Pardon moi for wanting to be lazy and just cut to the chase. But basically one could look to the last column on the spreadsheet, Ranking OVRV, and choose the highest ranking, the ones in blue, and then do your own DD from there and pick what you like. Right? Or am I missing something?
Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners
September 16, 2011 - 10:44am
#22
Pardon moi
September 16, 2011 - 10:58am
#23
I will lurk as well. Thanks
I will lurk as well. Thanks for sharing.
September 16, 2011 - 5:26pm
#25
RE: Pardon moi
The OVRV (Ore value per tonne / Mktcap per Oz) is systematically higher for explorers (as mentioned in the blog). It does not take into consideration the resource/reserve qualification, nor the scale of the reserves/resources. As a result, most producing miners have a poor score on this evaluation parameter.
You can nevertheless safely use it as a starting basis for a DD, provided you compare explorers or explorer/developers in a similar stage of exploration. I would recommend using simultaneously the composite score.
September 16, 2011 - 9:42pm
#26
Gwyde
Thank you for setting up this thread. Yesterday I was searching for that Morgan Stanley 79 page gold miner report that was posted on ZH and a couple other places. After searching the internet and realized it was removed, I returned to Turd's forum to find out that you had created the spreadsheet on google. So again, a big thank you.
Now since the HUI has held up today as I was hoping, I plan on utilizing your spreadsheet quite often
BTW, do you have the MS report or did anyone download it? Thanks in advance
Turn
September 17, 2011 - 7:15pm
#27
Morgan Stanley 79 page gold miner report
The report could not be downloaded as a PDF (I've tried to). It could not be searched nor scanned for keywords. I honestly was not aware of the fact that so many restriction could possibly be applied to a document published. You could try asking the first author Mr Simon.Kendall@rmbmorganstanley.com for an e-copy.
September 18, 2011 - 12:57am
#28
Great work
Great work Gwyde! I will continue to follow your posts. Thanks.
September 19, 2011 - 5:35pm
#29
In reverse gear
The Greek debt crisis is being poked up in the media again, with several articles getting plugged on the Yahoo home page:
Greece FM holds emergency calls with creditors- AP
No need to explain that stock markets ended their winning streak. Losses across European market places were significant. Wall Street eventually mitigated losses and major indices closed with a loss below 1%. Nasdaq did even better with a marginal 0.36% loss. Predictably, the greenback firmed as markets sold off and the Greek crisis got (too) much airplay.
Precious metals sold off (giving up on their negative stock market correlation) with gold down 1.8% to $1779 and silver off $1 or 2.5% to $39.66. PM continue to make a laugh of the ‘seasonality pattern’, having rallied full blast during the ‘summer doldrums’ and blowing off when their autumn rally is supposed to get traction.
The nascent recovery of the PM miners stays dead in the water. We have losses outnumbering gains 7:3 on our GMP list, with the gold miners index off 0.46% (Could have been worse considering the headwinds, but a few majors manage to stay out of the red on TSX.) The silver miners index is off 1.46% and the equal weight index is down 1.75%. There is indeed a soft patch among juniors though we have no double digit losses.
A hopeful not to end with: Is Gold Cheap? Who Knows? But Gold-Mining Stocks Are
September 21, 2011 - 3:09am
#30
Recovery
European stock markets recovered yesterday after Monday's slide. Having escaped the severe sell-off, Wall Street was nearly flat yesterday. Nasdaq however lost 0.86%.
Gold recovered from the beating on Monday, closing at $1805, up 1.4% but silver was up less than a dime, closing at $39.74.
Miners felt inspired by PM weakness abating: we had gains outnumbering losses 5:2 on our GMP list with the Gold Miners index up 3.4%, the silver miners index up 2.14% and the equal weight index up 1.34%. The recovery is more pronounced among majors. Penny stock Harte Gold (+13%) is the only double digit gain on the list.
Miners felt inspired by PM weakness abating: we had gains outnumbering losses 5:2 on our GMP list with the Gold Miners index up 3.4%, the silver miners index up 2.14% and the equal weight index up 1.34%. The recovery is more pronounced among majors. Penny stock Harte Gold (+13%) is the only double digit gain on the list.
September 22, 2011 - 7:31am
#31
Afternoon sell-off
European markets closed weaker yesterday, an orderly retreat that hardly compares to the panic stroke haunting Wall Street in an afternoon sell-off. Major market indices closed down over 2% (S&P) till 3% (Nasdaq).
Precious metals got hit as well, with gold retreating back below the $1800 ending at $1780, down 1.3% with wild intraday volatility. Silver weakened to $39.34, a 1% loss. Heavy headwinds for the miners of our GMP list, with losses outnumbering gains 5:2 (about the reverse of yesterday).
The gold miners index is down 1.4%, the silver miners index loses 0.84% and the equal weight index sheds 1.14%.
Precious metals got hit as well, with gold retreating back below the $1800 ending at $1780, down 1.3% with wild intraday volatility. Silver weakened to $39.34, a 1% loss. Heavy headwinds for the miners of our GMP list, with losses outnumbering gains 5:2 (about the reverse of yesterday).
The gold miners index is down 1.4%, the silver miners index loses 0.84% and the equal weight index sheds 1.14%.
Penny stock Edgewater Exploration Ltd. goes against the trend with a 15% double digit gain.
Harte Gold gives back yesterday's gain, heading south 10.5%, joined by Soho Res. down 11%.
Keep up hope with following article by John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.: A Golden Mulligan
September 22, 2011 - 7:09pm
#32
Implosion
Panic haunted stock markets around the globe today, with index losses on European markets around and sometimes in excess of 5%. Wall Street did hardly better, considering it had a worse day yesterday as well. Losses were around 3.2% on S&P and Nasdaq and even 3.5% on the Dow.
Precious metals have lost their safe haven status. Gold sold off another $44 or 2.5% to close at $1736.7. Silver imploded, shedding 8.8% to $35.89 (and acting almost like a call option on economic growth).
Bloodshed for the miners with only 5 countertrend gains on our GMP-list in a sea of losses.
The gold miners index is off 5.9%, plunging back below 1000, the silver miners index is off 7.9% (more or less in line with the metal) and the equal weight index is down 7.3%.
Chesapeake Gold Corp. and Soho Res. make double digit countertrend gains, with the latter recovering from yesterday's slide.
No less than 33 double digit losses on the list, or about 1 miner out of 3.
Golden Minerals Company -20%, Arian Silver (-16%) and Edgewater Expl. (-15.5%) are ahead on the highway to hell.
September 23, 2011 - 3:25am
#33
Gold miner pulse page
The "Gold miner pulse" blogpage: http://gwyde.blogspot.com/p/gold-miner-pulse.html has been updated.
It monitors the valuation of large cap gold and silver miners relative to their precious metals through the HUI/Gold ratio and the SIL/Silver ratio (SIL = Global X Silver Miners ETF)
There is a graph of the GMP gold and silver miners index (as listed in the valuation spreadsheet - URL in opening post) included therein.
September 23, 2011 - 6:55pm
#34
Dead man walking...
General stock markets eventually could pull themselves together to end the day with modest gains on Wall Street as well as across the Atlantic (though Europe had a rocky session posting new lows around noon).
No relief for precious metals, which got their worst decline ever. Gold fell $80 or 4.6% to $1657, while silver capitulated, imploding by $5 or nearly 14% to end at $30.93. With the collapse ongoing, you will need to pay to dispose of your silver bullion somewhen during the first week of October. 
As for the miners: the executioner felt mercy -he claimed- we were only beaten half dead. We have 7 advances in a sea of losses on the GMP list. The gold miners index is down 5% to 917, the silver miners index sheds 6.3% to 940 and the equal weight index likewise to 949.
The lucky ones today are Atlanta Gold (+13%) and Silvermex (+11%). Both penny stocks have had a very poor track record year-to-date.
We have 12 double digit losses or about 1 stock out of 8, less bad than yesterday, if that can be any consolation.
Soho Res. Corp. was butchered, down 28% today.
While the HUI index is down nearly 5% almost in line with the gold sell-off, the Global-X silver miners ETF (SIL) is down 'only' 7.25%, against almost twice that loss for the silver bullion ETF SLV.
By tomorrow, there will be an update of the spreadsheet with new fundamental data.
__________________
September 26, 2011 - 5:06pm
#35
Mood swings and volatility
Precious metals started their terrifying descent to hell on Asian markets, spiking down a full $100 to below $1550 shortly after opening on European markets. There was a swift initial recovery, but losses between $50 and $20 persisted. Gold is at $1628.8, a $28 or 1.7% loss by 4:30pm. Silver followed a similar trajectory, spiking down to $26, yet recovering almost fully to $30.81, a loss of merely 12ct or 0.4%, neglectable if you figure out where we 've been.
Most European markets recovered with Wall Street following suit with a 2.33% -2.53% gain for S&P and Dow, while Nasdaq is up 1.35%.
On our GMP list, losses outnumber gains by a narrow 3:2 margin, with some miners pouring hope from the faltering bear raid on precious metals.
The gold miners index is up 1.4%, the silver miners index adds only 0.5%, yet the equal weight index sheds 1%. There is definitely more strength among majors.
Double digit gains for:
- Trade Winds Ventures Inc. (+43% after a take-over bid by Detour Gold)
- Soho Resources Corp. (recovering partly from the 28% beating)
- Niogold Mining Corp.
Double digit losses for:
- Silvermex Resources Inc. (-17%: paying a heavy price for its countertrend gain on Friday)
- Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
- Lincoln Mining Corporation
September 27, 2011 - 5:09pm
#36
Another peculiar day
European stock markets rallied higher today, recovering further from the heavy beating last week. Wall Street started off with similar gains, but gave up much of it towards the close. Major indices are up between 1.07% (S&P) and 1.33% (Dow).
Gold recovered further but lost momentum during Nymex opening hours, quoting at $1651.6 by 4:30 pm, still up 1.4%. Silver rallied, up $1.5 or 4.8% for the day, quoting $32.29 by 4:30 pm.
On our GMP miners list, we have gains outnumbering losses 9:5. Yet the gold miners index is down 0.8% on account of some weakness among the majors (that had taken the lead yesterday). The silver miners index is up 1.05% (a rather bleak performance though with silver up 4.8%). The equal weight index is up 3% with juniors experiencing tail winds today: we have 9 double digit gains.
- Wildcat Silver Corp. (+22%)
- Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
- Mines Management Inc.
- Arian Silver Corporation
- Soho Resources Corp.
- Plato Gold Corp.
- Aura Minerals Inc.
- Century Mining Corporation
- TVI Pacific Inc. (+10%)
September 28, 2011 - 5:03pm
#37
Another PM plunge hurts miners hard
The stock market bounce proved short lived again as markets on both sides of the Atlantic turned negative. Wall Street sold off in the afternoon finally posting a +2% loss on the S&P.
Precious metals took another plunge, with gold barely quoting $1611 shortly after 4pm, down $41 or 2.5%. Bad but the silver swoon to $29.9 (off 7.4%) was even worse. The margin hikes decided last week are effective asof today.
Miners get hurt hard, with losses outnumbering gains 8:1 on the GMP list.
The gold miners index dives 3.3% to 892, the silver miners index sheds 5% to 907 and the equal weight index is off 4.9% to 921.
We have 14 double digit losses on the GMP list and not a single double digit gain. Following miners lost over 12%:
- Atlanta Gold Inc. (-15.8%)
- Scorpio Gold Corporation
- Arian Silver Corporation
- Impact Silver Corp.
- US Gold Corporation
- Esperanza Silver Corporation
- Sabina Gold & Silver Corporation (-12.7%)
September 28, 2011 - 5:08pm
#38
Thanks for all of your analysis.........
How about Cream (CRMXF) today?!!? It has weathered this storm quite well.
September 28, 2011 - 5:25pm
#39
Cream's got the goods.
Cream's got the goods.
September 28, 2011 - 9:57pm
#40
Agreed on Cream....
Thanks to EricO, BoG, and Gwyde for getting this gem on my radar.
September 28, 2011 - 10:16pm
#41
Miners going down....but
Yes, its hard to watch double digit declines... but theres alot to analyze in what we're seeing. I own Scorpio Mining (silver mining) so I'll mention this miner. (not to be confused with scorpio gold)
If you look at the chart (SPM.TO) you will see that last year ,from its base ,it was 60 cents !!....and went Soaring hyperbolic to a 4 bagger at the 2.40 top area. Thats a nice move but also a parabolic curve...and here comes the correction now....So far it has made a 'low' around 1.60
This price level is Still too high for my bargain seeking eyes...the weekly 50 MA is around 1.35 (I like that price point better) the left shoulder zone runs from a range of 1.60 to 1.20 In this moment of fear gripping the miners markets as well as severe manipulation...I'm reluctant to buy more at the top of this range (1.60) I'd rather see if Scorpio will drop another leg down toward 1.30 and even then, sometimes thats where the engineers slam it down more to shock everyone out...so maybe a good stink bid would be 1.20 ....and guess what....from a top at 2.40 to a 50% fibonacci correction gives us a target of 1.20. and a 50% fib from 60 cents to 2.40 gives us the 1.50 area (1.50 - 1.20 )
Scorpio mining is one of my best stocks. I got in at .61 last year. I didnt sell anything at the top...... and Ive been waiting for this, the first real correction to bring it back down to the buy zone at 1.50 - 1.35- 1.20
This is normal and accurate technical analysis. A strong stock might not make it to the 50% fib ,it might hold at the 38% area which might be closer to 1.45 as a bottom area.
So while we see the carnage happening across the board ,and it all looks horrifying....the technical movement of prices is still within normal parameters and the soaring upsurges we saw last year are giving it back now in a correction. However engineered and manipulated the slam down is propelled by the wizard behind the curtain could make these corrections more violent ,and it looks like were seeing this. a year of gains evaporating in a few weeks if not days. but the technical price points are falling in line ok....and finding the target zones to buy remains a viable strategy . I want to keep studying the charts and finding bargain targets.
Comments for "Valuation Metrics of Canadian Gold and Silver Miners"FREE NEWSLETTER
Keep up with the latest TF Metals Report news. Subscribe to "This Week in Turdville" today!
Feed The Turd
Hat Tips - Comments
Recent Comments
This Month's Leaderboard
| Username | Hat Tips Earned | |
|---|---|---|
 | Mr. Fix | 2224 |
 | The Watchman | 2141 |
 | ancientmoney | 2040 |
 | Pining 4 the Fjords | 1761 |
 | JakeBlues | 1731 |
 | AlexCojones | 1601 |
 | Gold Dog | 1455 |
 | Texas Sandman | 1445 |
 | Bollocks | 1337 |
| SouthernCross | 1218 |
Most European markets were up today (with France -dragged down by two banking majors- and Italy the main exceptions). Wall Street followed suit, with gains about 0.6%, the winning streak is again extended.
Precious metals ultimately recovered from yesterday's slide, though both gold and silver ended well off the highs of the day. Gold quotes at $1811.7, up 1.2% and silver at $40.68, up 1.9%. Miners end their five day losing streak with gains outnumbering losses 9:4 on the GMP list. The gold miners index is up 1.1% and silver miners are up 1.4%. The equal weight index does better with a 2.24% gain. We have some strength among juniors with four double digit gains:
Aura Minerals Inc. (T.ORA) is the only double digit loser today.
Miners slightly underperform the metals.
__________________
Gwyde