Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners

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October 18, 2011 - 5:20pm

#62

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Reversal

European stock markets started deep in the red on cautious German comments not to expect all euro debt problems to be solved on the Oct 23 EU-summit.
But again the whisper circuit was turning to the wider possible policy range of the ECB and losses mitigated. The German DAX index even ended with a modest gain. Wall Street continued this trend, erasing early losses and rallying to a 2% gain on the S&P.

Precious metals were mixed. Gold continued weakening with a 0.7% loss to $1660 by 4:30 pm, whereas silver almost covered back yesterday's loss with a 1% gain to $32.15. After a weak start, miners largely responded to markets progressing with gains ultimately outnumbering losses 2:1 on the GMP list.
The gold miners index is up a modest 0.35%, the silver miners index gains 1.1% and the equal weight index is up 0.74%. We have 4 double digit gains against one double digit loss.

The lucky ones are

Century Mining Corporation
Eco Oro Minerals Ltd.
Aura Minerals Inc.
TVI Pacific Inc.

The laggard is Galantas Gold Corporation.

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October 19, 2011 - 5:21pm

#63

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Landslide losses

Whereas European stock markets ended the day with gains, Wall Street sold off during the afternoon with the S&P down 1.26% and Nasdaq selling of by 2% on tech weakness (Apple mist a quarterly target).

Gold continues weakening for the third day quoting $1641 at 4:30pm, a 1.1% loss. Silver is off worse, down a buck or over 3% to $31.15. Adversities combine for miners: stock markets retreat and precious metals sell off. Moreover AEM is suspending mining operations and gold production at its Goldex mine in Val d'Or, Quebec because of rock instability after ground water infiltration. This pinpoints risks inherent to mining operations and scares off investors. We face landslide losses as a result, with losses outnumbering gains 8:1 on the GMP miners list. The gold miners index plummets 5.8%, the silver miners index sheds 5% and the equal weight index is down 3.6%.

As losses are widespread, we (only) have three double digit losses:

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited -18.6%
Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd. -11%
Extorre Gold Mines Limited -10%

Penny stock Edgewater expl. makes a counter-trend double digit gain.

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October 20, 2011 - 5:52pm

#64

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Tal vez no tenga fin

European stock markets made a slide today, with losses in excess of 2% for some market indices. Wall Street reverted to modest gains, with the S&P up 0.46%. Nasdaq stayed 0.2% in the red.

Precious metals however continued their slide, with a $20+ loss for gold, down 1.3% to $1620 and a 1.8% loss for silver to $30.58 at the close.
"Tal vez no tenga fin": ('Perhaps there is no end', to quote an appropriate Tango title of H. Salgan de Lío)
This applies most of all to the miners: we continue yesterday's slide with losses outnumbering gains 3:1 on the GMP list. The GMP gold miners index is down 1.2%, the silver miners index loses 1.48%. The equal weight index limits the loss to 0.9%.

To end on an upbeat note: we did have 3 countertrend double digit gains against (only) two double digit losses:
The lucky ones:

Soho Resources Corp.
Galantas Gold Corporation
Edgewater Exploration Ltd. (2nd day of dd gains)

The laggards:

Plato Gold Corp.
Crazy Horse Resources Inc.

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October 21, 2011 - 5:35pm

#65

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Little conclusive...

After yesterday's slide, European markets made a vigorous recovery today, with the German Dax up 3.55%. Wall Street continued progressing after yesterday's reversal, with the S&P up 1.88%.

Precious metals recovered with gold back up 1.3% to $1642 (about where we left off Wednesday) and silver up 2.7% to $31.41. The greenback is giving way again, accounting for much of gold's gain.

The miners response was little conclusive: we did have gains outnumbering losses by nearly 3:1 on the GMP list. Yet the gold miners index is up only 0.6%. The silver miners index gains 1.64% and the equal weight index is up 1.36%. Miners don't catch up with PM firming, in spite of a stock market tailwind.

Though miners are progressing widely, we have only 2 double digit gains versus 4 dd losses: The two lucky ones are Plato Gold Corp. and Treasury Metals Inc.

Today's laggards are:

Tyhee Development Corp.
Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd.
Pacific Rim Mining Corp.
Laurion Mineral Exploration

Yesterday, I made an update to the Gold Miner Pulse blogpage: http://gwyde.blogspot.com/p/gold-miner-pulse.html with fresh HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver graphs and comments on the GMP miners indices.

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October 24, 2011 - 5:32pm

#66

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Heading back north...

After a little conclusive European summit on sovereign debt, European markets were hesitating between gains and losses for most of the day, but finally rallied towards the close, with most main market indices up 1 to 2%. Wall Street is progressing likewise with S&P up 1.29% and Nasdaq rallying 2.35%.

PM gains are modest, as volatility is dropping. Gold was quoting up $12 or 0.7% to $1654 by 5 pm, while silver added $0.39 or 1.7% to $31.8.
With market tailwinds and PM stabilizing, fear is abating for mining investors and share prices are heading back north. We have gains outnumbering losses 4:1 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is up 3.26%, the silver miners index soares 6%. After the allegations against Silvercorp were proven false by a 'forensic' audit, SVM soared by over 18%.
The equal weight index is up 2.35%. We have 4 double digit gains against one dd loss. The laggard is Galantas, a nanocap Irish producer. Today's double digit winners are:

Silvercorp Metals Inc.
Tyhee Development Corp.
Harte Gold Corp.
Laurion Mineral Exploration

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October 25, 2011 - 7:59am

#67

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Crazy Horse Resources

Crazy Horse Resources came with a new NI43-101 compliant resource description with part of the resources promoted to the measured & indicated category.

Worth considering?
http://gwyde.blogspot.com/2011/10/cr...resources.html

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October 25, 2011 - 5:57pm

#68

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Blame it on Europe...

If you're uncertain about the explanation of any market irregularity... blame it on Europe. Wall Street lost ground today with losses of 2% for the S&P and 2.35% on Nasdaq.

Quote:

Stock Rally Stalls as Euro Zone Fix Is Strained By Delays & Disagreement - Matt Nesto
The debate about whether tomorrow's EU Summit will bring forth proposals to resolve the debt crisis is playing out in the stock market vs. the credit markets.

Not a very plausible explanation as the german DAX is near flat (-0.14%) today. Yet it's human nature to find sources of problems abroad and successes at home.

Precious metals had been flat on Asian markets but made a quantum leap at about 10 am in NY (and towards the London close). As a result gold is up 3.1%, shattering the $1700 ceiling to close at $1705.6. Silver soars 4.8% to close at $33.37. Some journalists must consider this surge a major problem... as they blame it on Europe:

Quote:

Safe-Haven Demand Returns To Gold On Uncertainty About Europe
25 October 2011, 1:36 p.m.
By Allen Sykora
Of Kitco News
(Kitco News) - Safe-haven demand returned to the gold market Tuesday on uncertainty following news that a European finance minister meeting to discuss the debt crisis on Wednesday was canceled.

Quote:

Gold, silver jump to one-month highs
Mishmash of Europe headlines breaks metals from recent range
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold and silver futures rallied to one-month highs Tuesday as Europe’s disjointed progress toward a debt-crisis resolution gave investors enough reasons to buy precious metals, stoking further gains as prices broke through a recent ceiling.

On our GMP list we have gains outnumbering losses 4:1. The gold miners index is up 3.8%, the silver miners index rises 2.8% and the equal weight index is up likewise 2.85%. The mining stocks ignore stock market weakness for the moment being after the spectacular rise of PM.

We have five double digit gains agains two double digit losses. The lucky ones are:

Edgewater Exploration Ltd. (continuing to recover)
Galantas Gold Corporation (recovering after yesterday's slide)
Arian Silver Corporation
Extorre Gold Mines Limited
Impact Silver Corp.

You're off worse with those two laggards:

TVI Pacific Inc.
Atlanta Gold Inc.

... I have some difficulties in pinpointing a eurocentric reason behind these moves.

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October 26, 2011 - 6:27pm

#69

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… running out of steam

European markets were mixed today, with minor losses on several market indices not quite balanced by gains on a few. Wall Street recovered from yesterday's slide, with a 1.05% gain on the S&P. The EU summit wasn't good news for the banking sector which will need to accept larger writedowns on Greek debt.

Gold kept on rising, gaining 1.2% today to $1725.5. Silver added a more modest 0.6% to $33.47. The miners rally is running out of steam: gains still outnumber losses 2:1 on the GMP list, yet the gold miners index weakened by 0.5%. The silver miners index did rise another 1.05% and the equal weight index is up 0.72%. We face 3 double digit losses against 2 dd gains today.

On the downside, Extorre Gold (XG.TO) is the main victim, with a 20% loss. Extorre is exploring in Argentina. The country repudiated the tax exemption on repatriating profits. This measure may affect the take-over value of the company, but the slide may be overdone. Companies effectively mining in Argentina (AUY, PAAS) are affected much less.

The other double digit moves concern volatile penny stocks: GWA and PGC down, MGT and MTB up.

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October 27, 2011 - 6:00pm

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Tailwinds

After the decisions made at the EU summit, European markets were partying with a relief rally upto 5% on the German DAX and even over 6% on the French CAC40. Wall Street felt inspired with a 3.43% gain on the S&P.

Precious metals were strong too, with gold up another $21 to $1746 but silver made a home run, soaring 5% to $35.19. PM are up for the sixth consecutive day now.

With these tailwinds, gains are outnumbering losses 4:1 on our GMP list. Yet the gold miners index advances with a sluggish 0.64% only. The silver miners index seems better with a 2.28% rise, yet lags the metal. The equal weight index is up 2.34%. Majors start lagging again, with the gold miners index impaired by a disappointing 5.9% loss for AEM.

Double digit moves were all to the upside today: a patch of strength for explorers.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Plato Gold Corp.
Soho Resources Corp.
Minco Silver Corporation
Treasury Metals Inc.
Laurion Mineral Exploration

Extorre recovers by over 9%. The market seems to agree with me that yesterday's slide felt overdone.

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October 28, 2011 - 1:05am

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nice updates

good updates Gwyde.

keep up the good work.

October 28, 2011 - 1:13am

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some good miners

Its all tricky and full of manipulation always, but there are some good miners to be found. among these lists and others.

I like the way Minco Silver looks right now. held support lows pretty good at 2 dollar zone....now a good push in the last few days ,especially todays best of the bunch I own, at 13% + theres a gap on a pullback to the 2.16 price point that maybe ....its always a big Maybe....could be the place to buy more for a strong uptrend going into the winter finale. All the indexes, all the charts ,all are needing some sort of pullback correction off these days of a big up wave . playing the probabilities here would anticipate a correction coming soon....I'm looking for a basic 50% pullback...and then the next wave going up.

The danger is that if the Powers that Bee, have something else in mind,and the market gets taken down from here....oh well..... its only our life savings ...right?

I'm looking to add a little more longside upon the next pullback into the buy zone.

October 28, 2011 - 6:13pm

#73

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A calm sea

After yesterday's vigorous rally, Eurpean stockmarkets took a breather with minor losses on most markets and gains on a few. Wall Street recovered from a poor start to end flat likewise (+0.04% on the S&P).

PM followed suit with very little movement: gold is down $2.5 to $1743.6 and silver is up a dime to $35.29.
On our miners list we have gains outnumbering losses 9:5. The gold miners index is up 2.4% though, as majors catch up after lagging most of the week. The silver miners index is up 2.2%, the equal weight index falls short with a 1% advance. We have 4 double digit gains against 2 double digit losses today.
All winners are up over 15%:

Mines Management Inc. (+27%)
TVI Pacific Inc.
Lincoln Mining Corporation
Tyhee Development Corp. (+15.8%)

The laggards:

Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd. (-21%)
Soho Resources Corp.

Talking about a calm sea: Seabridge gold carries along a fairly large short position (3.16 M) which would take over 10 days at the 3m average volume to cover. The stock plunged along with the other explorers and recovered $4.70 since its 52w intraday low ($19.84) on Oct 4. I guess the 'opportunity window' for shorters to lock in gains is slowly closing.

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October 31, 2011 - 6:31pm

#74

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Worthy of Halloween

Stock markets sell off and so do precious metals. October ends worthy of Halloween.

We had losses on both shores of the Atlantic today, with on Wall Street the S&P down 2.43%. Predictably the greenback gained strength.

Precious metals had been holding up in Asian trading but the slide set in on the LME. On NY, gold closed at $1715, down 1.6%. Silver was off worse with a full dollar slide to $34.24 (-3%).

This cannot but end in tears for the miners: we face losses outnumbering gains by 7:2 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 2.8% and the silver miners index sheds 3.9%. The equal weight index limits the loss to 1.66%.

Remarkably we have two double digit gainers against only one dd loss. The two lucky ones are:

Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd. (recovery from loss)
Cream Minerals Ltd. (rather a winning streak)

With a 19% loss Minco Silver Corporation is today's victim.

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November 1, 2011 - 5:40pm

#75

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A Greek drama

The Greek prime minister Papandreu caused an earthquake on stock markets announcing a referendum on EU support measures and the intended austerity program. European banks imploded and the broad stock market lost all gains realized last Thursday. Wall Steet followed suit with a 2.79% loss on the S&P. The greenback is the main winner in this Greek drama.

Precious metals had a hectic day, with gold selling off to below $1700 in London but recovering towards the close. On Nymex and NY-Globex the recovery persisted and by 4:40pm we’re at $1720, a $5 gain. Silver is off worse, losing $2 intraday to quote $33.35 by 4:40, still losing 2.6% today.

Remarkably miners escape the broad market downdraft, with gains outnumbering losses 3:2 on the GMP list. Our gold miners index is up 2.46%, the silver miners index ends flat and the equal weight index is up 0.57%. The USD denominated HUI index is down 0.3%: the combined effect of the greenback firming against the loonie and Canadian large cap miners outperforming other HUI components.

The only double digit move on the GMP list today is TVI Pacific, down 20% and giving back more than its gain last Friday.

Seabridge Gold (SEA) is up 8.78% on TSX, on AMEX (in USD) the rise is but 5.26%. I recommended covering short positions while they may still be profitable before the WE.

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November 2, 2011 - 5:12pm Response to: A Greek drama

#76

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Lickng their wounds...

Stock markets are licking their wounds after yesterday's bear raid. We had modest advances across Europe and some optimism on Wall Street with a 1.61% advance for the S&P.

Precious metals had a good day with gold continuing the recovery set in yesterday afternoon: by 4:50 we quote $1736.7, a 1% rise. Silver recovers from yesterday's slide with a 2.6% rise to $34.22.

Tail winds for our miners with gains outnumbering losses 8:3 on the GMP list. The gold miners index continues up 1.78%. The silver miners index is up 2.18% and the equal weight index gains 1.93% to gain break even again. We have four double digit gains and no dd loss today. The winners are:

Cream Minerals Ltd. (definitely a winning streak)
Eco Oro Minerals Ltd.
Bear Creek Mining Corporation
Arian Silver Corporation

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November 3, 2011 - 6:31pm

#77

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Draghi

While the next act of the Greek drama is unfolding with a likely withdrawl of the referendum, on the G20 meeting in Cannes sovereign debt is on the hidden agenda, casting a shadow on any initiative to bolster growth.
Draghi, the new president of the ECB cut the main euro interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. A surprise move that draws attention away from the G20 meeting.
European markets, especially those of the Euro area, rallied with gains of 2-3% at the close. Wall Street followed suit with a 1.88% advance on the S&P.

Gold continues its ascent with a 1.6% rise to $1764.4 today, silver follows at a distance with a 0.8% gain to $34.48. Silver is still below last Friday's close.

On our GMP list, we have gains outnumbering losses 5:2. The gold miners index is up 1.92%. The silver miners index surprises with a 2.8% gain outperforming the metal. The equal weight index is up 1.75%.

We have three double digit gains, two recoveries and a sustained rally:

Golden Minerals Company
TVI Pacific Inc.
Cream Minerals Ltd. (Crème de la crème: starts getting impressive...)

On the downside Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd. lost 16%.

In focus today: International Tower Hill Mines (ITH) is one of the laggards on our list over the long run. It must have been overvalued as I started recording the quotes. The gold grade is poor and there are no secondary metals. Viable as an open pit project, I may hope... yet rather difficult to have it approved in Alaska.

A next update is online on the blog page covering the HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver ratios and the GMP gold, silver and equal weight indices: http://gwyde.blogspot.com/p/gold-miner-pulse.html, data fresh as of today.

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November 4, 2011 - 7:32pm

#78

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Manic depressive

European markets were depressed after yesterday's manic rise. The G20 summit missed its goal as the Club-Med debt overshadowed everything. Wall Street also ended with a loss, albeit smaller: 0.63% on the S&P.

Precious metals took a breather after the run-up. Gold is down $10 to $1754 (-0.6%) Silver is off a couple of dimes to $34.13 (-1%).

Not very inspiring for the miners, though gains balanced losses on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 0.34% but the silver miners index is up 0.78%. The equal weight index is almost flat (+0.16%).

We were lucky having three double digit gains today:

Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd.
Laurion Mineral Exploration
Plato Gold Corp.

All of them penny stocks though, recovering earlier losses. AM Gold is down 13% today.

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November 4, 2011 - 9:01pm

#79

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Update

I finished updating the spreadsheet with fresh fundamental parameters as of today. (URL in opening post).

After tumbling over $10, AEM is now N° 2 on the list. Valuation has come down. Crazy Horse is still ranking 1 on behalf of its distorted data. (It's a copper explorer with some gold as byproduct.)

On the Silver miners list, the explorer-developer Mines Management is still ranking N° 1.

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November 7, 2011 - 6:22pm

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A rocky ride

A rocky ride on stock markets today. Europe started deep in the red, then losses mitigated upon the appointment of a new Greek prime minister and rumors that in Italy Berlusconi was to dismiss. Several markets broke even but sold off towards the close as Wall Street quickly lost opening gains. Losses are contained to less than 1% across Europe, with some upside exceptions, notably among the debt worry battered markets (Italy, Portugal, Greece). Wall Street rallied towards the close with a 0.63% gain on the S&P, last Friday's loss was recovered.

A great day for precious metals, with gold up $40 to $1795.6 (+2.3%) at 5pm and silver up $0.82 to $34.95 (+2.4%). Among miners of the GMP list, we have gains outnumbering losses 2:1. The gold miners index is up 2.4% in line with the metal. The silver miners index is up 3.2%, slightly better than silver bullion. The equal weight index disappoints a little with only 1.4% progress, on account of poor performance of some juniors: we have 3 double digit losses against 4 double digit gains. The lucky ones are: