08.

Miners are uninspired and continue selling off: on our GMP list, we have losses outnumbering gains 2:1. The gold miners index is down another 1%, the silver miners index slides 2.9% after Silver Standard disappointed in 2011Q3 and revised reserves&resources down on its Pirquitas mine in Argentina. 
(See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver...62997.html?x=0Silver Standard Res. drops over 20% on the news.

The equal weight index is down 1.18%.

 
The HUI/Gold, SIL/Silver and GMP miners graphs on the blogpage: http://gwyde.blogspot.com/p/gold-miner-pulse.html have been updated.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Ending the week with a rally
Ending the week with a rally

Stock markets seem to want to put investors at ease going into the WE. We had a solid recovery rally today after a rocky week. Stock markets are up both sides of the Atlantic with a 1.95% gain on the S&P.

Precious metals recovered much of what was lost since we peaked on Monday. Gold is up 1.6% to $1788.5 at the NY-Globex close. Silver is up 1.7% likewise, closing at $34.66.

After a three day losing streak, miners rallied today with gains outnumbering losses 3:1 on our GMP list. The gold miners index is up 2.9%, the silver miners index gains 2.5% and the equal weight index lags somewhat with a 1.6% gain.

Losing double digits during a miners rally has been the fate of 5 components of the GMP list:

  1. TVI Pacific Inc. (-10%)
  2. Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd.
  3. Harte Gold Corp.
  4. Aura Minerals Inc.
  5. Crocodile Gold Corp. (-25%)

Nanocap Laurion Mineral Exploration is the only double digit gain.

Silver Standard Res. recovers 5.25% of yesterday's 20% slide.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Dead in the water

Markets turned south both sides of the Atlantic. Berlusconi's political exit spurred its relief rally in anticipation. Most European markets were down over 1%. Wall Street limited the loss to 0.96% on the S&P.

Precious metals weakened with a fractional loss for gold, quoting $1780 by 4:40pm and silver down $0.41 or 1.2% to $34.25. Predictably the greenback strengthened as markets sentiment turned sour.

Rather unfavourable circumstances for the miners: another Friday rally dead in the water after the weekend. We have losses outnumbering gains 5:2 on our GMP list, with the gold miners index down 1.2%. The silver miners index upholds relatively well with a loss of only 0.64%. The equal weight index loses 0.86%.

We have three double digit gains on our list:

  1. Silvermex Resources Inc.
  2. Temex Resources Corp.
  3. Gowest Amalgamated Resources Ltd.

With these four laggards you were off worse:

  1. Galantas Gold Corporation
  2. Crazy Horse Resources Inc.
  3. Aura Minerals Inc.
  4. Minco Silver Corporation

Crocodile Gold extends its slide, down another 9.9% today.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Almost flat...

European markets continue to the downside today, though German and British indices rallied towards the close, mitigating losses. After some hesitation, Wall Street rallied towards the close to end in the green. The S&P is up 0.48% on the day, Nasdaq rises over 1%.

Precious metals are uninspired, with gold ending essentially flat at $1780.9 (+$0.6). Silver does better with a 1.1% rise to $34.64. The intraday profile has been unusual though: both yesterday as today gold sold off on Asian markets and essentially mitigated losses (yesterday) or recovered (today) towards the London close.

On our GMP list the number of gains matches the number of losses. The gold miners index is up 0.53%, the silver miners index hardly moves (+0.13%). Yet the equal weight index loses 0.35%.
There is some strength among majors, while a few explorers get hit: we have 3 double digit losses on our list:

  1. Temex Resources Corp.
  2. Gowest Amalgamated Resources Ltd.
  3. TVI Pacific Inc.

The three are also down over the long term, with an especially bad track record for TVI Pacific.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
A rocky ride

European markets ended mixed, with minor losses (UK, Germany) not quite compensated by similar gains (F, NL). Wall Street however sold off heavily into the close, posting a loss of 1.66% on the S&P.

Precious metals had a hard time as well, with gold down 1% to $1763.6 by 4:40 and silver down almost a buck to $33.66 (-2.8%). A rocky ride as well: gold went through multiple intraday swoons and recovery attempts. For the third day in a row, we had an unusually weak start of the trading day on Asian markets.

Nothing but head winds for our miners and we face losses outnumbering gains 7:2 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 0.99%, in line with the yellow metal. The silver miners index sheds 1.85%, ending off less bad than the white metal. The equal weight index limits its loss to 0.95% as we have quite a few counter trend double digit gains:

  1. Revett Minerals Inc. (up 27% after a favourable court decision on the environmental impact of Rock Creek)
  2. NovaGold Resources Inc. (Up 25%: Spin off of NovaCopper & Billionaire Kaplan named chairman by new CEO Greg Lang(ex-Barrick). (http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevesch...rtner=yahootix)
  3. SilverCrest Mines Inc.
  4. Rye Patch Gold Corp.
  5. Pacific Rim Mining Corp.
  6. Laurion Mineral Exploration
  7. Lincoln Mining Corporation
  8. Tyhee Development Corp.

You were off worse with Esperanza Silver Corporation which got a 16% haircut...

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Back to square 1 ...
General stock markets are making a losing streak both sides of the Atlantic. On Wall Street the S&P is down another 1.68% to 1216.1 at a breath of what has been declared a resistance level for the intermediate term. Breaking 1215 will be wakening up the bears. 
 
After crude hit a high yesterday, today we witness a strong retreat. That counts for other commodities and precious metals as well. We faced a $43 or 2.5% slide on gold to 1719.9. Silver is off worse with a 5.8% slide to $31.71. Those are the most severe retreats since September 28.
 
No hope for miners to withstand the head winds: we have losses outnumbering gains 4:1 on the GMP list. The gold miners index slides 3.46%, the silver miners index sheds 4.03% and the equal weight index is off 3.21%.
 
Surprisingly we have only one penny stock down double digits (Plato Gold) even compensated by a double digit recovery gain for TVI Pacific.
 

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Recession fear

True to its strong currency policy, the ECB is reluctant start the money press. The downgrade of sovereign debt of the PIIGs member states erodes the reserves of most banks. Government austerity measures are suffocating private consumption and the recession at the EU perifery is now affecting the core. The stock market plunge is accelerating, as many European indices are down over 3%.

The contagion on Wall Street caused another 1.86% drop on the S&P, which is now in bearish territory. The greenback benefits from the market turmoil.
 
Precious metals sold off today: gold is down 2.4% to 1684 by 4:45 pm, while silver lost 2.1% to $31.73. Predictably, on our miners GMP list, we have losses outnumbering gains 8:1. The gold miners index limits its loss to 1.64%, the silver miners index is down 2.25%, but the equal weight index is beaten up with a 3.58% loss. We have a most general weakness among the explorers and juniors today, though there's only four double digit losses:
  1. Lincoln Mining Corporation (-27%)
  2. Edgewater Exploration Ltd.
  3. Cream Minerals Ltd. (profit taking after a winning streak)
  4. TVI Pacific Inc.
But, major slides also for:
  • Great Basin Gold Ltd. (heavily oversold)
  • Treasury Metals Inc. (profit taking on outperformer)
  • Extorre Gold Mines Limited

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
They can't get it right

They can't get it right

Markets can't get it right, it seems. Though European markets recovered at opening, the sovereign debt market continued to sell off, eventually making the broad market revert course. Wall Street opened in the red, causing a sell-off into the close. American markets weren't any better as the focus on the political stalemate over a failing budget cut policy shifts attention to domestic debt problems... and newly planned stress tests for banks add up to the sorrow. The S&P closed down 0.41%.

The precious metals ultimately revive as investors getting out of bonds see little alternative. Gold recovers some of yesterday's loss quoting $1699.7 at 4:30pm, the price of gold has been flirting with the $1700 most of the day. Silver makes a more vigorous recovery: up $1.07 or 3.4% on the day to $32.8. 

A relief for miners as we see the first gains since over a week. On the GMP miners list, gains outnumber losses 8:3. The gold miners index is up 2.41%. The silver miners index adds 1.64% and the equal weight index adds a modest 1.59% gain. We have strength concentrated among majors, with all large cap miners up, lead by Kinross with a gain over 5%. A rather irregular performance of the explorers with a few double digit gains offset by some disappointments.
Today's top league: Four double digit gains and twice over 9%.

  1. Plato Gold Corp.
  2. Typhoon Exploration Inc.
  3. Claude Resources Inc.
  4. Tyhee Development Corp.
  5. Extorre Gold Mines Limited
  6. SilverCrest Mines Inc.

Today's laggards (between -7.5% and -11.4%)

  1. Gowest Amalgamated Resources Ltd. (-11.4%)
  2. Rye Patch Gold Corp.
  3. Crazy Horse Resources Inc.
  4. Alexandria Minerals Corporation
  5. Galantas Gold Corporation
  6. Soho Resources Corp.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Bleeding to death

In Oct '08 longs were decapitated, now they're bleeding to death. The stock markets continue their slide. The sovereign debt soap is at its 256th episode. Talking heads are pointing to Asia and Europe (where markets plunged only after Wall Street opened in the red.) Cash is king and the greenback is about the only beneficiary...

Yesterday's PM recovery was short lived. Today gold is down just 0.4% at 5pm quoting $1693, while silver hands back the gains of yesterday's rally: down over 3% to $31.75. No wonder miners get the full blow with losses outnumbering gains 7:1 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 2.35%, the silver miner index is off 3.2% and the equal weight index sheds 2.87%.

We have five double digit losses against a little significant penny stock (TVI-Pacific) up 12%. 
The laggards are following:

  1. Lincoln Mining Corporation
  2. Laurion Mineral Exploration
  3. Plato Gold Corp.
  4. Tyhee Development Corp.
  5. Gowest Amalgamated Resources Ltd.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Update

Update of the GoldMinerPulse page: the HUI relative to gold and SIL relative to silver don't look very nice...

http://gwyde.blogspot.com/p/gold-miner-pulse.html

__________________

Gwyde

T
T's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/10/2011
Hat Tips: 6234
Posts: 894
Great link Gwyde

Your blog site  looks great. current update  very helpful. thank you .

Since it looks like the current  pullback from the october top ,heading now back toward the early october low....appears to be a critical time now for the miners....either to hold here and make a movement uptrend, or else  a breakdown below the october 4 bottom looks like a trend change going down at that point. Its crunch time now for the miners. Do you see it that way as well ?

Also, do you have any list of miners you like, at this moment, in terms of valuation, price,  etc...

thanks again .

S

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
About miners lists...

Bag of Gold is maintaining a list of penny stock picks at her thread on this forum.

It mainly raises my curiosity, so I started tracking the performance of her pick list since Oct 27. The gold explorer market has been harsh ever since and the BOG list is at a loss, in spite of some nice rallies on a few picks (e.g. Cream Minerals). You find the BOG list performance in following google-spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoStOj0lu5BZdER0V0RDSnhhZDh...

It is at the same time a "Contributor driven penny stock  spreadsheet", where posters on the Kitco forum are invited to contribute their pet stocks, which I follow in that list. To limit the zeal, I demand contributors to check NI43-101 compliant resources/reserves for their picks.

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=95700

It is surprising that very few contributors actually dare to take the challenge. By the way, my draft list & contributed stocks don't on average do any better than BOG's list.

In general, explorers lag mid tier producers an majors in the current stock market climate. I have a few blog postings on miner ETF's and I'm afraid the conclusions of the October posting on "Junior gold miners and explorers lagging majors" is still valid. We can complain about it, but we have to acknowledge. The underperformance of GLDX relative to GDX is illustrative in this perspective.

 

__________________

Gwyde

Eric Original
Eric Original's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 42912
Posts: 5554
So true

There's lots of "lists" out there.  Several of us more or less keep a list on this blog.  But when the sector goes down, we all go down in flames with it.  No one is immune.  We are all either heroes or goats all at the same time.

__________________

Don't fight the Tape. Don't fight the Fed.
Buy Strength, Sell Weakness. Stay in Gear with the Tape.
Leave your Opinions at the Door. Sleep Better at Night.

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Happy thanksgiving

With Wall Street closed the precious metals were pretty much left on their own and we saw little movement. Gold is flat (+0.1%), while silver recovers 0.4% after yesterday's slide. Volumes on TSX were rather low. Miners continued sliding and we faced losses outnumbering gains by 3:2. The gold miners index is down 1%, the silver miners index limits the loss to 0.4% and the equal weight index ends 0.7% down. Three penny stocks are down double digit against one up dd.

Among today's victims we have Cream Minerals, one of the market darlings that posted an impressive winning streak recently.

Some more about "lists": as I 've been tracking the stocks on GoldMinerPulse, it was interesting to see where they went over a full year:

Canadian gold and silver miner performance

Valuation data for a representative list of Canadian gold and silver miners and explorers are maintained on the Gold Miner Pulse site (GMP). On the dedicated ‘Gold Miner Pulse’ page of this blog the performance of the HUI unhedged gold miners index is shown relative to gold bullion. It doesn't look nice: nor over the short term nor over two years, even since the aftermath of the secular financial crisis. 

In another graph the performance disparity is illustrated among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database. Some lucky picks have been outperforming silver or gold by an impressive margin. Few laggards have lost tremendously despite gold and silver up considerably over the year. A disappointing majority of 61 precious metal miners are in the red since Nov 19 last year. Little individual miner information can be conveyed in one such graph. Therefore, I 'm going into detail to give an idea which miners were good picks and what are the investor's nightmares.

Complete posting at:

http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2011/11/canadian-gold-and-silver-miner_24.html

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Payday for shorters
After an incessant slide for two entire weeks, European stock markets took a breather as most markets posted small gains. Too little to call it a relief rally. Wall Street posted a minor loss: down 0.27% on the S&P with the greenback strengthening further.
 
Since PM have been weakening last few days, this Friday is a payday for short sellers. It would be a surprise to see precious metals gain, given the circumstances. Gold is down 0.9% to $1680, while silver is beaten back 2.8% to $30.98.
 
Nothing but head winds for the miners and we again face losses outnumbering gains 5:2. The GMP gold miners index is down only marginally (-0.07%), the silver miners index loses 0.95% and the equal weight index sheds 0.59%. Heavyweights Barrick and Goldcorp post gains on TSX, mitigating the gold index loss. Though losses are widespread, no miners are down double digits. Penny stocks Pacific Rim and TVI Pacific excel with a 12.5% gain.

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
GoldMinerPulse spreadsheet

I updated the GoldMinerPulse spreadsheet today, with fresh valuation and resource data (URL in the opening post). MarketCap/Oz is trending down as can be expected, but also the relative valuation indicator: OVRV = (OreValue/tonne) / (MarketCap/Oz) is declining: miners continue to be valued more cheaply relative to their reserves & resources.

I've been maintaining a "contributor driven penny & explorer stock list" as well. As can be expected, it doesn't look nice. sad

An "equal weight" portfolio would be down 12.4% over four weeks. Nothing to be really ashamed of though: the GLDX Gold Explorer ETF is down 14% over the same time stretch (it's included in the 'benchmark')

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoStOj0lu5BZdER0V0RDSnhhZDhzZUt5dHJKaVRCVVE&hl=en_US#gid=0

__________________

Gwyde

Gwyde
Gwyde's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/29/2011
Hat Tips: 1921
Posts: 512
Back on track?

Stock markets are up across the globe today. Wall Street rallied with a 2.92% gain on the S&P.

After the future settlement day last Friday, PM were in for a rally as well. Gold was quite volatile but ended the day up 1.8% at $1709.9. After a severe slide, silver recovered even more: up 3.5% to $32.06.

Tail winds for the miners as we had gains outnumbering losses 3:1 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is up 1.56%, silver miners soar by 3.29% and the equal weight index is up 3.2%.

We have seven double digit gains today, numbers 1-4 soar over 20%:

  1. Lincoln Mining Corporation
  2. Esperanza Silver Corporation
  3. Pretium Resources Inc.
  4. Mines Management Inc.
  5. Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc.
  6. Tyhee Development Corp.
  7. Wildcat Silver Corp.

Not only obscure penny stocks but some well known explorers in this list:
Pretium Resources Inc.: Significant Increase in Brucejack's Gold Resources
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pretium-Resources-Inc-iw-45750832.html?x=0

On the flip side: two miners made a major slide today:

  1. Great Basin Gold Ltd. (in a losing streak, slides another 9.35% after starting the day recovering about that much!)
  2. Gowest Amalgamated Resources Ltd. (down 10.8%)

__________________

Gwyde

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Syndicate content Comments for "Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners"