I give it 2 weeks before other countries start to yank their bullion deposits and that will completely unravel the gold bubble

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August 22, 2011 - 12:03am

Diamond

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I give it 2 weeks before other countries start to yank their bullion deposits and that will completely unravel the gold bubble

Ok, I am NOT a troll. what I pasted in the subject is from mike ruppert's collapse net.com

He wrote that in his latest weekly commentary. Ruppert continues to claim how he has been more than 90% right in his predictions. Though I don't believe gold is in a bubble at all, I fear that Ruppert is on to something. What does he mean by "completely unravel". Is he referring to paper gold, like GLD, UGL, etc.? He's been right in the past about his stock market collapse predictions, as well. I hope that when the broader markets collapse, that the miners don't go down with it, and stay down.

Who thinks what Mike Ruppert is saying about countries yanking their bullion will really unravel the gold "bubble?"

I look forward to reading your comments...

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August 22, 2011 - 12:54am

Strongsidejedi

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collapsenet and Ruppert

When Mike Ruppert posted his predictions, my initial impression was that he was serious, but also overreacting.

Well, I don't think he's overreacting.

Listen to the King World News interview of Eric Sprott posted over this past weekend (check the Broadcast tab).

Eric King asks Mr. Sprott about the sourcing of the gold and silver bullion purchases that Sprott Asset Management does. The issue is that if Sprott is picking up the size of his purchases and if others are picking up, someone must be taking less delivery because there is a fixed rate of mining and no way to substantially alter the rate of mining.

August 22, 2011 - 3:10am

Red Pill

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i was watching to one of his

i was watching to one of his latest videos, he's a bit full of himself with all that "say my name" and name-dropping shit isnt he? you don't see the class acts like Jim Willie doing that and begging for recognition.

lets face it none of us really know what this all means, its all speculation, so i wouldn't lose too much sleep over any one person's calamitous predictions personally.

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August 23, 2011 - 7:38pm

Brotha Bob

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Gold is not a bubble

Gold is not a bubble. It is just everything, including fiat, is worth less or worthless.

The paper markets might unravel, as stated above. If gold is traded in the paper markets on a 100 to 1 basis, then it could unravel. What would happened to the spot price of actual physical? " one of these days Alice. one of these days. Pow! Straight to the moon"

If the is only one ounce of actual physical supporting 100 ounces of paper gold, and everyone decides they want physical, the prices will rocket so much that the past few weeks will seem flat. You have to understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. Always trust what you hold and no a promise to be paid.

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August 23, 2011 - 7:55pm

Mike

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Things usually

takes a long time to unravel.

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August 23, 2011 - 8:46pm

Dr Durden

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Oh, the bitter irony.

Oh, the bitter irony. Ruppert, a very broken man, trying to make everyone who's not as broken as him feel guilty for not recognizing how everything he sees is......broken.

Anyone that needs to tell the world how "correct" they are about anything is obviously cracked. He should be in St Tropez with the trillions he's made shorting everything under the sun. But no, he can't even afford his rent in a crappy apartment.

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August 24, 2011 - 12:33am Response to: Oh, the bitter irony.

Desert Fox

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Title misses the punch-line

Title states,,,,,,

I give it 2 weeks before other countries start to yank their bullion deposits and that will completely unravel the gold bubble.

======================================================================

Gold is not in a bubble.

Paper Gold is in unlimited supply but as physical is removed from the pool {if that indeed happens} physical will be the play.

=====================================================================

Re-post: Regarding "Paper" Margin Hikes

The massive margin increase announced is demonstrating exactly what these paper markets always have been. They understate the real world value of the physical product by valuing it using margin opinion, not real physical supply and demand. If the markets get out of whack because too many players move away from holding "American Style" paper wealth and want the real thing,,,,,,, then the paper markets adjust by reverting to cash settlement using the "understated opinion price".

None of the recent commentary touches on the fact that the shorts also face the same huge margin increases. In reality, the move is a precursor to forcing cash settlement if needed. Once a crisis threatens to shut down paper trading, cash settlement liquidation is enforced. This is why the shorts need to carry 150%++ MARGIN to make sure of cash settlement (not physical settlement). The fact that the longs must also have the same margin does make the weaker players fold their hand. But still, many longs will stay for the end.

This is very much what is coming for our gold market, worldwide. Yes, just as in palladium (if it fails), long paper gold traders will smile at their big cash gains (if they can get them). But their smiles will fade as they notice how their $1,000 / ounce settlement only represented the "margin opinion" of real physical value. In the aftermath of a paper gold market shutdown they will buy a 1/10 ounce for that $1,000, if lucky!

In today's world, it's the physical traders that hold all the cards and will gain the most wealth for their future. The value is there today for anyone that want's it. The paper markets we know and love will die before they can ever equal the real value that's coming for gold.

To close:

The true physical gold demand in our world today is poorly understood and poorly calculated. While physical trades are documented as well as possible, little weight is given to the countless investors that own gold using the international margin/deposit paper markets. Yes, most of these players don't have the "here - with - all" to make good on their gold purchases by taking delivery 100%. Mostly they play the "gold price" in a paper game rigged against their ever seeing full value.

But if even 10% of this ---"I own real gold in paper form but haven't paid for it yet and have the cash to do it "--- demand was to surface outside the futures related arena? This demand would take all the supply available in an "adjusted" post paper gold world. Only then will the real demand equation be understood. Only then will physical gold trade for it's fair value as a world currency outside official paper gold control. That day is coming for the owners of real gold.

You see,,,,,, any excess supply would mostly flow to filling those that have contracted for it and have something the world cannot live without! OIL!

In time the real value of gold will be represented by real demand not subject to currency supply. Not the unlimited paper supply that values gold for political ends.

To reword Another's strange post: One gold is coming my friends, one gold!

August 24, 2011 - 11:51pm

Diamond

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"it may hit $2000 an ounce, but not much further."

I got the quote below from a commenter on Max Keiser's site, in response to John Embry's KWN interview, where he says gold is going to $2,500. Does the following quote make sense? $2,000 as an indefinite lid on gold price?

"Don’t forget that the higher the price of gold/silver, the more will be produced by miners around the globe.

Here in Canada, gold mining companies are speeding up exploration of new mines and ramping up production of existing/older mines. Mines that were unprofitable at $500 an ounce are hugely profitable at $1800 an ounce.

Therefore, as the price stays high, more supply of gold will come into production and flood the market, keeping a lid on the price. Yes, it may hit $2000 an 0unce, but I really don’t see it going much further."

The folks who got into gold at $500 are laughing all the way to the bank. The folks just getting in now should be very careful and not get too exuberant.

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August 24, 2011 - 11:58pm Response to: "it may hit $2000 an ounce, but not much further."

Diamond

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The folks who got into gold at $500 are laughing all the way

Oops, those last two lines were part of the quote, too:

"The folks who got into gold at $500 are laughing all the way to the bank. The folks just getting in now should be very careful and not get too exuberant."

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August 25, 2011 - 3:02am

#10

Babstar

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Go with the flow

Diamond, did you consider the "stock to flow" ratio of gold? FOFOA has a great essay on this: The Shoeshine Boy.

From the post:

FOFOA, The Shoeshine Boy wrote:

So why won't it happen with gold?

The obvious difference is that gold is an element. Absent significant transmutation or extraterrestrial trade, the number of gold atoms on Earth is fixed. All humans can do is move them around for our own convenience - in other words, collect them. So we can call gold a "collectible."

Because it cannot be produced, the price of a collectible is arbitrary. It is just a consequence of the prices that people who want to own it assign to it. Obviously, the collectible will end up in the hands of those who value it highest.

Since the global bullion inventory is 150,000 tons, and 2500 tons are mined every year, it is easy to do a little division and calculate a current "debasement rate" of 1.66% for gold.

But this is wrong. Gold mining is not debasement in the same sense as condom production, which does not deplete any fixed supply of potential condoms. In fact, it only takes a mild idealization of reality to eliminate gold mining entirely.

Gold is mined from specific deposits, whose extent and extraction cost geologists can estimate in advance. In financial terms, gold "in the ground" can be modeled as a call option. Ownership of X ounces of unmined gold which will cost $Y per ounce to extract is equivalent to a right to buy X ounces of bullion at $Y per ounce.

That is a great essay, many things to consider.

August 27, 2011 - 1:51pm

#11

Vypuero

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Supply just cannot ramp up to have a significant effect

Gold production takes a long time to ramp up. Even then, the supply is only a few % increase every year. Even were mining to double, this would barely effect the supply if demand were to dramatically rise, which is clearly happening.

August 27, 2011 - 3:02pm Response to: The folks who got into gold at $500 are laughing all the way

#12

R man J

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$2000 aN OunCe--Ha ANd not mCh futhEr :)

The problem with that statement is the US dollar buys 1/1830 of an ounce of gold. Is he saying that no matter how much QE and devaluation of the dollar takes place that the USD will ALWAYS buy at least 1/2000 of an ounce of gold?

1/2500 of an ounce is coming within months, followed by 1/7000 ounce. THE DOLLAR IS IN A BUBBLE...IT BUYS TOO MUCH GOLD!!!!!

August 28, 2011 - 12:53am

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Jasper Puddlemaker

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The "Experts"...

One of the issues with bull markets is, the longer they run, the longer the list of so-called "experts" grows. Most are just opportunists; people who jump on the bandwagon and bill themselves as "experts" even though they are not. My own strategy for dealing with the growing parade of "experts" is to focus my attention on those who have been in the gold bull, and have called it correctly, from the beginning. That is the only sure way, for me anyway, that I can weed out the crap and BS. So I can't comment on Rupert specifically because I don't pay any attention to him. For anything gold or silver, my go-to authorities are Sinclair, Turk, Embry, Sprott, and the people close to those guys. None of them thinks gold is in a "bubble."

August 28, 2011 - 5:16am Response to: The "Experts"...

#14

Red Pill

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My own strategy for dealing

My own strategy for dealing with the growing parade of "experts" is to focus my attention on those who have been in the gold bull, and have called it correctly, from the beginning. That is the only sure way, for me anyway, that I can weed out the crap and BS. So I can't comment on Rupert specifically because I don't pay any attention to him. For anything gold or silver, my go-to authorities are Sinclair, Turk, Embry, Sprott, and the people close to those guys. None of them thinks gold is in a "bubble."

Exactly. Past record is all important. I'll add Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Jim Willie and of course Turd is an honorary addition to the list for while I don't know how long Turd has been saying this (I suspect it's long enough to be included anyway) even if it isn't, his phenomenal short term prowess more than makes up for it.

If you search the internet you can easily find anyone, saying anything that yo want to believe to back up your own bias, at times like this the only thing that is important is the credibility of the source, and that is defined by the accuracy of their position and predictive records, and their own current financial positions due to following their own advice.

everything else is just noise to be tuned out.

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August 28, 2011 - 2:32pm Response to: My own strategy for dealing

#15

Jasper Puddlemaker

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Yes...

Yes, along the way a few come along who should be added to the list of "good guys" in the metals world. Turd is one of them. This site is far and away the best forum for discussion on anything metals related, and Turd is a sharp technician. I left out a few names, and for sure Schiff and Willie were there early. Dines was there, Puplava was there. Sometimes I think about the gold conferences I attended back around 2001-2004. It was a bit lonely back then, but I smile when I think of the "believers" who attended and spoke at those conferences. It has been a long road.

August 28, 2011 - 4:42pm

#16

Stormdancer

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Doug Casey, Adam Hamilton and

Doug Casey, Adam Hamilton and Scott Wright ..... :)

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August 31, 2011 - 3:46am

#17

donpaulo

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Michael Ruppert, this is the

Michael Ruppert,

this is the guy who predicated a market crash as a result of japan's tsunami and its effect on valuations/quarterly dividends. bzzt, try again.

in that same report he said that his "source" in Japan didn't have access to the net, yet I was reading his report FROM Japan. Pure comedy :) and this was from a guy who is "selling" prepare yourself information. Clearly his prep source wasn't prepared. bzzt try again.

Nassim Taleb will tell you that prognostication is a waste of time. I tend to believe professor Taleb on this count.

Ruppert clearly falls into the category of "forecaster" which is "a waste of time"

anyone who says "expert" like Mauldin or "predict %" in their buy line wants your subscription fee.

Don't get me wrong I enjoy listening to Ruppert but I am not going to buy anything he is selling nor am I going to make financial decisions based upon his "colon" because that appears to be where his sources are from.

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August 31, 2011 - 3:37pm

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Dr Durden

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If Mike wanted to get

If Mike wanted to get something correct, he'd forecast his own raging case of lung cancer. Have you guys seen "Collapse"? He goes through cancer sticks like he's trying to win a contest.

He has extensive knowledge on the petrol dollar and drug trafficking, no doubt. I could use some schooling on it from an insider because I'm not that informed. But his ego is so bloated and his self-esteem is so fragile that he really should just stop for awhile and work on getting himself prepared.

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