Exit Strategy

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August 28, 2011 - 7:16pm
#1
simple
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Exit Strategy

Hello All,

I am long time reader coming from the old website, first time poster. I hold only physical PM's. GOLD/SILVER at 2:1 by value.

Like to hear opinions of people here about there's Exit Strategy's.  I will outline mine in points:

- Pinpoint exit moment (can be a challenge if you like to take the max from the cycle)

- Convert PM's to local Fiat

- Convert Fiat to Realestate

- Leave off Realestate (rental) and reinvest surpluses back in to the GOLD/Realestate cycle

How others see the future, what is your reason for riding the PM's?

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August 28, 2011 - 7:20pm
#2
ouchtouch
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Depending on the tax

Depending on the tax situation, might be better off using the PM as collateral for a loan to buy income producing property.  Expect confiscatory taxes on PM "profits" to get even worse in the future.  Posting as collateral is not a taxable event.

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August 28, 2011 - 7:26pm
#3
Vypuero
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selling for cash is another option

though if gold/silver back our new money tax would be eliminated.  I think that will happen before we are through

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August 28, 2011 - 10:59pm
#4
Brotha Bob
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Exit?

What exit, gold and silver will be money. The exit is when fiat money dies.

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August 29, 2011 - 1:47am Response to: Depending on the tax
#5
simple
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ouchtouch wrote:Depending on

ouchtouch wrote:

Depending on the tax situation, might be better off using the PM as collateral for a loan to buy income producing property.  Expect confiscatory taxes on PM "profits" to get even worse in the future.  Posting as collateral is not a taxable event.

Interesting point, not sure how it is in USA, in Australia we get taxed on income. Earning fiat from PM's do not get taxed any different. You can put some 'spin' to it and have 50% reduction in TAX on this asset. Using as loan collateral will involve paying bank interest charges. That is a drawback.

@ Vypuero : Interesting thought. I read about nations offering to create new currency for world to trade on based on basket of assets: PM's, OIL, Weat, Energy. If those are all included I wonder what will happen to the tax on those items?

@ Brotha Bob : This is some wishfull thinking. Are you planing just sit an wait for it? Gold/Silver greatly fluctuates in VALUE (not price), you may miss some opportunities to make some more of this metal :)

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August 29, 2011 - 11:43am Response to: ouchtouch wrote:Depending on
#6
wamozart
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physical, miners, or SLV

Are most people here using SLV or other ETF's?  Or only physical and miners?  I am a newbie to the form and need advice

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August 29, 2011 - 5:18pm
#7
survivalwstyle
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newb advice

IMVFHO buy the phyZZ 1st. esp. if you have none now. miners 2nd, check the thread. most useful information on the web can be found there...of course you should do your own research tOO, but amazing advice on companies with huge potential.

my exit wiLL be when we are multiples of cuRRent spot prices higher and the wife wants to buy that dream house with the pOOl and the yard for the groms... hoping to be able to trade a few 100 oz of Ag or some 50 peso's straight up ;o)

remember phyZZ in your hand is as close to "money" as you are ever goNNa get.

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August 30, 2011 - 6:47am
#8
Brotha Bob
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@ Simple

@ simple - you don't see the death of fiat coming? I do. I buy and hold physical for that reason.

I do invest in PM's via other vehicles. I turn my paper profits into physical.

The end game will be the death of fiat money. Countries can not print fiat without debasing the buying power of their currency. Government bails out, debt and deficits furthers the debasement. Look at Ireland, Greece, or the state of Illinois or California, as examples.

Once one currency goes down the drain, they all will; be it the $, Euro, Pound, Yen. Dark times are coming and holding physical will be your best defense.

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August 30, 2011 - 10:02am
#9
NCdirtdigger
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exit strategy

I hope to be buried with my metals. 

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August 30, 2011 - 3:25pm Response to: physical, miners, or SLV
#10
Old Major
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If you don't own any silver

If you don't own any silver or silver related investments, owning physical bullion is the best place to start.  If you don't have a secure place to store it and want to stick to paper silver, I'd recommend PSLV over SLV. 

oh.... as for my Exit Strategy....    I plan to hold for 20-30 years or until the fiat era ends and we return to the gold standard again. 

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August 30, 2011 - 3:57pm
#11
SilverBoy
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My advice

simple wrote:

- Pinpoint exit moment (can be a challenge if you like to take the max from the cycle)

- Convert PM's to local Fiat

- Convert Fiat to Realestate

- Leave off Realestate (rental) and reinvest surpluses back in to the GOLD/Realestate cycle

You want to sell gold and buy realestate as an investment? I think that it will be a huge waste of money. Realestates won't be in bull market for the next 30-40 years. If you want to buy realestate, buy it now. Inflation will pay your mortage.

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August 30, 2011 - 4:24pm
#12
ouchtouch
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CEF is another good one, it

CEF is another good one, it is 50/1 by weight silver to gold, roughly 50/50 by dollar value.  There is a sister fund that is all silver that trades in Toronto, and an all gold sister, GTU.  All run and largely owned by the Spicer family, which founded CEF 40 years ago.  Definitely own physical first if you can, e.g. pre-1965 US coins.

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August 30, 2011 - 5:03pm
#13
Brotha Bob
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@ wamozart

I can not speak for everyone, but I have miners, EFT's, physical and paper. And, of course, physical.

I only trade options on GLD and SLV. Just a couple and not a large investment. Leverage can make these very profitable. I would not take a direct position in either. Central fund is another story.

As far as paper PM's, I have switched to the mini contracts. Got tired of getting stopped out.due to volatility.

The miners have not shown a great return, but will at some point.

Why limit yourself? Spread your investments. After you have stacked some phyzz.

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August 30, 2011 - 8:52pm
#14
simple
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If history will repeat itself

If history will repeat itself and it always does so with some twist added, Silver will rise in value and then decline with overcorrection. As measured against other assets type: Gold, Oil, Land, RealEstate, DOW, I have no care for FIAT.

My plan is to gain from fluctuations. I plan to ride the gold/silver wave, than jump off at the right time to catch say Real Estate or DOW rising against gold/silver. Gain from this cycle and them move on to the other that come up next. I do not and will not hold FIAT (my current FIAT holdings well under 20% from my assets value).

Above goal requires well defined 'exit point', at which - value of PM's have risen beyond reasonable against other asset type.

For example I measure RealEstate value in oz of Gold and Silver. Mesured in Gold: in 2008 mid level house was worth 400oz, now it's 300oz, minimal it was ever in 1960 (I think) was 100oz. So in say 3-4 years from now I can exchange my holdings for four times more houses I could in 2008. And I will do so. That is up until "Bubble of  2008" will repeat itself and I will sell my real estate holdings for gold gaining 3 or 4 folds.

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August 30, 2011 - 9:13pm Response to: If history will repeat itself
#15
Brotha Bob
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Smart man, Simple

Simple, you are a smart man.

But, I don't think anyone, right now, can pick the top to the PM bull.

I would keep checking those ratios, and make a move when you see it.

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August 30, 2011 - 9:13pm Response to: If history will repeat itself
#16
Brotha Bob
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Smart man, Simple

Simple, you are a smart man.

But, I don't think anyone, right now, can pick the top to the PM bull.

I would keep checking those ratios, and make a move when you see it.

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May God Help Us All

But, what do I know?

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September 4, 2011 - 3:11am
#17
simple
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Crosslink to GOLD

Crosslink to GOLD forum: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2275/exit-strategy

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September 5, 2011 - 12:47am
#18
barefooter
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Local production will be key

I'm heavily invested in physical right now, and plan to hold a good amount of it for some time to come. However, I do have a plan to diversify in the future, although I'll always hold some phys. As energy becomes increasingly expensive, local production of everything is going to be key. Investing in local ways to produce food, energy, tools, or other goods locally will be a very good way to go in the coming years to insure you have income. It will also have the benefit of strengthening your local community, and that's really what's important here, not getting rich. I'm currently waiting to buy farmland until I can get in at a much cheaper price on land that is no currently classified as farmland. In many parts of the country there are very productive soils that have been turned into the insanity that is suburbia. When the soccer moms can't afford the gas for the SUVs any more and suburbia finally crashes, this land will once again be cheap enough to farm. This will be good timing as the cities will be crawling with hungry people.

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September 5, 2011 - 3:06pm
#19
Jrandom
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Why not trade physical for

Why not trade physical for real estate? Then you don't have to pay taxes on the gains in physical (because who is buying what?  Are they buying physical or you buying the property?)

According to Mike Maloney (Goldsilver.com and Rich Dad, Poor Dad), the coming wealth transfer is going to be between the people who have physical and those who don't (but have assets that they are going to fire-sale to get physical).  James Turk and Jim Rickards discuss this in their recent  interview ( http://www.goldmoney.com/video/rickards-turk-interview.html ) that Gold and Silver don't increase their purchasing power, they just have a wealth transfer effect.  (I love how Turk gives Rickards the stink eye when Rickards says he believes the central banks have the gold that they claim they do).

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September 10, 2011 - 3:14pm Response to: Why not trade physical for
#20
ouchtouch
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Jrandom, in the USA that

Jrandom, in the USA that would require a change in the tax law.  Trading PM for real estate is a taxable barter transaction under current law.  Since a deed does no good if it is not recorded, hard to hide this type of deal from the tax man.  There is no black market in land.  Of course, many are counting on a world where the law has changed or there is no IRS around to collect.

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September 11, 2011 - 4:45am
#21
beatlebum19
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@ simple

For example I measure RealEstate value in oz of Gold and Silver. Mesured in Gold: in 2008 mid level house was worth 400oz, now it's 300oz, minimal it was ever in 1960 (I think) was 100oz. So in say 3-4 years from now I can exchange my holdings for four times more houses I could in 2008. And I will do so. That is up until "Bubble of  2008" will repeat itself and I will sell my real estate holdings for gold gaining 3 or 4 folds.

You should read investor's guide to gold and silver by Mike Maloney. He measures gold and silver the same way. He say's when the time is right you should be able to purchase a median family home for about 250 ounces of silver!!!!! that's right not gold silver. He believes looking at silver and gold in dollars is a waste of time and not a good barometor, he says you should compare it to other things of value like real estate. He also say's he's not a PM bug but a cycles guy, and the right move is to trade your stack for real estate when the time is right. For the price of one house today in fiat you will be able to own 12-15 for example. I think a lot of these people on here forget once the shit hits the fan, and we are on the gold/silver standard again that means the price of silv and gold will be fixed so there is no point to holding onto it. Also when things correct themselves they ALWAYS 100 percent of the time over correct. So if you hold on too long you will lose value.

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